Saturday 19 September 2020

Special Update 19/09/2020 Stormy Times Ahead.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1294 - Brent Crude 43.15

Spot Gold 1951

 

Covid-19 cases 12/09/20 World 28,554,007

Deaths 927,493

Covid-19 cases 19/09/20 World 30,563,439

Deaths 956,341

The Siege of Paris (1870–71) Starts.

The siege of Paris, lasting from 19 September 1870 to 28 January 1871, and the consequent capture of the city by Prussian forces, led to French defeat in the Franco-Prussian War and the establishment of the German Empire as well as the Paris Commune.

More

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Paris_(1870%E2%80%9371)

 

Are we in the calm before the storm? Well possibly.

Covid-19 is surging again, and we haven’t yet entered the northern hemisphere flu season. Europe seems about to repeat March – May. Lock downs next? Hopefully not.

The employment recovery seems to be stalling in America, with the threat of more unemployment to come after the November 3rd election.

President Trump, cruising unaided to a one term defeat, now has a chance to stamp his legacy on the Supreme Court. Will he take the opportunity to put an extreme right Justice on the court, the way President Clinton placed extreme left Justice Ginsburg on the court?

If he does, US politics over the rest of his term will be interesting!

With the increasing prospect of a Biden-Harris Democrat Socialist presidency next year, the markets will soon have to start factoring in re-distributive wealth taxes, universal basic income, more regulations, and the like. Valuations will soon face an intense period of adjustment.

In hurricane/storm news, the Gulf of Mexico has another tropical storm with the potential to become a hurricane. The Atlantic has 4 tropical cyclones at present so the next few weeks could easily be disruptive.

A “hard Brexit” looms for GB and the rump-EU.

All in all, we probably are in the calm before the storm.

Equities sink on virus angst, Fed aftermath; gold, yen rise

September 18, 2020

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