Baltic
Dry Index. 2670 -0.50 Brent Crude 78.75
Spot Gold 4324 Spot Silver 70.68
US 2 Year Yield 4.05 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 39.261 trillion
US GDP 32.220 trillion.
A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.
Ron Paul
06:30 Update.
The race to be first, while the oil price is high?
Three Iranian
tankers exit U.S. blockade for first time in months as shipowners eye Hormuz in
‘wary disbelief’
Published
Wed, Jun 17 2026 12:54 AM EDT Updated 34 Min Ago
At least
three Iranian tankers carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil have
exited the U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz in the first such
outbound shipment in two months, as shipowners cautiously reposition ahead of a
U.S.-Iran deal signing in Geneva on Friday.
Two
supertankers named Diona and Hero 2 — both owned by the National Iranian Tanker
Company and under U.S. sanctions — made it through the U.S. Navy
blockade perimeter, carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian
crude oil, according to shipping data provided by Kpler.
A third
Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude exited the
blockade line on Wednesday, according to Kpler.
“Their
apparent departure from the blockade suggests that other Iranian-trading
tankers are also preparing to resume trading,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann,
senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.
The U.S.
and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Monday to end the nearly
four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony to take place on Friday in
Geneva. The pact, whose details have not been disclosed, is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on
Iran’s oil sales.
Washington
would allow Tehran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once the agreement
is signed this week, in exchange for Iran’s commitment to curb its nuclear
program, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.
The
Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flowed before
the war, has been effectively shut for the duration of the conflict. The U.S.
Navy has blockaded
Iranian ports and Iran, targeting vessels linked to nations it deemed
adversaries, stranding hundreds of ships and disrupting global energy flows.
The
prospect of a reopening prompted some shipowners — battered by months of surging
freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums — to begin repositioning
vessels toward Gulf ports in anticipation of a surge in restocking demand,
while most are more cautious and continued to hold back.
“The
maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief
than celebration,” said Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Insurers
are holding firm on high war-risk premiums, demanding “solid evidence” that the
waterway will remain safe, Lloyd’s analysts said. “While a pause in hostilities
will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees
this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality,” the analysts
said in a client note on Tuesday.
More
Iranian
tankers exit U.S. blockade ahead of deal signing
It is newbie Fed Chairman Warsh’s Big Day. While most Fed “experts” expect the Fed to leave their key interest rate unchanged, how Chairman Warsh spins it, and his forward guidance will likely make or break Wall Street’s early opinion of Trump’s man leading the Fed.
In Iran war news, US media largely swings against Trump’s folly. How did the “Mouse that roared,” manage to corner Trump’s war on the global economy?
Is Trump already a “lame duck” president even before the November mid-term elections? If so, what now for the next two and a half years?
Stock futures are higher as Wall Street gears up
for Federal Reserve rate decision: Live updates
Updated Wed, Jun 17 2026 12:35 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures rose early Wednesday as
traders looked ahead to the central bank’s interest rate decision.
S&P 500 futures were
0.26% higher, while Nasdaq
100 futures added 0.52%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average were up just 41 points, or about 0.1%.
During the day’s regular session,
the Dow climbed to
new intraday and closing highs, ultimately gaining 328.64 points, or 0.64%. The
blue-chip index crossed over 52,000 for the first time during the trading
session, but ultimately closed a hair below the level. On the other hand,
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 0.57%
and 1.15%, respectively.
SpaceX shares
continued their winning ways, closing up more than 4% in Tuesday’s session.
Elon Musk’s space company is up almost 50% from its initial public offering
price of $135 a share. The stock extended gains in after-hours trading, last up
2%.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a new high,
rising 0.91%, while the Topix gained 0.91%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.42% and the
small-cap Kosdaq advanced 1.49%. Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 was 0.58%
higher. Hong Kong Hang Seng
Index slipped 0.37%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was marginally
higher.
The moves came after all three major
averages rose on Monday, following an announcement from President Donald Trump that the U.S.
and Iran had reached a potential
deal to end the war. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that
both sides have terminated
their military operations, while an official signing ceremony will take
place in Switzerland this Friday.
“I think we’re in pretty good shape here
for a solid finish to the quarter, and then, as we go into the second half,
color us constructive,” said Scott Chronert, head of U.S. equity strategy at
Citi Research, on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime” on Tuesday afternoon.
The strategist said that he still expects
leadership out of the artificial intelligence infrastructure cohort going into
the second quarter reporting period. “With oil prices beginning to come off
here as we get closer to an Iran conflict resolution, I think we can see the
Fed moving to the sidelines,” he said.
“What this ultimately does is extend the
broadening playbook, which has been underway for the past month or so, all of
which gives us, in our view, a path higher as we go into the back half of the
year,” Chronert said.
Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee
meeting marks the first one with new Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm of
the U.S. central bank. Investors are largely expecting that the Fed will keep
interest rates unchanged at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. However, most Wall
Street Fed watchers anticipate that Warsh won’t
submit a “dot” to the FOMC’s quarterly update of where individual
officers expect rates to head from here.
CarMax and Jabil are set to report
earnings before Wednesday’s opening bell. Traders will also watch out for May’s
retail and pending home sales readings.
Stock
market today: Live updates
US and Iran Prepare to Sign Deal, Both Claim
Victory
June 16, 2026 at 5:06 PM GMT+1
The Iran peace deal and the reopening of
the Strait of Hormuz have been the focus of this year’s G7 summit taking place
in France. The text of the deal has not yet been published but it has been
agreed it
will be signed on Friday near Lucerne in Switzerland.
US President Donald Trump has framed the
agreement with Iran as a victory, saying it will ensure Iran never develops a
nuclear weapon without offering details. He said the US won’t fund the
rebuilding of the country, while also holding open the door to American
investments down the road.
The president described Hezbollah as a
“pinprick” that risks derailing peace. He suggested Syria [TGKZPCKIUPUQ]should
take on the militant Lebanese Shia group, while criticizing Israel for
operations in Lebanon, saying “too many people are being killed.”
As for the Strait of Hormuz, Trump wants
it opened as quickly as possible, but discussions
over how to clear Iranian mines from the waterway are complicated. The
US is short of demining capabilities that it can deploy to the Middle East and
so it needs the help of its allies. Europeans raised questions about what
exactly was agreed to before committing to do that.
Ukraine was also
a topic among leaders in the French Alps. Trump confirmed he met with
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and called on Russia to strike a deal. —
Caroline Alexander
Leaders
Meeting in Evian for G7 Focused on Iran Deal, Hormuz Opening - Bloomberg
Trump Stages an Iran Retreat
The regime gets financial relief to reopen
Hormuz and hold more nuclear talks.
Updated June 15, 2026 5:19 pm ET
President Trump is touting his latest
cease-fire deal with Iran as peace in our time, but the world is more
likely to see it as a strategic retreat short of achieving his war aims. To
reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Mr. Trump is accepting Iran’s promises merely to
negotiate over its nuclear program.
Most of the press has been hostile from
the start, but we’ve supported the President’s Iran policy. We’ve done so
because a nuclear Iran would be an existential threat, and because we want
Presidents to succeed when they go to war.
Mr. Trump’s willingness to use military force when no one else would has set back Iran’s nuclear program, military and industrial base. The result isn’t “Obama deal 2.0” because, unlike in 2015, Iran’s key nuclear facilities are in rubble and its enrichment of uranium has been halted for the first time in 20 years. The media critics and Democrats who now savage the President would have stood by while a nuclear bomb became a fait accompli, as in North Korea.
But there’s no denying that Mr. Trump is
retreating from his main goals as political pressure has built at home and
finishing the job requires greater military risk. Despite Israel’s urging, he
never authorized a mission to seize Iran’s enriched uranium. He never tried to
reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
Those who say Mr. Trump had no alternative
to this retreat ignore that the U.S. blockade was squeezing Iran more by the
day, while Iran’s blockade was leaking. Mr. Trump simply didn’t want to endure
higher oil prices for longer. This is his choice, not a strategic imperative.
The new deal extends the cease-fire for
another 60 days, though our guess is that it will be renewed, perhaps many
times. The U.S. blockade will end, as Iran de-mines the Strait on a timetable
so traffic can be unrestricted. This seems to be Mr. Trump’s main goal, which
will mean lower gasoline prices before the midterm elections. But Tehran says
Hormuz won’t return to the status quo ante, and it claims it will charge “fees”
not tolls, as if that’s more than a semantic difference.
The full memorandum of understanding text
hasn’t been released, and Mr. Trump says some of it is “a little conceptual.”
Which is the problem. It would defer most matters of the nuclear program to 60
more days of talks, with oil and other sanctions relief along the way in
exchange for diplomatic progress.
This linkage is crucial, but pushing off
the most difficult nuclear issues in talks with “dishonorable people” who don’t
deal “in good faith,” as the President called them on Friday, doesn’t inspire
confidence. If the regime won’t agree to dismantle its nuclear program now, why
would it do so after weeks of oil exports and other relief?
More
Trump
Stages an Iran Retreat - WSJ
The Iran War Permanently Altered the Global
Economy
The global order has been altered, and
economies are unlikely to simply pick up where they left off before the U.S.
and Israel began bombing Iran.
June 16, 2026
The framework deal between the United
States and Iran sets the stage for an end to the bursts of violence and
debilitating disruption of energy deliveries and trade in the Persian Gulf. But
don’t expect economies around the globe to simply pick up where they left off
before the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on Feb. 28.
The war has set in motion changes that
will be hard to reverse.
The global energy order is being reshaped.
The near shutdown in oil and gas deliveries
from the Middle East and the leap in prices are causing a shift in power.
Energy producers from the Gulf to the Americas are jockeying to maintain or
increase their dominance, and customers are struggling to reduce their dependency and
shore up their supply.
As a result, the energy
market is changing, the energy mix is changing and the energy players are
changing.
The profound vulnerability of countries
throughout Asia, Europe and elsewhere that depend on imported energy is
supercharging the hunt for alternatives. In some places, like South Korea and
Japan, that has led to an increased use of dirtier fuels like coal.
But over the longer term, this energy shock — the second in just four years — is likely to accelerate a transition to renewables like solar and wind as well as nuclear power.
More, subscription required.
The
Iran War Permanently Altered the Global Economy - The New York Times
Kevin Warsh’s Fed is not expected to make any
change to rates for a while, according to CNBC Fed Survey
Published Tue, Jun 16 2026 7:05 AM EDT
Amid heightened anticipation, Kevin Warsh will head
his first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman but is expected do very little,
at least initially, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.
The 32 respondents, including economists,
fund managers and strategists, as a group see no rate change at this meeting or
any meeting through 2027. But 88% do expect the Fed at this week’s meeting to
remove the easing bias in the statement that has signaled the Fed’s next move
would likely be a cut.
Warsh comes in as the hand-picked nominee
of a president who has been bullying the Fed for years for lower rates. But
high inflation, spurred in part by the President Donald Trump’s tariffs and war
with Iran, have taken those cuts off the table for now and pushed them out of
the forecast horizon for the Fed Survey and the Fed Funds futures markets.
“While Warsh is generally perceived as
dovish, he will inherit a committee that has become noticeably more hawkish,”
said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. “Several policymakers have recently
argued that rate hikes should remain an option if inflation remains above
target, and concerns around energy-driven inflation pressures have only
reinforced that bias.”
Warsh himself has said rates could be
lower but has not said if his outlook has changed amid the recent surge in
inflation and stronger jobs numbers. The announcement of a potential deal with
Iran, which came after the survey was taken, could give Warsh flexibility to
cut rates sooner than currently expected. As it is now, respondents don’t
believe that high oil prices will lead the Fed to hike but see the funds rate
basically unchanged from the current level of 3.62% through 2027.
On the plus side, the survey shows Warsh
taking the helm of an economy that has been resilient to recent shocks and
expected to remain that way. Forecasters nudged up their growth outlook,
lowered the probability of recession from 33% in April to 25% and reduced their
expectations for the unemployment rate.
Economist Hugh Johnson writes in:
“Improving economic and employment conditions and modestly rising stock prices
are common characteristics of the current stage of the stock
market-economic-interest rate cycle. Early warning signs of a bull
market-ending recession have not as yet surfaced.”
More
In other news, how long will shipping remain
disrupted?
Strait of Hormuz reopening won't end shipping risks
A
proposed US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is raising hopes for
global shipping and oil markets. But naval mines, high insurance costs and
geopolitical risks mean disruption could persist for months.
15 June 2026
US President Donald
Trump on Sunday hailed
a framework
agreement between the United
States and Iran aimed at ending hostilities in the Gulf that
have reduced commercial shipping in the Strait of
Hormuz to a trickle for
more than three months.
The deal, scheduled to be
signed on Friday in Switzerland, reopens the strait to shipping
without tolls, lifts the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and
allows Tehran to resume oil exports under limited sanctions relief.
The framework
also extends the current ceasefire for at least 60 days while launching
broader talks on Iran's nuclear program.
Yet, unlike reopening a
highway after a car wreck, restoring prewar oil, gas and container traffic
through this vital chokepoint faces significant
hurdles.
Greek maritime risk
management agency MARISKS warned in a research note on Monday that the
framework agreement should be viewed as "the beginning of a de-escalation
process rather than the immediate restoration of normal trading
conditions."
When can Gulf shipping safely resume?
Assuming attacks from
both the US and Iran have ended for good, Iran must first find and clear
the naval
mines it deployed during
the conflict to make the waterway passable once again
Most could be located
fairly quickly using minesweepers, underwater drones and
sonar. But some mines may have drifted or be hard to find, say maritime
experts.
Independent observers
will then need to verify that the waterway is safe for shipping.
The process could take 40
to 50 days, according to maritime security sources cited by Reuters news
agency on Monday.
Jakob Larsen, chief
safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO, told Reuters
that Hormuz transits right now would be "very risky" and called for
"mine-free routes" to be established.
War-risk insurance is still a major hurdle
Even when the mines are
cleared, shipping firms will be looking for much lower war-risk insurance costs
for transiting Hormuz before confidence is restored.
Currently, premiums
remain extremely high, at 1% to 4% of a vessel's value per transit, compared
with prewar rates below 0.1%, according to a report in The New
York Times.
For a typical
$200-million (€172-million) tanker, this has added between $2 million
and $8 million per transit, compared with less than $200,000 before the war.
Shipping data and
analysis company Lloyd's List on Monday cited an unnamed insurance
underwriter based in Singapore who described premiums as "quick to go up,
slow to go down."
Anoop Singh, global head
of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, warned that shipowners
would assess the pros and cons based on their own risk tolerance.
"The Japanese,
Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a
different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up," Singh
told Bloomberg.
When can stranded ships start moving?
Once safe corridors in
the strait have been established, hundreds of commercial vessels and their
crews that have been stranded for months in the wider Gulf
region can begin moving.
Bloomberg cited data from
commodity intelligence firm Kpler that 300 fully loaded vessels are
currently sitting in the Gulf, while a further 250 are empty and awaiting
loading, once the strait reopens.
Nearby in the Gulf of
Oman, a further 300 empty tankers are awaiting permission to enter the Gulf.
---- Damaged energy facilities and a return to normal
Gulf countries,
meanwhile, can now begin to ramp up oil and gas production. But
this requires safety inspections of energy facilities, repairs to any
damaged infrastructure and the phased return of workers and
maintenance crews.
A full restart will hinge
on restoring shipment schedules, securing enough tankers and convincing
international buyers that energy flows are reliable again.
Neil Shearing, group
chief economist at UK-based Capital Economics, projected Monday that it would
take until the end of September for around 80% of energy flows through Hormuz
to resume.
Shearing warned that
natural gas flows "will be slower to return," citing damage to
Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied
natural gas hub — where
attacks knocked out about 17% of the country's export capacity, likely for
several years.
More
Strait of Hormuz reopening won't end shipping risks
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Has Trump’s foolish war finally caught up
with China?
China economy weakens further in May as retail
sales post first drop in over three years
Published Mon, Jun 15 2026 10:08 PM EDT
China’s retail sales fell for the first
time in more than three years in May while urban investment contracted more
than expected, piling pressure on Beijing to roll out meaningful stimulus to
spur consumption, even as de-escalation in Middle East tensions offers some
near-term relief.
Retail sales, a gauge of consumption,
declined in May for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% from a
year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. The
Labor Day holiday at the start of May failed to offset sluggish consumer
spending, with Beijing scaling back trade-in subsidies earlier this year.
The sales contraction was a surprise as
economists polled by Reuters had estimated flat growth. Fu Linghui, the
bureau’s spokesperson, highlighted retail sales in goods and services combined
eked out a 2.8% jump over the five months.
China’s urban fixed-asset investment,
including real estate and infrastructure, contracted 4.1% this year as of
end-May from a year earlier, compared with the estimated 2% decline and
steepening from the 1.6% drop in the first four months this year.
Real estate dragged on investment, with
inflows falling 16.2% in the January-to-May period. Manufacturing fixed-asset
investment contracted for the first time since December 2020, Wind data showed,
despite resilience in high-tech and policy-supported manufacturing. Investment
in infrastructure grew 0.6% from a year earlier.
Industrial output was the lone bright
spot, rising 4.5% in May to top estimates of 4.3% growth and rebounding from
April’s near three-year low of 4.1%.
“The domestic imbalance between strong
supply and weak demand is acute,” the statistics bureau said. “Some enterprises
are facing considerable pressure in their operations,” the authority said,
calling for development of new technology and greater employment support to
achieve “an appropriate increase in economic output.”
The economy has shown signs of faltering
following a strong first quarter. Growth slowed
across the board in
April, with industrial output and retail sales recording their weakest gains in
years. In May, the official gauge
on manufacturing activity slowed to 50, the threshold separating
expansion from contraction.
During the extended holiday in early May,
while boosting travel and dining activity, per
capita spending lagged behind the
same period in 2025,
as consumers have grown more price-conscious.
“The weak retail sales data puts pressure
on the government to consider policy measures to stabilize consumption,” said
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management,
expecting the policy “fine-tuning” to come in July following the release of
second-quarter GDP data.
The national unemployment rate fell to
5.1% in May, compared with 5.2% in April.
More
China economy
weakens further in May as retail sales post first drop in over three years
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Interesting, but unlike a regular
airplane, an E-plane doesn’t get lighter as the energy gets consumed. The take-off
weight will also be the landing weight.
World’s first crewed solid-state flight electrifies aviation's
future
June 12, 2026
On June 5, test pilot Miguel Iturmendi lifted off from Zephyrhills
Municipal Airport in Florida at the controls of the Helios Horizon – the first
crewed, fixed-wing aircraft ever to fly on solid-state batteries. The flight
was neither spectacular in distance nor in duration – it was a series of short
tests to validate the aircraft's weight and balance after the new batteries had
been installed – but it didn't need to be to make history.
Electric aviation has always been held back by the same physics
problem. Conventional lithium-ion
batteries, the chemistry behind most electric cars, use a liquid
electrolyte to move charge between electrodes. That liquid architecture stores
too little energy per kilogram to make commercially useful flights realistic.
Solid-state
batteries replace that liquid with solid materials, making cells more
resistant to impact, puncture, and heat, dramatically reducing fire risk, and –
most importantly – packing far more energy into the same weight.
The Helios Horizon's previous lithium-ion pack delivered 260 Wh/kg
(watt-hours per kilogram, a measure of how much energy a battery holds relative
to its weight). The new solid-state cells hit 410 Wh/kg, a 60% jump. Chief test
pilot and company founder Miguel Iturmendi expects that figure to grow another
40% within two years.
Though the battery pack can be topped up over any AC outlet, no
special infrastructure needed, fast-charging is also supported for up to 80%
capacity in under 15 minutes. The aircraft also recovers energy in flight
through wing-mounted solar panels and a regenerative system that spins the
propeller as a wind turbine during glides and descents. "Regenerative
flight can significantly extend the aircraft's range," Iturmendi said
after the test flights.
The Helios Horizon itself started life as a Pipistrel Taurus
motorized glider. Iturmendi's team added proprietary battery management, a
custom propulsion stack, thermodynamic controls, and solar panel wing
extensions. The aircraft already holds the world altitude record for electric
planes in its weight class, having reached 24,000 ft (7,315 m). The next goal
is 40,000 ft (12,192 m), commercial cruising altitude, in stratospheric flights
planned for later this year.
The Helios Horizon isn't alone in chasing solid-state aviation,
though it is ahead. Chinese eVTOL maker
EHang has tested its two-seat EH216-S with lithium-metal solid-state
cells developed alongside Inx Energy, logging a 48-minute continuous flight at
480 Wh/kg. Battery giant CATL has shown off its "condensed
battery" technology at around 500 Wh/kg and says aeronautical testing
is underway. Airbus and Renault also have a joint R&D agreement targeting
roughly double current energy densities to enable hybrid and electric
medium-haul aircraft by the 2030s.
Almost all of these programs remain at the demonstrator stage, far
from regulatory certification. The Helios Horizon flight is the first real step
across that line. If solid-state energy density keeps improving at the pace
Iturmendi projects, the history it made earlier this month may just be the
beginning.
First crewed
solid-state flight may electrify aviation
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Near the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily
optimistic because they've seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The
sell-offs witnessed during that span were usually brief. Even when they were
severe, the market bounced back quickly and always rose to loftier levels. At
the top, optimism is king, speculation is running wild, stocks carry high
price/earnings ratios, and liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest
rates can easily be the catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point.
Martin Zweig
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