Baltic Dry Index. 2307 +68 Brent Crude 106.65
Spot Gold 1932
In
a Geneva bank, a foreigner enters and whispers: “I want to open a bank account
for 5 million dollars.”
The Swiss Banker cheerfully replies: “You can say it louder, sir. In our bank
poverty is not a crime.”
This Sunday, yet another French presidential election. To no one’s great surprise, President Macron, the incumbent, leads in the polls by 10 to 12 percent. But does he?
Across the English Channel, note not the European Channel, John Bull is leading in the race into stagflation. In fact, John Bull is so far ahead, it’s difficult to see any other contestant nation catching up.
Of course, the EU could yet make Germany the winner, but only by cheating and banning all purchases of Russia oil and gas. They wouldn’t do that to Germany would they? Surely they’ve forgotten and forgiven WW2 by now.
If they did, quite a few other European nations would also leap over John Bull, completely spoiling his race into stagflation.
Look away from the inflation/stagflation section now.
But first, Wall Street wobbles before the coming interest rate driven crash.
Wall Street dives, dollar jumps as rate hikes take spotlight
April 22, 2022 9:27 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday while the U.S. dollar hit a more than two-year high as investors prepared for a bevy of interest rate hikes in a global inflation fight.
All three major Wall Street indices ended down more than 2% a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. central bank was preparing a half-point interest rate hike at its May meeting, with more to come.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) closed down 2.82%, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 2.77% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 2.55%.
The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 45 nations, fell 2.46%.
Powell drove headlines on Thursday by saying a 50 basis point rate hike is "on the table" at the Fed's next meeting, adding that it "is appropriate to be moving a little more quickly" to combat inflation. read more
----Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were also on the uptick as traders prepared for higher rates, with short-dated bonds hitting three-year highs in Friday trading.
Two-year note yields , highly sensitive to interest rate moves, rose to 2.789%, the highest since December 2018, before dipping lower to 2.697% in the afternoon. Benchmark 10-year yields were last at 2.899%, after reaching 2.981% on Wednesday, also the highest since December 2018.
----Oil was down on the week, as concerns of looming interest rate hikes, weaker global growth and COVID-19 lockdowns in China hurting demand outweighed a potential European Union ban on Russian oil that would tighten supply.
Brent crude fell 2% at $106.16 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 2.03% to $101.69 a barrel.
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-04-22/
UK economy stumbles as consumers, firms brace for downturn
April 22, 2022 10:28 AM GMT+1
· UK retail sales fall 1.4% in March, far more than expected
· Consumer confidence approaches record low levels
· S&P Global business survey shows growth slowing, gloomy outlook
· Bailey says BoE walks tightrope between inflation and recession
LONDON, April 22 (Reuters) - Britain's economy is losing steam as households face a tightening cost-of-living squeeze, according to data published on Friday which showed sliding retail sales and consumer confidence approaching all-time lows.
The pound slid by more than a cent to fall below $1.29 for the first time since November 2020 after official data and surveys of consumers and businesses pointed a sharp growth slowdown, or worse, in the coming months.
A closely watched gauge of business activity from S&P Global showed growth slowed by more than expected this month as companies grappled with surging costs and became much gloomier about the outlook. read more
Official data showed retail sales volumes slid by 1.4% in March from February, a worse reading than any economist forecast in a Reuters poll.
Earlier on Friday, market research firm GfK said consumer confidence slumped this month to close to its lowest level since records began nearly 50 years ago. read more
Overall, the data underscored growing concern at the Bank of England about the opposing challenges of weakening demand and inflation at a 30-year high of 7% and likely to rise further beyond the central bank's 2% target.
Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday the BoE was walking a tight line between tackling inflation and avoiding recession, a challenge facing other major central banks around the world. read more
"Whether the UK heads into a recession is still an open question," said ING economist James Smith, who highlighted the potential for savings that many households built up during the coronavirus pandemic to continue driving growth.
"The jury's out, but we think the Bank of England is more likely to hike interest rates once or twice more, before pressing the pause button over the summer."
----Consumer-facing businesses will likely face a tough time in the months ahead, with GfK's gauge of households' confidence about their finances in the future slumping to a record low.
The Office for National Statistics said food and petrol sales fell sharply last month and it cited rising prices as possible explanations for the falls. Online retail sales also declined.
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-retail-sales-tumble-by-14-march-2022-04-22/
Next, in
that very unnecessary European war that diplomacy deliberately failed to
stop, Ukraine’s early reckoning of the rebuilding cost is USD 600 billion. My guess
is higher and the war’s not even over yet.
Rebuilding Ukraine will cost $600B, says Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal
April 22, 2022 / 4:15 AM
April 22 (UPI) -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal called on members of the International Monetary Fund for financial assistance, stating it will cost $600 billion dollars to rebuild the war-torn country following Russia's invasion.
The prime minister made the appeal Thursday during a ministerial meeting held by the IMF and the World Back in Washington, D.C., as the Russia's war nears entering its third month.
Since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24, more than 2,340 civilians have been killed with another 5 million forced to flee. The war has also laid destruction to the nation's buildings, and the estimate Shmyhal gave Thursday is an increase of almost $50 billion from the figure he gave mid-March.
Shmyhal detailed during the bank's spring meeting about "Russia's plans to destroy Ukraine and the Ukrainian economy" and that in the short term Kyiv will require an estimated $4 billion to $5 billion a month over the next six months to survive.
---- The World Bank forecast earlier this month that Ukraine's economy could contract by 45% this year with a worse case scenario seeing its gross domestic product shrink by 75%.
Earlier this week, it was announced that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and IMF Director Kristalina Georgieva had discussed post-war reconstruction efforts, and Shmyhal said Thursday that he urges members of the Washington-based lender to donated 10% of their special drawing rights to Ukraine as an answer to the economic crisis.
SPDs are an international reserve asset that the IMF created to supplement the reserves of its member nations, and if the nations allot Kyiv 10% of their stakes in the reserve, it would give the country access to billions of dollars that Shmyhal said they can use to "continue to fulfill our social obligations, maintain business, restore critical infrastructure."
More
Treasury grants licence to pay contracts for Russia’s Gazprombank until May 31
Friday 22 April 2022 10:19 am
The treasury has granted a licence to pay Russia’s Gazprombank and its subsidiaries until the end of next month.
The decision was made to ensure gas supplies continue to flow to the European Union according to a document seen by Reuters.
The license allows an individual or firm to continue paying any contracts that began before April 21.
Gazprombank is one of the main ways transactions are conducted for Russian oil and gas, and it was sanctioned by the UK due to the war in Ukraine. Gazprom is one of Russia’s key oil and gas bodies.
Russia has continued to supply oil and gas to the European Union, but has demanded payment in roubles, and threatened to turn off the taps if not.
Moscow urged people to open accounts with Gazprombank, so payments could be converted into roubles.
On Thursday, the UK issued a set of 24 new sanctions against individuals and firms linked to the Kremlin’s war machine.
The foreign office says the UK has so far sanctioned more than £900bn of global assets from Russia-linked banks and oligarchs, as well as their families.
Finally, with the US fiat dollar now weaponised, a gradual move away from the dollar is just getting underway.
Israel adds China's yuan for the first time ever while cutting its dollar holdings in biggest currency reshuffle in a decade
Wed, April 20, 2022, 2:32 PM
Israel's central bank will add Chinese yuan while slashing its dollar and euro holdings in a move to diversify its reserve allocations and lengthen its investment horizon, Bloomberg reported.
"We need to look at the need to earn a return on the reserves that will cover the costs of the liability," Deputy Governor of the Bank of Israel, Andrew Abir, said in an interview.
In addition to the yuan, the bank will also add the Canadian and Australian dollars, signaling a shift in the bank's "whole investment guidelines and philosophy," Abir said. Previously, the bank only held US dollars, euros, and the British pound.
Israel's reserves stockpile will surpass $200 billion for the first time.
Moving forward, the yuan will take up 2% of the bank's reserves, and both the Canadian and Australian currencies will have 3.5% each, according to the bank's annual report.
The new additions means the euro's share will fall from 30% to 20%, and the dollar will account for 61%, down from 66.5%.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the dollar's share of total global currency reserves has fallen to its lowest point in over two decades, sparking speculation over the rise of China's yuan.
China has long pushed for the yuan to supplant the dollar as the go-to reserve currency. The weaponization of the US currency against Russia's financial institutions means a sea change could be coming, experts say. The effectiveness of the West's sanctions against Russia has provided a wake-up call for countries seeking to reduce their exposure to the dollar, economist Aleksandar Tomic previously told Insider.
But for China's yuan to gain much further, other nations would have to lose trust in the US economy and gain trust in China's monetary authorities.
"Challenges to the dollar have come before, but none have taken hold because when things turn volatile, the US tends to be stable, so the dollar persists," Tomic said.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/israel-adds-chinas-yuan-first-133259326.html
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Indonesia bans palm oil exports as global food inflation spikes
April 22, 2022 9:28 PM GMT+1
JAKARTA, April 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, announced plans to ban exports of the most widely used vegetable oil on Friday, in a shock move that could further inflame surging global food inflation.
The halting of shipments of the cooking oil and its raw material, widely used in products ranging from cakes to cosmetics, could raise costs for packaged food producers globally and force governments to choose between using vegetable oils in food or for biofuel. Indonesia counts for more than half of global palm oil supply.
In a video broadcast, Indonesia's President Joko Widodo said he wanted to ensure the availability of food products at home, after global food inflation soared to a record high following Russia's invasion of major crop producer Ukraine. read more
"I will monitor and evaluate the implementation of this policy so availability of cooking oil in the domestic market becomes abundant and affordable," he said.
The announcement will hurt consumers in top buyer India and globally, said, Atul Chaturvedi, president of trade body the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA).
"This move is rather unfortunate and totally unexpected," he said.
Alternative vegetable oil prices spiked in response to the measure which will take effect on April 28. Soybean oil, the second most used vegetable oil, rose 4.5% to a record high of 83.21 cents per pound on the Chicago Board of Trade . read more
Global prices of crude palm oil, which Indonesia uses for cooking oil, have surged to historic highs this year amid rising demand and weak output from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, plus a move by Indonesia to restrict palm oil exports in January that was lifted in March.
More
Bank of Canada not ruling out larger rate increases to fight inflation
April 22, 2022 4:38 AM GMT+1
TORONTO, April 21 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada could consider a larger rate increase than the half-point move it made last week, as the central bank grapples with reining in inflation which is at a 31-year high, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday.
"I’m not going to rule anything out,” Macklem said, when asked if the central bank would consider increasing rates by more than 50 basis points (bps) in one go.
“We're prepared to be as forceful as needed and I'm really going to let those words speak for themselves.”
Macklem, who spoke to reporters from Washington where he attended G20/IMF meetings, also said supply pressures that have driven up prices globally are showing no signs of easing.
The Bank of Canada last week raised its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, its biggest single hike in more than two decades, and opened the door to lifting interest rates above a neutral setting, which it estimates at between 2% and 3%, for the first time in 14 years.
Then, earlier this week, official data showed inflation surged to 6.7% in March, far ahead of analysts' expectations.
That hot inflation coupled with Macklem comments prompted one Canadian to economist to revise up his call for the June 1 decision to 75 bps.
More
Britain's steelmakers scorched by white-hot power prices
April 22, 2022 6:18 AM GMT+1
CHESTERFIELD, England, April 22 (Reuters) - Steel boss James Brand raises his voice above the roar of metal being funnelled into a foundry furnace as he details how rampant costs have pushed him to raise his prices by 70%.
Yet he says that, despite this hefty hike, his customers in sectors including oil and gas, autos and construction are placing new orders at a record-breaking gallop. His order book has ballooned from the usual 4-6 weeks to 6 months.
Those clients anticipate further price rises at a time when the cost of pig iron and scrap metal is going through the roof, fuelled by the Ukraine war, and the vast amount of energy needed to melt the two inputs into cast iron has never been more expensive.
"With raw materials and costs escalating, customers are thinking, 'If I don't buy now, in two months it will be even more expensive,'" Brand said amid the heat, dust and hubbub of United Cast Bar's (UCB) factory in a part of northern England that once powered the Industrial Revolution.
"People are placing orders ahead, to try and fix as many costs as they can."
Having once struggled to increase prices at all, UCB is now reviewing them every month and gradually marking them up, extra costs that will seep into global production lines, further stoking inflation and a consumer cost-of-living crisis.
Yet Brand said despite the price rises, the pressures were still building on the business. Without giving full financial details, he said UCB's gross margin had dropped by about 6%.
Similar problems are being felt by steelmakers and other industrial companies across Europe. They're caused by rocketing power prices, driven by a supply squeeze, as well as ongoing COVID disruption and Russia's invasion of Ukraine - two countries that are both major producers of pig iron.
More
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-steelmakers-scorched-by-white-hot-power-prices-2022-04-22/
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Covid Whiplash: Now-Dominant BA.2 Variant Being Quickly Overtaken Across The U.S. By Yet Another Faster-Growing Omicron Offshoot, Says CDC
Fri, April 22, 2022, 1:41 AM
Just as most Americans have caught wind of the BA.2 variant of Omicron — which overtook the original Omicron as the dominant strain in the U.S. less than a month ago — another possibly faster-growing version of Omicron is quickly making inroads.
The new Omicron sublineage BA.2.12.1 now accounts for 19% of all new cases specifically sequenced for variants in the country, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. That means the strain — barely on the national radar two weeks ago — is now being identified in close to 1 in 5 newly-sequenced cases, up from 1.5% less than a month before on 3/19. Given that, Americans trying to keep up may be experiencing a form of variant whiplash.
Last week, when Deadline first reported on BA.2.12.1, the variant was tied to the parallel rise of another BA.2 sublineage, BA.2.12. Both are sublineages of the BA.2 variant, and thought to have a 23%–27% growth advantage over BA.2, according to the New York State Department of Public Health. BA.2 is thought to have an estimated 30% growth advantage over the original Omicron.
New York officials announced last week, seemingly out of nowhere that “For the month of March, BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 rose to collectively comprise more than 70% prevalence in Central New York and more than 20% prevalence in the neighboring Finger Lakes region. Data for April indicate that levels in Central New York are now above 90%.”
Then: “State health officials have determined that these highly contagious new variants are likely contributing to the rising cases.”
At the end of the first week of March, the 7-day average number of daily new cases in the state was well under 2,000. By April 13, it was over 5,000, according to the New York Times, with the total number of new positive cases that day, according to state data, at 6,546. Since then, while case numbers have risen and fallen with fluctuating daily test numbers, the 7-day average test positivity in New York has risen from 4.6% to 5.9%.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-whiplash-now-dominant-ba-004116151.html
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Sapphire fiber sensor can withstand the rigors of fusion and flight
Nick Lavars April 21, 2022
Scientists at Oxford University have developed a novel sensor made of incredibly thin strands of sapphire that can withstand extreme heat and radiation. The breakthrough is billed as a solution to a 20-year problem in the field, and the scientists behind it believe their durable new sensor could be put to work in the harsh environment of nuclear fusion reactors and enable more streamlined air travel.
The type of sensor at the heart of this research is known as a Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor, which can be used to monitor things like temperature and strain in optical communications systems. These typically come in the form of silica optical fiber, but this design begins to run into trouble at operating temperatures of less than 1,000 °C (1,832 °F).
FBGs made from sapphire fibers promise greater stability at higher temperatures, having been demonstrated at up to 1,900 °C (3,452 °F), which could see them put to use in extreme environments such as monitoring gas turbines in jet engines. In addition, sapphire is resistant to radiation, which makes it suitable for use in nuclear reactors and in space.
----To overcome this, the Oxford team used femtosecond lasers to etch a channel along the length of the sapphire fiber to guide the light on a straight and narrow path, with the groove measuring one-hundredth of a millimeter in diameter. This resulted in a sapphire FBG sensor predominantly reflecting a single wavelength of light.
"These sapphire optical fibers will have many different potential applications within the extreme environments of a fusion energy power plant," said Rob Skilton, from the UK Atomic Energy Authority (AEA). "This technology has the potential to significantly increase the capabilities of future sensor and robotic maintenance systems in this sector, helping UKAEA in its mission to deliver safe, sustainable, low carbon fusion power to the grid."
More
This weekend’s musical diversion. A hunting horn musical diversion. Approx. 15 minutes long.
Johannes Matthias Sperger - Concerto for Corno da caccia in E-flat major
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0V6Ldf0EQY
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 21 minutes.
Now That's Teamwork! || Game of The Year?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wm-X1ElALAI
This week’s maths update. Approx. 20 minutes.
Phi and the TRIBONACCI monster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7SnRPubg-g
Finally, how Noble are you? [Brit style.] Approx. 6 ½ minutes. I usually get called by my title “Hey, you!”
Ranks of Nobility, Explained
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Op8fEbxgqxY
Give a man a gun and he will rob a bank.
Give a man a bank and he will rob everyone.
Wall Street Adage.
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