Baltic Dry Index. 2357 -01 Brent Crude 104.59
Spot Gold 1917
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 04/04/22 World 491,805,260
Deaths 6,176,195
“When I used to read fairy tales, I fancied that kind of thing never happened, and now here I am in the middle of one!”
Fed Chairman Powell, with apologies to Alice.
In the stock casinos this morning, more gains as the great disconnect from our new global reality continues.
But I suspect the great disconnect will not last long in the face of our fast arriving stagflation and an all too real rising global food crisis.
Chinese tech stocks jump as Hong Kong leads gains among Asia-Pacific markets
SINGAPORE — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led gains among the major Asia-Pacific markets on Monday as Chinese tech stocks in the city jumped.
In morning trade, the Hang Seng index gained 1.42% as shares of Tencent surged 2.06%. Other Chinese tech stocks also rose, with Alibaba up 2.83% while NetEase soared 4.43%.
The city’s chief executive Carrie Lam announced she will not be pursuing a second term in office.
Markets in mainland China are closed on Monday and Tuesday this week for holidays.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan swung between positive and negative territory, last slipping 0.14% as shares of Fast Retailing dropped 2.04%. The Topix index climbed 0.06%.
South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.33%.Elsewhere in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.29%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.55% higher.
A closely watched part of U.S. Treasury yields inverted on Friday as short-term rates jumped following the release of jobs data stateside, raising concerns over a potential recession on the horizon.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield last sat at 2.4152%, while the rate on the 2-year Treasury note was at 2.4808%. Yields move inversely to prices, with 1 basis point equal to 0.01%.
Yield curve inversions have historically happened ahead of recessions, though many economists believe the curve needs to stay inverted for a substantial amount of time before it gives a valid signal.
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In European war economic fallout news, bad news upon bad news bordering on economic anarchy. And all because US and European diplomacy failed or was never seriously attempted.
Kremlin warns West: rouble-for-gas scheme is the 'prototype'
April 3, 2022 1:55 PM GMT+1
LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin's rouble payment scheme for natural gas is the prototype that the world's largest country will extend to other major exports because the West has sealed the decline of the U.S. dollar by freezing Russian assets, the Kremlin said.
Russia's economy is facing the gravest crisis since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union after the United States and its allies imposed crippling sanctions due to Putin's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Putin's main economic response so far was an order on March 23 for Russian gas exports to be paid in roubles, however the scheme allows purchasers to pay in the contracted currency which is then exchanged into roubles by Gazprombank.
"It is the prototype of the system," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia's Channel One state television about the rouble for gas payment system.
"I have no doubt that it will be extended to new groups of goods," Peskov said. He gave no time frame for such a move.
Peskov said that the West's decision to freeze $300 billion of the central bank's reserves was a "robbery" that would have already accelerated a move away from reliance on the U.S. dollar and the euro as global reserve currencies.
The Kremlin, he said, wanted a new system to replace the contours of the Bretton Woods financial architecture established by the Western powers in 1944.
"It is obvious that - even if this is currently a distant prospect - that we will come to a some new system - different from the Bretton Woods system," Peskov said.
The West's sanctions on Russia, he said, had "accelerated the erosion of confidence in the dollar and euro."
---- Russian officials have repeatedly said the West's attempt to isolate one of the world's biggest producers of natural resources is an irrational act that will lead to soaring prices for consumers and tip Europe and the United States into recession.
Russia has long sought to reduce dependence on the U.S. currency, though its main exports - oil, gas and metals - are priced in dollars on global markets. Globally, the dollar is by far the most traded currency, followed by the euro, yen and British pound.
https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-warns-west-rouble-for-gas-scheme-is-prototype-2022-04-03/
Slovak minister says paying in roubles an option, country needs gas
April 3, 2022 8:10 PM GMT+1
PRAGUE, April 3 (Reuters) - The economy minister of Slovakia, which relies on Russian gas for around 85% of its demand, said the country could not be cut off from Russian gas flows and if it had to pay in roubles it would, although it backed taking a common European Union stance.
Russia has demanded payment for gas in roubles, but the European Commission said on Friday European companies whose supply contracts stipulate payment in euros or dollars should not meet this demand.
"The gas (flow) must not stop," Slovak Economy Minister Richard Sulik said in a Sunday debate show on public broadcaster RTVS. "If there is a condition to pay in roubles, then we pay in roubles."
Sulik added Slovakia would continue to work on a common approach with the EU.
Slovakia said this week state gas company SPP had paid its March invoice for gas in euros, as stipulated in its contract.
Sulik said the country still had six weeks to find a solution before the next gas payment is due May 20, but Slovakia could not go without deliveries.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday the change would not affect settlements until later this month.
The threat of gas shortages comes after the peak demand European winter season, but it comes as European businesses and households are already facing a huge surge in energy prices. read more
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Ukraine's economy could contract 40% in 2022, ministry says
April 2, 2022 8:59 AM GMT+1
April 2 (Reuters) - Ukraine's economy shrank 16% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year and could contract 40% in 2022 as a result of Russia's invasion, the economy ministry said in a statement on Saturday, citing preliminary estimates.
"Areas in which remote work is impossible have suffered the most," it said.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Ukraine's grain exports held up as railways struggle to cope, analyst says
April 2, 2022 4:10 PM GMT+1
April 2 (Reuters) - Ukraine's railways are struggling with a backlog of grain wagons on the country's western border as traders look for alternative export routes after Russia's invasion blocked off the main Black Sea ports, analyst APK-Inform said on Saturday.
Ukraine was the world's fourth-largest grain exporter in the 2020/21 season, according to International Grains Council data, with most of its commodities shipped out via the Black Sea
But with war raging along much of the coast, traders are scrambling to transport more grain by rail.
APK-Inform said Ukrainian Railways had opened 12 terminals for traders, but wagons were backing up and the railways would need two or three weeks to process them and send to consumers.
"Traders are continuing to search for the possibility of redirecting exports to the EU by rail or via Romanian ports, but the key barriers remain limited bandwidth logistics ability and its high cost," APK-Inform said.
It said the cost of delivering Ukrainian grain to the Romanian port of Constanta was 120-150 euros ($133-$166) per tonne. Before the war, traders paid around $40 to transport grain to Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
Analysts have said Ukraine, which had exported 43 million tonnes of grain from the start of the season in July up to the invasion in late February, could export only around 1 million tonnes in the next three months, due to logistics difficulties.
Before the war, the government forecast grain exports could reach 65 million tonnes this season.
GLOBAL ECONOMY Global factory activity slows as Ukraine crisis, inflation bite
April 1, 2022 9:53 AM GMT+1
- European factory growth slowed in March - PMI
- China's factory activity slumped in March - private survey
- Japan's activity expands but export orders slump
LONDON/TOKYO, April 1 (Reuters) - Global factory activity slowed in March as Russia's invasion of Ukraine tightened supply chain bottlenecks, dampened demand and whacked confidence, while soaring energy costs drove a broader surge in prices, surveys showed on Friday.
Uncertainty caused by the invasion, combined with an intensifying cost-of-living crisis, suggests the euro zone's manufacturing industry could slide into a recession this quarter.
"Today's figures show the worsening supply chain situation is having a major impact on the industry, with rates of both input costs and selling price inflation currently far above anything previously seen," said Thomas Rinn, global industrial lead at Accenture.
"The ever-surging cost of power, freight delays and diversions, topped by new COVID-19 lockdowns in China, have all contributed to increased costs and raw material shortages - leaving European manufacturers faced with unprecedented disruption."
S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone fell to a 14-month low of 56.5 in March from February's 58.2, below an initial "flash" estimate of 57.0 but still well above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.
German manufacturers reported slower growth and far more pessimistic expectations for factory activity, and French manufacturing growth eased a bit more than forecast.
Confidence indicators in the region have plummeted and the euro zone future output PMI plunged to its lowest reading since May 2020. read more
In Britain, outside the common currency area, industry expanded at the weakest pace in 13 months and price pressures, which had previously shown some signs of moderating, worsened.
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China's farmers face fertiliser crunch as COVID measures hamper deliveries
April 1, 2022 7:16 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, April 1 (Reuters) - China's COVID-19 curbs are disrupting the supply of fertiliser to the country's northeastern bread basket just a month away from spring planting, threatening this year's corn and soybean crops if not resolved soon.
Farmers typically have fertiliser prepared in early April before applying to fields later in the month during planting. But China's worst outbreak of COVID since the pandemic began two years ago have triggered strict controls on movement of people and goods, sharply slowing deliveries.
Fertiliser producers, dealers, analysts and associations said rules requiring truck drivers to take COVID tests every 24 hours, a need to obtain special passes to deliver goods and factory suspensions due to local COVID cases are all contributing to tight supplies.
"Production of nitrogen fertiliser and fertiliser preparation for spring planting has been greatly affected," the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association said this week.
Jilin, China's second-largest corn-growing province, is among the hardest hit after the local government banned movement of people across the provincial border, and within, from Mar. 14 as COVID cases hit thousands daily.
"Fertiliser supply here couldn't be tighter," said a Jilin-based dealer surnamed Yan, who is short more than 2,000 tonnes of the critical crop nutrient for his customers.
The bottleneck comes on top of record fertiliser prices, driven up by strong global demand, high energy costs and sanctions on major producers Russia and Belarus. read more
Despite efforts by Beijing to cool prices, China's wholesale fertiliser index (CFCI) is 40% higher than a year ago.
That had discouraged many dealers from building stocks in recent months, catching them short in their busiest sales period.
Yao, a dealer in Liaoning, said he's short about a third of his needs.
The transport curbs are especially problematic for the northeast, which does not have enough local fertiliser production and relies on deliveries from other provinces.
The northeast's Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces and Inner Mongolia region produce more than 40% of China's corn and half its soybeans.
Prices of corn and soybeans are hovering at record highs.
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Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
World's COVID-19 cases, deaths lowest since Omicron strain emerged
April 3, 2022 / 2:28 PM
April 3 (UPI) -- COVID-19 cases and deaths have fallen in the past week on every continent except Oceania, dropping to levels not seen since before the highly contagious Omicron variant emerged last December
In all, a total of 491,255,721 cases have been reported worldwide, including 9,368,249 in the past week, for a 15% drop in tracking by Worldometers.info on Sunday. And deaths rose by 25,587 in an 18% weekly decline for a total of 6,175,357.
Last week, daily cases dropped to 1,089,377 on Monday, the fewest since 1,071,128 Dec. 23 and 2,812 deaths last Sunday, the lowest since 2,628 March 25, 2020. The 3,665 daily deaths average in the past week is the lowest since March of the first year of the pandemic. The cases' weekly average of 1,391,477 is the lowest since 1,366,641 Dec. 31.
---- The Omicron variant first was reported in South Africa on Nov. 25.
Africa had the biggest weekly decline in cases at 29% for a cumulative 11,763,022 followed by South America at 27% with 56,198,862, Asia 16% with 140,833,808, Europe 14% with 180,155,859, North America at 8% with 96,655,321 and Oceania rising 16% with 5,648,128.
In deaths, Africa declined 50% with the total 252,869 followed by North America 24% with 1,443,907, South America 28% with 1,288,729, Asia 23% with 1,404,913, Europe 9% with 1,775,588 and Oceania increasing 16% with 9,336.
Asia
South Korea reported the most cases last week at 2,142,204 though it was a 13% drop. And deaths were 2,312 in an 8% decline. Through last Dec. 31, only 630,748 cases had been reported. Sunday's increase was 234,301 with the record 621,328.
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Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene gets enhanced by flashing
Process customizes one-, two- or three-element doping for applications
Date: March 31, 2022
Source: Rice University
Summary: Scientists who developed the flash Joule heating process to make graphene have found a way to produce doped graphene to customize it for applications.
Flashing graphene into existence from waste was merely a good start. Now Rice University researchers are customizing it.
The Rice lab of chemist James Tour has modified its flash Joule heating process to produce doped graphene that tailors the atom-thick material's structures and electronic states to make them more suitable for optical and electronic nanodevices. The doping process adds other elements to graphene's 2D carbon matrix.
The process reported in the American Chemical Society journal ACS Nano shows how graphene can be doped with a single element or with pairs or trios of elements. The process was demonstrated with single elements boron, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus and sulfur, a two-element combination of boron and nitrogen, and a three-element mix of boron, nitrogen and sulfur.
The process takes about one second, is both catalyst- and solvent-free, and is entirely dependent on "flashing" a powder that combines the dopant elements with carbon black.
Doping graphene is possible through bottom-up approaches like chemical vapor deposition or synthetic organic processes, but these usually yield products in trace amounts or produce defects in the graphene. The Rice process is a promising route to produce large quantities of "heteroatom-doped" graphene quickly and without solvents, catalysts or water.
"This opens up a new realm of possibilities for flash graphene," Tour said. "Once we learned to make the original product, we knew the ability to directly synthesize doped turbostratic graphene would lead to many more options for useful products. These new atoms added to the graphene matrix will permit stronger composites to be made since the new atoms will bind better to the host material, such as concrete, asphalt or plastic. The added atoms will also modify the electronic properties, making them better-suited for specific electronic and optical devices."
Graphene is turbostratic when stacks of the 2D honeycomblike lattices don't align with one another. This makes it easier to disperse the nanoscale sheets in a solution, producing soluble graphene that is much simpler to incorporate into other materials, Tour said.
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“If there’s no meaning in it,” said the G-7, “that saves a world of trouble, you know, as we needn’t try to find any.”
With apologies to Alice.
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