Tuesday, 1 September 2020

The Great School Return Experiment Starts.


Baltic Dry Index. 1488  Fri.  Brent Crude 45.75
Spot Gold 1987

Coronavirus Cases 01/9/20 World 25,552,268
Deaths 859,200


Joseph J. Cassano, a former A.I.G. executive, August 2007, on Credit Default Swaps that wiped out A.I.G in 2008.

As most schools across Europe return today, the Great Gamble/Experiment starts. Will there be a massive surge in new Covid-19 cases?

No one knows, of course, so the European media and teaching unions are milking fear and concern for all they can. All across Europe and the UK the extreme left wing media and unions are out to de-legitimise governments. We will only have to wait a few days to find out.

In stock casino news, US markets were busy absorbing the changes to the make up of the DJIA.

Asian casinos were pondering on the latest developments in the rapidly developing new cold war between the USA and China.  How long before one of them stages an “incident?”

Asian stocks edge up after strong China manufacturing survey

September 1, 2020 / 1:23 AM
SYDNEY/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian stocks edged higher on Tuesday after strong readings on China’s vast manufacturing sector offset the weak lead from a softer Wall Street session.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2%, to regain some ground it had lost on Monday.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong traded 0.18% higher while the Shanghai Composite also recovered early losses to stand 0.1% higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 erased early losses to trade flat. 

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) showed China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest clip in nearly a decade in August, bolstered by the first increase in new export orders this year.

“What we are seeing here is the slow but choppy export recovery that is taking a bit longer than maybe some market participants thought it would - and that’s because markets remain largely out of sync,” said Daniel Gerard, senior multi asset strategist at State Street Global Markets, based in Singapore.

“September is also going to be a choppy recovery, and until we get closer to more news about a vaccine it’s going to remain that way.”

Taiwan stocks gained 0.5% after the United States said on Monday it was establishing a new bilateral economic dialogue with the country, an initiative it said was designed to support Taipei.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was an outlier, declining 2.4% to four-week lows on rising diplomatic tensions between Canberra and Beijing.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 ended in the red overnight, while the Nasdaq rose solidly.

The S&P gained more than 7% for the month to notch its best August since 1986 in what is traditionally a softer month for stock performance.

Wall Street declines overnight were mostly caused by month-end portfolio rebalancing “rather than a new trend in equities,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB Market Research in Sydney.
More

U.S. increases support for Taiwan, says to counter rising China pressure

August 31, 2020 / 10:34 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States said on Monday it was establishing a new bilateral economic dialogue with Taiwan, an initiative it said was aimed at strengthening ties with Taipei and supporting it in the face of increasing pressure from Beijing.

Washington also said it had declassified six Reagan-era security assurances given to Taiwan, a move analysts said appeared intended to show further support for Taipei. 

The announcements come at a time of increasing Chinese threats towards Taiwan, and when relations between Washington and Beijing have sunk to their lowest level in decades. U.S. President Donald Trump is campaigning for re-election in November with a tough approach to China among his key foreign policy platforms.

The State Department’s top diplomat for East Asia, David Stilwell, told a virtual forum hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation the latest U.S. moves were not a policy shift, but part of a set of “significant adjustments” within Washington’s longstanding “one-China” policy.

Washington felt compelled to make these given the “increasing threat posed by Beijing to peace and stability” in a vitally important region and Beijing’s attempts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically while subjecting it to military threats.

“We will continue to help Taipei resist the Chinese Communist Party’s campaign to pressure, intimidate, and marginalize Taiwan,” Stilwell said.

Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry expressed thanks for the show of support at a time when it said China was using military intimidation to damage peace and stability near Taiwan, and said it would continue to strengthen its defence capabilities.

The United States, like most countries, has official relations with Beijing, but not Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing as Chinese territory. However, Washington is bound by law to help Taiwan defend itself and is its main arms supplier.
More

China detains Australian anchor for state-run English language network

The Chinese government has detained an Australian anchor for Beijing's English-language news network CGTN, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

"The Australian Government has been informed that an Australian citizen, Ms. Cheng Lei, has been detained in China," Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said in a statement. Cheng is currently detained in Beijing and has been allowed to speak via video conference to Australian diplomats, Payne added.

"Formal notification was received on 14th of August from Chinese authorities of her detention,” Payne said in the statement. “Australian officials had an initial consular visit with Ms. Cheng at a detention facility via video link on 27th of August and will continue to provide assistance and support to her and her family.”

Cheng has been detained under “residential surveillance at a designated location,” the television network reported. In this form of detention, officials can imprison and question suspects for up to six months without legal representation before formally arresting or charging them, the network noted.

Friends of Cheng said she had not replied to social media messages in several weeks, and her biographical page on the CGTN website was removed.

---- Cheng has two young children who are staying with family in Melbourne, according to the network. She has worked in China since 2001 and has worked for CGTN for eight years.

Cheng’s detention comes more than a year after the government detained another Australian citizen, writer and former Chinese government employee Yang Hengjun. Yang, the subject of an espionage investigation, has been kept from his lawyers since January 2019.

Hong Kong launches mass Covid-19 tests, undermined by mistrust of China

Issued on:
Hong Kong launched a mass coronavirus testing scheme on Tuesday, but calls for millions to take up the offer have been undermined by deep distrust of the government following China's crushing of the city's democracy movement.

The voluntary tests are part of an attempt to stamp out a third wave of infections that began in late June and saw the densely populated city reimpose economically painful social distancing measures.

But the programme has been hampered by a limited response due to the involvement of mainland Chinese testing firms and doctors -- and swirling public fears of the harvesting of data and DNA as Beijing cracks down on calls for democratic reform.

Since registration began on Saturday, 510,000 people have signed up to take the free tests -- around seven percent of the city's 7.5 million population.

But health experts advising the government have said as many as five million people might need to be tested for the scheme to comprehensively uncover hidden transmissions and end the current wave.

Hong Kong has recorded just over 4,800 infections since the virus first hit the city in late January but about 75 percent of those cases were detected since the start of July.

Tests will run for between a week and two weeks depending on public demand, with numbers limited each day to reduce the risk of infection.
More

In other news, this doesn’t look like a “V” shaped recovery to me.

Japan's second-quarter capex falls most in decade on pandemic blow

September 1, 2020 / 1:02 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese firms slashed spending on plant and equipment by the most in a decade in the second quarter, the government said on Tuesday, suggesting the economy will take a protracted period to fully rebound from the coronavirus-induced slump.

Separate private-sector data showed that factory activity in August shrank at the slowest pace in six months, reducing some pressure on policymakers to act more aggressively to prevent a deeper recession. Other official data pointed to worsening labour market conditions.

The fall in spending comes after the government called a state of emergency early in the second quarter in a bid to tackle the health crisis, which also led to sharp declines in corporate profits and sales in the quarter.

Capital spending shed 11.3% in April-June year-on-year, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2010, as the COVID-19 crisis hit investments by the manufacturing as well as service sector, Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed on Tuesday.

“The deceleration in capital spending is likely to become stronger in the second half of the fiscal year,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

---- The negative data will be used to calculate revised second-quarter gross domestic figures (GDP) due on Sept. 8 of the initial estimate for a 27.8% decline - with some economists expecting a downward revision based on Tuesday’s data.

While analysts expect the economy to fare better in the current quarter after the state of emergency was ended in late May, many forecast any rebound to be modest and a recovery to take years.
More

 

Parking Garages Idle as Car Owners Pull Out of New York City

Former monthly customers ‘are calling and canceling permanently saying they are leaving the city’

Aug. 31, 2020 7:52 am ET
Manhattan parking-garage operators say they have lost thousands of monthly customers as many residents packed up their cars and moved out of New York City during the new coronavirus pandemic.

“People are calling and canceling permanently saying they are leaving the city,” said Rafael Llopiz, president of the Metropolitan Parking Association, whose members often charge upward of $500 a month for a spot.

Mr. Llopiz said almost all of the parking-association members’ monthly business is residential. Of the 82,000 monthly customers who usually patronize the trade group’s garages, Mr. Llopiz said only 33,000 spaces were filled by mid-August.

Mr. Llopiz said monthly business is usually down about 5% in August. This August it is down 60%.

Many car owners drove out of the city after the pandemic struck New York in March to stay with family or at second or rented homes. Now, with many school parents opting for remote learning and employers delaying the return to the office until the new year, some residents have decided to remain out of the city.
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Finally, Beirut. With winter coming, will chaotic Lebanon get any outside help in time or at all?

Beirut port's explosions cause up to 4.6 bln USD in physical damage: World Bank

Source: Xinhua| 2020-08-31 19:56:03
BEIRUT, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) -- The World Bank estimates the value of physical damage caused by the explosions that rocked Beirut's port on Aug. 4 at between 3.8 billion U.S. dollars and 4.6 billion dollars.

"The country will need international aid and private investment to recover," according to an initial assessment led by the World Bank, in cooperation with the United Nations and the European Union in Lebanon.

Around 190 people were killed and thousands were injured when explosive material stored at Beirut's port detonated on Aug. 4, destroying thousands of buildings in the city.

In addition to the damage caused to homes, hospitals, schools, and streets, the explosions forced many businesses to close, contributing to a loss of economic activity estimated at between 2.9 billion dollars and 3.5 billion dollars.

The World Bank noted that housing, transport and cultural assets are among the sectors worst affected.

"The disaster will not only exacerbate the contraction in economic activity, but also worsen poverty rates, which were already at 45 percent of the population just prior to the explosion," the World Bank said on Monday.

It added that the "implementation of a credible reform agenda will be key to accessing international development assistance and unlock external and private sector sources of financing." Enditem

Half of Lebanese at risk of failing to access basic food: UN agency

Source: Xinhua| 2020-08-30 18:21:56
BEIRUT, Aug. 30 (Xinhua) -- More than half of Lebanon's population are at risk of failing to access basic food needs by the year's end, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) reported on Sunday.

ESCWA attributes food shortage to the fact that Lebanon relies heavily on food imports to meet the needs of its population amid the massive explosions that rocked Beirut's port, the country's main logistical point for the entry of goods.

Also, ESCWA noted that the Lebanese pound depreciated 78 percent and poverty and unemployment rates increased sharply.

ESCWA Executive Secretary Rola Dashti called on the Lebanese government to prioritize the rebuilding of silos at the Beirut Port as a food security national asset, and rehabilitate the central drug warehouse and ensure continuous supply of essential medicines and vaccines for the most vulnerable.

"Immediate measures should be taken to prevent a food crisis, such as intensifying food price monitoring, ensuring ceiling shelf price and encouraging direct sales from local producers to consumers," Dashti added. Enditem

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Historical references


Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Hong Kong’s Lam Urges Tests; India Economy Shrinks: Virus Update

Bloomberg News
Updated on September 1, 2020, 5:47 AM GMT+1
Hong Kong’s chief executive urged residents to participate in a controversial mass testing program for coronavirus, trying to overcome suspicions the effort would be used to harvest people’s DNA for monitoring purposes.

India’s gross domestic product shrank by almost 24% last quarter as the nation fast becomes the new virus epicenter. Experts predict India soon will pass Brazil -- and, ultimately, the U.S. -- as home to the worst outbreak globally. It currently has 3.62 million cases, with 64,469 deaths.

Key Developments:
·  Global Tracker: Cases surpass 25.4 million; deaths approach 849,400
·  Obese and overweight people are at high risk of suffering severe cases of Covid-19
·  Airline Bond Binge Hits Record as Coronavirus Woes Deepen: Chart
·  Japan’s Corporates Post Worst Profit Decline Since 2009
More

Back to school for students across Europe amid worries over Covid spike

Issued on:
French pupils go back to school Tuesday as schools across Europe open their doors to greet returning pupils this month, nearly six months after the coronavirus outbreak forced them to close and despite rising infection rates across the continent. 

Many teachers and parents are worried the reopening of schools will accelerate the spread of Covid-19, but governments have insisted it should go ahead.

French children return to school on Tuesday, after a two-month-long summer break that followed two weeks of obligatory schooling just before the holidays.

Teachers and pupils between 11 and 18 will be required to wear masks both indoors and outdoors. Pupils in Belgium will also return to school on Tuesday, while those in Germany went back last month.

Masks will also be compulsory in Greece, where children are expected to return to school next Monday with a maximum of 25 children per class.

In England and Wales -- where children return to school this week after a six-month closure -- the government initially said masks in schools would not be necessary, but reversed its policy last Wednesday.

The new guidance advises secondary school students aged 11 to 18 and staff to wear face coverings in corridors and communal areas, in places with local virus restrictions.

The Spanish government has insisted all children over the age of six must wear masks at all times and wash their hands at least five times a day.

Children should maintain a distance of 1.5 metres (5 feet) from each other, and regional governments have hired additional teachers to reduce class sizes.

But many Spanish teachers and parents feel the measures are not enough, or have been adopted too close to the start of classes to be properly implemented.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/20200901-back-to-school-for-students-across-europe-amid-worries-over-covid-spike

Covid-19 Antibody Race Heats Up

By Suzi Ring  August 31, 2020, 1:00 PM GMT+1
·         Therapy could be available in first half of 2021, partners say
·         AstraZeneca also began antibody treatment tests this month

The race to find successful antibody treatments against Covid-19 is heating up as GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Vir Biotechnology Inc. start human trials to evaluate a potential drug that could be available as soon as the first half of next year.

The therapy is advancing directly to the middle and final stages of clinical tests with a study that began last week, the companies said in a statement Monday. The trials will involve 1,300 high-risk patients from across the globe and focus on preventing hospitalization for people with early or mild coronavirus symptoms, with initial results possible before year-end.

Glaxo and Vir are among a number of drugmakers seeking to fight, or even prevent, Covid-19 with monoclonal antibodies, which aim to mimic the body’s natural immune response. Such treatments could provide a short-term solution before a vaccine becomes available, and may also be necessary for older or more vulnerable people who don’t respond as well to a shot.

AstraZeneca Plc also said last week it had started human trials for a combination of two antibodies, while early data from a pair of antibodies being tested by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. are due in September. Eli Lilly & Co. started final-stage trials for its drug in U.S. nursing homes this month.

A successful treatment could bypass the need for the body to produce its own antibodies, which is especially important in the absence of an effective vaccine, said Hal Barron, Glaxo’s head of research. The companies are also planning further studies looking at preventing infection and treating more seriously ill hospitalized patients.

“A vaccine is incredibly important for the impact it can have at scale,” Barron said in an interview. “But we do believe this monoclonal antibody in particular is unique and that the class in general will potentially play a very important role in this pandemic.”

Glaxo and Vir, which signed a $250 million Covid-19 pact in April, are also looking at potential vaccines for the disease, as well as treatments and shots for other coronaviruses. A mid-stage trial for a second antibody treatment that could also act as a prophylactic T cell vaccine is due to start later this year.

“The need for these antibodies is likely to be so large that no one company will be able to provide it all,” George Scangos, Vir’s chief executive officer, said in an interview.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-31/covid-19-antibody-race-is-on-as-glaxo-and-vir-start-key-study?srnd=premium-europe

COVID-19 cases rise in Asia-Pacific as India's tally surpasses 3.6 mln

Source: Xinhua| 2020-08-31 20:00:09
HONG KONG, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) -- Asia-Pacific countries are still facing a growing pandemic of the COVID-19 as India reported over 70,000 daily cases for five consecutive days.
India's tally rose to 3,621,245, as the death toll rose to 64,469, showed the latest data released by the health ministry.

As many as 78,512 new cases and 971 deaths were recorded over the past 24 hours across the country.

India will enter the Unlock 4 with effect from Tuesday. Fresh guidelines to be followed during Unlock 4 were issued on Saturday.

According to the new guidelines announced, schools will remain shut through September, though students of 9-12 grades have been allowed to approach their teachers at schools for guidance.

Metro Rail services would be allowed to start from Sept. 7 in a phased manner, and public functions, or other congregations, would be allowed with a ceiling of 100 persons from Sept. 21.

The number of confirmed cases in the Philippines surged to 220,819 after the country's Department of Health (DOH) reported 3,446 new daily cases on Monday.

The DOH said that the number of recoveries surged to 157,562 after it reported 165 more patients have survived the disease.

The DOH added that 38 more patients have died from the disease, bringing the death toll to 3,558.

Five regions or provinces remain among the worst-hit places in the whole country, with Metro Manila at the top with daily confirmed cases reported on Monday at 1,900.

Indonesia reported 2,743 new cases, bringing the total number of the cases in the country to 174,796, with the death toll adding by 74 to 7,417, the country's health ministry said on Monday.

According to the ministry, 1,774 more people were discharged from hospitals, bringing the total number of recovered patients to 125,959.

Bangladesh reported more than 2,100 new COVID-19 cases and 33 new deaths on Monday, making the tally at nearly 313,000 and total deaths at 4,281, the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) said.

According to the figure reported by the DGHS under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country reached 312,996 including 2,174 new cases on Monday.

South Korea reported 248 more cases as of 12:00 a.m. Monday local time compared to 24 hours ago, raising the total number of infections to 19,947.

The number of confirmed cases for the past 18 days reached 5,177 owing to infections in Seoul and its surrounding Gyeonggi province.
More

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-08/31/c_139331766.htm

Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

The very concept of objective truth is fading out of the world. Lies will pass into history.

George Orwell.


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Cosmic rays can destabilize quantum computers, MIT study warns

Michael Irving  August 30, 2020
Quantum computers are advancing at an exciting pace, but unfortunately this progress may soon stall. Cosmic rays streaming down to Earth could interfere with the integrity of the information in these quantum computers, and now an MIT team has shown just how vulnerable they are and what it might take to protect them.

In traditional computers, information is represented in “bits” as either a zero or a one. But thanks to the spooky rules of quantum physics, the bits in quantum computers (called qubits) are able to exist in a superposition of both states at once. That means they could perform many operations in parallel, making them vastly more powerful than existing computer systems.

But there’s a major hurdle to making practical quantum computers. Qubits have fairly low coherence times, which refers to how long they can remain in this superposition state. That’s because they’re sensitive to outside interference like heat, magnetic and electric fields, or even the low-level radiation that surrounds us all the time.

Some of the worst offenders come from space. Cosmic rays and the cascade of secondary particles they create are constantly raining down on us, and while we personally might not notice them they can wreak havoc on electronics.

In a new study, researchers at MIT, Lincoln Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have now quantified just how much of a problem cosmic rays might be for quantum computers.

In experiments, the researchers placed disks of irradiated copper next to superconducting qubits to measure the effects of the radiation. The experiments were conducted inside a dilution refrigerator, minimizing other interference by cooling the environment down to around 200 times colder than the vacuum of space. A second irradiated copper disk was studied outside the fridge to measure how much radiation the quantum system was being exposed to.

Using this setup and other simulations, the team found that the qubit coherence time would be limited to around four milliseconds. Further experiments confirmed this figure, by placing or removing a radiation shield between the copper disks and the qubits. The shield did help, but it’s not the most practical of solutions – it was a two-ton wall of lead bricks.

The experiment shows that to get the most out of quantum computers, we’ll need to build them with adequate shielding. That could mean moving them deep underground, like neutrino-hunting experiments that also need protection from cosmic rays. But that might not be the only solution, the team says.
More
https://newatlas.com/quantum-computing/quantum-computers-cosmic-rays-interference/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=f969a06cfd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_08_31_07_33&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-f969a06cfd-90625829

US Politics Betting Odds

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 28,654 -1 Up. NASDAQ: 11,696 +243 Up. SP500: 3,508 +89 Up.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The DJIA and SP500 have turned up. With stock mania running fueled by trillions of central bankster new fiat money programs, especially tech stock mania in the NASDAQ, the indicators are essentially worthless after all these years.

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