Baltic Dry Index. 2115 -22 Brent Crude 108.34
Spot Gold 1943
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 20/04/22 World 506,083,080
Deaths 6,228,307
“Buy rising stocks and sell falling stocks.”
Jesse Livermore.
Update 7.00 am. There in a rumour circulating that the EU will impose a full embargo on Russian oil next week, after the French Presidential run-off election. I have my doubts that this is more than an attempt at moving the oil market.
With war propaganda flying well in mainstream media this morning and no end to this needless war in sight, this morning we focus on the world economy fast pulling away from overpriced stocks in the global stock casinos.
To this old dinosaur market watcher since 1968, I can’t help thinking most stocks in the casinos are about to get “Netflixed.”
Ominously, Netflix aside, the US 2 year T. Note yield surged from 2.46 percent to 2.61 percent yesterday. For perspective, the 2 year T. Note yielded just 0.73 percent at the start of the year, up from 0.46 percent in October.
Stocks, lookout below.
Netflix rocked by subscriber loss, may offer cheaper ad-supported plans
April 20, 2022 1:28 AM GMT+1
April 19 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) said inflation, the war in Ukraine and fierce competition contributed to a loss of subscribers for the first time in more than a decade and predicted deeper losses ahead, marking an abrupt shift in fortune for a streaming company that thrived during the pandemic.
The company said it lost 200,000 subscribers in its first quarter, falling well short of its forecast of adding 2.5 million subscribers. Suspending service in Russia after the Ukraine invasion took a toll, resulting in the loss of 700,000 members.
Wall Street sent Netflix's stock tumbling 26% after the bell on Tuesday and erased about $40 billion of its stock market value. Since it warned in January of weak subscriber growth, the company has lost nearly half of its value.
The lagging subscriber growth is prompting Netflix to contemplate offering a lower-priced version of the service with advertising, citing the success of similar offerings from rivals HBO Max and Disney+.
----Netflix offered a gloomy prediction for the spring quarter, forecasting it would lose 2 million subscribers, despite the return of such hotly anticipated series as "Stranger Things" and "Ozark" and the debut of the film "The Grey Man," starring Chris Evans and Ryan Gosling. Wall Street targeted 227 million for the second quarter, according to Refinitiv data.
The downdraft caught other video streaming-related stocks, with Roku (ROKU.O) dropping over 6%, Walt Disney (DIS.N) falling 5% and Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) down 3.5%.
Asia-Pacific stocks mixed; China keeps benchmark lending rate unchanged
SINGAPORE — Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed in Wednesday morning trade as China defied expectations by keeping its benchmark lending rate unchanged.
The Shanghai composite in mainland China fell 0.26% in morning trade while the Shenzhen component shed 0.528%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, which fell more than 2% on Tuesday, gained 0.36%.
China on Wednesday kept its one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.7%, while also holding steady on the five-year LPR at 4.6%. A majority of the traders and analysts surveyed in a snap Reuters poll expected a cut in the loan prime rate this month.
Investors have been watching for signs of policy support from Chinese authorities as the mainland continues to grapple with its worst Covid outbreak since the initial shock of the pandemic in 2020.
“I really don’t expect, you know, they’re very keen to put on the rate cuts … in the near term,” said Eva Lee, head of greater China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment office.
China’s second-quarter growth rate is set to be weak, but authorities are likely to make moves toward ensuring sufficient liquidity in the system rather than flooding it, Lee told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday.
The Nikkei 225 climbed 0.47% as shares of conglomerate SoftBank Group rose around 1%. The Topix index advanced 0.73%.
Australian stocks also traded in positive territory as the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.51%. South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.37%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.12% higher.
Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 climbed around 1.61% to 4,462.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 499.51 points, or 1.45%, to 34,911.20 while the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.15% to 13,619.66.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/20/asia-markets-china-loan-prime-rate-currencies-oil.html
Citing Russia’s war, IMF cuts global growth forecast to 3.6%
WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday downgraded the outlook for the world economy this year and next, blaming Russia’s war in Ukraine for disrupting global commerce, pushing up oil prices, threatening food supplies and increasing uncertainty already heightened by the coronavirus and its variants.
The 190-country lender cut its forecast for global growth to 3.6% this year, a steep falloff from 6.1% last year and from the 4.4% growth it had expected for 2022 back in January. It also said it expects the world economy to grow 3.6% again next year, slightly slower than the 3.8% it forecast in January.
The war — and the darkening outlook — came just as the global economy appeared to be shaking off the impact of the highly infectious omicron variant.
“The war will slow economic growth and increase inflation,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters on Tuesday.
Now, the IMF expects Russia’s economy — battered by sanctions — to shrink 8.5% this year and Ukraine’s 35%.
U.S. economic growth is expected to drop to 3.7% this year from 5.7% in 2021, which had been the fastest growth since 1984. The new forecast marks a downgrade from the 4% the IMF had predicted at the beginning of the year. Hobbling U.S. growth this year will be Federal Reserve interest rate increases, meant to combat resurgent inflation, and an economic slowdown in key American trading partners.
Europe, heavily dependent on Russian energy, will bear the brunt of the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. For the 19 countries that share the euro currency, the IMF forecasts collective growth of 2.8% in 2022, down sharply from the 3.9% it expected in January and from 5.3% last year.
The IMF expects the growth of the Chinese economy, the world’s second biggest, to decelerate to 4.4% this year from 8.1% in 2021. Beijing’s zero-COVID strategy has meant draconian lockdowns in bustling commercial cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen.
More
Taiwan firms in China hub make uneven restart from COVID curbs
April 20, 2022 4:35 AM GMT+1
TAIPEI, April 20 (Reuters) - Taiwan firms making chip and electronic components reported a mixed picture on Wednesday on work resumption in the eastern Chinese city of Kunshan after COVID-19 curbs, with some warning deliveries would be postponed until next month.
China has put Shanghai under a tight lockdown since late March and neighbouring Kunshan has also tightened curbs to control the country's biggest COVID-19 outbreak since the coronavirus was discovered in late 2019 in the city of Wuhan.
That had caused dozens of Taiwanese firms, many making parts for the semiconductor and electronics industries, to suspend operations. read more
Global companies, from makers of mobile phones to chips, are highly dependent on China and Southeast Asia for production and have been diversifying their supply chains after the pandemic caused havoc.
Chip substrate and printed circuit board maker Unimicron Technology Corp (3037.TW) said its Kunshan plant was gradually resuming operations from Wednesday.
Unimicron, which supplies Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Intel Corp (INTC.O), said in a statement to the Taipei stock exchange that the factory had suspended production from April 2 to 19.
It added it was "gradually resuming work depending on local personnel and logistics conditions".
However, Asia Electronic Material Co Ltd (4939.TWO), which makes parts for laptops, mobile phones and digital cameras, said its plant in Kunshan would continue to be closed, having originally reported the suspension would last until Tuesday.
Oil prices rebound after sharp losses as supply concerns dominate
April 20, 2022 5:17 AM GMT+1
April 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday from sharp losses in the previous session as concerns about tighter supplies from Russia and Libya dominated, while industry data showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories last week.
Brent crude futures rose 98 cents, or 0.9%, to $108.23 a barrel by 0400 GMT while the front-month WTI crude futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, rose 94 cents, or 0.9%, to $103.50 a barrel. The second-month contract gained $1.07 to $103.12 a barrel
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-1-after-sinking-previous-session-2022-04-20/
In other news, US-Saudi relations leave a little to be desired. Has no one in the District of Crooks ever heard of tact and diplomacy?
Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman started 'shouting' at Biden's national security advisor when he brought up Jamal Khashoggi's brutal killing, report says
Tue, April 19, 2022, 9:14 PM
Saudi Arabia's crown prince Mohammed bin Salman erupted at national security advisor Jake Sullivan during a meeting last year when Sullivan brought up the assassination of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
That's according to The Wall Street Journal, which reported that the argument happened last September, when the two men met for the first time since President Joe Biden took office.
Although the crown prince wanted to strike a "relaxed tone" for their meeting, he "ended up shouting at Mr. Sullivan after he raised the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi," the newspaper reported. "The prince told Mr. Sullivan he never wanted to discuss the matter again," people familiar with the discussion told The Journal. The crown prince also said that the US "could forget about its request to boost oil production."
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-201402325.html
Finally, a little good news ending today. Well, a very little good news ending. I wonder how much all this delay and effort cost, plus who gets to pay that bill?
Stuck container ship in Chesapeake Bay finally refloated
Sun, April 17, 2022, 5:38 PM
BALTIMORE (AP) — A container ship the length of more than three football fields has finally been pried from the muddy bottom of the Chesapeake Bay more than a month after it ran aground.
After two unsuccessful attempts to dislodge it, and the subsequent removal of roughly 500 of the 5,000 containers it was carrying, the Ever Forward was refloated just before 7 a.m. Sunday by two barges and five tugboats.
A full moon and high spring tide helped provide a lift to the salvage vessels as they pulled and pushed the massive ship from the mud, across a dredged hole and back into the shipping channel.
Once refloated, the Ever Forward was weighed down again by water tanks to ensure safe passage under the Chesapeake Bay Bridge on its way to an anchorage off Annapolis, The Baltimore Sun reported.
Marine inspectors will examine the ship’s hull before the Coast Guard allows it to return to the Port of Baltimore to retrieve the offloaded containers.
The cargo ship, operated by Taiwan-based Evergreen Marine Corp., was traveling from Baltimore to Norfolk, Virginia, on March 13, when it ran aground just north of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.
More
https://www.yahoo.com/news/stuck-container-ship-chesapeake-bay-163825523.html
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
We open today with some wishful thinking. Well, it might happen, I suppose, but by 2023 and at what cost of shipment and what tonnage?
LITHUANIA
OPENS ITS PORT TO EXPORT UKRAINE GRAIN
Apr. 18, 2022
Agri-Pulse
reports:
Ukrainian farmers will be able to use the Lithuanian
port of Klaipeda to export corn and other ag commodities, according to the
consulting firm APK Inform. The two countries are working to sink railway lines
and run shipments through Poland to get to the port.
"We are cooperating with Ukrainian for several
weeks," said Lithuanian Minister of Transport & Communications Marius
Skuodis, who was quoted by APK Inform. "Coordination between railways are
the most important."
The Lithuanian ministry said in a tweet that it is
also working closely with the European Union to help transport grain out of
Ukraine.
https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/140577
USDA REPORTS
4% OF THE CORN, 1% OF THE SOYBEANS PLANTED
Apr. 19, 2022
BrownfieldAgNews
reports:
U.S. corn planting advanced last week, but remained
slower than usual due to cold, wet weather in some key growing areas. The USDA
says that 4% of the crop is planted as of Sunday, compared to the five-year
average of 6%.
1% of soybeans are planted, compared to the normal
rate of 2%.
7% of winter wheat has headed, compared to 12%
typically in mid-April, with 30% of the crop in good to excellent condition, 2%
less than a week ago.
8% of spring wheat is planted, compared to 9% on
average.
10% of the U.S. cotton crop is planted, compared to
the five-year average of 9%.
22% of rice has emerged, well behind the usual pace
of 36%, with 13% of the crop emerged, compared to 18% on average.
U.S. soil moisture percentages declined slightly
over the past week.
https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/140590
CATTLE ON
FEED AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 1996
Apr. 18, 2022 By Victoria Myers, DTN
Hitting the highest March inventory number since
1996, cattle and calves on feed for slaughter totaled 12.2 million in USDA's
latest Cattle on Feed report.
Not only was this a high-water mark for the history
of the USDA report, but it was a 1% bump over 2021 levels. The numbers focused
only on feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more.
Most of those head were being held in just four
states: Colorado (1.12 million head), Kansas (2.51 million head), Nebraska
(2.69 million head) and Texas (2.94 million head).
The report shows that a majority of those head are
in the 700-to-799-pound range with the next-largest group being in the
800-to-899-pound range.
What might this all mean for pricing and timing as
calving season is well underway?
DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart says it's
important to note that in this dynamic and evolving market, there is only one
thing driving this trend, and it's drought.
https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/140570
Argentina's government to tax Ukraine war windfall profits, redistribute funds
Government announces a new bonus for low-income workers and the retired, saying it will fund payments with new taxes on "unexpected" economic gains resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
April 18, 2022
Argentina's government on Monday announced a new bonus for low-income workers and the retired, funded by a tax on "unexpected" economic gains resulting from the rise in international commodity prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Payments to the country's poorest citizens would help them cope with rising inflation, Economy Minister Martín Guzmán said on Monday, declaring that the tax on "unexpected income" would be turned a bonus for those who need it most.
The minister said that unregistered workers and some self-employed would receive up to 18,000 pesos split into two payments and that retirees will receive 12,000 pesos in a one-off sum.
"We are looking to build a mechanism to ensure that the shock of the war does not have a regressive effect on our society, an unequal impact," said Guzmán, as he delivered a speech alongside President Alberto Fernández at the Casa Rosada.
---- Companies with annual net taxable profits of more than one billion pesos (close to US$8.5 million) would contribute to the fund, a group that Guzmán said represents "a very small fraction of the country's business network."
The minister said that in 2021, only 3.2 percent of firms in Argentina had that level of profits.
The economic sectors that have benefited the most from the Ukraine war are producers and exporters of cereals and grains, such as wheat and maize.
Another condition for contributing to the fund is that companies register "a significant increase in profits" in 2022, said Guzmán.
In addition, it will be established that if their windfall income is channelled into productive investment, a firm's contribution could be lower.
---- The government did not provide financial details or estimates about the fund. The proposal would also need approval from Congress.
Inflation pain
President's Fernández's government is facing high inflation, which totalled 16.1 percent in the first quarter alone. Price hikes are wreaking havoc for Argentines, overshadowing the impact of economic growth and improved employment data.
Guzmán attributed the new spike in inflation, which reached 50.9 percent in 2021, to "the unprecedented shock of the pandemic and now the war," which he said had particularly affected food and fuel prices.
More
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 virus may be detected in intestinal tract for months
April 19, 2022 / 3:00 AM
COVID-19 is mainly known as a respiratory ailment, but a new study suggests the coronavirus can infect your intestinal tract for weeks and months after you've cleared the bug from your lungs.
In the study about 1 out of 7 COVID-19 patients continued to shed the virus' genetic remnants in their feces at least four months after their initial diagnosis, long after they've stopped shedding the virus from their respiratory tract, researchers found.
This could explain why some COVID-19 patients develop GI symptoms like abdominal pain, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, said senior researcher Dr. Ami Bhatt, an associate professor of medicine and genetics at Stanford University.
"We found that people who had cleared their respiratory infection -- meaning they were no longer testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in their respiratory tract -- were continuing to shed SARS-CoV-2 RNA in their feces," Bhatt said. "And those people in particular had a high incidence of GI symptoms."
A long-term infection of the gut also might contribute to long COVID symptoms in some people, Bhatt and her colleagues theorized.
"Long COVID could be the consequence of ongoing immune reaction to SARS-CoV-2, but it also could be that we have people who have persistent infections that are hiding out in niches other than the respiratory tract, like the GI tract," Bhatt said.
For this study, the research team took advantage of an early clinical trial launched in May 2020 at Stanford to test a possible treatment for mild COVID-19 infection. More than 110 patients were monitored to follow the evolution of their symptoms, and regular fecal samples were collected as part of an effort to track their viral shedding.
More
https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2022/04/19/COVID-19-intestinal-tract/1661650305286/
First COVID-19 breath test authorized for use in United States
Rich Haridy April 18, 2022
The first breath-based COVID-19 test has been issued an emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The device takes three minutes to return results and has been found to be over 90 percent accurate in detecting positive COVID-19 cases.
The new breath-testing device is from a company called InspectIR and uses gas chromatography mass-spectrometry (GC-MS) to analyze breath samples. Like prior COVID breathalyzer prototypes, the device doesn’t identify the presence of specific viral particles. Instead it’s designed to pick up patterns of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that have been found to correspond with SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this case the company says a pattern of five specific VOCs can effectively identify positive cases of COVID-19.
A statement from the FDA indicates the emergency use authorization was influenced by the results of a large study composed of almost 2,500 subjects. The research found the test picked up 91.2 percent of positive COVID-19 cases, a metric known as test sensitivity. The specificity of the test was even higher, correctly identifying 99.3 percent of negative cases.
“Today’s authorization is yet another example of the rapid innovation occurring with diagnostic tests for COVID-19,” said Jeff Shuren, from the FDA’s Center for Devices and Radiological Health. “The FDA continues to support the development of novel COVID-19 tests with the goal of advancing technologies that can help address the current pandemic and better position the U.S. for the next public health emergency.”
More
Hong Kong zero-COVID policies create mountains of plastic waste
Tue, April 19, 2022, 2:04 AM
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong arrivals meet plastic everywhere in quarantine hotels: Remote controls are wrapped in cellophane, pillows are encased in plastic bags, food comes with plastic cutlery.
Hong Kong’s strict quarantine policies - intended to halt COVID-19 at the border and in the community - have been criticised for damaging the economy and mental health. Environmentalists say the policies are also hurting the environment by generating excess waste.
“Every single one of the staff members here wears full PPE ... the gowns, the gloves, the booties, the hats, and that's every staff member and on every floor," said Hong Kong-based skincare entrepreneur Clementine Vaughan, who flew into the city on April 4.
"The phones, you know, the remote controllers, everything's been cellophane-wrapped," she said, speaking to Reuters from her quarantine hotel.
Hong Kong disposes of over 2,300 tonnes of plastic waste a day, and with a recycling rate of just 11%, according to government figures, most of it goes into landfills.
A government spokesperson said officials were aware of a surge in disposable waste since COVID began, urging people to adopt a green lifestyle as far as possible.
Edwin Lau, with local environmental group The Green Earth, said Hong Kong’s approach to COVID reflected its lack of environmental awareness.
"People living in quarantine hotels, they are not confirmed cases,” Lau said, urging the government to allow the recycling or reuse of plastics from quarantine facilities.
Hong Kong, one of the few places that holds to a zero-COVID policy, has quarantined tens of thousands of people this year in facilities for the COVID-positive and near contacts.
The facilities add to the waste problem, with residents confirming to Reuters all meals came in plastic bags.
Paul Zimmerman, an elected district councillor, said the facilities are also wasteful because they can't be used long-term, such as for public housing.
“They've been built very quickly ... (and don't) comply with any particular building standards we have in Hong Kong.”
(Reporting by Aleksander Solum; Editing By Tom Hogue)
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hong-kong-zero-covid-policies-010426736.html
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Not the usual update today. Today stablecoin cryptocurrency backed by gold.
But success will come down to issues of trust, safety from hackers, especially government hackers on behalf of fiat central banksters, and safety from Uncle Scam and John Bull outright theft.
Still an interesting competitor to Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC.)
Cryptoverse: Gold coins glimmer amid the global gloom
By Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Medha Singh
April 19 (Reuters) - A fledgling class of crypto that feasts on risk is outshining a wider market paralyzed by war and inflation.
Coins backed by gold are newer variants of "stablecoins", which are typically pegged to the dollar to tame volatility. The largest, Pax Gold or PAXG , has jumped 7.4% in 2022, while main rival Tether Gold has leapt 8.5%.
By contrast, bitcoin has lost over 13% and ether is down 20%.
"One of the main concerns that a lot of people who are new to crypto have is that it's not backed by anything. It just gets on a screen," said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins. "So attaching them or linking them to a real-world commodity, it does make some sense."
The reach for gold, a traditional hedge against geopolitical upheaval and inflation, is unsurprising. The demand for gold-backed cryptocurrencies, though, is new.
Stablecoins, a fast-growing breed of crypto, have emerged as a common medium of exchange, often used by traders seeking to move funds around. It is easier to swap major stablecoins for bitcoin or other crypto, for example, than it is to swap traditional money like U.S. dollars for bitcoin.
Tether Gold has been buoyed by bigger investors, including "whales" with $1 million or more of cryptocurrency, using the token to change a portion of their holdings into gold, according to Paolo Ardoino, Tether's chief technology officer.
"Many of our investors were already involved in crypto, but were interested in not having their entire wealth in cryptos or in dollars, and were seeking more inflation-resistant assets like gold," he said.
Yet gold-backed coins are still a niche novelty in the crypto market at present - PAXG and Tether Gold are barely over two years old - with thin liquidity and little certainty about their long-term fortunes.
PAXG has seen its market value almost double to $627 million this year, while Tether Gold has risen 9% to above $209 million. By comparison the latter's eight-year-old sibling, dollar-pegged Tether - the world's largest stablecoin - has a market cap of over $83 billion.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, daily PAX gold trading volumes ranged between $10 million to $520 million over the past month, compared to ether volumes which fluctuated between $8.7 billion and $25 billion in April. Dollar-pegged tether's 24-hour volumes ranged between $35 billion and $92 billion.
ALL THAT GLITTERS?
Sceptics argue that PAXG, developed by the company Paxos, and Tether Gold have merely risen on the coat-tails of a broad rush for gold; indeed they have tracked the price of physical gold , which is up about 8.5% this year. PAXG is up 4.5% since Feb. 23, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, versus gold's 4%.
More
https://www.reuters.com/business/cryptoverse-gold-coins-glimmer-amid-global-gloom-2022-04-19/
“Trade only when the market is clearly bullish or bearish.”
Jesse Livermore.
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