Baltic Dry Index. 626 +78 Brent Crude 22.74 Spot Gold 1588
Covid-19 Pandemic
underway, according to the WHO, at long last!
Coronavirus Cases 01/4/20
World 882,715 Deaths 44,176 (Maybe.)
As Deutsche Bank
notes above, there may be light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel, albeit
not for Democrat run New York City any time soon.
Since mid-January
I have kept a spreadsheet of published global daily new cases and new deaths,
and while none of the figures are “accurate,” everyone counts differently and
publishes at different times of day, I take the numbers on a probability basis.
On that basis,
there’s a chance that cases (outside of the USA) peaked on March 26, with new
deaths peaking on the 29th.
But longer data is needed, probably out to mid-month. However, like DB’s
analysts, just possibly something is changing in the coronavirus crisis.
Spring?
Sadly, any relief
will be to late to avert our self-inflicted global shut down, and with it our arriving
new recession or probably depression.
Below, why most
stocks still have further to fall.
Stocks under pressure after biggest quarterly drop since 2008
April 1, 2020 /
1:28 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian shares faced
another leg lower on Wednesday as the coronavirus sharply slows global growth,
leading a gauge of world stocks to post its biggest quarterly decline in more
than a decade and oil prices to trade near lows last seen in 2002.
Shares on Wall Street tumbled on Tuesday, with the Dow registering its biggest quarterly fall since 1987 and the S&P 500 its steepest quarterly drop since a decade ago on growing evidence of the massive downturn the pandemic will incur.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 traded 1% lower in after-hours trade, while Asian futures suggested the rout would continue.
FTSE China A50 futures SFCc1 in Singapore were down 0.85% and Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 1.86% in early trade.
The first-quarter decline was the biggest on record for the S&P 500 as consumers hunkered down at home, leading businesses to announce massive staff furloughs and to shut temporarily.
U.S. economic activity is likely to be “very bad” and the unemployment rate could rise above 10% because of efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester told CNBC.
The United States marked 700 deaths in a single day from COVID-19 for the first time on Tuesday, lifting total U.S. fatalities from the disease to more than 3,700.
---- The number of coronavirus infections globally headed toward 800,000. Deutsche Bank analysts noted, however, that for two consecutive days the global growth in new cases was below 10%, having exceeded that rate for most of the past two weeks.
More
Japan's factory activity shrinks at fastest pace since 2009, new orders slump: PMI
April 1, 2020 /
1:54 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s factory activity
contracted at the fastest pace in about a decade in March, as the world’s
third-largest economy struggled with a severe downturn in overseas and domestic
demand due to the coronavirus crisis.
The manufacturing slowdown offers the latest evidence of the pain
business and the economy are feeling from the pandemic and highlights the
challenges policymakers face.
The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 44.8 from a final 47.8 in February, its
lowest since April 2009.
“The likelihood of the manufacturing recession deepening in the coming
months is high,” said Joe Hayes, economist at IHS Markit, which compiled the
survey.
“Overall, the cascading impact of COVID-19 on the global economy is
diminishing the chances of a V-shaped recovery.”
The PMI survey showed output and new orders fell to levels not seen
since April 2011 - the month after an earthquake and tsunami ravaged Japan -
with some companies reporting outright production halts.
New export orders fell sharply amid reports of severe economic distress
among key trading partners in China and other parts of Asia.
Manufacturers reported the most negative outlook for output over the
next 12 months since IHS Markit started tracking the future outlook in July
2012.
Big manufacturers turned pessimistic for the first time in seven years
in the three months to March, a central bank survey showed earlier on
Wednesday, further ramping up pressure on policymakers.
Japan’s economy shrank at the fastest rate in 5-1/2 years in the
December quarter due to the hit from a sales tax hike and the U.S.-China trade
war. Many analysts see it slipping into recession - two straight quarters of
contraction - this quarter as the virus hits the global economy.
More
'Very material' contraction likely in Australia due to coronavirus - central bank minutes
April 1, 2020 /
1:57 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia’s central bank was worried about the
potential for a “very material contraction” in economic activity when it
decided to foray into quantitative easing in an out-of-cycle meeting last
month, minutes released on Wednesday showed.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held an ad-hoc meeting on March 18
when it reduced its cash rate to a record low 0.25% and embarked on a bond
buying programme to try and shield the economy from the devastation caused by
the coronavirus pandemic.
The RBA said it was not possible to provide an updated set of economic
forecasts, given the “fluidity of the situation” though it was “likely that
Australia would experience a very material contraction”.
The number of coronavirus cases in Australia now exceeds 4,500 with 20
deaths. Authorities, worried about the spread of infection within the
community, have rolled out increasingly restrictive measures to combat the virus.
The RBA warned the economic contraction in Australia could potentially
linger beyond the June quarter.
---- Economists at Westpac are predicting Australia’s unemployment rate will soar above 11% by June and annual economic output will shrink by 3% in 2020.
Australia has not had two consecutive quarters of economic contraction
since the early 1990s.
More
Macy's to start furloughing workers this week due to COVID-19 closures
March 30, 2020 /
12:31 PM
March 30 (UPI) -- Macy's announced Monday it will start furloughing
employees this week as its stores remain closed because of the coronavirus
outbreak.
While the store chain didn't specify how many workers will be
furloughed, it said past measures to streamline costs like reducing receipts,
canceling orders and extending payment plans have not worked.
Macy's said workers enrolled in health benefits will continue to receive coverage, with the company covering 100 percent of the premium through the end of May. Macy's said it will return employees on a staggered basis when business is allowed to resume.
Macy's had about 130,000 employees in early February and operated 551 Macy's department stores, 53 Bloomingdale locations and outlets, and 171 Bluemercury shops. Those stores have been closed since March 18.
If the closures extend longer, department stores with limited ways to sell their inventory will feel more of the squeeze. Kohl's and Macy's have enough money to survive for five months while J.C. Penney and Nordstrom could last for about eight, according to an analysis by financial service firm Cowen & Co.
Hilton Grand Vacations suspends U.S. sales operations, closes resorts and taps revolver
Published: March 31, 2020 at 8:20 a.m. ET
Hilton Grand Vacations INc. HGV,
-6.64% said Tuesday it is suspending its U.S. sales
operations due to the growing number of travel restrictions and stay-at-home
policies being implemented across the country during the coronavirus pandemic.
The Orlando, Fla.-based company said it
has closed some resorts and is temporarily pausing reservations at its U.S.,
Europe and Barbados resorts through the end of April. Sales in Japan and South
Korea remain open on a limited basis and customer service team members are
available for customers who want to change or cancel travel. "While the
level of disruption to the travel industry is unprecedented, we remain
confident in our ability to manage through this difficult period," Chief
Executive Mark Wang said in a statmeent. "Approximately 40% of 2019
segment EBITDA was derived from recurring fees in our Finance and Club &
Resort segments. Through the end of March, we have collected approximately 90%
of our member fees for fiscal 2020, which fund all of the operational costs of
our resorts."
The company has a leverage ratio of 1.59
times and had just over $1 billion in liquidity at end-February. In March, the
company drew down the remainder of its revolving credit facility. Shares were
not active Premarket, but have fallen 53% in the year to date, while the
S&P 500 SPX,
+3.35% has fallen 19%.
Ad giant WPP pulls dividend, buyback and outlook as clients cut spending
March 31, 2020 /
7:11 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
The world’s biggest advertising company WPP (WPP.L) has pulled its
dividend and share buyback and withdrawn its 2020 guidance after the
coronavirus pandemic sparked the most uncertain time in its 35-year history.
The owner of the Ogilvy, Grey and Hill+Knowlton agencies said its
actions, along with a cost cutting drive, would save around 2 billion pounds in
2020 to see it through a downturn in client spending.
Chief Executive Mark Read said fallout from the coronavirus outbreak had
been much more rapid than from the 2008 economic crash, hitting different
sectors more quickly and leaving many companies with zero revenue and no reason
to spend on marketing.
“This is the period with the greatest uncertainty,” Read told Reuters.
“We don’t know yet whether it will be the worst.”
The pandemic, which has shut down the global economy with shopping
districts deserted, sports fixtures cancelled and millions of people left idle,
has come at a difficult time for the company that was founded by Martin
Sorrell.
---- To conserve cash WPP has frozen new hires, reviewed freelance expenditure, stopped discretionary costs such as travel and postponed salary increases. It will also save more than 100 million pounds assigned for property and IT costs.
Members of the executive committee and board have also taken a 20%
salary cut for an initial period of three months.
The group, with 2019 revenue of 13 billion pounds, also had 3 billion
pounds of cash at the end of 2019, and additional liquidity.
More
Finally, as Saudi
Arabia from today attempts to ramp up production and sales towards 12 million
barrels a day, even as the global economy undergoes entering a new recession if
not the first depression since the 1930s, oil demand has slumped ushering in the
age almost free oil. This will not end well for America’s deeply indebted oil
shale frackers.
Below, some
representative current crude oil prices. No one but the Arabs, and petrol price
gouging retailers, are making money now.
Brent crude 22.74
WTI (NYMEX) 20.51
WCS (Canada) 4.69
Urals (Russia) 17.85
Colorado 9.00 -10.00 depending on location.
N. Dakota light 9.69
Wyoming Sweet 9.00 to
13.50 depending on location.
Wyoming Asphalt -0.47 that’s right they can’t give it away!
Leong Hoe Nam, an
infectious disease expert at Singapore’s Mount Elizabeth hospital, said mass
disinfections are eye-catching and may boost morale but are not effective virus
controls.
“It would have
better effect using a water cannon to disperse people and make them go home,”
he said.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
While we may not be doing a very
good job of killing off Covid-19, we’re going gang busters at killing off our
national economies.
More and more with each
passing day, I see my town’s double decker busses trundling around empty, or
with just one or two passengers.
For how long the town busses
can operate with little in the way of bus fares is anyone’s guess, but one day
I suspect there won’t be any busses at all.
Today, how to kill off the
UK’s garden centres. The upcoming Easter Bank Holiday weekend is normally one
of their biggest sales weekends if not all to often their biggest.
Coronavirus: Millions of garden plants set to be binned
31 March, 2020
Millions of plants, shrubs and trees could be binned in the coming days
and weeks, meaning ruin for UK growers.
The closure of 2,000 garden centres and nurseries mean makers of what's
called "ornamental horticulture" have no outlet for their plants.
The Horticultural Trades Association (HTA) is asking the government for
financial assistance of up to £250m to help the industry avoid collapse.
It warned that up to a third of producers could go bust.
Ornamental plant growers' main assets are their inventory of plants -
and they are facing a loss of nearly their entire 2020 income, according to the
HTA.
As one grower put it: "My car dealer down the road is shut. However
painful that will be - they will still have all their vehicles.
"At roughly the same value, in three months' time, if I'm a nursery
producing seasonal plants it will be nil."
The government recently banned all "non-essential" retail in the UK, to try to stop the spread of Covid-19.
James Barnes, who chairs the HTA, told the BBC's Today programme that the industry had "hit a perfect storm".
"Growers will have spent the last three or four months building up supplies which they can't sell and all of this stock is perishable," he said.
"If they can't sell it, it can't get to the end user, it can't get in the ground, then it has to be written off. They'll have to be literally thrown away."
Mr Barnes said the HTA was trying to persuade the government to bring in a scrappage scheme for plants that would provide specific assistance to growers.
'Cancellations came in from everywhere'
The closure of garden centres due to the pandemic comes at the worst possible moment for producers like Neil Alcock - the beginning of the peak March to July gardening season.He's the managing director of Seiont Nurseries in north Wales, which grows and supplies young plants to the retail supply chain.
He told BBC Breakfast: "This should be our busiest time of year.
Last week in fact, we should have had the busiest in our entire history - but
that's when the coronavirus kicked in.
"We had sold thousands of plants, but then cancellations came in
from everywhere. No ifs, no buts, the whole retail supply chain stopped for
us."
Neil said that the firm had seen a downturn costing them about £100,000
worth of orders.
The value of stock during this key trading period is typically three to
four times the year-end value of most businesses.
This is the period at which they are most extended financially and feel
unwilling, or unable, to take on additional debt available through government
schemes that offer guarantees to lenders but not borrowers.
Online sales are not the answer, according to industry leaders who say
that there is not enough delivery capacity to even make a dent in the stranded
inventory belonging to UK growers.
The HTA told the BBC that "the seasonality of the garden industry
and the perishable nature" of many plants puts the UK industry in a
difficult position.
There are about 23 million gardeners in the UK, and at a time when many
people are spending more time in their gardens (for those lucky enough to have
one), there is a very real prospect that the country's gardens and villages
will fail to bloom in the months ahead.
Without assistance, it's not just the plants that may wither and die.
Large parts of the gardening industry may do the same.
Covid-19: Wines and spirits giant Halewood to close site and cut jobs as outbreak hits firm
Whitley Neill maker Halewood employs 1,000 people at sites
across the world
Merseyside distilling giant Halewood Wines and Spirits has said it is to close an entire site and cut jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus.
The firm employs around 1,000 people at sites across the world, and said on Tuesday it had been hit "very hard financially by the impact of Covid-19".
The business, whose several core products include Whitley Neill and Liverpool Gin as well as Lambrini, vodka and ginger beer brands, said the outbreak has meant "important" sales revenue has been lost.
Stewart Hainsworth, Group CEO of Halewood Wines and Spirits, said the move would include the closure of its US office in Miami, as well as a downsizing of the Australian business - and senior management taking "significant pay cuts".
It's not yet known how the news will affect the Merseyside site, and the number of jobs set to be lost is also unknown.
Mr Hainsworth said: “As a business, Halewood Wines and Spirits remains committed to its successful strategy of building a range of artisanal spirits brands with strong provenance.
"However, like many companies, we’ve been hit very hard financially by the impact of Covid-19.
"We’ve lost important sales revenue from bars, restaurants and pubs across the UK and the duty-free trade, while also experiencing a sizeable downturn in export sales.
“We’ve taken immediate steps to safeguard jobs and attempt to secure the long-term future of a business founded over 40 years ago.
"Senior management are taking significant pay cuts and operations have been adjusted to reduce working hours and overheads."
The sad news comes after an outstanding 2019 for the firm, which included its Whitley Neill rhubarb and ginger product listed in Amazon's top ten best-selling UK items, and plans for international expansion into North America, Russia, China and Australia.
Mr Hainsworth added: “Regrettably the Covid-19 outbreak does mean we are introducing a scheme of voluntary redundancies and the closure of some sites.
"This includes closure of our operations in the US and downsizing our Australian business.
“We are looking at Government measures to attempt to minimise the financial disruption caused by COVID-19 and will continue to take any steps we can to protect jobs and help steer the company through this difficult and uncertain period.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Tesla’s next killer app: solar power on its electric cars – starting with Cybertruck
Mar. 31st 2020 7:16 pm ET
Solar power on
electric cars has yet to become a common feature, but Tesla is about to change
that – starting with the Cybertruck electric pickup.
For example, we estimated that the solar cells on the Prius Prime’s roof could generate enough power to add about ~2 miles of range during the day. And of course, that’s highly dependent on where you are in the world and where you park your car.
However, solar power technology has been improving greatly and it is increasingly starting to make more sense.
There are even startups, like Sono Motors and Lightyear, developing electric vehicles mainly powered through onboard solar power.
Tesla CEO Elon has been looking into the idea for years.
In 2017, he said that he pushed his Tesla engineers to look into integrating solar cells on Model 3, but they concluded that it wasn’t worth it at the time.
Two years later, things have changed.
After the launch of the Cybertruck, Musk said that Tesla’s new electric pickup truck will have a solar roof option that will add 15 miles of range per day.
It’s the first time that a solar roof system has been confirmed to be
coming to a Tesla vehicle.
Tesla has yet to open the configurator for the Cybertruck and therefore,
we don’t know the price or availability of the solar roof feature for the
Cybertruck.
The automaker is aiming to release the Cybertruck in late 2021 and we
expect to have more details about the options for the pickup truck by then.
More
I’m sceptical this is worth the effort. Besides, with our
new global recession or worse arriving, who knows if Tesla itself can survive?
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More
https://www.nixenepublishing.com/
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 21,917 +45 Down. NASDAQ: 7,700 +149 Down.
SP500: 2,585 +38 Down.
The NASDAQ and S&P have
joined the DJIA in down. All three monthly slow indexes have collapsed.
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