Tuesday, 8 September 2020

When To Factor In “President Biden?”


Baltic Dry Index. 1349 -13  Brent Crude 41.95
Spot Gold 1925

Coronavirus Cases 08/9/20 World 27,427,620
Deaths 901,645

“Only a few find the way, some don’t recognize it when they do – some… don’t ever want to.”

Lewis Carroll, politics expert.

Up first, our usual tour of the central bankster stock casinos. All’s nervously well, for now.

Ignore Covid-19 deaths nearing a million, the sinking Baltic Dry [shipping] Index, crude oil prices slipping again, and the increasing likelihood of a Biden-Harris Democrat Socialist USA next year. Buy more!

Asian stocks mixed as investors wait for Wall Street to return from break


Asian shares were mixed Tuesday, after European stocks rallied and U.S. markets were closed for the Labor Day national holiday.

Investors are focusing on uncertainties over the coronavirus pandemic and hopes for a vaccine. 
Attention is now on how Wall Street might pick up after the holiday break, given the decline that came last week after months of surging prices.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 NIK, +0.54% gained 0.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.63% added 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +0.62% gained 0.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -0.28% was down 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -0.38% slipped 0.3%.

“Traders and investors alike may slowly but surely come around to the idea that last week’s market rout was tech sector-specific, rather than any real change in underlying sentiment,” said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp.

“There was nothing ‘fundamental’ behind last week’s equity sell-off, but it will most certainly take a while to clear all the option-market after-shocks,” he said.

Wall Street’s slide on Friday followed a Labor Department report that showed U.S. hiring slowed to 1.4 million last month. That was the fewest jobs added since the economy started bouncing back from the initial shock of the pandemic. The United States has recovered about half the 22 million jobs lost during the crisis.

In Europe, another round of Brexit trade talks is scheduled in London for later in the day. On Monday, the European Union warned the British government that any attempt to renege on commitments made ahead of its departure from the bloc earlier this year could put at risk the hard-won peace in Northern Ireland. Britain left the bloc on Jan. 31, but the two sides are in a transition period that ends at the end of this year and are negotiating their future trade ties.

Riki Ogawa at the Asia & Oceania Treasury Department at Mizuho Bank in Singapore warned that plenty of other uncertainties remained, such as President Donald Trump’s comments about “decoupling” the U.S. economy from China, as the presidential campaign heats up.

The Asian region depends heavily on a healthy Chinese economy, and trade with the U.S., as well as with China.

“We appear to be short on clarity,” said Ogawa.

Benchmark U.S. crude CL.1, -2.11% fell nearly 2% to $38.99 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, BRN00, -0.30% the international standard, added slipped 5 cents to $41.96 per barrel.

The dollar inched down to 106.26 Japanese yen USDJPY, -0.02% from 106.27 yen. The euro EURUSD, -0.06% fell to $1.1811 from $1.1817.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-stocks-mixed-as-investors-wait-for-wall-street-to-return-from-break-11599541773?mod=mw_latestnews
In USA news, without a new Democrat-Republican agreed relief bill, the US economy is probably about to stall. If it does, President Trump’s re-election prospects are likely to crash. How long before the casino gamblers factor that in?
I suspect not too long, if not before month end.

Hopes fading for coronavirus deal as Congress returns

WASHINGTON (AP) — At least there won’t be a government shutdown.

But as lawmakers straggle back to Washington for an abbreviated preelection session, hopes are dimming for another coronavirus relief bill — or much else.

Talks between top Democrats and the Trump administration broke off last month and remain off track, with the bipartisan unity that drove almost $3 trillion in COVID-19 rescue legislation into law this spring replaced by toxic partisanship and a return to Washington dysfunction. 

Expectations in July and August that a fifth bipartisan pandemic response bill would eventually be birthed despite increased obstacles has been replaced by genuine pessimism. Recent COVID-related conversations among key players have led to nothing.

Democrats seem secure in their political position, with President Donald Trump and several Senate GOP incumbents lagging in the polls. Trump is seeking to sideline the pandemic as a campaign issue, and Republicans aren’t interested in a deal on Democratic terms — even as needs like school aid enjoy widespread support.

Poisonous relationships among key leaders like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows give little reason for confidence about overcoming obstacles on the cost, scope and details of a potential relief bill. Pelosi recently referred to Meadows as “whatever his name is,” while the Meadows-run White House during a press briefing ran a video loop of Pelosi’s controversial visit to a San Francisco hair salon.

Trump said Monday that Democrats “don’t want to make a deal because they think that if the country does as badly as possible ... that’s good for the Democrats.”
More

‘A tale of 2 recessions’: As rich Americans get richer, the bottom half struggles

The trend is on track to exacerbate dramatic wealth and income gaps in the U.S., where divides are already wider than any other nation in the G-7.

The path toward economic recovery in the U.S. has become sharply divided, with wealthier Americans earning and saving at record levels while the poorest struggle to pay their bills and put food on the table.

The result is a splintered economic picture characterized by high highs — the stock market has hit record levels — and incongruous low lows: Nearly 30 million Americans are receiving unemployment benefits, and the jobless rate stands at 8.4 percent. And that dichotomy, economists fear, could obscure the need for an additional economic stimulus that most say is sorely needed.

The trend is on track to exacerbate dramatic wealth and income gaps in the U.S., where divides are already wider than any other nation in the G-7, a group of major developed countries. Spiraling inequality can also contribute to political and financial instability, fuel social unrest and extend any economic recession.
 
The growing divide could also have damaging implications for President Donald Trump's reelection bid. Economic downturns historically have been harmful if not fatal for incumbent presidents, and Trump's base of working-class, blue-collar voters in the Midwest are among the demographics hurting the most. The White House has worked to highlight a rapid economic recovery as a primary reason to reelect the president, but his support on the issue is slipping: Nearly 3 in 5 people say the economy is on the wrong track, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
 
----Recent economic data and surveys have laid bare the growing divide. Americans saved a stunning $3.2 trillion in July, the same month that more than 1 in 7 households with children told the U.S. Census Bureau they sometimes or often didn’t have enough food. More than a quarter of adults surveyed have reported paying down debt faster than usual, according to a new AP-NORC poll, while the same proportion said they have been unable to make rent or mortgage payments or pay a bill.
 
And while the employment rate for high-wage workers has almost entirely recovered — by mid-July it was down just 1 percent from January — it remains down 15.4 percent for low-wage workers, according to Harvard’s Opportunity Insights economic tracker.
More

Closure of Hilton Times Square may be ‘tip of the iceberg’ of troubles facing New York hotels

Published Fri, Sep 4 20201:26 PM EDT
This week’s announcement of the permanent closure of the iconic 44-story Hilton Times Square hotel in the heart of New York City was a wake-up call for the embattled hospitality industry, especially in urban markets suffering from a coronavirus-driven tourism drought.

The move follows a decision earlier this week by Ashford Hospitality to hand over the keys to its recently purchased Embassy Suites in Midtown West to its lender after the real estate investment trust fell behind in debt payments.

In fact, 34% of hotels in New York City alone are currently delinquent, and hospitality investment bank Robert Douglas sees more hotels at risk of closing.

“Most hotels are using capital reserves to help cover interest payments in the near term and the vast majority of hotels in New York City have missed debt service coverage tests that will result in cash flow sweeps and will limit the ability, absent lender agreement, to get loan extensions that would normally be automatic,” said Doug Hercher, managing director and principal at Robert Douglas. “This is the tip of the iceberg.”

Fourteen New York City properties with loans in the commercial mortgage-backed securities universe are 60 days or more behind payment, according to database of securitized mortgages Trepp. Tracking individual loans, the Standard Hotel in the Meatpacking District, the Holiday Inn in the Financial District and Tryp by Wyndham Times Square South are among the properties that have defaulted.

A large number of these hotels are located in and around Times Square and Midtown, neighborhoods in New York City that typically draw thousands of tourists and are popular places to stay for business travel.

Broadway is always a natural draw for international tourists, and staying at a hotel nearby is often part of the experience. But with shows not expected to return to the Great White Way until next year, hotels near the biggest theaters remain nearly empty.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic, experts were concerned that there were too many hotel rooms in New York City. Over the last five years, developers added more hotel rooms to the Big Apple than any other market in the U.S. — 6,131 in 2019, up from the 3,696 rooms in 2018, according to hotel management analytics firm Smith Travel Research.

----The stress hotels are facing is not confined to New York City. Trepp data shows delinquencies are rising significantly in Houston, Chicago and Los Angeles.

The American Hotel & Lodging Association and other lobbying groups continue to push Congress for additional financial relief as Paycheck Protection Program loans dry up, leaving owners’ concerns heightened.

“We need urgent, bipartisan action from Congress now to keep hotels open so that our industry and our employees can survive and recover from this public health crisis,” AHLA chief Chip Rogers said.

Elsewhere, the economic news isn’t good either. And we still have flu season to come on top of a continuing coronavirus pandemic. Will the coming Christmas retail season disappoint this year?

Pandemic turns summer into European tourism’s leanest season

BRUGES, Belgium (AP) — Bruges mayor Dirk De fauw first realized something was desperately wrong with European tourism when on a brisk March morning he crossed the Burg square in front of the Gothic city hall and there was nothing but silence.

“There are always people. Always,” De fauw said. That morning?

“Nothing. Nobody is on that large square” at the heart of one of Europe’s most picturesque cities, he said.

Six months later, as Europe’s leanest tourist summer season in recent history is starting to draw to a close, COVID-19 is yet to loosen its suffocating grip on the continent.

If anything the pandemic might tighten it over the coming months, with losses piling up in the tens of billions of euros across the 27-nation European Union, and the continent’s vaunted government support and social security system under increasing strain to prop up the sector.

The upheaval so far, the bloc’s executive European Commission said, shows that “revenue losses during the first half of 2020 for hotels, restaurants, tour operators, long distance train operators and airlines were roughly 85-90%.” No country has been exempt in an area spanning from Greece’s beaches to the trattorias in Rome and the museums of Paris.

And even now, the European Commission told The Associated Press, “bookings for September and October remain abnormally low,” as dire as 10% of capacity in Bruges. It dents hopes that a brief uptick in business in July would be a harbinger of something more permanent.
More

Extend furlough scheme 'or risk second wave of job cuts'

7 September 2020
The UK risks a second wave of job cuts and a slower economic recovery if it does not extend its furlough scheme, leading business groups have warned
.
Manufacturing body Make UK said the job retention scheme should last beyond October for hard-hit sectors that are already slashing posts.

The CBI meanwhile said a replacement was needed to avoid a "cliff edge".

The Prime Minister has refused to extend the scheme, saying it would only keep people "in suspended animation".

Under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, workers placed on leave have received 80% of their pay, up to a maximum of £2,500 a month.

At first this was all paid for by the government, but firms are now having to make a contribution to wages as well.

Almost 10 million have benefited, but the programme will end on 31 October prompting warnings that a wave of cuts could follow.

In a survey of more than 200 manufacturing firms, Make UK said more than 60% wanted the scheme extended for strategic industries such as aerospace and car manufacturing.

A further quarter said it should be continued should there be further lockdowns or a second wave of infections.

Make UK noted that Germany, Belgium, Australia and France had all decided to extend or launch new wage support schemes into next year.

----The head of the CBI, Dame Carolyn Fairbairn, told the Financial Times that she acknowledged the furlough scheme - which is expected to cost £80bn - had been expensive, but said it had been "an absolute lifesaver" and more help was needed.

She said that about a quarter of businesses in the hospitality, retail, leisure and travel sectors have warned they are at risk of insolvency.

"Many companies will find that cliff edge very difficult to manage… it's too soon to pull business support away at the end of October," she told the FT.

Dame Carolyn said any new scheme should be targeted at companies most in need, have less generous terms than the existing scheme, and should not be used to support jobs that were never going to return.

She warned there could be a rise in firms making redundancies from mid-September - to allow for the 45-day notice period needed for redundancy proceedings ahead of the October cut-off.
More

“I am not crazy; my reality is just different from yours.”

President Trump, with apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

China’s Xi Defends Data; H.K. Seen Easing Limits: Virus Update

Bloomberg News
Updated on September 8, 2020, 5:41 AM GMT+1

President Donald Trump said at a White House briefing Monday that a vaccine may be ready in October. Meanwhile, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said he would heed the advice of scientists about whether to get a coronavirus vaccine if one were to become available before November’s presidential election.

France reported more than 4,000 new coronavirus infections on Monday, with the average pace of daily cases over the past seven days continuing to climb. India, the world’s new Covid-19 epicenter, surpassed Brazil as the second-worst hit country.

China’s president at an awards ceremony Tuesday said its coronavirus information has been true and transparent, denying Trump’s earlier claim that China has thousands more virus deaths than it has reported. The Bank of England’s chief economist warned against extending a government program to retain employees during the pandemic and said that some jobs “may well not be coming back.”

Key Developments:

Key coronavirus forecast predicts over 410,000 total U.S. deaths by Jan. 1: ‘The worst is yet to come’

Published Fri, Sep 4 202011:20 AM EDT  Updated Sun, Sep 6 20205:06 PM EDT
The U.S. will top more than 410,000 Covid-19 deaths by the end of the year as the country heads into the fall and winter, according to a new forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

Covid-19 has already killed at least 186,800 people in the U.S., according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The model by IHME, whose models have previously been cited by the White House and state officials, forecasts that the death toll will more than double by Jan. 1 and could reach as high as 620,000 if states aggressively ease coronavirus restrictions and people disregard public health guidance.

“The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, told reporters on a conference call Friday.

In June, IHME predicted that the death toll in the U.S. would reach 200,000 by October, which appears to be on track. Some epidemiologists and mathematicians, however, have criticized IHME for making predictions too far into the future. 

IHME previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1. The model now predicts that the daily death toll could rise to nearly 3,000 per day in December, up from over 800 per day now, according to Hopkins data.

IHME released three new projections based on different assumptions: a worst-case scenario, a best-case scenario and a most likely scenario. The most likely scenario estimates that Covid-19 will kill 410,450 people in the U.S. by Jan. 1. The worst-case scenario, which assumes that restrictions and mask directives will ease, projects up to 620,028 people in the U.S. will die by then and the best-case scenario, which assumes universal masking, predicts that 288,380 people in the U.S. will die from Covid-19 in 2020.
More

West Virginia University suspends in-person undergrad classes amid spike in COVID-19 cases

"This pause in face-to-face undergraduate instruction will give us time to monitor the steadily climbing cases of COVID-19," a university official said.
Sept. 7, 2020, 10:52 PM BST

West Virginia University announced Monday that it would suspend in-person classes at its main campus because of concerns over a recent spike in coronavirus infections.

The university said in-person undergraduate classes would be canceled Tuesday at its main campus in Morgantown and then shift to online-only instruction through Sept. 25. The school said graduate-level and professional courses would continue to be offered in person during the same period.

In a statement, university officials said the decision was made "in direct response to a recent increase in positive cases in students on the Morgantown campus, as well as concern for the probability of increased cases following several reports of parties held this holiday weekend where groups should have been in quarantine."

West Virginia University enrolls nearly 30,000 students across all its campuses and programs. The state had nearly 11,600 confirmed cases of the coronavirus as of Monday afternoon, according to NBC News' tally.


"This pause in face-to-face undergraduate instruction will give us time to monitor the steadily climbing cases of COVID-19," Dr. Jeffrey Coben, associate vice president of health affairs and dean of the School of Public Health, said in a statement. "There is increasing evidence that crowded indoor gatherings, such as those that occurred over the weekend, can serve as super-spreader events."

The university said that it suspended 29 students Sunday amid "ongoing COVID-19 investigations" and that "additional sanctions are pending."

Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Skeleton Technologies working on graphene “SuperBattery” for EVs, signs €1 billion LOI with a leading automotive manufacturer

Posted: Sep 07, 2020 by Roni Peleg
Estonian startup Skeleton Technologies is reportedly developing a graphene-enhanced “SuperBattery” that can be charged in just 15 seconds, and can go through hundreds of thousands of charge-recharge cycles without degrading. It was also reported that Skeleton recently signed a €1 billion letter of intent with a leading automotive manufacturer to bring the technology to market, most likely in 2023 according to Taavi Madiberk, founder and chief executive of Skeleton.

“This will be a key enabler of the energy transition,” says Madiberk. “In most cases we see that batteries are not able to fully replace the older technologies — we still have hybrid vehicles or the need for backup generators.”

Skeleton’s graphene-based battery is hoping to help bridge the gap where lithium-ion batteries or hydrogen fuel cells are still not quite meeting energy requirements. The company has announced a partnership with Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to complete the development.

Electric cars will be a key use case, as slow recharge times are still one of the major headaches for electric vehicle owners.

Also, lithium-ion batteries degrade over time, limiting their lifespans. The warranties offered on electric cars are telling: Renault offers a three-year warranty for the Zoe, Nissan covers the Leaf for five years and Tesla gives an eight-year warranty to Model S drivers.

Developing batteries that can overcome some of these issues is a Holy Grail for the auto industry.
Supercapacitors — which store charge in an electrical field, without the need for a chemical reaction to release it — have been considered as one potential answer. Supercapacitors charge up fast and can deliver a powerful energy kick to a vehicle, but they have one big drawback: they are not good at storing energy in the long term, so they are of little use for long car journeys.

Combining some elements of supercapacitors with lithium-ion batteries to get the best of both is an attractive approach. “We looked at the dry electrode route that Tesla is exploring, but decided to go a different way,” says Madiberk. “Tesla is trying to go for maximum energy, but we are looking at the most efficient way of getting power.”

The SuperBattery combines the way supercapacitors store charge in electrical fields with a small amount of “wet” chemical reaction to allow the batteries to store energy for longer.

Madiberk says the battery is designed to be used in combination with lithium-ion batteries or even hydrogen fuel cells.

“We are not a silver bullet or a complete solution on our own. You won’t have long-range electric vehicles running purely on our technology. But combining a lithium-ion battery with a SuperBattery can reduce charging time, as well as the overall cost and weight of the battery system in the car. We are a building block in developing a much more efficient system.”

“European research in energy storage — especially in Germany — is clearly some of the best in the world,” he adds. “It is just that our ability to commercialize it is not as good. That’s where we come in. Maybe we can change that.”

Source: sifted.eu

US Politics Betting Odds

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished August

DJIA: 28,430 Up. NASDAQ: 11,775 Up. SP500: 3,500 Up.

The NASDAQ remained up. The DJIA and SP500 turned up in uly. With stock mania running fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, especially tech stock mania in the NASDAQ, the indicators are essentially worthless after all these years. I will discontinue this section at the end of the month.

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