Baltic Dry Index. 2435 +21 Brent Crude 103.84
Spot Gold 1878
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 27/04/22 World 511,583,909
Deaths 6,252,580
Prolonged inflation never 'stimulates' the economy. On the contrary, it unbalances, disrupts, and misdirects production and employment.
Henry Hazlitt.
To this old dinosaur commodities trader, it looks very much like the global economy and the financialized fiat money economy in place since the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, August 15, 1971 is starting to fail.
Our global central banks deliberately opted for money printing in March 2020 and the global inflation that would cause. What they didn’t foresee was Covid-19 supply chain chaos, a new European war, and a rapidly growing global food supply crisis happening all at he same time with the political “leadership” in the west of Biden, Johnson, Macron, Sholz and Trudeau.
All they seem able to do is talk and stumble the west into a soon to be nuclear war with Russia over Ukkraine.
Not to worry though, Elon Musk has just paid 44 billion fiat US dollars for a non productive talking shop called Twitter. Which just about sums up the bankruptcy of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money.
Below, our world at 11.59 minutes to nuclear war and/or a food catastrophe probably both.
Chinese stocks rise on hopes of infrastructure boost; tech stocks jump
SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific stocks were higher in Thursday morning trade, as investors in the region watched for market reaction to the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary policy decision.
Mainland Chinese stocks edged higher, with the Shanghai Composite rising 0.75% while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.283%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index surged 1.59%.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday called for an “all-out” effort to construct infrastructure. His comments come as mainland China has since March been facing its worst outbreak of Covid-19 since the initial shock of the pandemic in early 2020.
“What we hear from government figures will matter a great deal more for markets than what the GDP numbers are. The GDP numbers are always going to be backwards looking whereas China’s economy and markets are very much policy-driven,” Dan Fineman, co-head of equity strategy for Asia-Pacific at Credit Suisse, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.
“What we’re getting right now is, I would say, fairly reactive policy. When we see the economy weakening further then we get the government stepping in with new measures to stabilize growth but … it’s more reactive than proactive and I think that markets are waiting for something stronger, more proactive,” he added.
Shares of Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong climbed in Thursday morning trade, with Alibaba jumping 4.49% and Tencent rising 1.02%. The Hang Seng Tech index traded 1.27% higher.
The internet tech stocks rose after news late Wednesday that as part of Beijing’s push to support employment, the government planned to support the so-called platform economy in order to create more jobs.
Japan holds steady on policy
The Nikkei 225 in Japan rose 0.61% while the Topix index climbed 1%.
Japan’s retail sales rose more than expected in March, according to government data released Thursday. Retail sales gained 0.9% in March as compared with a year earlier, above median market a forecast for a 0.4% rise, according to Reuters.
The Bank of Japan on Thursday announced its decision to hold steady on its monetary policy, a largely expected move. The Japanese central bank also said in its monetary policy statement that it “expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels.”
Following the announcement, the Japanese yen weakened to 129.41 per dollar, as compared with an earlier high of 128.32 against the greenback. The Japanese currency has for weeks weakened against the dollar, with expectations the Bank of Japan is set to be relatively slower in normalizing monetary policy as compared with peers such as the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.56% while the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia gained 1.05%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 0.83% higher.
Overnight stateside, the S&P 500 gained 0.21% to 4,183.96. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 61.75 points, or 0.19%, to 33,301.93. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was little changed at 12,488.93.
More
Push Russia out of whole of Ukraine, says Truss
By James Landale Diplomatic correspondent April 27, 2022
Russian forces must be pushed out of "the whole of Ukraine", the Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said.
In a keynote speech in London, Ms Truss said victory for Ukraine was now a "strategic imperative" for the West.
This amounts to the clearest statement yet of Britain's war aims which have, until now, been limited to stating that President Putin's invasion of Ukraine "must fail and be seen to fail".
She said Western allies must "double down" in their support for Ukraine.
"We will keep going further and faster," Ms Truss said, "to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine."
This implies that Russian forces must leave not just the territory occupied in recent weeks since their invasion on 24 February but also those areas they invaded and annexed eight years ago, such as Crimea in the south and parts of the eastern Donbas region.
A month into this latest invasion, Russia declared its main goal was the "liberation of Donbas" - broadly referring to Ukraine's regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
More than a third of this area was already seized by Russian proxy forces in a war that began in 2014.
Not all western powers may share Ms Truss' ambitious target, fearing it is unlikely to be achieved either by arms or negotiation.
Some French and German officials have been more cautious about stating war aims that risk provoking Russia, preferring to focus instead on language about defending Ukraine.
The foreign secretary's latest remarks in a speech at Mansion House in London reflect the desire by some in the West to aim high, so that Ukraine enters any possible future talks about a political settlement to the conflict with the best negotiating hand possible.
More
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61251698
Tesla Loses $126 Billion in Value Amid Musk Twitter Deal Funding Concern
By Reuters April 26, 2022, at 6:58 p.m.
Reuters) - Tesla Inc lost $126 billion in value on Tuesday amid investor concerns that Chief Executive Elon Musk may have to sell shares to fund his $21 billion equity contribution to his $44 billion buyout of Twitter Inc.
Tesla is not involved in the Twitter deal, yet its shares have been targeted by speculators after Musk declined to disclose publicly where his cash for the acquisition is coming from. The 12.2% drop in Tesla's shares on Tuesday equated to a $21 billion drop in the value of his Tesla stake, the same as the $21 billion in cash he committed to the Twitter deal.
Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said that worries about upcoming stock sales by Musk and the possibility that he is becoming distracted by Twitter weighed on Tesla shares. "This (is) causing a bear festival on the name," he said.
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
----Twitter's shares also slid on Tuesday, falling 3.9% to close at $49.68 even though Musk agreed to buy it on Monday for $54.20 per share in cash. The widening spread reflects investor concern that the precipitous decline in Tesla's shares, from which Musk derives the majority of his $239 billion fortune, could lead the world's richest person to have second thoughts about the Twitter deal.
"If Tesla's share price continues to remain in freefall that will jeopardize his financing," said OANDA senior market analyst Ed Moya.
As part of the Tesla deal, Musk also took out a $12.5 billion margin loan tied to his Tesla stock. He had already borrowed against about half of his Tesla shares.
University of Maryland professor David Kirsch, whose research focuses on innovation and entrepreneurship, said investors started to worry about a "cascade of margin calls" on Musk's loans.
In other news, inflation, inflation and more food chain inflation, a looming disaster.
Record-breaking heat wave gripping India and Pakistan threatens crops, leaves millions sweltering
Tue, April 26, 2022, 9:59 PM
A spring heat wave is scorching parts of India and Pakistan, with record-breaking April temperatures of 120 degrees Fahrenheit forecast along the border of the two countries in the coming days. The extreme heat threatens the health of millions of people as well as the harvest of wheat at a time when climate change and the war in Ukraine have sparked a global food crisis.
The Indian Meteorological Department warned this week that a heat dome, similar to the one that sent temperatures soaring over the Pacific Northwest last year, had formed over the region. Millions of people in the areas of India and Pakistan where temperatures have remained in the triple digits are now at risk of illness and death from the heat.
“It’s become impossible to work after 10 o’clock in the morning,” Sunil Das, who works as a rickshaw puller on the outskirts of Delhi, told Quartz India.
Following an exceptionally dry month of March, which also set a new temperature record, cities and towns across India’s wheat-growing region have been reporting temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit this week. When April arrived, so did the heat wave, putting the wheat harvest at risk.
“The heat spell occurred very fast and also matured the crop at a faster pace, which shriveled the grain size. This also resulted in a drop in yield,” JDS Gill, the agriculture information officer in the state of Punjab, told India Today.
Meteorologists predicted that the temperature average for April would likely fall across large portions of India and Pakistan. Such severe heat waves aren’t normally registered in the region until May and June, but scientists have long warned that because of climate change they will become more common earlier and later in the coming decades.
----"[Wheat] prices will be driven up, and if you look at what is happening in Ukraine, with many countries relying on wheat from India to compensate, the impact will be felt well beyond India,” Harjeet Singh, an adviser with Climate Action Network International, told NBC News.
While the overall toll on the wheat harvest remains unclear, the next few days in India and Pakistan will provide a more immediate trial run for how human beings will cope with a hotter future. For now, schools have been closed in several cities in India, workers have been advised to avoid exposure to the sun and the governments of both countries have warned of blackouts as the demand for electricity is expected to surge.
World Bank forecasts worst stagflation since 1970s amid Ukraine war
April 26, 2022 / 4:13 PM
April 26 (UPI) -- The World Bank warned Tuesday that inflated food and energy prices are here to stay, and that the war in Ukraine could put the world economy on a path of slow growth and high inflation for the next three years.
The dismal analysis predicts the worst stagflation, combining high prices, high unemployment with low demand, in 50 years.
"Overall, this amounts to the largest commodity shock we've experienced since the 1970s. As was the case then, the shock is being aggravated by a surge in restrictions in trade of food, fuel and fertilizers," Indermit Gill, the World Bank's vice president for equitable growth, finance and institutions, said in a press release.
The forecast referenced the largest jump in oil prices since the 1973 energy crisis and said energy prices could skyrocket more than 50% this year, pushing up bills for households and businesses.
"We're particularly worried about the poorest households since they spend a larger share of income on food and energy, so they're particularly vulnerable to this price spike," Peter Nagle, a co-author of the report, told the BBC.
The price of natural gas in Europe is expected to double, as Russia produces about 11% of the world's oil. The United States and other countries have banned Russian oil and gas imports since its invasion of Ukraine in February.
"Disruptions resulting from the war are expected to have a lasting negative effect," according to the report.
Food prices are also forecast to see large hikes. The cost of wheat could reach record highs and increase 42.7%, with fewer exports from Ukraine and Russia.
And the cost of fertilizer is forecast to increase 69% this year.
"The outlook for commodity markets depends heavily on the duration of the war in Ukraine and the disruption to supply chains," according to the report. "While prices generally are expected to peak in 2022, they are to remain much higher than previously forecast."
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OKLAHOMA STATE LIVESTOCK SPECIALIST SAYS SIGNIFICANT
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Australia banks pull forward hike calls after inflation surprise
April 27, 2022 7:35 AM GMT+1
SINGAPORE, April 27 (Reuters) - Two of Australia's big four banks expect the benchmark cash rate will rise next week and a third sees increased risk of a hike after a surprisingly strong inflation reading on Wednesday.
National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) and ANZ Bank (ANZ.AX) pulled forward their lift-off forecasts from June to May and expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise its benchmark cash rate 15 basis points on Tuesday.
"Inflation pressures have momentum and have broadened. A cash rate target of 0.1% is inappropriate against this backdrop," ANZ analysts said in a note. "We don't think the RBA needs to wait for more data on wages."
Data published on Wednesday showed inflation hit a two-decade high last quarter with annual core inflation at 3.7% and above the RBA's target band of 2-3%. read more
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX) said a cash rate hike was "a clear risk" but stopped short of shifting its forecast for a June hike.
Westpac (WBC.AX) chief economist Bill Evans repeated last week's forecast for a 40 bp hike in June during a podcast recorded after the release of inflation data.
Swap-markets, which have consistently been more aggressive than analysts and the RBA, showed bets on a 15 bp hike firmed from about even to pricing about a 90% chance the benchmark cash rate is lifted from a record-low 0.1% to 0.35%.
Shares in Japanese beermaker Asahi jump after it announces price hikes
April 27, 2022 7:16 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, April 27 (Reuters) - Shares in Asahi Group Holdings (2502.T) surged on Wednesday after the Japanese beermaker announced its first price increases for canned beer in 14 years and a range of other price hikes to cope with rising costs.
Retail prices on 162 items, mostly beer products, will rise between 6% and 10% from Oct. 1, reflecting increasing costs for materials, energy and transportation, it said on Tuesday after the market closed.
After decades of deflation in Japan, consumer price pressures have mounted as the cost of fuel and other commodities soar in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and due to logistical snags caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Asahi's stock climbed 4.3%, outperforming a 1.2% drop in the benchmark Nikkei index (.N225).
Rivals Kirin Holdings Co (2503.T) and Sapporo Holdings Ltd (2501.T) said on Wednesday they are also considering price increases but have not made a decision yet.
A Suntory Holdings Ltd spokesperson said the company had no comment, noting the company's last price changes for its beer and wine products were in October 2020.
Asahi is Japan's biggest beer maker, commanding nearly 40% of the market.
I'm just opposed to a pure inflation-only mandate in which the only thing a central bank cares about is inflation and not employment.
Janet Yellen.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
More Metals Needed to Meet EU's Green Deal Goal of Climate Neutrality by 2050
Meeting the European Union's Green Deal goal of climate neutrality by 2050 will require 35 times more lithium and 7 to 26 times the amount of increasingly scarce rare earth metals compared to Europe's limited use today, according to a study from Belgian university KU Leuven.
The energy transition will also require far greater annual supplies of aluminium (equivalent to 30% of what Europe already uses today), copper (35%), silicon (45%), nickel (100%), and cobalt (330%), all essential to Europe's plans for producing the electric vehicles and batteries, renewable wind, solar and hydrogen energy technologies, and the grid infrastructure needed to achieve climate neutrality.
The good news: By 2050, 40 to 75% of Europe's clean energy metal needs could be met through local recycling if Europe invests heavily now and fixes bottlenecks, says KU Leuven's "Metals for Clean Energy" study, commissioned by Eurometaux, Europe's association of metal producers.
But Europe faces critical shortfalls in the next 15 years without more mined and refined metals supplying the start of its clean energy system. Progressive steps will be needed to develop a long-term Circular Economy, which avoids a repeat of Europe's current fossil fuel dependency.
On March 8, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for European independence from Russian oil, coal and gas, saying "we simply cannot rely on a supplier who explicitly threatens us. We need to act now to… accelerate the clean energy transition. The quicker we switch to renewables and hydrogen, combined with more energy efficiency, the quicker we will be truly independent and master our energy system."
The independent KU Leuven study is the first to offer EU-specific numbers related to the International Energy Agency's warning in 2021 of looming supply challenges for the enabling metals needed to help end fossil fuels.
The study says that by 2050, Europe's plans for producing clean energy technologies will require annually:
- 4.5 million tonnes of aluminium (an increase of 33% compared to today's use)
- 1.5 million tonnes of copper (35%)
- 800,000 tonnes of lithium (3,500%)
- 400,000 tonnes of nickel (100%)
- 300,000 tonnes of zinc (10-15%)
- 200,000 tonnes of silicon (45%)
- 60,000 tonnes of cobalt (330%)
- and 3,000 tonnes of the rare earths metals neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium (700-2,600%)
Supply risks
According to the study, Europe could face problems around 2030 from global supply shortages for five metals especially: lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and copper. EU primary metals demand will peak around 2040; thereafter, increased recycling will help the bloc towards greater self-sufficiency, assuming major investments are made in recycling infrastructure and legislative bottlenecks are addressed.
more
https://www.azocleantech.com/news.aspx?newsID=31600
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Increased immunity may protect against long COVID - study
“While this was a small pilot study, it does suggest that some people with long COVID may have underactive immune systems after recovering from COVID-19," said a senior researcher.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF Published: APRIL 26, 2022 22:11
Researchers at UCLA recently discovered that an abnormally suppressed immune system may be to blame for long COVID symptoms. Their study was published online on April 22 in the Clinical Infectious Diseases journal.
COVID-19 is caused by the body's hyperactive immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Those who contract the virus can suffer damage to the lungs and other organs. Some people who recover from the illness maintain some of the symptoms - this is called long COVID.
The longest known COVID-19 infection was identified in the United Kingdom and lasted for 505 days. Researchers in the UK found that the average long COVID infection lasted for approximately 73 days.
Initially, scientists thought that long COVID was caused primarily by persistent immune hyperactivity. Researchers at UCLA, working with this theory, hypothesized that blocking the immune receptor CCR5 — which is involved in inflammation — would reduce the activity of the immune system and relieve long COVID symptoms.
“But we found just the opposite,” senior researcher Dr. Otto Yang said. “Patients who improved were those who started with low CCR5 on their T cells, suggesting their immune system was less active than normal, and levels of CCR5 actually increased in people who improved."
---- “While this was a small pilot study, it does suggest that some people with long COVID may actually have underactive immune systems after recovering from COVID-19," Dr. Yang continued, "which means that boosting immunity in those individuals could be a treatment.”
This aligns with what we already see in existing studies that draw a correlation between vaccination status and long COVID. The research, however, is far from conclusive. An analysis conducted in the UK of electronic medical records from the United States found that there was no meaningful difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in terms of their risk for contracting long COVID.
More
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/article-705193
EXCLUSIVE: China Stonewalled US Offer of COVID-19 Assistance During Early Days of Pandemic, Emails Show
By and April 26, 2022 Updated: April 26, 2022
Three days after Beijing officially acknowledged a cluster of an unknown pneumonia disease in 2020, then-head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Robert Redfield asked his Chinese counterpart George Gao to get on the phone.
“I’ve been trying to reach you and will try again in a few hours,” he wrote, according to emails obtained by The Epoch Times. It was Jan. 3, 2020.
This would be the first of a series of efforts from the United States to engage with China and offer assistance over the next few weeks.
“Unfortunately, that assistance wasn’t accepted by the Chinese government,” Redfield later recounted. “I think it could have made a big difference.”
Redfield said he had “extensive discussions” with Gao in the early days of the pandemic and that a team of 20 people was ready to fly across the world.
Gao personally refused the offers, citing a lack of authorization, according to one report.
A review of the files The Epoch Times obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request and the public statements offers another glimpse into how China was stonewalling the United States during the early days of the pandemic. All the while, the communist regime was suppressing information about the outbreak domestically when any health data would have been crucial to formulate a more effective COVID-19 containment strategy and minimize the disease’s global spread.
The day after the call, Redfield wrote to Gao again reiterating the U.S. offer of assistance.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Measuring the 'wettability' of graphene and other 2D materials
Date: April 26, 2022
Source: Institute for Basic Science
Summary: Measuring the 'wettability' of graphene and other 2D materials. Microscopic understanding of wettability can be achieved at the molecular level using 'vibrational sum-frequency generation spectroscopy' (VSFG).
Wettability of the material is the ability of a liquid to maintain contact with a solid surface, and it is proportional to hydrophilicity and inversely proportional to hydrophobicity. It is one of the most important properties of a solid, and understanding the wettability of different substrates is essential for various industrial uses, such as desalination, coating agents, and water electrolytes.
So far, studies on the wettability of substrates have mainly been measured at the macroscopic level. The macroscopic measurement of wettability is typically determined by measuring the water contact angle (WCA), which is the angle a water droplet makes with respect to the surface of the substrate. However, it is currently very difficult to accurately measure what happens at the interface between a substrate and water at the molecular level.
Currently used microscopic measurement techniques, such as reflection-based infrared spectroscopy or Raman spectroscopy, are incapable of selectively observing the interfacial water molecules. Since the number of water molecules in the entire bulk of the liquid is much larger than the molecules that are making contact with the surface, the signal of interfacial water molecules is obscured by the signal of water molecules in the bulk liquid.
To overcome this limitation, a research team at the Center for Molecular Spectroscopy and Dynamics (CMSD) within the Institute for Basic Science (IBS) in Seoul, South Korea, and the Korea University revealed that vibrational sum-frequency generation spectroscopy (VSFG) could be used for measuring the wettability of 2D-materials. The team succeeded in measuring the vibrational mode of water molecules in interfaces between graphene and water using VSFG spectroscopy.
VSFG is a useful technique that can connect the macroscopic measurement results with molecular-level properties. It is a surface-selective tool for investigating interfacial molecules using its own surface selection rule, and it has a very good surface resolution with a few molecular layers.
The group identified the unique ability of the graphene to project the wettability of the substrate onto its surface, which is called 'wetting transparency'. They observed that the wetting transparency of graphene diminish as the number of graphene layers increased, disappearing when the graphene is more than 4 layers thick. This is the first observation to describe that graphene surface becomes hydrophobic above a certain number of layers at the molecular level.
Also, the researchers defined the new concept of VSFG wettability, which is the ratio of water molecules forming strong hydrogen bonds against water molecules with weak or no hydrogen bond formation. The VSFG wettability correlated strongly with the adhesion energy, which is calculated from the observed macroscopic WCA measurements. This proved that VSFG is an effective tool for defining the wettability of a material's surface.
Using VSFG wettability, the researchers measured the wettability of the graphene in real-time, as an electric field was applied for it to form graphene oxide. It is impossible to observe wettability in real-time with the traditional WCA experiments. Therefore, this suggests that VSFG could be a decisive technique for measuring the water adhesion energy on any spatially confined interface where the water contact angle measurement cannot be applied. In addition to graphene, VSFG spectroscopy is expected to shed light on the wettability of other low-dimensional materials.
First author Eunchan Kim notes: "This study confirmed that VSFG spectroscopy could be used as a versatile tool for measuring the wettability.," and "We demonstrate the potential to measure the wettability of previously unobservable complex systems through VSFG spectroscopy."
Professor CHO Minhaeng, the Director of CMSD notes: "With VSFG spectroscopy, we are studying the microscopic properties of graphene as well as other two-dimensional functional materials such as graphene oxide and hexagonal boron nitride.," and "Through this, it will be possible to solve various problems that hinder the commercialization of two-dimensional functional materials."
This research was published in the online edition of Chem (IF 22.804) on April 26th.
Domestic inflation reflects domestic monetary policy.
Martin Feldstein.
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