Baltic Dry Index. 2357 -01 Brent Crude 104.39
Spot Gold 1926
"No one starts a war or rather, no one in his sense ought to do so without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by the war and how he intends to conduct it."
Carl von Clausewitz.
Moscow accuses Ukraine of conducting airstrike inside Russia
Fri, April 1, 2022, 2:23 PM
Moscow accused Ukraine of sending two helicopters to strike a fuel storage depot in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday. If confirmed, this would be the first attack on Russian soil since the war began on Feb. 24.
The governor of the border city said that two Ukrainian helicopters crossed into Russia flying at low altitude before launching airstrikes at an oil storage facility just 25 miles from the border. Footage of the alleged attack shows several missiles being fired at the building before it erupts into flames. The video has not been independently verified.
“There are casualties,” said Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod. “Two people. They’re employees of the oil depot. They’ve been given first aid, and their lives are not in danger.” He added, “We are starting to resettle the residents of Pochtovaya, Makarenko and Konstantin Zaslonov streets to a safer location.”
The Russian Emergency Ministry said that 170 firefighters battled the enormous fire, which was started around 6 a.m. local time. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said he could not confirm or deny reports of Ukraine’s involvement in the strike, as he did not have military information.
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Ukraine denies attacking fuel depot in Russian city Belgorod
Fri, April 1, 2022, 9:53 PM
Moscow has accused Ukraine of carrying out an air attack on a fuel depot in Russia in the first claim of an air strike on its soil since Vladimir Putin began his invasion in late February.
A fiery explosion on Friday rocked the fuel depot in the city of Belgorod, 21 miles from the border of Ukraine, which is one of Russia’s main logistics hubs for the war.
A Russian official claimed two Ukrainian military helicopters were involved, but Kyiv denied carrying out an attack. “For some reason they say that we did it, but in fact this does not correspond with reality,” said Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security council.
Russia has said before that it has experienced cross-border shelling, but not an incursion of its airspace. However, western officials have repeatedly warned Moscow could carry out “false flag” operations designed to justify its assault on Ukraine.
Ukraine defence ministry spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said: “Ukraine is currently conducting a defensive operation against Russian aggression on the territory of Ukraine, and this does not mean that Ukraine is responsible for every catastrophe on Russia’s territory.”
Any airborne attack inside Russia would have been likely to require skilful flying to avoid the country’s air defences.
Video footage from Reuters showed what looked like several missiles being fired from a low altitude, followed by an explosion, but the claims could not be independently verified.
More
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-strikes-fuel-depot-russia-104618192.html
U.S. commits $300 million in military hardware, weapons to Ukraine
Sat, April 2, 2022, 2:42 AM
The U.S. Defense Department on Friday announced it will fulfill a virtual wish list for Ukrainian forces battling Russia's invasion.
The promised goods, worth an estimated $300 million in additional assistance to Ukraine, include laser-guided rocket systems; previously announced armed drones as well as Puma and counter-unmanned drones; armored off-road vehicles; ammunition; machine guns; night-vision devices and more, the department said in a statement.
The hardware will boost the U.S. security commitment to Ukraine to a value of more than $2.3 billion since the beginning of President Joe Biden's administration, the Defense Department said.
That figure includes more than $1.6 billion in security assistance since Russia’s invasion began Feb. 24. The Biden administration and NATO have been careful about U.S. military support for Ukraine for fear of being seen by Russia as attacking it by proxy and creating an act of war.
The concern was in play as NATO rejected Ukraine's call for air space protection against Russian aircraft, which could involve direct targeting of those vehicles by the U.S. and allies.
The Pentagon draws its authority for the planned purchases and shipments from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-commits-300-million-military-014235000.html
Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin's Invasion
Fri, April 1, 2022, 7:32 PM
The stream of anti-war letters to a lawmaker in St. Petersburg, Russia, has dried up. Some Russians who had criticized the Kremlin have turned into cheerleaders for the war. Those who publicly oppose it have found the word “traitor” scrawled on their apartment door.
Five weeks into President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, there are signs that the Russian public’s initial shock has given way to a mix of support for their troops and anger at the West. On television, entertainment shows have been replaced by extra helpings of propaganda, resulting in a round-the-clock barrage of falsehoods about the “Nazis” who run Ukraine and American-funded Ukrainian bioweapons laboratories.
Polls and interviews show that many Russians now accept Putin’s contention that their country is under siege from the West and had no choice but to attack. The war’s opponents are leaving the country or keeping quiet.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/shaken-first-many-russians-now-183217391.html
Apocalyptic price of Ukraine's victory in Irpin
Issued on:
rpin (Ukraine) (AFP) – The last survivors in the ruins of Irpin have just one word to describe the Russians who have retreated after one of the pivotal battles of the war in Ukraine.
"Fascists!" rages Bogdan, 58, as he and his friends walk a dog through a deserted town centre that is free of shelling for the first time in a month.
His friends nod in agreement.
"Every 20 to 30 seconds we heard mortar shots. And so all day long. Just destruction," the tent construction worker told AFP journalists who reached Irpin on Friday.
It used to be a smart commuter town in the pine forests on Kyiv's northwestern edge.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220401-apocalyptic-price-of-ukraine-s-victory-in-irpin
In other news.
Wall Street posts modest gains as jobs report keeps Fed hikes on track
April 1, 2022 9:18 PM GMT+1
Unemployment drops to 3.6% vs estimate of 3.7%
· Nonfarm payrolls rose by 431,000 jobs last month
· GameStop seeks share split
· Dow up 0.4%, S&P 500 up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.3%
NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 rose modestly to kick off the second quarter on Friday, as the monthly jobs report indicated a strong labor market and is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on track to maintain its hawkish policy stance.
The Labor Department's employment report showed a rapid hiring pace by employers while wages continued to climb, although not enough to keep pace with inflation. read more
U.S. employers added 431,000 jobs in March, which was shy of the 490,000 estimate but still showed strong job gains. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, a new two-year low while average hourly earnings rose 5.6% on a year-over-year basis. read more
"Job gains were broad, more people are going back to the office," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
"If other data between now and the next Fed meeting stay this rosy, the Fed will likely feel comfortable hiking by 50 basis points and announcing an aggressive rundown of its balance sheet."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 139.92 points, or 0.4%, to 34,818.27, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 15.45 points, or 0.34%, to 4,545.86 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 40.98 points, or 0.29%, to 14,261.50.
----For the week, the Dow slipped 0.1%, the S&P edged up 0.1% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.7%.
Expectations for a 50-basis point interest rate hike at the central bank's May meeting stand at 73.3%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. At its March meeting, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis 25 basis points, its first hike since 2018, and a host of central bank policymakers have indicated they are prepared for bigger rate hikes.
----In the wake of the payrolls report, U.S. Treasury yields jumped and a closely watched part of the yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes , seen by many as a reliable indicator of a recession, inverted for the third time this week.
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-edge-higher-with-investors-jobs-report-watch-2022-04-01/
"Everything in war is very simple. But the simplest thing is difficult."
Carl von Clausewitz.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Cucumber crisis: surging energy prices leave British glasshouses empty
March 31, 2022 3:33 PM GMT+1
ROYDON, England, March 31 (Reuters) - In a small corner of south-east England, vast glasshouses stand empty, the soaring cost of energy preventing their owner from using heat to grow cucumbers for the British market.
Elsewhere in the country growers have also failed to plant peppers, aubergines and tomatoes after a surge in natural gas prices late last year was exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, making the crops economically unviable.
The hit to UK farms, which need gas to counter the country's inclement weather, is one of the myriad ways the energy crisis and invasion have hit food supplies around the world, with global grain production and edible oils also under threat.
In Britain it is likely to push food prices higher at a time of historic inflation, and threaten the availability of goods such as the quintessentially British cucumber sandwich served at the Wimbledon tennis tournament and big London hotels.
While last year it cost about 25 pence to produce a cucumber in Britain, that has now doubled and is set to hit 70 pence when higher energy prices fully kick in, trade body British Growers says.
----Last year he paid 40-50 pence a therm for natural gas. Last week it was 2.25 pounds a therm, having briefly hit a record 8 pounds in the wake of Russia's invasion.
Fertiliser prices have tripled versus last year, while the cost of carbon dioxide - used both to aid growing and in packaging - and hard-to-attain labour have also shot up.
"We are now in an unprecedented situation where the cost increases have far outstripped a grower's ability to do anything about them," said Jack Ward, head of British Growers.
It means a massive contraction for the industry, threatening Britain's future food security, and further price rises for UK consumers already facing a bigger inflation hit than other countries in Europe following Brexit.
UK inflation hit a 30-year high of 6.2% in February and is forecast to approach 9% in late 2022, contributing to the biggest fall in living standards since at least the 1950s.
----The National Farmers' Union says the UK is sleepwalking into a food security crisis. It warns that UK production of peppers could fall from 100 million last year to 50 million this year, with cucumbers down from 80 million to 35 million.
In winter, the UK has typically imported around 90% of crops like cucumbers and tomatoes, but has been nearly self-sufficient in the summer.
The Lea Valley Growers Association, whose members produce about three-quarters of Britain's cucumber and sweet pepper crop, said about 90% did not plant in January, while half have still not planted and will not plant if gas prices remain high.
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Ukraine’s other fight: Growing food for itself and the world
---- “The front line is full of our best people. And now they are dying,” said the mother, Maria. In tears, she sat in her son’s bedroom in their warm brick home, his medals and photos spread before her.
The Pavlovych family knows a second front line in Russia’s war runs through the farmland here in western Ukraine, far from the daily resistance against the invasion. It is an uphill battle for farmers to feed not only their country but the world.
Ukraine and Russia account for a third of global wheat and barley exports, leaving millions across North Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia facing the potential loss of access to the affordable supplies they need for bread and noodles. The war has raised the specter of food shortages and political instability in countries reliant on Ukrainian wheat, including Indonesia, Egypt, Yemen and Lebanon.
It is unclear how many farmers will be able to plant or tend to their harvests with the war raging, forcing those like Pavlovych to the front lines. And the challenges keep growing.
Infrastructure — from ports and roads to farm equipment — is snarled and damaged, meaning critical supplies like fuel are difficult to get and routes for export almost impossible to reach. Fertilizer producers are paralyzed by nearby fighting, and a prolonged winter may disrupt spring yields.
“How can we sow under the blows of Russian artillery? How can we sow when the enemy deliberately mines the fields, destroys fuel bases?” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a recent address. “We do not know what harvest we will have and whether we’ll be able to export.”
An airport not far from the Pavlovych home was bombed in the early days of the war, sending unexploded ordnance into nearby fields now planted with warning signs instead of corn.
The thudding sounds of efforts to safely dispose of the ordnance could be heard last week beside the younger Pavlovych’s flower-strewn grave.
There is no time to lose, even as families mourn. The northwestern Lviv region near the border with Poland, far from the heart of what is known as Ukraine’s breadbasket in the south, is being asked to plant all the available fields it can, said Ivan Kilgan, head of the regional agricultural association.
Still, the region won’t be able to reach its pre-war levels.
“We are expecting to produce more than 50 million tons of cereals. Previously, we produced more than 80 million tons. It’s logical. Less land, less harvest,” Kilgan said.
Standing in a frigid barn containing more than 1,000 tons of wheat and soy, Kilgan vowed to send tons of flour to feed Ukraine’s army. He’s planting 2,000 hectares (nearly 5,000 acres) this year, up from 1,200 hectares (around 3,000 acres).
And yet he’s short on fertilizer. For the extra production he plans, he needs more than double the 300 tons of fertilizer he has.
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More and more it looks like the USA funded illegal in the USA “gain of function” virus research in the Wuhan Institute of virology with NIH funds laundered through the NYC based EcoHealth Alliance, and then when it escaped the Wuhan lab, orchestrated a massive attempted coverup.
NIH Deleted Info From Wuhan Lab on CCP Virus Genetic Sequencing, Watchdog’s FOIA Finds
By March 29, 2022 Updated: March 30, 2022
National Institutes of Health (NIH) documents obtained by a nonprofit watchdog in a federal court suit reveal that the agency deleted CCP virus genetic sequencing information from the Wuhan Institute of Virology at the Chinese lab’s request.
The Arlington, Virginia-based Empower Oversight Whistleblowers and Researchers (EO) obtained, as a result of a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request and lawsuit, more than 230 pages of documents dating from 2020 that include emails, memoranda, and other correspondence among and between the lab and multiple NIH officials.
The CCP virus, also known as the novel coronavirus, was first detected in China in late 2019, before it spread worldwide. Since the first death from the virus in the United States was reported in January 2020, an estimated 1 million Americans and 6 million globally have reportedly succumbed to the virus.
Controversy has raged in the United States over whether the virus originated in an animal-to-human transfer in a Wuhan-area wet market, as Chinese officials have insisted, or if it escaped from the Wuhan lab where research was being done on such viruses, some of which was being supported with NIH funds through the New York-based nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance.
Among the NIH officials prominently mentioned in the documents are then-NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins and National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Dr. Anthony Fauci, who actively participated in the discussions and decision-making described in the materials obtained by EO.
----After some discussion about what would be deleted, the NIH concluded the discussion by reassuring the Wuhan researcher that it “had withdrawn everything.”
The documents also indicate, according to EO, that after researcher Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, “alerted NIH about the deleted sequences, [Collins] and [Fauci] hosted a Sunday afternoon Zoom meeting. The invitation Collins sent out for the meeting asks invitees to read Bloom’s [June 22, 2021] preprint paper closely and provide their ‘advice on the interpretation and significance of’ it.”
According to EO, the documents show that “Professor Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center later sent the group an email stating that the deleted data seemed to support the idea that the pandemic began outside the Huanan market in Wuhan and that the matter must be analyzed properly.”
If the virus’s spread began outside of the market, it would undermine the official Chinese government claim, and thus reinforce claims of experts in the United States and elsewhere that the pandemic likely escaped from the Wuhan lab.
The EO report also claims that NIH communications staff members were using off-the-record emails to advise “reporters toward more favorable coverage concerning termination of public access to the sequences by The Washington Post, and away from coverage by The New York Times, whose ‘tone’ had been criticized in communications among NIH officials.”
More
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Bill Gates and Blackrock are backing the start-up behind hydropanels that make water out of thin air
Published Mon, Mar 28 2022 5:16 PM EDT Updated Mon, Mar 28 2022 8:05 PM EDT
They’re like solar panels, except instead of electricity, they produce water.
Source Global’s hydropanels create water out of thin air and bring it where it’s most needed. CEO Cody Friesen invented the panels in 2014 at Arizona State University’s Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, where he’s on the faculty.
A year later, he turned the science into Source Global. The start-up’s panels cost about $2,000 a piece.
“We take sunlight and air and we can produce perfect drinking water essentially anywhere on the planet,” Friesen said. “And so we take water that has historically been probably humanity’s greatest challenge and turn it into a renewable resource that is perfect essentially everywhere.”
Source’s hydropanels take in water vapor from the air and pack it into a form that’s about 10,000 times more concentrated than in the atmosphere. Using the warmth of the sun, the system converts the molecules into liquid water, which is collected in a reservoir inside the panel and then released as pure water.
By 2018, Friesen had installed an array of 40 hydropanels in Kenya, where members of the Samburu Girls Foundation faced daily danger on their journeys to find water. They now have their own water source.
“We can now make perfect water, at your home, at your school, in your community in a way that is really bringing it into the 21st century,” said Friesen.
Source’s hydropanels are installed in 52 countries in 450 separate projects. The company has raised $150 million from investors including Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures, BlackRock, Duke Energy and the Lightsmith Group.
This type of technology is desperately needed in places like India, where an estimated 800,000 villages don’t have clean drinking water. Friesen cited World Health Organization, showing that by 2025 “half the world’s population will be in water stressed areas.”
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"Every age has its own kind of war, its own limiting conditions, and its own peculiar preconceptions."
Carl von Clausewitz.
This weekend’s musical diversion. Approx. 3 minutes.
Vivaldi: Concerto in G minor R. 576 / Marcon · Berliner Philharmoniker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwGJt0q-kRA
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Ding is On a Rampage! Overtakes Firouzja as World #2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5iDzNiqHrI
No maths update this week. This week, Napoleon's Retreat from Moscow 1812. Are you watching President Putin? Approx. 27 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNReCCShKJQ
"To introduce into the philosophy of war itself a principle of moderation would be an absurdity."
Carl Von Clausewitz.
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