Baltic Dry Index. 655 -06 Brent Crude 21.00
Spot Gold 1711
Coronavirus Cases 29/4/20
World 3,131,728
Deaths 217,661
"We pay the debts of the
last generation, by issuing bonds payable by the next generation."
Dr. Laurence J. Peter, author,
The Peter Principal.
It is day one of
the two day new style Federal Reserve “meeting.” Well they’re distance virtual meeting
via something like Cisco’s Webex meetings. I doubt they’ll be using the very
hackable Zoom.
With nothing much expected
from the Fed today, everything hangs on the usual press conference after tomorrow’s
meeting. What will Chairman Powell say to boost the stock market and President
Trump’s re-election campaign? Can he get the DJIA back up to 30,000 by early
November? Dow 30,000 or bust!
Below, another day
older and deeper in massive debt.
Asia shares extend gains as economies slowly re-open, oil rallies
April 29, 2020 /
1:23 AM
SYDNEY/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian shares
rose for a third session on the trot on Wednesday as investors took heart from
easing coronavirus lockdowns in some parts of the world while oil prices jumped
on hopes demand will pick up.
Positive news around potential treatments for the infection as well as progress in developing a vaccine have also boosted sentiment recently.
Moreover, investors have regained some confidence as parts of the United States, Europe and Australia are gradually easing restrictions while New Zealand this week allowed some businesses to open.
These factors helped lift MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS by 0.9% on Wednesday, having rallied 3.3% already this week.
Japan’s markets were closed for a public holiday.
Australian shares rose 1.2% led by energy and resources firms while South Korea .KS11 added 1.2%.
Chinese markets opened in the black with the blue-chip index .CSI300 up 0.6%.
All the same, analysts were circumspect about the rally.
“The recovery in global share prices from the March lows has not been accompanied by an expansion in market breadth,” said Jefferies analyst Sean Darby.
Darby said the number of stocks above their 260-day moving average was still very low across emerging market and developed market indexes while the number of stocks making new highs versus new lows is about equal.
“Unlike turning points for markets and earnings at the bottom, there is no clear evidence on how the technical picture should evolve. The current rally suggests that conviction levels are low in our view,” Darby added.
The equity gains have come even as analysts predict a sharp contraction in world growth.
Moody’s expects economies of the group of 20 advanced nations (G-20) to shrink 5.8% this year with momentum unlikely to recover to pre-coronavirus levels even in 2021.
Markets were next looking for any guidance from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is due to issue a policy statement at the close of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday.
Analysts said it was unlikely the Fed would make further major policy moves, given the scope and depth of its efforts to counter the economic damage caused by the coronavirus.
On Wall Street overnight, investors dumped tech giants despite an earnings beat from Alphabet Inc’s Google (GOOGL.O), driving all three major U.S. stock indexes into the red.
More
The Federal Reserve Is Changing What It Means to Be a Central Bank
By lending widely to businesses, states and cities, the Fed is breaking taboos about who gets money to prop up a frozen U.S. economy
By Nick Timiraos and Jon Hilsenrath April 27, 2020 11:06 am ET
The Federal Reserve is redefining central banking.
By lending widely to businesses, states and cities in its effort to insulate the U.S. economy from the coronavirus pandemic, it is breaking century-old taboos about who gets money from the central bank in a crisis, on what terms, and what risks it will take about getting that money back.
And with large-scale purchases of U.S. Treasury securities, the Federal Reserve is stretching the boundaries for what a central bank will do to finance soaring federal debt—actions that move it deeper into political decisions it usually tries to avoid.
Fed leaders don’t like doing any of this. They believe they have no better alternative.
“None of us has the luxury of choosing our challenges; fate and history provide them for us,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech this month. “Our job is to meet the tests we are presented.”
Economists project the central bank’s portfolio of bonds, loans and new programs will swell to between $8 trillion and $11 trillion from less than $4 trillion last year. In that range, the portfolio would be twice the size reached after the 2007-09 financial crisis and nearly half the value of U.S. annual economic output.
It would make its role in the economy far greater than during the Great Depression or World War II, according to Wall Street Journal calculations. The portfolio had reached $6.57 trillion by April 22.
“The Fed is being sent on a mission to places it has never been before,” says Adam Tooze, a Columbia University history professor who writes about financial crisis and war. Due to the financial and economic shocks caused by the virus, he says, central-bank officials “are being sucked into a series of entanglements that they cannot control and that they normally will not touch with a long pole, but this time felt they had to go in, and go in hard.”
Uncharted Territory
The Fed's portfolio of bonds, loans and new programs will swell to $8 trillion–$11 trillion, economists estimate.
----Among risks the Fed is taking: that some programs won’t work, that officials won’t be able to unwind them, that politicians will grow accustomed to directing the central bank to fix problems its tools aren’t designed to solve, and that public discontent about the central bank’s choices will erode its authority over time.This last risk is prominent because the Fed’s tools are better suited to helping large firms that borrow in capital markets than small ones that don’t.
“Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell,” Howard Marks, director of investment fund Oaktree Capital Management LP, said in a letter to shareholders this month, writing that “Markets work best when participants have a healthy fear of loss.” Mr. Marks in a later interview said he didn’t want to imply Mr. Powell’s actions were wrong: “The fact that something can have negative, unintended consequences, doesn’t mean it’s a mistake.”
Mr. Powell defines the government’s task from a different moral perspective. “People are undertaking these sacrifices for the common good,” he said in his speech. “We need to make them whole to the extent we have the ability.”
More
Finally, did blowing up the economy just
blow up America’s future food supply? Well almost, President Trump finally
acted to head off that future disaster. Some common sense at last.
Trump orders meat processing plants to stay open
Updated 2153 GMT (0553 HKT) April 28, 2020
Washington (CNN)President
Donald Trump signed an executive order under the Defense Production Act to
compel meat processing plants to remain open amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump
had highlighted the order during an Oval Office meeting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis that was opened up to reporters.
"We're
going to sign an executive order today, I believe, and that'll solve any
liability problems," Trump said on Tuesday.
The
President signed the order after some companies, such as Tyson Foods, were considering only keeping 20% of
their facilities open. The vast majority of processing plants could have shut
down -- which would have reduced processing capacity in the country by as much
as 80%, an official familiar with the order told CNN.
By signing the order, Trump declared these plants part of critical
infrastructure in the US.
The administration is also working with the Department of Labor on
issuing guidance about which employees who work at these meat processing
facilities should remain home, including workers who are part of populations
most vulnerable to the coronavirus.
When Trump announced the executive order, he also told reporters that
his administration was working with Tyson Foods.
Tyson Foods spokesman Gary Mickelson wouldn't comment on the order
because the company had not seen it, but said: "We can tell you our top
priority remains the safety (of) our team members and plant communities while
we work to continue fulfilling our role of feeding families across the
country."
With many Americans staying home during the coronavirus, industry
experts say demand for meat has increased. But some of the country's largest
processing plants have been forced to cease operations temporarily after
thousands of employees across the country have tested positive for the virus.
The situation has
gotten so severe, meat processing executives warned, that the US meat supply could be at risk.
Meat,
beef and pork production reached record highs in March, according to the US
Agriculture Department. But earlier this month, the United Food and Commercial
Workers International Union said at least 13 processing plants have closed over
the past two months, resulting in a 25% reduction in pork slaughter capacity and 10%
reduction in beef slaughter capacity.
More
Farmers fear USDA's $19B in coronavirus aid won't 'scratch the surface'
April 28, 2020 /
3:00 AM
EVANSVILLE, Ind., April 28 (UPI) -- As the federal government prepares
to distribute an unprecedented $19 billion in aid to farmers struggling through
the coronavirus pandemic, farm industry experts say it won't be enough.
"That $19 billion helps," said Pat Westhoff, director of the
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Minnesota.
"But if things deteriorate further, that may not even scratch the surface
for what people are going to need to get through this."
The issue is especially severe among livestock producers, Westhoff said.
That sector is facing an immediate crisis because the widespread closure of meat packing plants because of outbreaks of the virus makes it impossible for many farmers to sell all their animals.
"It's a mess," said Jim Petrik, a South Dakota rancher who raises cattle and hogs. "Almost all our local plants are out. It's going to be a bloodbath for producers."
Hog producers are losing money every day. The National Pork Producers Council on April 17 released a "conservative" estimate that hog farmers would lose a collective $5 billion in 2020.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has allocated $1.6 billion in aid for the hog industry.
The cattle and chicken industry also are in peril from the slaughterhouse closures. The National Cattlemen's Beef Association has estimated that producers will lose some $13.6 billion, a far cry from the $5.1 billion they've been allocated in direct USDA aid.
With losses quickly outpacing the promised aid, the American Farm Bureau Federation has called the federal aid "an important down payment" to bolster the rapidly deteriorating farm industry.
"More help will be needed," the organization has said.
Other farming sectors also are in crisis, industry leaders say.
Both fresh produce growers and dairy farmers are reeling from the sudden loss of the food service industry market after governors across the country closed restaurants, schools and other institutions in an effort to slow the virus' spread.
Before the virus hit, roughly half of the money Americans spent on food was from food service, according to the USDA.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/04/28/Farmers-fear-USDAs-19B-in-coronavirus-aid-wont-scratch-the-surface/3631588022663/?ls=1
"You can have your cake and eat it too."
Stan Laurel.
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing the peak of new cases, at least of the first
SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Hospitals turning to UV light to disinfect medical gear
April 28, 2020 /
5:05 PM
Supplies of personal protective equipment remain scarce across the
United States, especially the N95 respirator masks that health care workers use
to protect themselves from the new coronavirus.
To help extend the useful life of available equipment, researchers and
hospitals are turning to a long-known, if little-used, means of disinfection --
ultraviolet radiation.
"It's generally well known that UV-C radiation kills
microbes," said Bob Karlicek Jr., director of the Center for Lighting
Enabled Systems and Applications at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy,
N.Y. "What's not known is the specific quantities of UV-C radiation that
is required to fully disinfect complex equipment like N95 masks, because you
have to get the light to the inside of the mask."
Karlicek led a team that created a UV-C system designed to disinfect N95
masks. It's being tested at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City.
President Donald Trump was ridiculed last week after publicly speculating that UV light could be used to treat COVID-19 infection inside the human body.
"Supposing we hit the body with a tremendous -- whether it's ultraviolet or just very powerful light -- and I think you said that hasn't been checked, but you're going to test it," Trump said at a media briefing. "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way, and I think you said you're going to test that, too. Sounds interesting."
Experts quickly came forward to note that UV light can be harmful to humans, and that it would be impossible for ultraviolet rays to reach deep within the body to kill coronavirus in the lungs and other organs.
That's also part of the problem with using UV light to disinfect protective gear like masks, gowns and gloves, Karlicek said.
UV light disinfects by breaking down the genetic structure of coronaviruses and other microbes, he said. The virus either dies or is rendered incapable of replicating.
But that means the ultraviolet rays must directly strike the virus -- meaning every square inch of the equipment must be exposed to UV light to be properly disinfected. Any part that falls within a shadow might still carry active coronavirus, Karlicek said.
The UV rays must also be very powerful. Mere sunlight alone will not kill the coronavirus, experts say.
The Rensselaer team's solution is a conveyor system that runs N95 masks through a battery of mercury UV lights.
"That allows us to have a vertical arrangement of UV-C mercury lamps and then suspend the masks carefully on a moving framework that would go in between the lamps, so you could simultaneously irradiate masks from both sides," Karlicek said.
The system stands about 8-feet tall and about 8-feet long. The masks are hung on a series of hooks, and the speed of the conveyor belt determines how much radiation the masks receive.
More
US govt reveals details of sunlight study on virus
Issued on:
The US Department of Homeland Security revealed to AFP on Tuesday new
technical details regarding its highly anticipated study into how ultraviolet
radiation destroys the new coronavirus, saying that its experiment had
accurately mimicked natural sunlight.
A summary of the research was presented last week at the White House,
with some scientists calling for caution until a more comprehensive report was
made public.
US President Donald Trump raised eyebrows last week when he used his
daily live national press briefing to ask whether light could become a medical
treatment.
DHS official William Bryan had briefed the media that the amount of
virus on a non-porous surface shrunk by half in just two minutes when sunlight
was present, the temperature was 70-75 degrees Fahrenheit (21-24 Celsius) and
humidity was 80 percent.
The amount of virus suspended in air shrunk to half its amount in just
1.5 minutes at room temperature and 20 percent humidity, he added.
These eye-catching results surprised experts because most of the UV
light contained in natural sunlight belongs to a subtype called UVA, which
causes human skin to tan and age but has not generally been proven harmful to
viruses, David Brenner, director of the Center for Radiological Research at
Columbia University Medical Center, told AFP.
On the other hand, a part of the spectrum called UVC is particularly adept
at warping the genetic material of animal and virus cells and is widely used in
sterilizing lamps, but it is not present in sunlight because it is filtered out
by the Earth's atmosphere.
Asked for further details on the type of UV light that was used, Lloyd
Hough, a DHS scientist overseeing the test, said: "The spectrum of light
that was used was designed to approximate natural sunlight that you would
expect to see at noon at sea level at a mid-latitude location (e.g.,
mid-Atlantic, 40 degrees N) on the first day of summer.
"More specifically, it approximates the wavelengths of light
predicted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR) Tropospheric
Ultraviolet and Visible (TUV) Radiation Model for noon at 40 degrees N latitude
at sea level on June 21st in range of 280 and 400 nanometer wavelengths."
The wavelengths specified pertain only to long- and medium-wave
ultraviolet, also known as UVA and UVB -- the UV components of sunlight that
penetrate the atmosphere -- and not UVC.
- Paper coming soon -
A DHS spokesman added that the test -- which was conducted at the
National Biodefense Analysis and Countermeasures Center in Maryland -- was
carried out on droplets of simulated saliva on a stainless steel surface.
Brenner, who is himself performing research into another area of the UV
spectrum called far-UVC, which kills microbes without penetrating human skin,
said the DHS findings did not comport with previous research.
"There is a peer-reviewed paper in the literature from the FDA
(Food and Drug Administration) showing the earlier SARS-CoV virus did not
respond to UVA light (though it did respond to UVC light)," he said,
adding it is "reasonable to assume that all coronaviruses respond roughly
the same way to light."
The results as presented were "straining credulity," he added.
But a DHS spokesman said that study would soon be submitted for peer
review and published in scientific journals.
More
European Nation With Fewest Virus Deaths Proves Speed Is Key
By Radoslav Tomek
April 28, 2020, 4:00 AM GMT+1
As the coronavirus continues to kill thousands of people a day across
Europe, one country stands out for keeping its death toll low.
Slovakia, a landlocked country of 5.5 million, closed its schools, shops
and borders earlier than any other country after Italy. Meanwhile, politicians
and TV anchors embraced face masks even before the government made them
mandatory.
The measures bore fruit: Six weeks after the first reported infection,
Slovakia has just 18 fatalities and is bottom of the European list of deaths
per capita, according to data compiled by John Hopkins University as of April
26.
“Speed
is of the essence,” Eva Schernhammer, head of the epidemiology department in
Medical University in Vienna, said by phone. “It would be ideal to contain the
epidemic at a stage when you can trace back contacts of every single new case.
In hindsight, Slovakia did the right thing.”
The head of the Bratislava region, Juraj Droba, closed schools two days
after the first case was reported, a week before the rest of the country,
because he “could see what was happening in Italy.” The region is home to more
than 10% of the country’s population.
Slovak Chief Health Inspector Jan Mikas also ordered police to stop a
convoy of skiers returning from Austria and put them into supervised
quarantine. About 60 people tested positive.
More
Virus Likely to Keep Coming Back Each Year, Say Top Chinese Scientists
April 28, 2020, 4:00 AM GMT+1
Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be
eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen
will likely return in waves like the flu.It’s unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.
With SARS, those infected became seriously ill. Once they were quarantined from others, the virus stopped spreading. In contrast, China is still finding dozens of asymptomatic cases of the coronavirus every day despite bringing its epidemic under control.
“This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,” said Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China’s top medial research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.
A consensus is forming among top researchers and governments worldwide that the virus is unlikely to be eliminated, despite costly lockdowns that have brought much of the global economy to a halt. Some public health experts are calling for the virus to be allowed to spread in a controlled way through younger populations like India’s, while countries like Sweden have opted out of strict lockdowns.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Optimal weather for solar power sees UK hit longest coal-free period since pre-industrial times
A press release sent out this morning by the Solar Trade Association
states coal power has been offline since the morning of 10th April
Tuesday 28 April 2020
A press release sent out this morning by the Solar Trade Association (STA) states “maximised levels of solar generation” have meant coal power has been offline since the morning of 10th April, with more than a terawatt hour of solar power being generated in that period – this is enough energy to drive around 6.7 billion kilometres in a Nissan Leaf.
Solar energy generated more than 11% of UK electricity demand in the last week and set both a new daily peak generation record of 9.68GW at 12:30 on 20th April, as well as a weekly generation record of 485.41GWh.
The STA notes clear skies and cool temperatures generally provide the optimal conditions for solar efficiency.
CEO Chris Hewett said: “Solar is playing a critical role in delivering a fossil-free grid and cleaner, cheaper power to Britain. As we look towards a net zero future, solar will become an increasingly greater part of the energy mix, tackling high power prices, climate change, and biodiversity loss.
“With the government beginning to consider how best to kick-start the economy following the Covid-19 crisis, it has a golden opportunity to place renewables at the heart of its recovery package. Solar in particular can provide a glut of quality green jobs and growth at short notice, with your average solar park able to be built in less than six months, and home installation in less than a day. The industry is ready to help drive the revival.”
"I never think of the future. It comes soon enough."
Albert Einstein.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 21,917 +45 Down. NASDAQ: 7,700 +149 Down.
SP500: 2,585 +38 Down.
The NASDAQ and S&P have
joined the DJIA in down. All three monthly slow indexes have collapsed.
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