“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection,
which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by
experience, which is the bitterest.”
Confucius
As
we close in on 30 million global official Covid-19 cases, due to be hit later
today, the real number might be up to ten times higher, our “old normal” world
of 2009 – 2019 is fast being left behind as our world is turning upside down
into the “new normal.”
As
we discovered earlier in all the developed world economic lockdowns, officially
most of us work in “non-essential” economic sectors. The new normal is going to
require far less workers, offices, dense city centres, conspicuous consumption,
and across “blue state” America it seems, police.
It
also, according to Fed Chairman Powell, is going to require lower (or negative)
interest rates out to 2023. Although he didn’t specifically mention negative
interest rates.
In
effect, the old order we took for granted is now in flux, and no matter who
wins the US elections in about six weeks, a massive period of adjustment for
nearly all lies directly ahead.
Historically,
tumultuous economic disruption has usually been accompanied with societal
change, not always orderly.
Up
until now, the Great Coronavirus Pandemic Crisis of 2020, has been largely
bought off with trillions of new fiat money creation to maintain some semblance
of societal and economic order. That phony phase of the GCPC is coming towards
a phased out end.
Coming
next in the next few months or possibly years, a commercial and residential
real estate battle between renters and landlords, mortgage issuers and
servicers and defaulting mortgage holders. Affluent flight from increasingly lawless,
high rise city centres towards safer suburbs and rural towns and cities.
Tomorrow
will not be like today, which was like yesterday. And this assumes that with a
vaccine next year we get control of the Covid-19 Pandemic, and that SARS-CoV-2
doesn’t mutate in a negative way.
Stocks fall as Fed fails to offer
fresh cause for cheer
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Investment between the
United States and China tumbled to a nine-year low in the first half of 2020,
hit by bilateral tensions that could see more Chinese companies come under
pressure to divest U.S. operations, a research report said.
Investment, both direct investment by
companies and venture capital flows, between the two countries fell 16.2% to
$10.9 billion (8.44 billion pounds) in January-June from the same period a year
earlier - also hurt by the coronavirus pandemic, according to figures from
consultancy Rhodium Group.
That’s a far cry from half-yearly totals of
nearly $40 billion seen in 2016 and 2017.
Citing national security risks posed by
Chinese technology firms, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has
sharply expanded actions to hobble Chinese companies.
This has included putting telecoms giant
Huawei Technologies Co Ltd on its trade blacklist, threatening similar action
for Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp 0981.HK and ordering TikTok owner ByteDance to divest the
short-form video app.
---- “At a time of rising
discomfort with US-China technology integration numerous other companies - both
Chinese firms operating in the U.S. and U.S. firms with a presence in China may
be forced to divest,” the report said.
It added that the U.S. treatment of
ByteDance and the broader shift away from U.S.-China technology integration may
lead to policies which make it more difficult for U.S. tech firms to operate in
China.
Investment by U.S. firms in China in the
first half tumbled 31% to $4.1 billion, while investment by Chinese companies
in the United States rose 38% to $4.7 billion, the report said. That was mostly
due to one deal - a Tencent Music TME.N -led consortium’s purchase of a minority stake in Universal
Music group for $3.4 billion.
Tenants shed desks to cut costs, allow more home working
London firms are dumping their
unwanted office space as the pandemic forces tenants to review their
real-estate needs.
Excess space being offered for rent
by companies in the capital has surged to the most in at least 15 years as
businesses look to cut costs and shift more staff to long-term home working,
according to research by real-estate data company CoStar Group Inc.
More than 1 million square feet
(92,900 square meters) has become available for sublet since June, the
equivalent of two Gherkin skyscrapers. The trend is so far limited to London:
the city’s second-hand space surged by 21% in the period, compared with just a
1% increase for the rest of the U.K.
“The success of home working,
coupled with ongoing concerns around public transport and coronavirus
infections, has led many firms to reconsider their office space needs,” Mark Stansfield,
head of U.K. analytics at CoStar, wrote in a note to clients. “Some of this
impact is now being seen in the data.”
Second-hand space poses a threat to developers building new
offices, offering tenants seeking to move a cheaper alternative. While newly
developed space that has yet to be leased in London remains relatively scarce,
overall vacancy rates are increasing due to the buildings being offered up by
companies that no longer need them.
Banks including Credit Suisse Group
AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those companies
currently trying to rent out excess space they no longer need, Bloomberg News reported.
Following the markets on both sides of the Atlantic since 1968. A dinosaur, who evolved with the financial system as it was perverted from capitalism to banksterism after the great Nixonian error of abandoning the dollar's link to gold instead of simply revaluing gold. Our money is too important to be left to probity challenged central banksters and crooked politicians.
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