Baltic
Dry Index. 2720 -0.09 Brent Crude 82.93
Spot Gold 4343 Spot Silver 69.86
US 2 Year Yield 4.07 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 39.257 trillion
US GDP 32.217 trillion.
If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents,
he would promise them missionaries for dinner.
H. L. Menken.
With the foolish war (almost) over, now comes the aftermath.
Will the US central bank tomorrow follow the Bank of Japan’s lead and raise US interest rates? Unlikely, even with President Trump busy at the Geneva G-7 trying to explain what his Persian Gulf folly achieved.
How long will the inflation impact of the foolish war continue to drag on the global economy?
Almost unthinkable, but supposing the war resumes after the 60 day ceasefire ends?
In the stock casinos though, it’s party on like it’s dot con one again.
U.S. stock futures are flat after Dow record close
on U.S.-Iran deal; Nikkei 225 hits record high: Live updates
Updated Tue, Jun 16 2026 12:11 AM EDT
Stock futures were little changed early
Tuesday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a fresh record during
the regular session thanks to a potential
deal between the U.S. and Iran.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were both
flat. Futures tied to the Dow were
down 46 points, or less than 0.1%.
During the day’s regular session, the
blue-chip Dow gained 468.77 points, or 0.92%, to rise to a new record close.
The index also reached a new all-time intraday high. The S&P 500 jumped 1.65%,
while the tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite climbed 3.07%.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose to an
intraday record high, while the Topix slipped 0.20%. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.98% on
Tuesday, while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 1.55%. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.25%,
while the mainland’s CSI 300 was marginally higher.
The moves came after President Donald Trump announced that
the U.S. and Iran had reached a deal to end the
war in the Middle East.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
said that both sides have declared the termination
of their military operations on all fronts, with an official signing
ceremony to take place this Friday in Switzerland. A senior Trump
administration official told CNBC’s Megan Cassella that the memorandum of
understanding was already signed electronically on Sunday.
The president also said that the key
Strait of Hormuz passageway would reopen on Friday, sending
oil prices down nearly 5% on Monday. Vice President JD Vance told
CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday
that the strait would “be
opened in a toll-free way for the long term.”
“I would say overall, the market reaction
was fairly positive,” said
Keith Lerner, CIO and chief market strategist at Truist Wealth, on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime”
on Monday afternoon. “Even though the S&P 500 hasn’t quite gotten back to
where it was, underneath the surface it’s telling you one of economic
resilience. I expect things to be somewhat more choppy here in the near term,
but again, it’s hard to complain after we have had a pretty good move off the
March lows and still hanging in there pretty well.”
On Tuesday morning, investors will watch
for May’s housing starts and export and import price indexes.
Bank of Japan hikes rates to highest since
1995 as yen declines to historic lows
Japan’s central bank on Tuesday raised its
policy rate to the highest in over 30 years at 1%, in line with expectations of
economists polled by Reuters, accelerating policy normalization started in
2024.
This is the Bank of Japan’s first hike
since December, when it raised rates to 0.75%, and the first time since 1995
that rates have been increased to 1%.
The policy tightening comes at a time when
Japan has been struggling with a weak yen and inflation that has started to
creep up, partly due to the Iran war.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Trump Iran War Deal Raises 2015 Obama Accord
Comparisons
June 15, 2026 at 10:42 PM GMT+1
An interim deal to reopen the Strait of
Hormuz is to be signed later this week, and Donald Trump is
already congratulating himself, Marc Champion writes in Bloomberg
Opinion. From what can be gleaned of the as-yet unreleased terms, it
seems the US president’s negotiators have solved only the problems Trump
himself has created. This goes all the way back to the Republican’s first term
when he tore up President Barack Obama’s original 2015 deal with Iran.
These new problems include the need to
eliminate Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (which did not exist
before Trump tossed Obama’s deal) and the need to open the Strait of Hormuz
(which closed only as a result of the war Trump and Israel chose to wage). Yet
the memorandum of understanding looks set to make more concessions than the
2015 accord, Champion writes, and for a more
limited potential nuclear deal. And it’s all because Iran discovered it
can hold
the world hostage by closing Hormuz. —David
E. Rovella
Trump’s
Iran War Deal Raises 2015 Obama Accord Comparisons - Bloomberg
It could take years for oil prices to return to
$67 a barrel. Here’s why.
Oil market may need to see a surplus of
supplies and decline in shipping costs
Published: June 15, 2026 at 3:29 p.m.
ET
The U.S. and Iran have reached a tentative
deal to extend their cease-fire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but that’s
just the beginning of a long journey that will include the need for an excess
of crude supplies and lower shipping costs before the market sees any semblance
of normality.
“The opening of the strait is a first
step,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. Next, it
could potentially take years of an “oversupplied oil market to replenish the 1
billion barrels of global oil inventories.”
Market estimates place the world’s loss of oil at 1 billion to 1.5 billion
barrels since the war started on Feb. 28, due to production cuts and transit
disruptions tied to the Iran war.
Oil from the world’s emergency reserves
have been helping to fill that gap. Back in March, the U.S. agreed to release 172 million barrels of crude from
its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of an International Energy
Agency-coordinated global release of a collective 400 million barrels from IEA
member countries.
Read: Here’s the real story behind the record drop in America’s oil
reserves
“Oil markets tend to project forward, so
an extended period of an oversupplied oil market, which assumes uninterrupted
global oil flows, could push oil prices into the $60s,” said Thummel. However,
it is going to take “at least a year for global oil inventories to return to
levels such that oil in the $60s is even a possibility.”
Read: The Iran war may be winding down, but the era of $60 oil could
be over
More
It
could take years for oil prices to return to $67 a barrel. Here’s why. -
MarketWatch
US strategic oil reserve hits lowest level since
1983
by Rachel Frazin -
06/15/26 5:24 PM ET
The U.S. supply of emergency oil has hit
its lowest level since 1983, according to newly released federal data.
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
is down to 340.3 million barrels, according to the data released
on Monday.
The last time that levels were this low was 1983, when the Reagan
administration was filling up the reserve for the first time. The
U.S. established the emergency oil reserve in 1975 after an oil producer
embargo against the country triggered an energy crisis.
The low SPR level is not a shock — the
Trump administration announced in March that it would release 172 million
barrels from the reserve over the course of 120 days.
Levels were also lowered recently after
the Biden administration released 180 million barrels in 2022 after Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices spiking. The administration said in
2024 that it had replenished the reserve.
The reserve can hold up to 714 million
barrels of oil.
The U.S. consumes
about 21 million barrels of oil on any given day
More
US
emergency oil supply hits lowest level since 1983 amid Iran war crunch.
Suez Canal traffic jumps nearly 30% as Strait of
Hormuz disruption pushes more oil shipments through Egypt
11 June 2026
Egypt's Suez Canal is experiencing an
unexpected revival as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push more energy
shipments toward the Red Sea route, providing a much-needed boost to one of the
country's most important sources of foreign exchange.
・The Suez Canal has
seen a sharp rise in traffic as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push more
energy shipments toward the Red Sea.
・April saw 529 oil
tankers transit the canal, a 28% increase from the previous year, with total
vessel numbers also up 14%.
・Suez Canal
revenues surged 27% year-on-year to $419 million, reaching their highest level
since early 2024.
・Despite the recent
recovery, canal activity remains well below pre-crisis levels, with April
vessel numbers nearly half those recorded in 2023.
Egypt's Suez Canal is experiencing an
unexpected revival as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz push more energy
shipments toward the Red Sea route, providing a much-needed boost to one of the
country's most important sources of foreign exchange.
New data from Egypt's state statistics
agency, CAPMAS, shows that the number of oil tankers crossing the canal rose
sharply in April, helping drive canal revenues to their highest level since
early 2024.
A total of 529 oil tankers transited the
waterway during the month, a 28% increase compared to the same period last
year. Overall traffic also improved, with 1,182 vessels of all types passing
through the canal, up 14% year-on-year, per Bloomberg.
Oil flows shift
The increase comes amid major disruptions
to global energy trade following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of
the world's most strategic maritime chokepoints.
Before the conflict involving Iran
escalated earlier this year, roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil and
liquefied natural gas exports moved through the narrow waterway connecting the
Persian Gulf to global markets. With traffic severely restricted, major
producers have been forced to seek alternative routes.
More
Shipping boom triggers rise in Suez Canal fees
Authority says improvement in shipping
economics is one of the reasons behind the increase
Published 10 June 2026, 15:34
The Suez Canal Authority has raised
surcharges by 12% for most ships using the waterway, citing improvements in the
economics of shipping.
The “temporary charges” on top of normal
canal fees increase the surcharge for laden crude carriers to 37% and
northbound vehicle carriers to 26%, it said in a series of circulars.
The extra charges will be brought in from
15 July. They are set according to a base tariff, which has not changed since
2024, said transit agency Leth.
More, subscription required.
Shipping boom
triggers rise in Suez Canal fees
Panama Canal Auction Premiums Spike to $4 Million
as Hormuz Blockade Modifies Global Trade Routes
Published: April, 28 2026
The Panama Canal Authority confirmed
record auction premiums of $4 Million per transit in late April 2026 due to
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and geopolitical tensions. Standard
flat-rate fees of $300,000-$400,000 were overtaken by emergency auction
pricing, reflecting structural shifts in global shipping patterns.
Record Auction Premiums Reshape Canal
Economics
In recent weeks, the Panama Canal
Authority confirmed that companies paid as much as $4 million per transit in
last-minute auction fees per transit - marking an unprecedented surge in
emergency passage costs. Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez noted that one fuel
vessel operator moving its destination from Europe to Singapore due to ongoing
geopolitical tensions paid the maximum premium of $4 Million; this represents a
drastic departure from standard flat rates of $300,000-$400,000 typically
associated with canal passage.
Price increases are driven by an
acceleration in demand volatility; auction premiums initially averaged
$135,000-$250,000 during 2026 but by late winter and early spring had
skyrocketed to an average range of between $385,000-$4225,000 daily, according
to Vasquez. He attributes this surge not to vessel congestion at the canal
itself, but rather last-minute operational shifts and increased urgency as
wider trade chaos takes shape around the world.
Hormuz Closure Drives Structural Trade
Rerouting
Iran's effective closure of the Strait of
Hormuz combined with the U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports initiated on April
13 has dramatically altered shipping economics and forced carriers to seek
alternative routes.
---- Maritime analysts
note that companies are increasingly choosing Panama Canal as the safer and
more economical alternative to Middle Eastern chokepoints. According to Panama
City-based lawyer and analyst Rodrigo Noriega, businesses prioritizing canal
routes despite premium costs as waiting days off Panama City's coast often
proves more costly when factoring fuel consumption and schedule disruptions
into account.
More
Panama Canal
Transit Fees Hit Record $4M Amid Middle East Crisis - Maritime News
In other news.
Middle East war: peace deal reactions
Paris (France) (AFP) – The United States
and Iran agreed to a peace deal and an end to military operations on all
fronts, signalling the apparent end to more than three months of war in the
Middle East.
Issued on: 15/06/2026 - 05:33
Here are reactions from across the globe:
'Critical step': UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
welcomed the peace deal as a "critical step towards the peaceful
settlement of the conflict."
'Ready to support': France
President Emmanuel Macron called for
"the urgent and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,"
adding that France and the UK were "ready to support."
France will also support "the
determined efforts of the Lebanese authorities to restore the sovereignty of
the State."
The agreement "must address concerns
related to Iran's nuclear and ballistic programs," he added.
-'Mine clearance': UK -
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said
"toll-free freedom of navigation must now be restored in the Strait of
Hormuz," adding that the UK was ready "to offer support on mine
clearance."
"It remains the UK's firm and
longstanding position that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon," Starmer
said.
'Regional security': Qatar
Qatar's foreign ministry expressed its
"full support for all efforts and initiatives aimed at enhancing regional
security and stability."
'Remain vigilant': Turkey
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed
"the need to avoid rhetoric, provocations, and actions that could escalate
tensions in the period leading up to the signing of the agreement, and to
remain vigilant against possible sabotage."
'Free and safe navigation': Japan
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she
hopes that "free and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will
actually be ensured, and that a final agreement on Iran's nuclear issue and
other matters will be achieved as soon as possible."
-'Longstanding concerns': Australia -
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and
Foreign Minister Penny Wong called for "continued restraint and
constructive engagement" from the US and Iran.
"Iran must address longstanding
concerns about its nuclear program and the threat it poses to international
security," they said in a joint statement.
'Get fuel flowing': New Zealand
Prime Minister Chris Luxon said the
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz "will help restore stable trade routes,
get fuel flowing and keep our economy moving."
Middle East war:
peace deal reactions
Thirteen thousand air strikes for what?
15 June 2026
After 13,000 American air strikes killing
almost 3,500 Iranians, Donald Trump’s war has ended
not with the triumphant downfall of Iran’s regime but a quick
and partial deal with
the very leadership he once vowed to destroy.
The
outcome has
to be compared with Mr Trump’s extravagant
promises when he launched the onslaught. “To the great, proud people of Iran, I
say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand,” he declared on Feb 28.
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.
This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
That “only chance” turned out to be no
chance at all. The government in question not only remains in power, it has
just struck a deal with the US.
On the same day, Mr Trump’s ally in this
campaign, Benjamin
Netanyahu,
the Israeli prime minister, was even more emphatic. “Our joint action will
create the conditions for the courageous Iranian people to take their destiny
into their own hands,” he said.
Today, the courageous Iranian people are
still in the hands of a brutal Islamic Republic. The main change is that power
has transferred from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the late supreme leader who was
killed in the opening strike, to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and a collection of
even more hardline
generals from
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
And those generals have discovered that
they can withstand 40 days of round-the-clock air strikes from the combined
might of both the US and Israel and still suffocate the world’s energy supplies
by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Any final judgment has to await the full
text of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that Mr Trump believes has ended
this war. But some points are already clear.
First and foremost, this quick interim
deal will probably be the only deal. If the question of limiting Iran’s nuclear
programme – and particularly its ability to rebuild its capacity to enrich
uranium – is deferred until future negotiations, that process is highly
unlikely to produce another agreement.
The central bargain of the MoU will almost
certainly be that Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz in return
for the US lifting the blockade of its ports and ending the conflict.
If Iran would not accept new limitations
on its nuclear ambitions when Mr Trump was strangling its oil exports and
threatening to go back to war, why would the regime give way once their enemy
had lifted the pressure by sacrificing its two biggest bargaining counters?
Put bluntly, Mr Trump’s moment of maximum
negotiating strength has passed with the conclusion of this MoU. There will
probably be no more agreements with Iran’s regime.
More
Thirteen thousand
air strikes for what?
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Ken
Griffin says the Iran war is sending the world into a recession. He's the rare
billionaire willing to put a date on it
June
14, 2026
Fears
of a recession are growing with an ongoing war in Iran and the closure of the
Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, a critical chokepoint for about a quarter
of the world's seaborne oil (1).
That
has led Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, a multinational hedge fund and financial
services company, to warn that if the war drags on, it could push the global
markets into a nose dive.
"We're
very focused on how long the stalemate will persist for," Griffin told
CNBC's Sarah Eisen in an interview at the Milken Global Conference in Beverly
Hills (2).
He
added that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another six to 12 months,
"energy prices around the world will go materially higher [and] it will
push the world into a global recession."
Griffin
isn't alone in his prediction.
Financial
analyst Gary Shilling, who predicted the 1969-70 recession, told Business
Insider that a U.S. recession is "almost inevitable" by the end of
the year, pointing to a frozen housing market, collapsing capital expenditures
in the private sector and a weakening consumer base (3).
Are
we in a 'boomcession'?
While
Griffin believes the U.S. will be largely shielded from the worst of a
recession due to its energy independence, many Americans are already feeling
the pain of escalating costs and eroding purchasing power, especially at a time
when many are worried about their jobs being replaced by AI (4).
More
than half (55%) of Americans say their financial situation is deteriorating,
according to Gallup's annual Economy and Personal Finance survey, conducted
April 1-15 (5).
Overall,
the Gallup poll found that Americans are concerned about affordability,
"with combined mentions of inflation, energy, housing and healthcare costs
— along with college expenses, transportation costs and childcare — far
exceeding all other types of financial concerns."
Yet,
the economy is humming along.
This
phenomenon is referred to as a 'boomcession,' a term coined by pundit Matt
Stoller, a research director at the American Economic Liberties Project, a
nonpartisan think tank. A boomcession occurs when the economy is doing well,
"but ordinary people are saying they're not," he told CNBC (6).
Stoller
added that it explains why GDP growth hasn't correlated with declining consumer
sentiment (7). Consumer expectations that inflation will increase in both the
short and medium term are growing, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York's March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations (8).
More
UK and Japan seal landmark deal worth £18bn as Starmer and Takaichi hail
‘new era’ in relations
Namita Singh Mon, 15 June 2026 at 6:21 am BST
Sir Keir
Starmer said the UK and Japan were
building a "new era of co-operation" as the two countries agreed a
multi-billion-pound investment deal.
The prime minister hosted his Japanese
counterpart Sanae
Takaichi for talks on Sunday ahead of the G7 summit.
"UK and Japan unlock significant inward
investments totalling more than £9 billion in infrastructure and financial
services and up to £9 billion in offshore wind," Downing Street said in a
statement.
The £18bn deal is expected to create tens of
thousands of new jobs, giving a boost to the British economy.
Earlier, the Department for Science, Innovation and
Technology said that a "landmark tech partnership" between the UK and
Japan had been agreed and backed by businesses in both countries.
It said that a formal partnership had been agreed
"for the first time" connecting "the UK's world-class microchip
design expertise with Japan's advanced manufacturing".
The collaboration between the UK Semiconductor
Centre and Rapidus, Japan's 2nm semiconductor manufacturing facility, would
create a "direct pathway for the UK semiconductor sector to manufacture
cutting-edge chips", it added.
Rapidus is backed by £11.6bn in Japanese government
investment and the department said the agreement marked a "critical step
in strengthening the resilience of the UK semiconductor sector".
Sir Keir said the UK-Japan Frontier Technology
Partnership was "combining UK excellence in R&D and software
with Japanese advanced manufacturing experience and
expertise".
He also said the UK and Japan were "working
more closely" on defence and had "lots of issues to discuss in a
volatile world" ahead of the G7 summit
next week.
He hailed the UK-Japan Defence Capability and
Industrial Council as "hugely important" and said the Gcap fighter
jet development initiative was at the "heart of the relationship between
our two countries".
"I'm delighted that we're building stronger
cooperation, a new era of cooperation between our two countries," he said.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Will plug-in
solar panels help cut bills for many?
15 June 2026
Plug-in solar panels will soon be available to buy in supermarkets
across the south. Anyone living in flats or homes without suitable roofs for
traditional solar panels will be able to use the plug-ins.
They can be installed on balconies,
gardens or any other outdoor space. The Government is hoping the new kits will
help homeowners significantly cut energy bills.
Recent figures show there are now more
than 180,000 solar installations across the region. This could be anything from
a single panel on a house to a whole solar farm.
Government research shows a household
could save up to £70 - £110 a year on their energy bills from installing
plug-in solar.
Plug-in solar panels are already widely
used by households across Europe, with Germany seeing around half a million new
devices plugged in every year.
The free solar power can be used
directly through a mains socket like any other device, without an installation
cost, thereby reducing the amount of electricity taken from the grid and
cutting energy bills.
Kevin Ray from Headley bought his own
plug-in panels from Germany last month, he says they're already making a big
difference:
"It's remarkable really. A couple
of weeks ago we had a really good period of sun and we were able to power the
whole house during the day from these panels. Now there's only two panels but
it's up to 800 watts which covers most of the background load you have in your
home during the day."
The move comes as the Government steps
up its drive for clean homegrown power to get the UK off dependency on fossil
fuel markets in response to the Iran war.
Just weeks ago new rules were
introduced to ensure the majority of new
homes in England will come with solar panels fitted as standard.
Angus Berry, an energy specialist from
Alton, invested in 10 roof top solar panels last year he says in the summer he
can power most of his house from them including his car.
"The majority of our energy
consumption throughout the year and most of it in the summer period is coming
from the solar panels stored in the battery and then in the house.
"When it is producing more power
than we are using in the house it charges the battery and when the battery is
charged I just leave the car to be charged with the surplus, if the car isn't
connected it just exports to the grid and you get paid to export it."
More
Will plug-in solar panels help cut bills for many? - BBC News
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
As democracy is perfected, the office of the president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
H. L. Menken.
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