Thursday 17 September 2020

A World Turning Upside Down.


Baltic Dry Index. 1281 -08  Brent Crude 41.70
Spot Gold 1942

Coronavirus Cases 17/9/20 World 29,918,735
Deaths 945,311

“By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.”

Confucius

As we close in on 30 million global official Covid-19 cases, due to be hit later today, the real number might be up to ten times higher, our “old normal” world of 2009 – 2019 is fast being left behind as our world is turning upside down into the “new normal.”

As we discovered earlier in all the developed world economic lockdowns, officially most of us work in “non-essential” economic sectors. The new normal is going to require far less workers, offices, dense city centres, conspicuous consumption, and across “blue state” America it seems, police.

It also, according to Fed Chairman Powell, is going to require lower (or negative) interest rates out to 2023. Although he didn’t specifically mention negative interest rates.

In effect, the old order we took for granted is now in flux, and no matter who wins the US elections in about six weeks, a massive period of adjustment for nearly all lies directly ahead.

Historically, tumultuous economic disruption has usually been accompanied with societal change, not always orderly.

Up until now, the Great Coronavirus Pandemic Crisis of 2020, has been largely bought off with trillions of new fiat money creation to maintain some semblance of societal and economic order. That phony phase of the GCPC is coming towards a phased out end.

Coming next in the next few months or possibly years, a commercial and residential real estate battle between renters and landlords, mortgage issuers and servicers and defaulting mortgage holders. Affluent flight from increasingly lawless, high rise city centres towards safer suburbs and rural towns and cities.

Tomorrow will not be like today, which was like yesterday. And this assumes that with a vaccine next year we get control of the Covid-19 Pandemic, and that SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t mutate in a negative way.

Stocks fall as Fed fails to offer fresh cause for cheer




By Hideyuki Sano  September 17, 2020 Tenants shed desks to cut costs, allow more home working

London firms are dumping their unwanted office space as the pandemic forces tenants to review their real-estate needs.

Excess space being offered for rent by companies in the capital has surged to the most in at least 15 years as businesses look to cut costs and shift more staff to long-term home working, according to research by real-estate data company CoStar Group Inc.

More than 1 million square feet (92,900 square meters) has become available for sublet since June, the equivalent of two Gherkin skyscrapers. The trend is so far limited to London: the city’s second-hand space surged by 21% in the period, compared with just a 1% increase for the rest of the U.K.

“The success of home working, coupled with ongoing concerns around public transport and coronavirus infections, has led many firms to reconsider their office space needs,” Mark Stansfield, head of U.K. analytics at CoStar, wrote in a note to clients. “Some of this impact is now being seen in the data.”

Second-hand space poses a threat to developers building new offices, offering tenants seeking to move a cheaper alternative. While newly developed space that has yet to be leased in London remains relatively scarce, overall vacancy rates are increasing due to the buildings being offered up by companies that no longer need them.

Banks including Credit Suisse Group AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those companies currently trying to rent out excess space they no longer need, Bloomberg News reported.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/london-firms-are-dumping-office-space-as-workers-resist-return?srnd=premium-canada

When to Stop Working From Home? How About Never, Workers Say

Companies are trying to get their workforce back to the office, but employees aren’t embracing the idea of returning just yet.
By Suzanne Woolley

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