Baltic Dry Index. 3224 -02 Brent Crude 93.38
Spot Gold 4546 Spot Silver 75.73
US 2 Year Yield 3.98 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 39.194 trillion
US GDP 32.172 trillion.
If A.I. does indeed destroy jobs — and at a potentially greater speed than we’ve seen — then public policy must respond, by funding large-scale reskilling or encouraging A.I. that supports workers instead of replacing them.
David M. Solomon chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs.
6:00
AM Update. Hot war resumes?
US-Iran
war live updates: US launches 'self-defence' strikes on Iranian drone sites
01
June 2026
US-Iran
war live updates: The
US said it conducted "self-defense strikes" on Iranian radar and
drone control sites in Iran's Goruk and Qeshm Island at the weekend in what it
said was a response to "aggressive" actions from Tehran.
The US
Central Command said in a post on X that Iran had shot down a US MQ-1
drone that was operating over international waters.
CENTCOM
said US fighter aircraft responded by eliminating Iranian air defenses, a
ground control station, and two one-way attack drones.
It
added that no US military personnel were harmed.
The
two countries had traded strikes last week as well with Iran targeting a U.S.
air base after the U.S. military carried out what a Washington official said
were strikes targeting an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz.
US-Iran
war live updates: US launches 'self-defence' strikes on Iranian drone sites
Alarming
claim? Chinese-made missile may have downed US F-15E fighter jet over Iran
May
31, 2026
A
US F-15E Strike Eagle that crashed in south-western Iran in April may have been
brought down by a Chinese-made shoulder-fired missile, according to a new NBC
News report citing sources familiar with the matter.
If
confirmed, the incident would mark the first time in decades that a US fighter
aircraft has been shot down by enemy fire.
The
report also said China may have supplied Iran with a long-range early-warning
radar system capable of detecting stealth aircraft designed to avoid
conventional radar tracking.
US
officials are continuing to investigate the circumstances surrounding the loss
of the aircraft, which led to a high-risk rescue operation. The reported use of
Chinese-made military equipment by Iran could further complicate relations
between Washington and Beijing, particularly after US President Donald Trump
sought China's assistance in efforts to end the conflict.
More
Alarming claim? Chinese-made missile may have downed US F-15E fighter jet over Iran
The big news this week will (hopefully) be President Trump’s much hyped, but so far undelivered, peace deal with Iran that gets the Strait of Hormuz open again.
If that doesn’t happen, the big news will be increasing distress in the global economies, especially Asia, followed by Friday’s US jobs report, and of course where crude oil prices go.
Goldie is already warning of falling oil
demand. Not a good sign for the global economy.
South Korea stocks hit fresh high amid mixed
regional trade despite Trump’s Iran deal caution
Published Sun, May 31 2026 7:46 PM EDT
South Korea stocks hit a fresh record high
on Monday, bucking a mixed performance across Asia-Pacific markets as investors
monitored lingering uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations after President
Donald Trump said he was in “no hurry” to strike a deal to end the conflict.
South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.31%, while
the small-cap Kosdaq was down 1.58%. Shares of Samsung Electronics rose more
than 3% to hit an all-time high.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.17%, while
the Topix declined 0.3%. In Australia the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.21%.
Shares of SoftBank Group rose 5% after the
conglomerate on Sunday announced plans to invest 45 billion euros ($53 billion)
over the next five years to build artificial intelligence infrastructure
in France.
The Hang Seng index rose 0.73%
while the CSI 300 was down 0.32%.
The U.S. and Iran have still
not finalized an agreement to end the conflict, Trump said in an interview
with his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, on Fox News Saturday. He added that he is
pressing for a deal that would ensure Iran never acquires a nuclear
weapon.
While he said he would prefer a swift
resolution, he stressed that he was not rushing negotiations and warned that
military action could resume if talks collapse.
“I’d like to say I’m in a hurry because
gasoline prices are going to come tumbling down, but if you’re going to be in a
hurry, you’re not going to make a good deal,” Trump said. “And slowly but
surely we’re getting, I think, what we want, and if we don’t get what we want
we’re going to end it a different way.”
Last Friday on Wall Street, U.S. equities
closed at record highs while crude prices slipped, helping the major averages
score a winning month, boosted by technology.
The Nasdaq Composite settled up
0.2% at 26,972.62, while the S&P
500 climbed 0.22% to 7,580.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished
up 363.49 points, or 0.72%, at 51,032.46. All three indexes hit fresh all-time
intraday highs earlier as well.
Asia
markets: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
Wall Street Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha
May 31, 2026, 8:21 AM ET
The main economic event arrives Friday
with the May nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect the U.S. economy added
93K jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold
steady at 4.3%. Investors will also monitor manufacturing and services activity
data, JOLTS job openings, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book for fresh clues
on economic momentum.
Broadcom (AVGO),
CrowdStrike (CRWD),
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE),
Palo Alto Networks (PANW),
and Docusign (DOCU)
headline the earnings calendar, with Broadcom's results likely to provide
another important read on AI infrastructure spending.
The AI theme extends
beyond earnings. Nvidia (NVDA),
Qualcomm (QCOM),
Intel (INTC),
Arm Holdings (ARM),
and other industry leaders will take center stage at Computex Taipei, while
Microsoft (MSFT)
hosts its annual Build developer conference. Both events are expected to
feature major announcements around AI, datacenters, software, and
robotics.
In the IPO market, Honeywell-backed
quantum computing company Quantinuum (QNT)
is expected to debut at a valuation of roughly $12.7B, making it one of the
largest technology offerings of the year.
Meanwhile, FedEx (FDX)
will complete the spinoff of FedEx Freight, creating a new standalone S&P
500 (SP500)
company and marking one of the year's most significant corporate
restructurings.
Wall
Street Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha
These are the forces Jamie Dimon says are the
'biggest thing' on his mind these days
May 30, 2029
Key Takeaways
- In
an appearance Friday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cited geopolitics as
the "biggest thing" on his mind as he contemplates the forces
that will shape the world in the coming years.
- Dimon
characterized the state of markets as "exuberant," but stopped
short of saying that we were in a bubble.
Jamie
Dimon, CEO of the world’s biggest bank, has plenty to worry about. But the
Wall Street veteran says he isn’t losing sleep over rising inflation, a frothy stock market or cracks in private markets.
“Geopolitics, and how this all plays out
over the next few years… that’s the biggest thing,” said Dimon in an interview
Friday with CNBC’s Morgan Brennan at the Reagan Economic Forum
in Simi Valley, Calif.
Dimon, 70, recently celebrated two decades
running JPMorgan Chase. On Friday he echoed comments he made a year ago at the
inaugural Reagan forum, where he said that the global tectonic plates were
shifting and the outcome was uncertain. On Friday, he listed the wars in
Ukraine and Iran, massive global deficits, the remilitarization of the world
and the restructuring of global trade as forces that would shape the future.
Those issues, he said, dwarf the
shorter-term concerns most Americans worry about given their implications to
the United States’ role as the most important economy in the world and the
dollar’s role as the leading global currency. If the U.S. loses economic and
military power, he said, the days of dominance for the greenback could be
short-lived.
And he cautioned that American political
dysfunction would be more likely to lead to a loss of those powers than any
actions by countries like China.
“If we are not the preeminent military and
the preeminent economy in 40 years, we will not be the reserve currency,” he
said.
Dimon, asked whether he thought stocks had
risen too far, too fast, with the leading U.S. indexes continuing to chase
record highs thanks to fast-climbing AI and semiconductor stocks, did not say
the market was in a bubble.
He did, however, acknowledge investor enthusiasm, admitting that hyped-up
markets do present risk.
“The market is exuberant,” Dimon said.
“We’ve seen this before, and of course exuberance can go on for a long time and
it’s not always bad.”
These
are the forces Jamie Dimon says are the 'biggest thing' on his mind these days
Oil jumps 2% as Israel expands Lebanon offensive,
rattling ceasefire hopes
Published Sun, May 31 2026 8:57 PM EDT
Oil prices rose Monday after Israel
ordered troops to push deeper into Lebanon, renewing concerns that clashes with
the Iran-backed Hezbollah group could threaten a fragile ceasefire between
Washington and Tehran.
Brent crude futures, the
international benchmark, gained 2.43% to $93.33 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures added
2.76% to $89.77 per barrel.
The escalation in hostilities, which
followed the U.S.-brokered Israeli-Lebanon talks in Washington on Friday,
dimmed hopes that Washington and Tehran were nearing an extension of their
ceasefire arrangement.
“Together with Defense Minister Yisrael
Katz, I instructed the IDF to expand the maneuver in Lebanon,” Benjamin
Netanyahu said
Sunday. The order came despite
a ceasefire declared in April.
Goldman
Sachs said risks to its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts of
$90 and $83 per barrel remain “two-sided,” with the bank warning that while
persistent Middle East supply disruptions could push prices higher, weakening
demand could create meaningful downside risks.
Goldman estimated that weak April oil
retail sales data from China and Western Europe together implied around 2
million barrels per day of downside risk to its already subdued demand
forecasts.
Oil
jumps 2% as Israel expands Lebanon offensive, rattling ceasefire hopes
In answer to an AI question, “why are our armed forces paid in fiat money rather than real money”. AI replied, banksterism.
No Roman soldier was paid in fiat money until Rome’s finances collapsed. Draw your own conclusions.
How to die or get maimed and paid with nothing!
Fiat Currency: The Invisible Engine Behind Prolonged Wars
Aug 12, 2024
Throughout history, long-term wars have
necessitated extensive financial resources. The mechanisms by which these
resources are obtained and utilized are pivotal in understanding the nature and
duration of these conflicts.
Analyzing the American Civil War and the
War in Afghanistan reveals a critical insight: fiat currency has played a
fundamental role in funding these prolonged wars, facilitated by institutions
like the Federal Reserve.
The American Civil War: A Prelude to
Modern Financing
The American Civil War (1861–1865) stands
as a significant example of how fiat currency can be used to fund extensive
military campaigns. During this conflict, both the Union and the Confederacy
faced immense financial challenges. Initially, the Union government relied on
traditional methods such as taxation and borrowing. However, the escalating
costs of war soon surpassed these revenues.
To address this, the Union government
introduced “greenbacks,” a form of fiat currency not backed by gold or silver.
This move effectively allowed the government
to print money at
will, funding the war effort without immediate fiscal restraint. “By the end of
the war, the Union had issued approximately $450 million in greenbacks, leading
to significant inflation.”
Similarly, the Confederacy issued
“greybacks,” its own form of fiat currency. The Confederacy faced even
more severe
inflation due
to less effective economic management and blockade-induced scarcity. “The total
amount of Confederate notes outstanding rose to more than $1.5 billion by the
end of 1864, exacerbating inflation and economic instability.”
In the post-war period, the National
Banking Acts of 1863 and 1864 further centralized financial power
by prohibiting states and private companies from minting their own coins or
printing their own dollars. This legislation laid the groundwork for a more
unified and controlled national currency system, essential for future
large-scale government financing needs, including war.
The Federal Reserve and Modern Warfare
Fast forward to the 20th and 21st
centuries, the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 marked a significant
evolution in the financial system. The Federal Reserve, as a central bank,
gained the authority to issue fiat currency, manage interest rates, and
regulate the money supply. This institution became instrumental in facilitating
government spending, especially during times of war.
The War in Afghanistan (2001–2021) serves
as a modern illustration of this dynamic. In the wake of the September 11
attacks, the U.S. government embarked on an extensive military campaign. The
Federal Reserve played a crucial role by ensuring that the government had
access to virtually unlimited funds. Through mechanisms such as quantitative
easing and maintaining low interest rates, the Federal Reserve enabled the
continuous issuance of fiat dollars to finance
military operations.
This capacity to print money allowed the
U.S. government to bypass the immediate need for higher taxes or significant
borrowing from external sources. Instead, the war was financed through
the creation
of new money,
contributing to an ever-increasing national debt. The ability to sustain
long-term military engagements without facing immediate fiscal constraints
underscores the power of fiat currency in modern
warfare.
More, much more.
Fiat Currency: The Invisible Engine Behind Prolonged Wars | by Joshua D. Glawson | Medium
In other news, the AI future according to Goldman Sachs CEO. “Well, he would say that, wouldn’t he?” comes to mind.
I’m the C.E.O. of Goldman Sachs. The A.I. Job
Apocalypse Is Overblown.
May 22, 2026
By David M. Solomon
Mr. Solomon is the chairman and chief
executive of Goldman Sachs.
In conversations with hundreds of business
leaders over the past few months, I’ve seen a sharp divide in their views of
artificial intelligence. One camp sees a “job apocalypse” and mass unemployment
ahead; the other sees a great leap forward for society.
Put me in the second camp — with a few
caveats. Will A.I. disrupt the labor market? Absolutely. This transition, like
other significant moments in our history, will entail new challenges,
especially as A.I. separates labor from productivity in magnitudes we haven’t
seen before. But the United States has a long track record of creating new jobs
in response to disruption, from the electrification of the 1900s to the digital
revolution of the 1990s; I don’t see any reason to think this dynamic will stop
now.
There’s no question A.I. will reshape our
everyday lives. Goldman Sachs’s economists estimate that, over the next decade,
A.I. may automate 25 percent of current work hours. While it’s difficult to see
how people in hands-on professions like food preparation, construction or
services will be affected, people in white-collar jobs, among them accountants,
bankers and lawyers, will likely see many of their tasks automated. According
to one
Stanford study,
in the occupations most susceptible to greater automation, such as software
engineering or customer service, entry-level employment has already declined by
16 percent relative to the least-exposed roles.
But when you look at jobs or sectors less
relevant to automation, the picture changes. Our economists estimate that the
growing demand for data centers has created more than 200,000 construction jobs
since 2022. While A.I. eliminates jobs in some sectors, it may lead to job
growth in others. Goldman Sachs may need fewer people in regulatory reporting
or client onboarding, freeing us up to hire more bankers, traders and asset
managers who are interacting with clients constantly.
Of course, we can’t dismiss the human cost
of such disruption. The Industrial Revolution raised living standards only
after society endured the hardships of grueling labor in mills and mines and
the fetid slums that came with rapid urbanization. In recent decades,
manufacturing employment has declined significantly owing to automation and
global outsourcing. This caused enormous hardship for many families and
communities across America such as Gary, Ind., and Greenville, S.C.
But for all those challenges, I keep
bumping up against this reality: Standards of living for a vast majority of
Americans are significantly higher than they used to be. When I was born in
1962, the average American adult didn’t have air-conditioning, but as
air-conditioner prices dropped, nearly all of us got cool. In the 1950s, only a
few large corporations, like IBM, had computers; now some 90 percent of
American adults walk around with a supercomputer in their hand. In 1900, global
life expectancy at birth was 32 years old; today, it’s over 70.
Perhaps more to the point, job growth has
outpaced population growth. Since 1962, civilian employment in the United
States has increased by roughly 145 percent, while the civilian population age
16 and older has risen by about 128 percent. In that time, we’ve seen new
sectors emerge as others have grown or faded. While manufacturing employment
declined from 15.5 million to 12.5 million over this period, led by almost two
million jobs lost in textile and apparel making, the health care industry now
employs more than 18 million workers. The U.S. economy is still the most
innovative, dynamic and entrepreneurial in the world.
----It’s true that even the most reliable
historical patterns can be broken, but there are three reasons I expect the
U.S. economy to remain as resilient and dynamic as ever.
First, if our estimate proves correct,
A.I. won’t eliminate 25 percent of jobs. What’s more likely is that people will
find more productive ways to spend their time. When I was a first-year banking
analyst, something as simple as making a graph of a stock’s performance took
six hours of looking up prices in back issues of The Wall Street Journal on
microfiche. Today, a first-year analyst can do it in seconds, and we have
employed more people than ever in recent years. With more sophisticated tools,
the complexity of our work naturally expands. Do any of us feel like we have
less to do these days despite the convenience of Excel, email or Zoom?
More
Opinion | A.I. Is
a Job Creator - The New York Times
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
To contract new debts is not the way to pay old ones.
George Washington
Japanese
bond yields are the highest in 40 years. The budget and a ‘red flag’ from PM
Takaichi have markets nervous
Published
Sun, May 31 2026 7:13 PM EDT
Japanese
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is compiling a supplementary budget to help households
with the cost of living, but it’s also created skepticism about whether she can
stick to her promises about debt issuance.
The
budget was largely in line with market expectations, at about 3 trillion yen ($19 billion), but comes as
Japan still struggles with higher energy prices, rising subsidy costs, and a
weak yen.
The
budget also marks a reversal from her earlier position that extra spending was not needed. She also said the total
bond issuance for the calendar year of 2026 would remain unchanged from the
original budget plan, according to Bloomberg.
Takaichi
has sought to dispel worries in the bond market, saying that the extra spending
would be financed by issuing deficit-covering bonds. But the 10-year Japanese sovereign bond yield
rose to 2.809% on May 20, its highest since 1996, after reports that the
government may issue fresh debt to fund the extra budget.
“Bond
markets are a lot of things, but they’re not stupid,” said Jesper Koll, expert
director at Tokyo based financial services firm Monex Group. “You cannot
increase spending without increasing debt.”
Takaichi’s
use of the calendar-year time frame has gotten the attention of Japan watchers.
“Nobody
in Japan has ever made policy on the basis of the calendar year,” Koll said,
noting that historically the country’s fiscal calendar ends March 31. “If there
ever is a red flag, that is a red flag.”
In
addition to the 10-year’s move to four-decade highs, the 30-year yield has moved
above 4%, reflecting heightened concern over not only the fiscal risks but also
inflation pressures.
“Recent
developments — including continued uncertainty in the Middle East, elevated
commodity prices, and rising fuel subsidy outlays — have contributed to bond
market concerns about Japan’s fiscal position this year,” Louis Chua, equity
research analyst for Asia at Julius Baer, said.
Investors
might have had more confidence, Koll said, if the government had openly
announced a 10 trillion yen budget funded by 10 trillion yen of bonds, rather
than a smaller package paired with assurances of no additional issuance.
“The
first one, actually, people believe,” Koll said. “The second one, nobody
believes.”
More
Japan
PM Takaichi's budget remarks send `red flag' to bond markets
Surging Treasury yields expose a brutal truth: America has no margin for
error on its $39 trillion debt
May 30, 2026, 3:00 AM ET
In the days before the
Memorial Day weekend, rates on 30 year Treasury bonds hit their highest level
in 19 years at 5.2%, and the benchmark 10-year reached 4.7%, the top reading
since mid-2007. If those kinds of yields take hold, the scenario for federal
interest expense posited in the CBO’s “Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to
2036,” released in February, descends from dire to near-disastrous. Takeaway: America’s
track to fiscal safety has lost all margin for error, and nothing demonstrates
that better than the long-term impact of loftier than expected rates. America’s
got so little room to maneuver that even yields that modestly exceed the CBO’s
“baseline,” as the numbers compound in the years ahead, deliver a huge extra
blow by crowding out big chunks of revenue that would otherwise go towards
funding such essentials as Defense, Social Security and Medicare.
The CBO forecasts that
yields on the 30 and 10-year Treasuries will respectively average about 4.65%
and 4.15% through FY 2036. That’s roughly 55 basis points lower than
the multi-year summit briefly notched in late May. Doesn’t sound like much of a
difference, right? And if the interest expense on our gigantic and ballooning
national debt of $39 trillion weren’t already running at nearly $1 trillion a
year, bigger than Medicare spending and equaling two-thirds of Social Security
outlays, the half-point upward shift would likely prove manageable.
But a recent report from
the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget quantifies the deep
damage even a continuation at the recent peaks would inflict. By 2036, interest
expense would jump from absorbing 14% of all revenues to devouring 30%, five
points more than under the CBO’s forecast. At $2.5 trillion, 2.5x today’s
number, the carrying costs would become the second largest budget category,
beating Medicare by one-third. Interest cost per household would soar from
$7,900 last year to $17,000 a decade hence.
Much of today’s extreme
vulnerability to even slightly higher rates arises from the need to both
refinance existing debt, and shoulder trillions more in newly-issued bonds to
cover deficits, at much higher cost. All told, the federal government will need
to borrow almost $10 trillion in the next 12 months, equivalent to one-third
our total debt. That amount consists of around $7.5 trillion to repay the
Treasuries coming due, and $2 trillion for plugging the shortfall between
revenues and spending. A major reason the U.S. accumulated so much debt in the
first place was the lure of ultra-bargain yields orchestrated by the Fed’s easy
money policy during and following the COVID crisis. In 2021 through early 2022,
Treasury Bills, instruments that mature within a year, offered around a
minuscule 0.2%. Today, that cost’s 18 times fatter at 3.7%.
More
Surging Treasury yields show America has no margin for error on its $31
trillion debt | Fortune
France slides towards recession as GDP goes backwards
30 May 2026
France could be heading for a recession after
revised official figures showed the economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in
the first quarter.
A fall in exports and a decline in household
consumption were behind the contraction, as the country – like other nations –
grapples with global shocks including the Iran war and US tariffs.
The conflict has pushed up oil prices and dampened
tourism while the tariffs have hit trade.
Figures released yesterday also showed inflation rose to 2.8 per cent last month, the highest
rate in more than two years.
Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist at
ING Bank, said: 'Incoming data increasingly points to an economy sliding
towards recession.
All in all, the economy not only started the year
on a weaker footing than expected, but has also deteriorated further in recent
weeks.'
France
slides towards recession as GDP goes backwards
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
CATL Opens World's Largest Energy Storage Testing Facility As
Battery Industry Scales Up
Sat, May 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM
GMT+1
The rapid growth of renewable energy has
created unprecedented demand for large-scale battery storage systems. Around
the world, utilities and governments are investing heavily in energy storage to
stabilize power grids and support the transition away from fossil fuels.
As battery installations become larger
and more complex, reliability has emerged as a major concern. Industry data
suggests that a significant number of energy storage projects experience
performance issues or delays before entering service, highlighting the need for
more comprehensive testing and validation.
China's CATL, already the world's largest battery
manufacturer, believes it has a solution. The
company has officially opened what it describes as the world's largest and most
comprehensive energy storage testing facility, designed to evaluate battery
systems under real-world conditions before they are deployed.
The new institute represents a major
investment in the future of grid-scale energy storage and underscores the
growing importance of battery technology beyond electric vehicles.
CATL's new Energy Storage Validation Research
Institute (ESVL) is located in Xiamen,
China, and covers approximately 10 hectares.
The company invested around 3 billion
yuan, or roughly $441 million, to build the facility. Unlike many testing
centers that focus on individual battery cells or components, ESVL has been
designed to validate entire energy storage systems at the station level.
CATL says the facility will operate as
an open platform that can be used by energy storage companies, certification
organizations, utilities, insurers, and regulators from around the world.
The goal is to provide independent and
traceable performance data that can improve confidence in large-scale battery
installations.
Industry Challenges Continue To Grow
According to CATL, the energy storage
sector faces several significant hurdles as deployment accelerates.
The company cited industry data showing
that nearly one in five large-scale energy storage stations fails to meet
expected performance targets. In addition, almost half of all projects
reportedly experience grid-connection delays of more than two months.
These challenges become increasingly
important as battery storage moves from supporting individual facilities to
becoming critical infrastructure for national power grids. CATL believes more
rigorous testing before deployment can help reduce those risks and improve
long-term system reliability.
Five Specialized Laboratories Under One Roof
The Xiamen facility includes five
dedicated laboratories designed to test different aspects of energy storage
performance.
More
CATL Opens World's Largest Energy Storage Testing Facility As Battery
Industry Scales Up
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt.
Herbert Hoover
No comments:
Post a Comment