Baltic Dry Index. 1179 -13 Brent Crude 64.54
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been
swimming naked.
Warren Buffett.
Well that didn’t take long.
This morning we are spoilt for choice in bad news. Goldilocks is getting ready
to move out of the IC ward and down to the basement mortuary. The tide is going
out again.
As expected Russia ignored
HMG’s ultimatum and midnight deadline, simply denying any role in the nerve
agent attack on the Russian double agent and his daughter, and asking for a
sample of the alleged nerve agent used. Her Majesty’s Government must now put
up or shut up, with shut up out of the question. Global trade will now get yet another headwind.
A gaggle of Wall Street’s
Great Vampire Squids, see US unemployment falling below 3 percent ahead, with
the Fed forced to raise their key interest rates 8 times by the end of 2019. At
a minimum that’s an increase of another 2 percent. The multi-decade long bull market in bonds is
over.
Inflation pressure surfaced
in China in the first 2 months of 2018, increasing the likelihood of China tightening
too.
In America President Trump
brutally tweeted and fired and humiliated his Secretary of State, replacing him with the
head of the CIA, a hard right American War Party warrior. Iran’s nuclear Peace
Treaty will now be torn up, a meeting with North Korea far less likely, and
generally a far less cooperative, consensus US foreign policy. The Great Global Trump Trade War is about to
hit overdrive. Collateral damage, a willingness of top quality talent to work
for President Trump.
All in all, the stock bears
are spoilt for choice this morning.
"It's better to hang out with people better than you. Pick
out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you'll drift in that
direction."
Warren Buffett.
March 14, 2018 / 12:52 AM /
Updated 5 hours ago
Britain and Russia brace for showdown as deadline expires for nerve attack explanation
LONDON
(Reuters) - Britain braced for a showdown with Russia on Wednesday after a
midnight deadline set by Prime Minister Theresa May expired without an
explanation from Moscow about how a Soviet-era nerve toxin was used to strike
down a former Russian double agent.
The United States, European Union and NATO supported Britain after May
said it was “highly likely” that Russia was behind the poisoning of Sergei
Skripal and his daughter with Novichok, a nerve agent developed by the Soviet
military.
Russia, which denied any involvement, said it was not responding to
May’s ultimatum until it received samples of the nerve agent, effectively
challenging Britain to show what sanctions it would impose against Russian
interests.
“Moscow will not respond to London’s ultimatum until it receives samples
of the chemical substance,” Russia’s embassy in London said. “Any threat to
take punitive measures against Russia will meet with a response.”
Britain could call on Western allies for a coordinated response, freeze
the assets of Russian business leaders and officials, limit their access to
London’s financial centre, expel diplomats and even launch targeted cyber
attacks.
It may also cut back participation in the soccer World Cup, which Russia
is hosting in June and July.
More
Asian markets pull back, led by banking and tech stocks
Published: Mar 13, 2018 11:46 p.m. ET
The global pullback in equity markets continued in Asia on Wednesday, where
stocks opened lower across the board, following the firing of U.S. Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson.In China, better-than-expected economic data raised the specter that the central bank might be forced to raise interest rates to keep growth from overheating.
Chinese industrial-production and fixed-asset investment data showed the economy grew much faster than expected in the first two months of 2018. That came after consumer prices unexpectedly rose in February during the Lunar New Year holiday.
“We feel that inflation is going to pick up and there will be some modest price pressure,” said Irene Cheung, senior foreign exchange strategist for Asia at ANZ.
That may force the People’s Bank of China to raise its key seven-day policy rate this year, she added. “That would have a slight dampening effect on the economy overall,” she said.
Chinese stocks SHCOMP, -0.55% were down about 0.5% and Hong Kong equities HSI, -1.40% were more than 1% lower.
Financial and tech stocks, key soft points for the U.S. market on Tuesday, lagged behind in Hong Kong also.
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -0.96% finished the morning session down 1% after the yen weakened and then rebounded overnight to leave it at around ¥106.50 per U.S. dollar. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting, released Wednesday, showed that some board members warned the central bank should keep a close eye on unexpected side effects from the current monetary policy.
Financial stocks were also hit by falling bond yields; their recent gains have raised hopes of higher earnings for banks and insurers.
More
U.S. Unemployment Headed Below 3% Unless Fed Acts to Slow Growth
By Rich Miller
U.S. unemployment is primed to fall significantly further and could drop
below 3 percent for the first time since 1953, the year central bank chief
Jerome Powell was born.
That’s according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan
Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Moody’s Analytics Inc. With an already
solid economy set to receive a double dose of fiscal stimulus, they argue that
a drop in joblessness from its 17-year low of 4.1 percent in February is all
but inevitable.
And they say that a break below 3 percent is a distinct possibility --
even with the return of some workers to the labor force -- especially if
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell doesn’t do more to slow the economy down.
“We have unemployment at 3.25 percent by the end of 2019,” Jan Hatzius,
Goldman’s chief economist, said in an email. “A decline below 3 percent at some
point is obviously possible.”
Such a drop would return unemployment to levels not seen in 65 years,
when millions of Americans were out the labor force serving in the military
during the Korean War. A job market that tight would be a boon for workers and
for President Donald Trump.
But it would pose a quandary for monetary policy makers who are already
beginning to worry about the risk of the economy overheating after Trump and
Congress agreed to cut taxes and increase government spending.
To head it off, the central bank will raise interest rates four times
each in 2018 and 2019, significantly more than Fed officials and investors
currently expect, the Goldman, JPMorgan and Moody’s economists predicted. Peter
Hooper, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, said there’s
even a risk the Fed could end up increasing rates five times this year.
More
Gundlach Says 10-Year Treasury Above 3% Would Drive Down Stocks
By John Gittelsohn“My idea that the S&P would go down on the year would become an extraordinarily strong conviction as the 10-year starts to make an accelerated move above 3 percent,” Gundlach said Tuesday during a webcast for his $51.8 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed Tuesday at about 2.84 percent, down from their four-year high of 2.95 percent on Feb. 21. The S&P 500 Index closed at 2,765 on Tuesday, up 3.4 percent this year.
Gundlach, whose Los Angeles-based firm oversaw about $118 billion as of Dec.
31, said the chances of 10-year Treasury yields exceeding 3 percent are
increasing amid rising U.S. deficits and the Federal Reserve reducing its
balance sheet while raising its benchmark short-term interest rate.
Among Gundlach’s other comments:
- The U.S. deficit is likely to exceed $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2019 because of a combination of tax cuts and rising entitlement expenses. “It’s going to be more like $1.2 or $1.3 trillion,” he said.
- Leading economic indicators show no signs of a recession within the next 12 months.
- Core inflation is likely to increase above the Fed’s 2 percent target.
- Be prepared for further weakening of the dollar. “The odds are good that the next big move in the dollar is lower,” he said.
More
March 13, 2018 / 9:01 PM /
Updated an hour ago
Trump eyes tariffs on up to $60 billion Chinese goods; tech, telecoms, apparel targeted
WASHINGTON/BEIJING
(Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking to impose tariffs on up to
$60 billion (42.90 billion pounds) of Chinese imports and will target the
technology and telecommunications sectors, two people who had discussed the
issue with the Trump administration said on Tuesday.
A third source who had direct knowledge of the administration’s thinking
said the tariffs, associated with a “Section 301” intellectual property
investigation, under the 1974 U.S. Trade Act begun in August last year, could
come “in the very near future.”
While the tariffs would be chiefly targeted at information technology,
consumer electronics and telecoms, they could be much broader and the list
could eventually run to 100 products, this person said.
The White House declined to comment on the size or timing of any move.
More
Finally, crypto and EV
news. Volkswagen plans to go heavily into EV production, but is still going to
keep diesel engines, while Tesla bets on neodymium permanent magnet EVs. But
would you trust EV claims from VW, after their callous indifference in foisting
fraudulent killer diesel engines on an unsuspecting and trusting public?
Google to Ban Cryptocurrency, Initial Coin Offering Ads
By Mark Bergen
Updated on 14 March 2018, 05:23 GMT
Google will ban online advertisements promoting cryptocurrencies and
initial coin offerings starting in June, part of a broader crackdown on the
marketing of a new breed of high-risk financial products.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google announced the decision Wednesday night in an
update to its policy, which says it will begin to block ads for
"cryptocurrencies and related content." Facebook Inc. took a similar
step in January, leaving the two largest web-ad sellers out of reach of the
nascent digital-currency sector.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, pared an advance of
about 2 percent after Google’s announcement, trading little changed at $9,099
as of 1:04 p.m. in Hong Kong. Rival coins Ripple and Ether also pared gains.
More
VW will build EVs in 16 factories in zero-emission push
Mueller: New EV coming 'virtually every month'
March 13, 2018 @ 6:30 am
BERLIN -- Volkswagen Group said it will expand production of electric
cars to 16 factories worldwide through the end of 2022.
The automaker also said it has selected partners to provide battery
cells and related technology worth around 20 billion euros ($25 billion) for EV
projects in Europe and China, its two biggest markets. A deal for North America
will follow shortly, VW said.
VW plans to produce as many as 3 million EVs a year by 2025 across its
12 brands, which include the VW marque, as well as Audi, Porsche, Skoda and
Seat.
Starting next year, the group will roll out a new EV "virtually
every month," CEO Matthias Mueller said at the company's annual press
conference here on Tuesday. "This is how we intend to offer the largest
fleet of electric vehicles in the world."
VW aims to launch 80 new EVs across the group by 2025 and offer an
electric version of each of its 300 group models by 2030.
VW brand is setting up the I.D. subbrand for battery-powered vehicles.
The first model will be the Neo hatchback that goes on sale in 2020. Audi is
set to begin deliveries later this year of the all-electric E-tron crossover.
Pressure has intensified on Volkswagen to overhaul its lineup. Its
diesel-cheating scandal, which erupted in September 2015, sparked a backlash
over the technology, including potential urban driving bans. Diesel is key to
efforts to meet tighter environmental targets because of its fuel efficiency,
even though it emits smog-causing nitrogen oxides. Volkswagen reaffirmed its
backing for the technology with Mueller calling it "part of the
solution," even as Toyota pulls diesel cars from its lineup in Europe, the
main market for the vehicles.
More
March 12, 2018 / 5:20 PM
Tesla's electric motor shift to spur demand for rare earth neodymium
LONDON
(Reuters) - Tesla’s shift to a magnetic motor using neodymium in its Model 3
Long Range car adds to pressure on already strained supplies of a rare earth
metal that had for years been shunned because of an export ban by top producer
China.
Efforts by governments around the world to cut noxious emissions
produced by fossil fuel-powered cars is driving demand for electric vehicles
and the metals used to make them, such as lithium and cobalt which are key
ingredients for batteries.
Now the spotlight is on neodymium. Several auto makers already use
permanent magnet motors that rely on the metal because they are generally
lighter, stronger and more efficient than induction motors that are based on
copper coils.
But it is the switch to neodymium by Tesla, an auto maker that has
staked its future solely on the electric vehicle, that is showing the way the
industry is moving and the direction of demand for the rare earth metal.
Research group imarc estimates the market for the neodymium-iron-boron magnet
used in the motors is now worth more than $11.3 billion, with demand for the
magnets rising at a compound annual growth rate of 8.5 percent between 2010 and
2017.
“Some electric car motors use the permanent magnet technology, probably
the most famous is the Tesla Model 3 Long Range. All the other Tesla models —
Model X and Model 3 standard — use induction motors,” said David Merriman, a
senior analyst at metals consultancy Roskill.
Global demand of 31,700 tonnes for neodymium last year already outstripped
supply by 3,300 tonnes, he said. Demand was expected to climb to 34,200 tonnes
this year and 38,800 tonnes in 2018, leaving larger deficits.
More
VW Just Gave Tesla a $25 Billion Battery Shock
By Chris Reiter and Christoph Rauwald
13 March 2018, 09:30 GMT Updated on
13 March 2018, 15:08 GMT
Volkswagen AG secured 20
billion euros ($25 billion) in battery supplies to underpin an aggressive push
into electric cars in the coming years, ramping up pressure on Tesla Inc. as it
struggles with production issues for the
mainstream Model 3.
The
world’s largest carmaker will equip 16 factories to produce electric vehicles
by the end of 2022, compared with three currently, Volkswagen said Tuesday in
Berlin. The German manufacturer’s plans to build as many as 3 million of
the cars a year by 2025 is backstopped by deals with suppliers including Samsung
SDI Co.,
LG
Chem Ltd.
and Contemporary
Amperex Technology Ltd. for batteries in Europe and China.
With the powerpack deliveries secured for its two biggest markets, a deal for North America will follow shortly, Volkswagen said. In total, the Wolfsburg-based automaker has said it plans to purchase about 50 billion euros in batteries as part of its electric-car push, which includes three new models in 2018 with dozens more following.
Volkswagen’s battery plans compare to Tesla’s $17.5 billion worth of purchase obligations as of last year, including $15.4 billion in deals through 2022, primarily related to buying lithium-ion cells from Panasonic, according to a recent filing. Volkswagen called its battery tender one of the biggest purchasing initiatives in the auto industry.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-13/vw-secures-25-billion-battery-supplies-in-electric-car-surge
"What we learn from
history is that people don't learn from history."
Warren Buffett.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
After yesterday’s Great Global Trump Trade War (GGTTW,) winner, today the
likely biggest GGTTW loser, at least in the short term. But with Brexit looming and WTO tariffs
likely between GB and the rump-EUSSR, Germany is facing a one, two, KO sucker
punch directly ahead. But if German industry were to start “teetering,” where
would all the EU money come from to replace the missing GB money?
The Trade Warrior Donald Trump's Attack on German Prosperity
U.S. President Donald Trump seems intent on
launching a trade war. He is ignoring appeals to common sense coming from
Europe and Asia, but one country stands to lose more than any other: Germany. By
DER SPIEGEL Staff
March 12, 2018
06:15 PM
----
Starting last Thursday, automobile
manufacturers once again began presenting their newest attractions. But this
year, the executives are having a more difficult time than usual in exuding
confidence. It's not that their bottom lines are in bad shape; on the contrary.
It's not that they are weighed down by the ongoing diesel scandal; they've more
or less become used to that. Rather, their collective mood was crushed by just
a few words pecked out on the screen of the mobile phone of the most powerful man
in the world.
On March 3, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Twitter that he
would be slapping a punitive tariff on automobiles "which freely pour into
the U.S.," as he complained. Prior to that, Trump had announced that he
intended to introduce a 25-percent import tariff on steel and 10 percent on
aluminum -- and signed the corresponding executive order last Thursday. It was
a move that threw a significant share of the automobile and metal industries
into turmoil.
If Trump also fulfills his threat against foreign carmakers, it would be
a painful blow to German producers, particularly Porsche. The VW subsidiary is
heavily dependent on sales in the United States, with every fourth vehicle sold
in America. Were tariffs introduced, Porsche would likely be forced to raise
its prices and risk taking a hit on sales.
Suddenly, automobile executives find themselves facing a challenge that
they've only ever read about in history books: the dangers of protectionism of
the kind that can lead to a global trade war. "For decades, we grew up
with the certainty that free trade and free markets increase prosperity,"
says Matthias Müller, CEO of Volkswagen. "Suddenly, this certainty is
being questioned."
'We Can Also Do Stupid'
Trump caused a bit of a ruckus with similar comments a year ago, shortly
after his inauguration. In response, a delegation of German business leaders
under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel traveled to Washington to pay
their respects to the new White House resident and make sure he understood that
BMW, for example, produces more vehicles in the United States than it exports
to the country from elsewhere. And it quickly seemed as though the threat had
passed. Now, however, it has become clear that the mission wasn't successful
after all. Trump is now ready to pull the trigger and appeals to logic are a
waste of breath.
Europeans, Asians and quite a few Americans as well are now facing the
stunning realization that the U.S. president adheres to a ludicrous set of
beliefs. "Trade wars are good, and easy to win," Trump wrote on
Twitter to a dumbfounded public. In the face of such voodoo economics, even the
old Wall Street trope "greed is good" hardly seems objectionable.
The EU chose not to sit on its hands. In response to Trump's tariff plans,
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker threatened retaliation,
saying "we can also do stupid." His list of products that could be
slapped with tariffs includes jeans, cosmetics, motorcycles, orange juice,
whiskey and corn. The collective value of the products adds up to around 2.8
billion euros, with the tariff potentially being as high as 25 percent.
What will happen next? And what exactly might China's weekend threat to
"defend the interests of our country and our people" mean in concrete
terms? The country could, for example, cease importing soy beans from the
United States, which would be a tough blow to farmers there. Or they could
suspend exports of rare earths, elements that are vital in the production of
many high-tech devices. It wasn't that long ago that China struck fear into the
hearts of buyers by imposing a similar ban.
The concern is that once the cycle of tariffs and reciprocal tariffs
gets started, it is almost impossible to stop. Small skirmishes can quickly
grow into a global trade war.
The looming conflict is a sign of the turning point at which the global
economy finds itself. Recently, the economy in most corners of the globe has
been healthy, with the world experiencing a rare phase of synchronous growth.
But it looks as though that phase is now coming to an end.
----
Felbermayr, 41, heads up the Center for International Economics at the Center
for Economic Studies (CES). The shaved-headed economics professor, originally
from Austria, has examined just how devastating Trump's economic policies could
be for the German economy. Every fourth job in the country, he says, is
dependent on exports. And in five key sectors -- automobiles, machinery,
electrical engineering, pharmaceuticals and precision instruments -- fully
three-quarters of all exports go to the United States. "If the U.S. were
to cut itself off, it would threaten the German business model,"
Felbermayr says. "Everything would start teetering."
More
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Method to grow large single-crystal graphene could advance scalable 2-D materials
Date:
March 12, 2018
Source:
DOE/Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Summary:
A new method to produce large, monolayer single-crystal-like graphene films
more than a foot long relies on harnessing a 'survival of the fittest'
competition among crystals. The novel technique may open new opportunities for
growing the high-quality two-dimensional materials necessary for long-awaited
practical applications.
Making thin layers of graphene and other 2D materials on a scale
required for research purposes is common, but they must be manufactured on a
much larger scale to be useful.
Graphene is touted for its potential of unprecedented strength and high
electrical conductivity and can be made through well-known approaches:
separating flakes of graphite -- the silvery soft material found in pencils --
into one-atom-thick layers, or growing it atom by atom on a catalyst from a
gaseous precursor until ultrathin layers are formed.
The ORNL-led research team used the latter method -- known as chemical
vapor deposition, or CVD -- but with a twist. In a study published in Nature
Materials, they explained how localized control of the CVD process allows
evolutionary, or self-selecting, growth under optimal conditions, yielding a
large, single-crystal-like sheet of graphene.
"Large single crystals are more mechanically robust and may have
higher conductivity," ORNL lead coauthor Ivan Vlassiouk said. "This
is because weaknesses arising from interconnections between individual domains
in polycrystalline graphene are eliminated."
"Our method could be the key not only to improving large-scale
production of single-crystal graphene but to other 2D materials as well, which
is necessary for their large-scale applications," he added.
Much like traditional CVD approaches to produce graphene, the
researchers sprayed a gaseous mixture of hydrocarbon precursor molecules onto a
metallic, polycrystalline foil. However, they carefully controlled the local
deposition of the hydrocarbon molecules, bringing them directly to the edge of
the emerging graphene film. As the substrate moved underneath, the carbon atoms
continuously assembled as a single crystal of graphene up to a foot in length.
"The unencumbered single-crystal-like graphene growth can go almost
continuously, as a roll-to-roll and beyond the foot-long samples demonstrated
here," said Sergei Smirnov, coauthor and New Mexico State University
professor.
As the hydrocarbons touch down the hot catalyst foil, they form clusters
of carbon atoms that grow over time into larger domains until coalescing to
cover the whole substrate. The team previously found that at sufficiently high
temperatures, the carbon atoms of graphene did not correlate, or mirror, the
substrate's atoms, allowing for nonepitaxial crystalline growth.
Since the concentration of the gas mixture strongly influences how
quickly the single crystal grows, supplying the hydrocarbon precursor near the
existing edge of single graphene crystal can promote its growth more
effectively than the formation of new clusters.
"In such a controlled environment, the fastest-growing orientation
of graphene crystals overwhelms the others and gets 'evolutionarily selected'
into a single crystal, even on a polycrystalline substrate, without having to
match the substrate's orientation, which usually happens with standard
epitaxial growth," Smirnov said.
---- Making thin layers of graphene and other 2D materials on a scale required for research purposes is common, but they must be manufactured on a much larger scale to be useful.
Graphene is touted for its potential of unprecedented strength and high
electrical conductivity and can be made through well-known approaches:
separating flakes of graphite -- the silvery soft material found in pencils --
into one-atom-thick layers, or growing it atom by atom on a catalyst from a
gaseous precursor until ultrathin layers are formed.
The ORNL-led research team used the latter method -- known as chemical
vapor deposition, or CVD -- but with a twist. In a study published in Nature
Materials, they explained how localized control of the CVD process allows
evolutionary, or self-selecting, growth under optimal conditions, yielding a
large, single-crystal-like sheet of graphene.
"Large single crystals are more mechanically robust and may have
higher conductivity," ORNL lead coauthor Ivan Vlassiouk said. "This
is because weaknesses arising from interconnections between individual domains
in polycrystalline graphene are eliminated."
"Our method could be the key not only to improving large-scale
production of single-crystal graphene but to other 2D materials as well, which
is necessary for their large-scale applications," he added.
Much like traditional CVD approaches to produce graphene, the
researchers sprayed a gaseous mixture of hydrocarbon precursor molecules onto a
metallic, polycrystalline foil. However, they carefully controlled the local deposition
of the hydrocarbon molecules, bringing them directly to the edge of the
emerging graphene film. As the substrate moved underneath, the carbon atoms
continuously assembled as a single crystal of graphene up to a foot in length.
"The unencumbered single-crystal-like graphene growth can go almost
continuously, as a roll-to-roll and beyond the foot-long samples demonstrated
here," said Sergei Smirnov, coauthor and New Mexico State University
professor.
As the hydrocarbons touch down the hot catalyst foil, they form clusters
of carbon atoms that grow over time into larger domains until coalescing to
cover the whole substrate. The team previously found that at sufficiently high
temperatures, the carbon atoms of graphene did not correlate, or mirror, the substrate's
atoms, allowing for nonepitaxial crystalline growth.
Since the concentration of the gas mixture strongly influences how
quickly the single crystal grows, supplying the hydrocarbon precursor near the
existing edge of single graphene crystal can promote its growth more
effectively than the formation of new clusters.
"In such a controlled environment, the fastest-growing orientation
of graphene crystals overwhelms the others and gets 'evolutionarily selected'
into a single crystal, even on a polycrystalline substrate, without having to
match the substrate's orientation, which usually happens with standard
epitaxial growth," Smirnov said.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished February
DJIA: 25,029 +283 Up 01. NASDAQ: 7,273 +313 Up 03. SP500: 2,714 +212 Flat.
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