Baltic Dry Index. 1328 -21 Brent Crude 39.58
Spot Gold 1930
Coronavirus Cases 09/9/20 World 27,670,146
Deaths 910,025
This is the way things are, and the Game has been
so successful that, like everything, it will get more and more successful until
it stops being successful.
George
Goodman, aka Adam Smith, The Money Game. 1968.
The big question this morning, are the rigged overpriced stock
casinos entering a correction, or is stock mania, led by fantasy priced tech
stocks, finally ending?
If the latter, is there anyway President Trump can be
re-elected?
If not, how badly will the stock casinos price-in a
Bush-Harris, Democrat Socialist, Wealth Tax presidency?
Add in a setback for one of the leading western Covid-19
vaccines, and perhaps we now won’t have a viable vaccine until the middle of
2021. If that is in fact the new reality, a great wave of firings, defaults,
and bankruptcies lies directly ahead in most of the G-7 economies.
Officially, the Oxford U.-AZ team hope to resume the trials in a few days. “AstraZeneca described it as a "routine" pause in the case of "an unexplained illness"”. I have my doubts. And now there a doubts over the Russian vaccine. See Covid-19 section below.
But even if resumed in a few days, will the public really volunteer to be guinea pigs in a great iffy vaccine experiment, that skipped over looking for long term effects?
Below, yesterday’s start to return to normality. My guess, after a short lived bounce, many
pro-money managers will want to take profits and sit out the year to protect
profits and bonuses.
Stocks Drop Amid Vaccine Concern; Dollar Rises: Markets Wrap
By Adam Haigh and Gregor Stuart Hunter
Updated on September 9, 2020, 3:49 AM GMT+1
Asian stocks fell with European equity futures amid worries
that a Covid-19 vaccine could be delayed and concern about equity valuations.
The dollar and Treasuries extended gains.Shares retreated across the region, though losses were shallower than the slide in U.S. equities overnight. S&P 500 futures pared losses but remained lower amid concern progress at AstraZeneca Plc has stalled in the hunt for a coronavirus vaccine, though Nasdaq 100 contracts ticked higher. The main U.S. benchmark closed almost 3% lower Tuesday, and the Nasdaq almost 5% as the selloff in U.S. technology shares picked up steam. Investors fled the high flyers that fueled a historic rally with Tesla suffering the worst rout in its history. Brent crude extended losses below $40 amid further signs of a bleak short-term outlook.
Investors are grappling with the recent market turbulence, assessing whether the pullback for equities is a sign of market health or the start of a larger drawdown that has further to go. For now, traders are seeking the safety of haven assets, pushing Treasury yields lower and strengthening the dollar.
“We don’t know exactly if this is the bottom, there could be more volatility,” Laila Pence, president of Pence Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “We’re taking the froth out of the market.”
Investors are monitoring progress on fighting the pandemic. AstraZeneca has put on hold a study testing a Covid-19 vaccine after a trial participant became ill.
Oil prices slip to lowest since June, Dow drops 632 points
Sept. 8, 2020 /
12:47 PM / Updated Sept. 8, 2020 at 5:01 PM
Sept. 8 (UPI) -- U.S. Markets fell on Tuesday as oil to their lowest level since
June amid a decline in demand due to the COVID-19
pandemic.West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, dropped $3.01 a barrel, or 7.6%, to trade at $36.76 a barrel, having traded as low as $36.13 earlier in the day marking the lowest level since June 16. Brent crude, the global benchmark, slipped more than 5.3%, to trade at $39.78, which is also its lowest level since June.
---- Tech stocks also dragged markets down on Tuesday, as Microsoft fell 5.41%, Zoom Video dropped 5.14%, Amazon declined 4.39%, Facebook lost 4.09%, Alphabet slid 3.64% and Netflix closed down 1.75%.
Tesla stock plummeted 21.06% for its largest single-day drop after it was not added to the S&P 500 after trading on Friday.
Bank of America said in a recent note to clients it will take three years for demand to recover from COVID-19 pandemic presuming there's a vaccine or cure by that time.
U.S.-China trade tensions rising along with production coming back online also affected semiconductor stocks as Nvidia fell 5.62%, Micron dropped 3.12%
WTI prices plunged into a record negative low in April but have made
gains since then, including a 90% rise in May. Prices moved higher after the
record low as international producers scaled back production to counteract the
decline in demand.
But recently prices have trended lower again. The WTI crude decline
Tuesday followed Saudi Aramco lowering its official selling prices for October,
sparking concerns about demand, said Helima Croft, RBC Capital Market's
managing director and global head of commodity strategy.
"Today's oil price move is a clear sign that the market now
seriously worries about the future of oil demand," said Rystad Energy's
senior oil markets analyst Paulo Rodriguez-Masiu. "The streak of losses is
driven by a stalling crude demand outlook for the rest of the year, with rising
cases of COVID-19 and the end of the summer driving season in the U.S., as well
as Asian refineries putting on [the] breaks."
More
Goldman Sachs says Wall Street's fear gauge is flashing a warning sign unseen since the dot-com crash in 2000
Shalini
Nagarajan September 8, 2020.
Goldman
Sachs said Wall Street's top fear gauge is flashing a warning signal not seen
in about two decades since the dot-com bubble burst in early 2000.
The CBOE Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, is the market's best indicator of expected volatility in the next 30 days. When the stock market rises, ordinarily the index declines, and vice versa.
A market that is steadily rising or falling has low volatility, but one in which rapid rises and falls follow in quick succession shows high volatility.
A reading below 20% for the VIX means that the market is operating in a low-risk environment, while above 20 shows fear is picking up. A reading above 30 reflects heightened volatility.
Goldman said this trend has been upended as both the benchmark S&P 500 and VIX index have been moving in tandem.
This means that since the dot-com crash, the volatility index is at the
highest it has been at a time when the S&P 500 is also at a peak since
March 2000.
"US equity markets have shown a strong 'vol up, spot up' pattern
driven by single stock markets but influencing the VIX," Goldman analysts
Rocky Fishman, John Marshall, and Rohith Medarametla wrote in a September 3
note, when the VIX stood at 26.6.
Another factor influencing the VIX is the concern that it may take
longer than usual to arrive at a final election result in November.
----"What is particularly unusual this time is that realized volatility on the index has remained low (in part because of negative growth-value correlation), with 1-month realized vol at just 11%, so the increase in volatility is coming in the form of elevated vol risk premium," they said.
The volatility risk premium is a representation of the compensation that
investors earn for providing protection at a time when realised market
volatility spikes unexpectedly.
The last time that the S&P 500 and the VIX were headed in the same
direction in this way was when the dot-com bubble popped in March 2000, and the
tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged about 80% from its peak to reach a trough at a
six-year low in October 2002.
Finally, the terrible reality of the wealth tax. Where
the theft prone left dreams of going next.
Wealth Tax – A Warning to Taxpayers
Over the last two decades, Western economies have been increasingly driven by debt. A significant contributor to the 2008 stock market crash was unsustainable debt. How did we fix the problem? We loaned even more. Since then Western nations have doubled the national debt levels. The Covid crisis makes it even worse. Governmental rescue programs are on rapid escalation with a huge decline in national fiscal income. This will have to be financed by either more loans, taxes or a combination thereof. Who or when to pay for it all, is quite unclear, but there will be no escape for taxpayers. A Wealth Tax (WT) is a recurring hot topic in crises, but a novelty to the UK.Former US Democrat presidential nominees Elisabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders have already suggested a new Wealth Tax on wealthy Americans. Joe Biden’s tax proposals are predicted to increase taxes for households at every income level and make the federal tax code more progressive, but he has to my knowledge rejected proposals for a Wealth Tax. On the other hand, strong forces are pushing him further to the left on the political spectrum and WT is highly supported among left progressives. California Democrats have raised two proposals to raise taxes on the “rich.” Assembly Bill 1253 and 2088 would raise the top tax rates in California – which are already the nation’s highest at 13.3% – even higher with the introduction of a 0,4% Wealth Tax.
----So, what is Wealth Tax, and what are the experiences?
The wealth tax is similar to a property tax. But instead of taxing only real estate, it covers wealth in all forms: stocks, cash, jewellery, yachts, cars, paintings, — any tangible asset that could be appraised a monetary value. By contrast, most other taxes are based on income or consumption. Wealth Tax is not a new thing in Europe, but most countries have scrapped it on grounds that it is considered to be counterproductive. Wealth taxes encourage avoidance, evasion, and capital flight. European wealth taxes generally brought in a mere 0.2% of GDP in revenues, a study from the Cato Institute noted.
Today only Belgium, Norway, Switzerland and Spain are relying on Wealth Tax. Norway is considered to enforce the toughest WT of all, still providing only 1,1% revenue of the GDP in 2017.
----WT has several adverse effects, acknowledged but ignored by the Norwegian political majority. I will briefly touch a few of them.
Political support for WT is gathered on claims that WT targets only the rich. There is no common definition of “rich” in the western world, but the presidential campaigns from the US democratic campaigners suggest a WT threshold on USD 32 mill or higher. According to polling by YouGov, 61% of the UK public will support a wealth tax for individuals with assets worth more than £750 000.
On the other side of the scale, the Norwegian tax system defines “rich” on a net worth of only USD 164 000. Hence, 29% of Norway’s full-time wagers pay WT and the number grows steadily by escalating property values.
The stark fact, although no exact numbers have been presented, is that a great number of (the few) extremely wealthy Norwegians have fled the country. Assisted by sharp lawyers they bring family, jobs, businesses, and assets. This is why the most wealthy and productive Norwegian, no 141 on Forbes 2020, is living in London. Good for UK, but bad for Norway. Furthermore, WT effectively targets small business owners, homeowners, and any other person or family saving for a college fund, retirement or just for a rainy day. WT is blind to liquidity and income. This creates a tremendous and unsustainable problem to taxpayers with “much assets and little cash”.
Somebody has to be on the other side.
George Goodman, aka Adam
Smith. The Money Game. Why Are The Little People Always Wrong?
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.Coronavirus: Oxford University vaccine trial paused after participant falls ill
·
5 hours ago
AstraZeneca described it as a "routine" pause in
the case of "an unexplained illness". The outcome of vaccine trials is being closely watched around the world.
The AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine is seen as a strong contender among dozens being developed globally.
Hopes have been high that the vaccine might be one of the first to come on the market, following successful phase 1 and 2 testing.
Its move to Phase 3 testing in recent weeks has involved some 30,000 participants in the US as well as in the UK, Brazil and South Africa. Phase 3 trials in vaccines often involve thousands of participants and can last several years.
All international trial sites have now been put on pause while an independent investigation reviews the safety data before regulators decide whether the trial can restart, the BBC's Medical Editor Fergus Walsh reports.
"In large trials, illnesses will happen by chance but must be independently reviewed to check this carefully", an Oxford University spokesperson said.
This is the second time the Oxford coronavirus vaccine trial has been put on hold, our correspondent notes. Such events are routine in major trials, and happen any time a volunteer is admitted to hospital when the cause of their illness is not immediately apparent.
It is thought the trials could resume in a matter of days.
Stat News, the health website which first broke the story, said details of the UK participant's adverse reaction were not immediately known, but quoted a source as saying they were expected to recover.
US President Donald Trump has said he wants a vaccine available in the US before 3 November's election, but his comments have raised fears that politics may be prioritised over safety in the rush for a vaccine.
On Tuesday, a group of nine Covid-19 vaccine developers sought to reassure the public by announcing a "historic pledge" to uphold scientific and ethical standards in the search for a vaccine.
AstraZeneca is among the nine firms who signed up to the pledge to only apply for regulatory approval after vaccines have gone through three phases of clinical study.
Industry giants Johnson & Johnson, BioNTech, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Merk, Moderna, Sanofi and Novavax are the other signatories.
They pledged to "always make the safety and well-being of vaccinated individuals our top priority".
The World Health Organization (WHO) says nearly 180 vaccine candidates are being tested around the world but none has yet completed clinical trials.
More
New Covid-19 Vaccine From Oxford Begins Early-Stage Human Trials
By Stephanie Baker
September 8, 2020, 8:00 AM GMT+1
A new experimental Covid-19 vaccine originating from the
University of Oxford has begun human trials in Australia in partnership with
the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer.The shot was devised by SpyBiotech, a U.K. company spun out of Oxford in 2017 by researchers who worked alongside Adrian Hill and Sarah Gilbert at the university’s Jenner Institute. The institute has one of the most advanced Covid-19 shots currently in final-stage trials in partnership with AstraZeneca Plc.
SpyBiotech’s experimental shot, one of several dozen vaccines in human trials around the world, has begun going into volunteers in a phase I/II trial in Australia run by the Serum Institute, which will eventually enroll several hundred participants, said Sumi Biswas, the company’s chief executive officer and a professor at Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Medicine.
The vaccine uses a virus-like particle from the Hepatitis B antigen as a carrier, employing the company’s proprietary SpyCatcher/SpyTag “superglue” technology to attach the coronavirus spike protein to induce an immune response. The virus-like-particle has been used for decades in a licensed vaccine against Hepatitis B. SpyBiotech’s technology allows antigens to be bonded to virus-like-particles in a way that enhances stability and effectiveness, Biswas said in an interview.
Read more: Crucial Results for Promising Covid Vaccines Are Due in Weeks
“It is a bacterial superglue technology which allows you to attach antigens onto different vaccine delivery platforms,” she said. “Covid has definitely accelerated the development of our company’s platform.”
Biswas got her Ph.D. from Oxford and worked for years at the Jenner Institute on developing a malaria vaccine. She remains a Jenner investigator.
SpyBiotech has an exclusive licensing agreement with the Serum Institute for the vaccine. The institute reached a licensing deal with AstraZeneca earlier this year to produce 1 billion doses of the Oxford shot developed by Gilbert.
SpyBiotech has raised 15 million pounds ($19.8 million) in funding from investors including GV (formerly Google Ventures) and Oxford Sciences Innovation.
Scientists Cast Doubt on Results From Russian Covid Vaccine
Eric
Pfanner and Stepan Kravchenko
(Bloomberg) -- A group of international scientists
questioned results from a study of Russia’s fast-moving coronavirus vaccine
that were published in the Lancet medical journal, saying some of the findings
appeared improbable.The researchers flagged concerns over seemingly identical levels of antibodies in a number of study participants who were inoculated with the experimental vaccine. This and other patterns in the data present “several different points of concern,” according to an open letter written by Temple University professor Enrico Bucci and signed by more than a dozen other scientists.
The Lancet published results of the early-stage trial last week, offering the first look at the Russian study to be vetted by outside experts. A move by the government to approve the shot for use based on the initial results had drawn widespread skepticism, since vaccines aren’t normally cleared before broad assessments of their efficacy and safety.
The Lancet said it encourages debate on papers that it’s published.
“We have shared the letter directly with the authors and encouraged them
to engage in the scientific discussion,” the journal said in a statement.
The Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, which
is developing the vaccine, told the news portal Meduza that there were no
errors in the study.
Morehttps://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/scientists-cast-doubt-on-results-from-russian-covid-vaccine/ar-BB18PkOG?ocid=uxbndlbing
World must be better prepared for next pandemic, WHO says
Published Tue, Sep 8 20204:04 AM EDT
The head of the World Health Organisation has called on
countries to invest in their public health systems, as he stressed that the
world must be better prepared for the next pandemic.“This will not be the last pandemic,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference Monday, “but when the next pandemic comes, the world must be ready, more ready than it was this time.”
He said too many countries had neglected their basic public health systems in recent years and called on governments to “invest in public health as an investment in a healthier and safer future.”
“Public health is the foundation of social, economic and political stability. That means investing in population-based services for preventing, detecting and responding to diseases,” he said. “I call on all countries to invest in public health, and especially primary health care.”
Publishing its latest weekly statistics Monday, the WHO said that, cumulatively, nearly 27 million Covid-19 cases and 900,000 deaths had been reported to the organization to date. A tally by Johns Hopkins University puts the number of coronavirus cases to date at 27.3 million and the number of deaths at 892,714.
Over 1.8 million new cases and 37,000 new deaths were reported during the week ending Sept. 6, the WHO said Monday, marking a 5% increase in the number of cases and a 2% decrease in the number of deaths compared to the week before.
The WHO said the Southeast Asia region continued to show the highest increase in new coronavirus cases in the past week, compared to the previous week, with over 600,000 new cases reported.
More
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
KoreaGraph to test graphene li-ion batteries for fast charging electronics
Posted: Sep 06, 2020 by Roni Peleg
KoreaGraph,
A Seoul-based graphene producer and applications developer, has announced that
it is developing and testing graphene infused
lithium-ion batteries for fast charging electronic applications.KoreaGraph has reportedly tested a variety of metals to provide suitable conductivity for fast charging applications but after numerous testing, graphene was found to be the safest material with an exceptionally high electric and thermal conductivity.
KoreaGraph’s Chief Development Officer commented on the graphene module testing saying “After many, many months of research, the current li-ion battery technology is restricted by recharging time which we plan to improve by the addition of graphene properties. Our analysts believe that the certain characteristics graphene possess would significantly improve the performance of lithium-ion battery technology and graphene will play a part in the future of Li-ion battery applications.”
KoreaGraph’s Chief Development Officer also added “With the foundations
and the technology team we have in place, KoreaGraph is uniquely positioned to
develop graphene infused Li-ion batteries. We have expertise in graphene and
lithium-ion battery technology and we are working with high purity Lithium-ion
anode battery powder and we have a supply for both graphene and anode powder
fabrication processes. KoreaGraph’s aim is to develop battery technology that
can store more capacity and deliver more power at lower cost.”
"Rule
No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1."
Warren
Buffett.
US Politics Betting Odds
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 28,430 Up. NASDAQ: 11,775 Up. SP500:
3,500 Up.
The NASDAQ
remained up. The DJIA and SP500 turned up in July. With stock mania running
fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, especially
tech stock mania in the NASDAQ, the indicators are essentially worthless after
all these years. I will discontinue this section at the end of the month.
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