Baltic Dry Index. 2055 -06 Brent Crude 100.35
Spot Gold 1943
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 11/04/22 World 499,188,71
Deaths 6,203,372
“The best laid schemes o' mice an' men / Gang aft a-gley.”
“To a Mouse,” by Robert Burns.
In the Asian stock casinos, a poor start to the week. China’s producer inflation and consumer inflation indexes both rose more than expected.
In better, well slightly better news, crude oil prices slipped down by about two dollars a barrel. No one will notice when filling up their car.
In political news, to no one’s surprise, French President Macron will face Marine Le Pen in a run-off election in two weeks time.
In war news, Russia is about to start its new Donbas campaign, probably this week. Main stream media are positing it’s intended to all be over by Russia’s annual Victory Day celebrations on May 9th, celebrating the USSR victory over Hitler’s Germany. Well maybe, but the best laid plans of mice and men comes to mind.
Below, Asia gets off to a rocky start.
Chinese indexes drop at least 2% after data shows China producer inflation surging
SINGAPORE — Chinese stocks led losses in Asia-Pacific markets in Monday trade as investors reacted to China’s inflation data for March.
The Shanghai composite was down 1.75% while the Shenzhen component tumbled 2.74%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped 2.45%. Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio plunged more than 8% after the firm announced a suspension in production due to disruptions at its supply chain partners as a result of Covid.
China’s producer inflation for March was higher than expected. The producer price index surged 8.3% as compared with a year ago, official data showed Monday, above expectations for a 7.9% increase in a Reuters poll.
Chinese consumer inflation also rose more than expected in March, with the consumer price index climbing 1.5% year-on-year. That was above expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.2% increase.
The data release comes as mainland China is fighting to control its worst wave of Covid since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020.
“I think the more notable fact is the big gap between CPI and PPI, and that indicates that pricing power amongst most companies in China is weak and they’re taking a hit on margins,” Ramiz Chelat, portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.
“Given the infectiousness of omicron, we could see more localized lockdowns being a recurring theme,” he said. “We think you need to be very selective in China, look for companies that can deliver in a growth-challenged environment.”
Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 in Japan slipped 0.8% while the Topix index shed 0.63%. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.35%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 bucked the overall trend regionally as it climbed slightly.
----Oil prices were lower in the afternoon of Asia trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures down 2.33% to $100.39 per barrel. U.S. crude futures shed 2.39% to $95.91 per barrel.
More
In other news, western sanctions, plus stealing the Russian central bank’s assets held abroad, are rapidly pushing Russia into an international bond default as intended.
But the geniuses behind this failure of diplomacy, needless new European war, need to be careful what they wish for. When Russia defaults the holders of many, if not most of those defaulting bonds, will be looking for compensation from Credit Default Swap contracts, the financial companies that recommended the bonds and ultimately, those western governments that deliberately triggered the default.
Russia’s First Default in a Century Looks All But Inevitable Now
Sat, April 9, 2022, 8:30 a.m.
Russia’s first external default in a century now looks all but inevitable after another brutal week for the country’s finances.
First, the Treasury halted dollar debt payments from Russia’s accounts in U.S. banks, ramping up its restrictions on the country. Then, when an attempted hard-currency payment was blocked, Russia breached the terms on two bonds by paying investors rubles instead of dollars.
That pushed the countdown clock a step closer to default. It’s been ticking since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, and the U.S. and others swiped back with a clampdown on banks, companies and oligarchs. A freeze on the central bank’s foreign reserves unplugged Russia from the global financial system, making it the world’s most-sanctioned nation in a matter of days.
----Russia last defaulted in 1998, but on domestic debt. The last one on foreign debt was in the aftermath of the 1917 revolution. S&P said Saturday that it had declared Russia in a selective default after it used rubles to make a payment on a dollar-denominated bond on April 4.
There’s still uncertainty about what’s next and further twists can’t be ruled out.
The dollar bonds that were serviced in rubles this week have 30-day grace periods, giving Finance Minister Anton Siluanov time to find a workaround or push his argument that this isn’t a default because a payment was technically made. This week he said the rubles transferred in lieu of dollars can be converted for creditors just as soon as the reserves freeze is eased.
“Western countries are trying in every possible way to make Russia declare default,” Siluanov told state news service Tass this week. He also said Russia will use “other mechanisms” to make payments.
In the meantime, the financial world waits for an official judgment on whether a default event has occurred.
But where that decision comes from is unclear. After a string of cuts that pushed Russia deep into junk, ratings firms are abandoning coverage because of an EU ban on providing ratings to the country. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have already withdrawn, S&P Global said in its statement Saturday that it will respect the April 15 EU ban and all its ratings on Russia were subsequently withdrawn.
There’s also the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee of buy-side and sell-side firms that vote on whether a credit event has taken place and whether default swaps have been triggered. The committee is already reviewing a question on the possible default of the state-owned railway operator, which failed to pay bond interest on time in March.
“If Russia does not manage to organize a payment route to bondholders within the grace period and no dollars arrive into the accounts, then it is a default, the CDS will trigger,” said Lutz Roehmeyer, chief investment officer at Berlin-based Capitulum Asset Management.
More
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-first-default-century-looks-073000013.html
Are we witnessing the beginning of de-dollarization?
by Akhil Ramesh, opinion contributor - 04/09/22 11:00 AM ET
2022 started with a surging omicron variant. A few weeks in, providing a respite, the variant subsided around the globe. However, as if the world was deprived of tragedy and was rejoicing for too long, weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to death and destruction in Ukraine and economic turmoil around the globe.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not comparable to any other invasion in history due to its geoeconomic significance. Both Ukraine and Russia are leading exporters of commodities such as crude, natural gas, iron and steel, wheat, and edible oils that have a direct impact on the inflation levels in major world economies.
----Adding fuel to fire, the U.S. chose the worst possible weapon to deter Russia — economic sanctions. By sanctioning Russia, the world’s third-largest producer of crude and largest supplier of wheat, the U.S. has set off dynamite that could burst into a recession in the next six months, as several economists have predicted.
However, the long-term challenge for the U.S. will be to keep the crown on the U.S. dollar’s head as the leading global reserve/fiat currency. The unilateral sanctions of the West against Russia had the unintended consequence of raising inflation levels in Europe, East Africa and South Asia, which were the largest importers of Russian wheat and energy. Given that seeking alternatives and establishing substitute supply chains takes time and capital, most economies are establishing different mechanisms to circumvent the sanctions. These range from using barter trade to trading in their own currencies over the dollar.
The latter is igniting a debate on the use of the dollar for global trade. Not necessarily among America’s steadfast allies but more so with countries that are on the fence about America’s global interventions. Countries such as Brazil, China, South Africa and India that are part of the BRICS grouping make up more than 24 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP) and 16 percent of world trade. Similarly, in Africa, which makes up 3 percent of global GDP and is predicted to grow six times in size by 2050, many countries will likely reconsider dollar trade.
----The hegemony of the U.S. dollar was reliant on America’s hegemonic status in the world. With the world moving toward multipolarity and with the U.S. no longer the world’s largest trading nation (it is China) the power and status of the dollar could be waning as well. Given the increasing role played by China, the European Union and other countries of the global south, the dollar might just be witnessing its descent.
It is a matter of when the U.S. dollar loses its dominance among global currencies — not will. The economic sanctions following the Russian invasion could have just accelerated that downfall.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Alarm bells ringing: British farmers warn out-of-control milk price rise may lead to dairy and cheese crisis
Saturday 09 April 2022 7:35 am
Brits will soon face a cheese shortage as spiralling production costs hit producers, farmers are warning this weekend.
A farming expert said many supermarkets are already experiencing dwindling supplies – and warned that things are going to get a lot worse.
Dairy Farmer Steve Evans from Pembrokeshire told GB News cheese is already in short supply across the country.
Evans said: “The supermarkets are a little bit twitchy, and are little bit scared about what’s going on because all of a sudden, supply’s tight. Milk goes into cheese, and the cheese stores and right now there is hardly any hard cheese in storage.”
---- His warning comes as one of the country’s leading farming experts told how a 50 per cent hike in the price of a pint of milk is likely to be permanent.
Paul Tompkins, vice chair of the National Union of Farmers dairy board, warned price increases were being driven by the spiralling price of feed, fuel and fertiliser and that higher shop prices for dairy products are likely to stay for the foreseeable future.
Tompkins, said that a 50 per cent increase in the price of milk to be imposed by the major supermarkets from next month is likely to stay for the long term.
He told GB News: “It takes me two and a half years to get a calf from being born on our farm to be actually producing milk and that incurs a lot of costs over those two years.
“Even if things were to return to normal, even if we were to reduce our costs now and be paid a fair price for milk, the implications of what we’re going through now is actually going to be for the medium to longer term.
More
JPMorgan Predicts That Global Commodities Prices May Rise by 40 Percent
By April 7, 2022 Updated: April 7, 2022
Commodities prices could rise by 40 percent and will likely continue to go higher, according to a note from JPMorgan Chase from April 7, as raw materials hit a record high last month following Western sanctions on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia is a main supplier for up to 10 percent of global energy production and about 20 percent of global wheat production.
The commodities affected include oil, which is already up 33 percent from the same month the previous year, while natural gas has gone up by 65 percent since the invasion roiled the markets.
Metals excluding gold, such as copper, are up by 7 percent from 2021, while wheat has surged upward by 33 percent.
The bank said it was reviewing the long-term positioning in commodities by global investors, and compared that to allocations in cash, stocks, and bonds.
“In dollar terms, the total open interest of commodity futures ex gold stands at around $1.4 trillion, which, although high by historical standards, looks much lower compared to the stock of equities, bonds, and cash in the world,” said the bank.
JPMorgan said that while investors’ implied commodity allocation of 0.72 percent is higher than the average seen after the Lehman Brothers crash, it is still well below the record highs of 2008 and 2011.
“In the current juncture, where the need for inflation hedges is more elevated, it is conceivable to see longer-term commodity allocations eventually rising above 1 percent of total financial assets globally, surpassing the previous highs seen during 2008 or 2011,” said the JPMorgan note.
Commodities in those categories could see another 30 to 40 percent upside from current levels, according to the bank’s experts, who said that while investors have increased their allocation to commodity assets over the past year above historical averages, they have plenty of room to overweigh them in their portfolios.
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Pfizer Hired 600 Employees Due to ‘Large Increase of Adverse Event Reports’: Document
By April 8, 2022 Updated: April 8, 2022
Pfizer hired 600 employees in the months after its COVID-19 vaccine was authorized in the United States due to the “large increase” of reports of side effects linked to the vaccine, according to a document prepared by the company.
Pfizer has “taken a multiple actions to help alleviate the large increase of adverse event reports,” according to the document. “This includes significant technology enhancements, and process and workflow solutions, as well as increasing the number of data entry and case processing colleagues.”
At the time when the document—from the first quarter of 2021—was sent to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Pfizer had onboarded about 600 extra full-time workers to deal with the jump.
“More are joining each month with an expected total of more than 1,800 additional resources by the end of June 2021,” Pfizer said.
The document was titled a “cumulative analysis of post-authorization adverse event reports” of Pfizer’s vaccine received through Feb. 28, 2021. It was approved by the FDA on April 30, 2021.
The document was not made public until the Public Health and Medical Professionals for Transparency sued the FDA after the agency claimed it needed decades to produce all the documents relating to the emergency use authorization granted to the company for the vaccine.
Under an agreement reached in February, the FDA must produce a certain number of pages each month.
The analysis of adverse event reports was previously disclosed to the health transparency group, but certain portions were redacted (pdf), including the number of workers Pfizer onboarded to deal with the jump in adverse event reports.
More
Shanghai hospital pays the price for China’s COVID response
BEIJING (AP) — A series of deaths at a hospital for elderly patients in Shanghai is underscoring the dangerous consequences of China’s stubborn pursuit of a zero-COVID approach amid an escalating outbreak in the city of 26 million people.
Multiple patients have died at the Shanghai Donghai Elderly Care hospital, relatives of patients told The Associated Press. They say their loved ones weren’t properly cared for after caretakers who came into contact with the virus were taken away to be quarantined, in adherence to the strict pandemic regulations, depleting the hospital of staff.
Family members have taken to social media to plea for help and answers and are demanding to see surveillance video from inside the facility after getting little to no information from the hospital.
The conditions and deaths at the hospital are a sharp rebuke of China’s strategy of sticking to a zero-COVID policy as it deals with the outbreak in Shanghai in which most of the infected people don’t have symptoms. With a focus on forcing positive cases and close contacts into designated collective quarantine facilities, the costs of zero-COVID may be outweighing the risk of getting sick.
On Saturday, Shanghai Vice Mayor Zong Ming said the lockdown could soon be lifted or eased in communities that report no positive cases within 14 days, after another round of citywide COVID-19 testing.
----Shanghai authorities have reported no deaths from this outbreak, but questions have been raised about the reliability of the data. A city health official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, said that the criteria for confirming cases and deaths are very strict and susceptible to political meddling.
It is unclear how many patients have died at the hospital, and whether any died of COVID-19. Families say they are talking with other families whose relatives have also died. An article from Chinese news outlet Caixin describing the deaths and infections was taken down shortly after it was published, apparently targeted by censors. Calls to the main office of Donghai Elderly Care went unanswered. The Shanghai government did not respond to a faxed request for comment.
More
https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-beijing-china-media-21525cacbd3a5d97f299363d63558ed2
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
How QR codes work and what makes them dangerous – a computer scientist explains
Published: April 7, 2022 1.26pm BST
Among the many changes brought about by the pandemic is the widespread use of QR codes, graphical representations of digital data that can be printed and later scanned by a smartphone or other device.
QR codes have a wide range of uses that help people avoid contact with objects and close interactions with other people, including for sharing restaurant menus, email list sign-ups, car and home sales information, and checking in and out of medical and professional appointments.
QR codes are a close cousin of the bar codes on product packaging that cashiers scan with infrared scanners to let the checkout computer know what products are being purchased.
Bar codes store information along one axis, horizontally. QR codes store information in both vertical and horizontal axes, which allows them to hold significantly more data. That extra amount of data is what makes QR codes so versatile.
Anatomy of a QR code
While it is easy for people to read Arabic numerals, it is hard for a computer. Bar codes encode alphanumeric data as a series of black and white lines of various widths. At the store, bar codes record the set of numbers that specify a product’s ID. Critically, data stored in bar codes is redundant. Even if part of the bar code is destroyed or obscured, it is still possible for a device to read the product ID.
QR codes are designed to be scanned using a camera, such as those found on your smartphone. QR code scanning is built into many camera apps for Android and iOS. QR codes are most often used to store web links; however, they can store arbitrary data, such as text or images.
When you scan a QR code, the QR reader in your phone’s camera deciphers the code, and the resulting information triggers an action on your phone. If the QR code holds a URL, your phone will present you with the URL. Tap it, and your phone’s default browser will open the webpage.
QR codes are composed of several parts: data, position markers, quiet zone and optional logos.
---- At its smallest this grid is 21 rows by 21 columns, and at its largest it is 177 rows by 177 columns. In most cases, QR codes use black squares on a white background, making the dots easy to distinguish. However, this is not a strict requirement, and QR codes can use any color or shape for the dots and background.
---- Are QR codes dangerous?
QR codes are not inherently dangerous. They are simply a way to store data. However, just as it can be hazardous to click links in emails, visiting URLs stored in QR codes can also be risky in several ways.
The QR code’s URL can take you to a phishing website that tries to trick you into entering your username or password for another website. The URL could take you to a legitimate website and trick that website into doing something harmful, such as giving an attacker access to your account. While such an attack requires a flaw in the website you are visiting, such vulnerabilities are common on the internet. The URL can take you to a malicious website that tricks another website you are logged into on the same device to take an unauthorized action.
---- It is critical that when you open a link in a QR code, you ensure that the URL is safe and comes from a trusted source. Just because the QR code has a logo you recognize doesn’t mean you should click on the URL it contains.
There is also a slight chance that the app used to scan the QR code could contain a vulnerability that allows malicious QR codes to take over your device. This attack would succeed by just scanning the QR code, even if you don’t click the link stored in it. To avoid this threat, you should use trusted apps provided by the device manufacturer to scan QR codes and avoid downloading custom QR code apps.
"A fast-moving environment can evolve more quickly than a complex plan can be adapted to it. By the time you have adapted, the target has changed."
Carl von Clausewitz.
No comments:
Post a Comment