Baltic Dry Index. 1281 -08 Brent Crude 41.70
Spot Gold 1942
Coronavirus Cases 17/9/20 World 29,918,735
Deaths 945,311
“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection,
which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by
experience, which is the bitterest.”
As
we close in on 30 million global official Covid-19 cases, due to be hit later
today, the real number might be up to ten times higher, our “old normal” world
of 2009 – 2019 is fast being left behind as our world is turning upside down
into the “new normal.”
As
we discovered earlier in all the developed world economic lockdowns, officially
most of us work in “non-essential” economic sectors. The new normal is going to
require far less workers, offices, dense city centres, conspicuous consumption,
and across “blue state” America it seems, police.
It
also, according to Fed Chairman Powell, is going to require lower (or negative)
interest rates out to 2023. Although he didn’t specifically mention negative
interest rates.
In
effect, the old order we took for granted is now in flux, and no matter who
wins the US elections in about six weeks, a massive period of adjustment for
nearly all lies directly ahead.
Historically,
tumultuous economic disruption has usually been accompanied with societal
change, not always orderly.
Up
until now, the Great Coronavirus Pandemic Crisis of 2020, has been largely
bought off with trillions of new fiat money creation to maintain some semblance
of societal and economic order. That phony phase of the GCPC is coming towards
a phased out end.
Coming
next in the next few months or possibly years, a commercial and residential
real estate battle between renters and landlords, mortgage issuers and
servicers and defaulting mortgage holders. Affluent flight from increasingly lawless,
high rise city centres towards safer suburbs and rural towns and cities.
Tomorrow
will not be like today, which was like yesterday. And this assumes that with a
vaccine next year we get control of the Covid-19 Pandemic, and that SARS-CoV-2
doesn’t mutate in a negative way.
Stocks fall as Fed fails to offer fresh cause for cheer
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Investment between the
United States and China tumbled to a nine-year low in the first half of 2020,
hit by bilateral tensions that could see more Chinese companies come under
pressure to divest U.S. operations, a research report said.
Investment, both direct investment by
companies and venture capital flows, between the two countries fell 16.2% to
$10.9 billion (8.44 billion pounds) in January-June from the same period a year
earlier - also hurt by the coronavirus pandemic, according to figures from
consultancy Rhodium Group.
That’s a far cry from half-yearly totals of
nearly $40 billion seen in 2016 and 2017.
Citing national security risks posed by
Chinese technology firms, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has
sharply expanded actions to hobble Chinese companies.
This has included putting telecoms giant
Huawei Technologies Co Ltd on its trade blacklist, threatening similar action
for Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp 0981.HK and ordering TikTok owner ByteDance to divest the
short-form video app.
---- “At a time of rising
discomfort with US-China technology integration numerous other companies - both
Chinese firms operating in the U.S. and U.S. firms with a presence in China may
be forced to divest,” the report said.
It added that the U.S. treatment of
ByteDance and the broader shift away from U.S.-China technology integration may
lead to policies which make it more difficult for U.S. tech firms to operate in
China.
Investment by U.S. firms in China in the
first half tumbled 31% to $4.1 billion, while investment by Chinese companies
in the United States rose 38% to $4.7 billion, the report said. That was mostly
due to one deal - a Tencent Music TME.N -led consortium’s purchase of a minority stake in Universal
Music group for $3.4 billion.
More
London Firms Are Dumping Office Space as Workers Resist Return
Jack Sidders
September 16, 2020, 6:23 AM EDT
London firms are dumping their
unwanted office space as the pandemic forces tenants to review their
real-estate needs.
Excess space being offered for rent
by companies in the capital has surged to the most in at least 15 years as
businesses look to cut costs and shift more staff to long-term home working,
according to research by real-estate data company CoStar Group Inc.
More than 1 million square feet
(92,900 square meters) has become available for sublet since June, the
equivalent of two Gherkin skyscrapers. The trend is so far limited to London:
the city’s second-hand space surged by 21% in the period, compared with just a
1% increase for the rest of the U.K.
“The success of home working,
coupled with ongoing concerns around public transport and coronavirus
infections, has led many firms to reconsider their office space needs,” Mark Stansfield,
head of U.K. analytics at CoStar, wrote in a note to clients. “Some of this
impact is now being seen in the data.”
Second-hand space poses a threat to developers building new offices, offering tenants seeking to move a cheaper alternative. While newly developed space that has yet to be leased in London remains relatively scarce, overall vacancy rates are increasing due to the buildings being offered up by companies that no longer need them.
Banks including Credit Suisse Group
AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those companies
currently trying to rent out excess space they no longer need, Bloomberg News reported.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/london-firms-are-dumping-office-space-as-workers-resist-return?srnd=premium-canadaWhen to Stop Working From Home? How About Never, Workers Say
Companies are trying to get their workforce back to the office, but employees aren’t embracing the idea of returning just yet.By Suzanne Woolley
A June survey of 1,000 professionals by management consulting firm Korn Ferry asked a simple question: “What are you most looking forward to when you return to the office?” About half pointed to camaraderie with colleagues, though 20% said they looked forward to nothing at all.
Nearly two thirds of workers say they’re more productive working from home
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/back-to-the-office-some-workers-don-t-want-to-do-it-full-time?cmpid=BBD091620_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=200916&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily
Yelp Reveals 60% Of Business Closures Are Now Permanent
by Tyler
Durden Wed, 09/16/2020 - 21:50
The virus pandemic shock is generating deep economic
scarring, the likes of which many have never seen before. The
virus-induced downturn has led the economy into a "liquidity
trap," in which interest rates will likely reside on the zero lower bound until 2023,
and monetary policy could have trouble stimulating the real economy
besides artificially inflating asset prices. As Washington
pumps fiscal injection after fiscal injection into the real economy,
creating unstable artificial growth, the latest lapse of fiscal
support, now 46 days, has sent the economy into another slump.For more color on the deep economic scarring, not just a deterioration in the labor market, we turn our attention to a Yelp report published Wednesday that revealed as of Aug. 31, 163,735 businesses have closed on the platform, a 23% increase since mid-July.
Yelp pointed out an increase of permanent business closures over the past six months, now reaching 97,966, or about 60% of closed businesses will never reopen their doors again.
"As of August 31, 163,735 total U.S. businesses on Yelp have closed since the beginning of the pandemic (observed as March 1), a 23% increase since July 10. In the wake of COVID-19 cases increasing and local restrictions continuing to change in many states we’re seeing both permanent and temporary closures rise across the nation, with 60% of those closed businesses not reopening (97,966 permanently closed)."
More
Next,
after a horribly damaging investigation into the 737-Max airplane crashes, Boeing,
Boeing, gone? Just wait until the US tort bar get copies of this!
Boeing Deception Alleged in Scathing House Report on Max Crashes
By Alan Levin
September 16, 2020, 5:00 AM EDT
----A 245-page report issued Wednesday provides the most
scathing account so far of the miscalculations that led to 346 deaths, the
grounding of Boeing’s best-selling jet and billions of dollars in losses for
the manufacturing giant.“The Max crashes were not the result of a singular failure, technical mistake or mismanaged event,” the report by the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee said. “They were the horrific culmination of a series of faulty technical assumptions by Boeing’s engineers, a lack of transparency on the part of Boeing’s management and grossly insufficient oversight by the” Federal Aviation Administration.
The report -- the result of five investigative hearings, a review of about 600,000 pages of documents, interviews with top Boeing and FAA officials and information provided by whistle-blowers -- makes the case for broad changes in the FAA’s oversight of the aircraft industry.
It offers a more searing version of events than the sometimes technical language in previous crash reports and investigations, including one conducted by the Transportation Department’s Inspector General.
Read More: Senior Boeing Engineers Unaware of 737 Max Issues Before Crashes
The conclusions were drawn by the majority staff under committee Chairman Peter DeFazio. The report cites five main reasons for the crashes:
- Pressures to update the 737’s design swiftly and inexpensively
- Faulty assumptions about the design and performance of pilots
- What the report called a “culture of concealment” by Boeing
- Inherent conflicts of interest in the system that deputizes Boeing employees to act on behalf of the government
- The company’s sway over top FAA managers
“The problem is it was compliant and not safe -- and people died,” he said. “Obviously, the system is inadequate.”
----The report also said the responses by Boeing and the FAA to the first accident -- warnings to pilots issued in early November 2018 -- weren’t adequate to prevent a second crash.
“Both Boeing and the FAA gambled with the public’s safety in the aftermath of the Lion Air crash, resulting in the death of 157 more individuals on Ethiopian Airlines flight 302, less than five months later,” the report said.
The guidance on how to avoid an accident during an MCAS failure detailed the symptoms pilots would see and reminded crews how to shut it off. The committee criticized Boeing and the FAA for not mentioning the system’s name.
FAA officials have said they debated whether to include MCAS in the directive, but opted not to because it wasn’t mentioned in pilot flight manuals. Boeing within days sent additional guidance to airlines on MCAS and how it worked. Details on MCAS were also widely reported in the news media and internal airline documents obtained by Bloomberg show that it had been explained to Ethiopian Airlines pilots before their crash.
According to a 2016 survey obtained by the committee, 39% of Boeing’s Authorized Representatives, senior engineers who conducted reviews for FAA, at times perceived “undue pressure” on them from management.
More
Southwest temporarily grounds 130 Boeing 737-800 airplanes over weight data
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Southwest Airlines Co
LUV.N said late Wednesday
it temporarily grounded 130 Boeing BA.N 737-800 aircraft after it
discovered discrepancies in aircraft weight data.
Southwest said the discrepancy in weight
data is 75 lbs.
The airline said the temporary halt to
flights would “cause some delays and/or cancellations; however, we anticipate
the impact to our operation to be minimal.”
Boeing didn’t immediately respond to a
Reuters request for comment.
In January, the U.S. Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) said it was seeking to fine Southwest $3.92 million for
alleged weight infractions on 21,505 flights on 44 aircraft between May 1, 2018
and Aug. 9, 2018.
The FAA alleged that Southwest operated the
flights with incorrect operational empty weights, and center of gravity or
moment data, which is used to determine how many passengers and how much fuel
can be safely carried and where cargo should be located.
More
Finally,
we are officially in Solar Sunspot Cycle 25.
According to an international panel of experts, the sunspot number hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, bringing an end to old Solar Cycle 24. Since then, sunspot counts have been slowly increasing, heralding new Solar Cycle 25.
Click here to view NOAA's interactive sunspot plotter
"How quickly solar activity rises is an indicator on how strong the next solar cycle will be," says Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. "Although we've seen a steady increase in sunspot activity this year, it is slow."
The panel believes that new Solar Cycle 25 will be a weak one, peaking in 2025 at levels similar to old Solar Cycle 24. If their prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 25 (like Solar Cycle 24 before it) will be one of the weakest since record-keeping began in 1755.
"While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, violent eruptions from the sun can occur at any time," warns Biesecker. Indeed, even Solar Minimum can produce a superstorm, so Solar Cycle 25 should not be taken lightly despite the panel's low expectations. Radio blackouts, power outages and severe geomagnetic storms are possible in the years ahead.
More.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is
time to reform (or pause and reflect).”
Covid-19 Corner
Covid-19 Corner
Global Cases Near 30 Million; N.
Z. Economy Slumps: Virus Update
Global Cases Near 30 Million; N. Z. Economy Slumps: Virus Update
New Zealand suffered its worst economic slump since the Great Depression in the second quarter as a strict nationwide lockdown to combat the coronavirus brought the country to a standstill. The OECD said the world economy may withstand the pandemic better than previously forecast.
President Donald Trump said a coronavirus vaccine could be distributed widely to the public as early as October, contradicting statements by some of his top health officials that ranged from the spring to the end of 2021.
Key
Developments:
Key Developments:
- Global Tracker: Cases pass 29.6 million; deaths exceed 937,000
- Tracking the Spread of the Coronavirus Outbreak in the U.S.
- Trump wants a vaccine faster than anyone has ever made one
- Virus risks a decade of health, education gains, World Bank says
- HHS steered $700 million from CDC for Warp Speed vaccine program
- Worker-dorm infections add to Singapore construction woes
Beijing tightens controls as new
coronavirus outbreak fans fear of second wave
Beijing tightens controls as new coronavirus outbreak fans fear of second wave
By Euronews with AP • last updated: 16/06/2020
Beijing is imposing further control measures in an attempt to prevent a new outbreak in the capital from spreading to other parts of the country.
In addition to locking down communities and ordering mass testing of thousands of people, China's capital is banning residents of areas considered at high risk from leaving the city, according to health authorities. Those from such areas who have already left must report to local health bureaus as soon as possible.
The number of passengers on buses, trains and subways will also be limited and all will be required to wear masks.
Authorities confirmed 106 cases
since Friday in what looks to be the largest outbreak since China largely
stopped its spread at home more than two months ago.
Morehttps://www.euronews.com/2020/06/15/new-coronavirus-outbreak-in-china-fans-fears-of-second-wave
U.S. Cases Rise 0.4%; California’s Outbreak Easing: Virus Update
Bloomberg NewsU.S. health officials offered conflicting estimates of when Americans should expect coronavirus vaccines to be widely available. Preparations are underway to ensure that vaccines will be shipped to administration sites within 24 hours of clearance by federal regulators.
AstraZeneca Plc’s trial remains paused in the U.S. pending a regulatory review of an incident in which a participant became ill. But symptoms probably weren’t related to the shot itself, according to documents sent to participants. Eli Lilly & Co. gained after an experimental antibody treatment showed promising results.
The global economic slump ignited by the pandemic won’t be as sharp as previously feared this year, according to the OECD, which upgraded its outlook in response to rebounds in activity since lockdowns eased.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/u-s-cases-rise-0-7-pfizer-trial-shows-progress-virus-update?in_source=postr_story_0
As India’s virus cases rise, so do questions over death toll
NEW DELHI (AP) — When Narayan Mitra died on
July 16, a day after being admitted to the hospital for fever and breathing
difficulties, his name never appeared on any of the official lists put out
daily of those killed by the coronavirus.
Test results later revealed that Mitra had
indeed been infected with COVID-19, as had his son, Abhijit, and four other
family members in Silchar, in northeastern Assam state, on India’s border with
Bangladesh.
But Narayan Mitra still isn’t counted as a
coronavirus victim. The virus was deemed an “incidental” factor, and a panel of
doctors decided his death was due to a previously diagnosed neurological
disorder that causes muscle weakness.
“He died because of the virus, and there is no
point lying about it,” Abhijit Mitra said of the finding, which came despite
national guidelines that ask states to not attribute deaths to underlying
conditions in cases where COVID-19 has been confirmed by tests.
Such exclusions could explain why India, which
has recorded more than 5.1 million infections — second only to the United
States — has a death toll of about 83,000 in a country of 1.3 billion people.
India’s Health Ministry has cited this as
evidence of its success in fighting the pandemic and a basis for relaxing
restrictions and reopening the economy after Prime Minister Narendra Modi
ordered a strict lockdown of the entire population earlier this year.
More
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Physicists 'trick' photons into behaving like electrons using a 'synthetic' magnetic field
Date:
September 14, 2020
Source:
University of Exeter
Summary:
Scientists have discovered an elegant way of manipulating light using a
'synthetic' Lorentz force -- which in nature is responsible for many
fascinating phenomena including the Aurora Borealis.
Scientists have discovered an elegant way of manipulating light using a
"synthetic" Lorentz force -- which in nature is responsible for many
fascinating phenomena including the Aurora Borealis.
A team of theoretical physicists from the University of Exeter has
pioneered a new technique to create tuneable artificial magnetic fields, which
enable photons to mimic the dynamics of charged particles in real magnetic
fields.
The team believe the new research, published in leading journal Nature
Photonics, could have important implications for future photonic devices as
it provides a novel way of manipulating light below the diffraction limit.
When charged particles, like electrons, pass through a magnetic field
they feel a Lorentz force due to their electric charge, which curves their
trajectory around the magnetic field lines.
This Lorentz force is responsible for many fascinating phenomena,
ranging from the beautiful Northern Lights, to the famous quantum-Hall effect
whose discovery was awarded the Nobel Prize.
However, because photons do not carry an electric charge, they cannot be
straightforwardly controlled using real magnetic fields since they do not
experience a Lorentz force; a severe limitation that is dictated by the
fundamental laws of physics.
The research team have shown that it is possible to create artificial
magnetic fields for light by distorting honeycomb metasurfaces -- ultra-thin 2D
surfaces that are engineered to have structure on a scale much smaller than the
wavelength of light.
The Exeter team were inspired by a remarkable discovery ten years ago,
where it was shown that electrons propagating through a strained graphene
membrane behave as if they were subjected to a large magnetic field.
The major drawback with this strain engineering approach is that to tune
the artificial magnetic field one is required to modify the strain pattern with
precision, which is extremely challenging, if not impossible, to do with photonic
structures.
The Exeter physicists have proposed an elegant solution to overcome this
fundamental lack of tunability.
Charlie-Ray Mann, the lead scientist and author of the study, explains:
"These metasurfaces, support hybrid light-matter excitations, called
polaritons, which are trapped on the metasurface.
"They are then deflected by the distortions in the metasurface in a
similar way to how magnetic fields deflect charged particles.
"By exploiting the hybrid nature of the polaritons, we show that
you can tune the artificial magnetic field by modifying the real
electromagnetic environment surrounding the metasurface."
For the study, the researchers embedded the metasurface between two
mirrors -- known as a photonic cavity -- and show that one can tune the
artificial magnetic field by changing only the width of the photonic cavity,
thereby removing the need to modify the distortion in the metasurface.
Charlie added: "We have even demonstrated that you can switch off
the artificial magnetic field entirely at a critical cavity width, without
having to remove the distortion in the metasurface, something that is
impossible to do in graphene or any system that emulates graphene.
"Using this mechanism you can bend the trajectory of the polaritons
using a tunable Lorentz-like force and also observe Landau quantization of the
polariton cyclotron orbits, in direct analogy with what happens to charged
particles in real magnetic fields.
"Moreover, we have shown that you can drastically reconfigure the
polariton Landau level spectrum by simply changing the cavity width."
Dr Eros Mariani, the lead supervisor of the study, said: "Being
able to emulate phenomena with photons that are usually thought to be exclusive
to charged particles is fascinating from a fundamental point of view, but it
could also have important implications for photonics applications.
"We're excited to see where this discovery leads, as it poses many
intriguing questions which can be explored in many different experimental
platforms across the electromagnetic spectrum."
US Politics Betting Odds
“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself
to be a fool.”
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 28,430 Up. NASDAQ: 11,775 Up. SP500:
3,500 Up.
The NASDAQ
remained up. The DJIA and SP500 turned up in July. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, especially
tech stock mania in the NASDAQ, the indicators are essentially worthless after
all these years. I will discontinue this section at the end of the month.
investigate this site
ReplyDeletehe has a good point
ReplyDelete