Baltic Dry Index. 751 +25 Brent Crude 27.76 Spot
Gold 1682
Coronavirus Cases 20/4/20
World 2,416,289 Deaths 166,126
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a
boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the
crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further
credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency
system involved."
Ludwig
von Mises.
Following
the coronavirus crisis of the start of 2020, we are all now flying blind in our
still collapsing global economy. No one knows what comes next because the old system
that collapsed in 2008-2009 and was put on central bankster life support and
political market rigging, finally died in early 2020.
What
comes next, neither the G-20 finance ministers, nor the massed ranks of
incompetent central banksters who created this crisis, have the slightest idea.
In
a panic, ad-hoc Bernie Sanderism or Jeremy Corbynism is being rushed into
effect. State socialism for the masses in the hundreds of dollars, state
socialism for the banksters, hedge funds, ETFs, stock pedlars, and hundreds of
other unproductive rent seekers, in the multi trillions. All to be paid for by
the central banks funding government(s) by unlimited amounts of new electronic “money.”
No
one has any plan for the new financial age underway. We have reached our 410 AD
moment when the Roman Legions left England and Wales to try to defend Roman
Western Europe from Barbarian (Germanic tribes,) attack. (It didn’t work, and
the barbarians sacked Rome in 479AD.)
If
not 410, how about 1539, when the violent misogynist King Henry the Eighth set
about sacking and dissolving the monasteries, declaring himself Pope in England
and Wales, wrecking much of the country and economy as collateral damage.
In
both instances, no one knew what to expect next. And so it is now, as the state
sets about paying some people and businesses not to open or work. Others not to
sell bonds or stocks except to central bank’s special vehicles at rigged prices.
Whole sections of society to close down and self isolate. Paying airlines not
to fly. Collapsing the demand for oil and oil products.
In
effect, we are nationalising most of the economy via global fiat money freshly
created out of nothing at the push of a computer button. A massive unplanned, unpredictable,
global financial experiment is now underway.
Making
matters worse, no one knows how the Covid-19 pandemic ends. No one knows how
high unemployment will rise nor for how long. No one knows how the great oil
bust plays out.
On
that unhappy note, we open in Asia with a massive oil bust in Singapore, and in
West Texas Intermediate crude oil running out of storage space.
Asia shares turn quietly cautious, U.S. crude crushed
April 20, 2020 /
1:41 AM
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Caution gripped Asian share markets on Monday on expectations a
busy week of corporate earnings reports and economic data will drive home the
damage done by the global virus lockdown, while a glut of supply sent U.S.
crude spiraling to 20-year lows.
Japan reported its exports fell almost 12% in March from a year earlier, with shipments to the United States down over 16%. Early readings on April manufacturing globally are due on Thursday and are expected to show recession-like readings.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS eased 0.2% in slow trade, with a pause needed after five straight weeks of gains. Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell 0.9% and Shanghai blue chips .CSI300 2.4% even as China cut benchmark interest rates as widely expected.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 slipped 0.2%, having jumped last week on hopes some U.S. states would soon start to re-open their economies.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Sunday that Republicans were “close” to getting a deal with Democrats on a support package for small business.
But the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported an increase of 29,916 in new infections and said the number of deaths had risen by 1,759 to 37,202.
The S&P 500 .SPX has still rallied 30% from its March low, thanks in part to the extreme easing steps taken by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has bought nearly $1.3 trillion of Treasuries alone, and many billions of non-sovereign debt it would historically have never gone near.
“The Fed will be a major buyer of risky assets in the coming months, and has displayed its willingness to backstop virtually any part of the domestic financial system in trouble,” said Oliver Jones, a senior markets economist at Capital Economics.
Yet the particular composition of the S&P 500 was also a major factor, he added, as three sectors relatively resilient to a virus-induced lockdown — IT, communications services and healthcare — make up around 50% of the index.
Indeed, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook account for more than a fifth of the index.
---- The rebound in the S&P 500 therefore likely overstated optimism on the economy, Jones argued, noting European benchmark equities indices and U.S. small cap indices were still in bear market territory.
Bond markets suggested investors expected tough economic times ahead
with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR steady at 0.64%, from 1.91% at
the start of the year.
---- Oil prices remained under pressure as the global lockdown saw fuel demand evaporate, leaving so much extra supply countries were finding it hard to find space to store it.
So great was the near-term glut that the May futures contract for U.S.
crude was trading down 15% at $15.54 a barrel CLc1, while June shed 5% to
$23.71 CLc2.
Brent crude LCOc1 does not have the same storage problems and its June
contract was off only 25 cents at $27.83 a barrel.
More
In better global news, it’s an ill wind
and all that, at least for wildlife.
Deserted Thai beaches lure rare turtles to build most nests in 20 years
April 20, 2020 /
4:02 AM
BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand has found the largest number of nests of
rare leatherback sea turtles in two decades on beaches bereft of tourists
because of the coronavirus pandemic, environmentalists say.
From wild boars patrolling the Israeli city of Haifa to deer venturing
into London suburbs, virus closures are drawing wildlife into the abandoned
streets of many cities.
In Thailand, with 2,765 infections and 47 deaths, travel curbs ranging
from a ban on international flights to an appeal to citizens to stay home have
brought a collapse in tourist numbers, but freed up the beaches for wildlife.
The 11 turtle nests authorities have found since last November were the
highest number in 20 years, said Kongkiat Kittiwatanawong, the director of the
Phuket Marine Biological Center.
“This is a very good sign for us because many areas for spawning have
been destroyed by humans,” he told Reuters. No such nests had been found for
the previous five years.
“If we compare to the year before, we didn’t have this many spawn,
because turtles have a high risk of getting killed by fishing gear and humans
disturbing the beach.”
Leatherbacks are the world’s largest sea turtles. They are considered
endangered in Thailand, and listed as a vulnerable species globally by the
International Union for Conservation of Nature.
They lay their eggs in dark and quiet areas, scarce when tourists thronged
the beaches. People have also been known to dig into their nests and steal
eggs.
Late in March, staff at a national park in the southern province of
Phanga Nga bordering the Andaman Sea found 84 hatchlings after monitoring eggs
for two months.
Up
next, the start of the coming wave of commodities bankruptcies. As usual in
commodities, expect scandal, fraud, deceit, and false protestations of who knew
or could have known?
It,
and high leverage, aka as gearing in the UK, is what makes commodities trading
so interesting and dangerous. Remember the classic definition of a gold mine, “a
hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it.”
Hin Leong Failed to Declare $800 Million Losses
By Serene Cheong, Alfred Cang, and Joyce Koh
April 19, 2020, 9:19 AM GMT+1 Updated on April 19, 2020,
2:59 PM GMT+1
·
Futures losses weren’t shown in financial
statements: people
·
Trader said to have accounting deficit of about
$3.34 billion
The son of the legendary founder of Hin Leong said the Singapore oil trader hid about $800 million in losses racked up in futures trading, suggesting a much bigger hole in the company’s finances than thought, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The downfall of Hin Leong Trading (Pte) Ltd., one of the biggest and most secretive forces in the world of physical fuel-oil trading, shows the depth of the fallout from the dramatic drop in oil prices so far this year as a consequence of the Saudi-Russia price war and the coronavirus pandemic.
Lim Chee Meng, the only son of Lim Oon Kuin, said the company also sold some of the million of barrels of refined products it had used as collateral to secure loans from its banks, according to the people, citing an April 17 email sent by the shipping affiliate of Hin Leong, notifying recipient parties of proposed moratorium proceedings.
As a result, the company faces a significant shortfall between the oil stocks it held and the inventories pledged to its banks. That potentially means huge losses for the banks which provided the merchant with billions in loans as the collateral they thought they have as a guarantee isn’t there.
The trouble at Hin Leong is the latest to hit the commodity trading community in Singapore, among the largest hubs alongside Geneva, London and Houston. Over the last three years, the city state has seen the collapse of two other big names in the industry: Noble Group and Agritrade, and a rogue trader raking up millions in losses.
The son, also known as Evan Lim, said he was unaware of the reason for losses
More
Finally,
one version of the ending when our deeply flawed central banksters lose
control. Another version is a return to the state “capitalism” of Mussolini,
Hitler, Stalin and Mao.
Von Greyerz: A Hyperinflationary Depression Has Always Been The Inevitable Endgame
Sat, 04/18/2020 - 18:55
----Global debt in
1981 was $14 trillion. One would have assumed that with interest rates crashing
there would not have been a major demand for debt. High demand would have led
to high interest rates. But if we look at global debt in 2020 it is a
staggering $265 trillion. So debt has gone up 19X in the last 39 years and cost
of debt has gone from 20% to 0% – Hmmm!
-----Money is a commodity and the price should be a direct function of risk plus supply and demand. But since we currently have a false financial system with fake money and false markets, there are no real prices. So through constant manipulation and intervention central banks together with a few accomplices can totally rig most markets and prices.
Therefore, the cost of money today neither reflects the risk nor the demand. All it represents is malicious manipulation to serve governments and their masters the central bankers. But like all fake markets, also this one will end, not just badly but catastrophically.
THE SITUATION IS DESPERATE FOR BUSINESSES AND INDIVIDUALS
As I discussed in last week’s article, we now have the perfect storm. Virtually every government in the world is now committing billions and trillions of dollars, euros etc in fruitless attempts to save a collapsing world economy. In many countries, 50% or more of industry is shut. Most service industries are in a total lockdown and so is aviation, transport and most small businesses.Unemployment is approaching rates not seen since the 1930s depression. All businesses need assistance, from major corporations to small firms. The majority of individuals haven’t got savings for more than a couple of weeks living and for the ones who are now becoming unemployed, the situation is desperate.
Many major US corporations need assistance from the government. Very few of these have put aside profits to reserves for a rainy day. Instead management has been too generously rewarded as well as the shareholders. Since 2009, S&P 500 companies have spent $5.4 trillion in share buybacks. Instead of asking government for assistance, management should pay back their bonuses and shareholders who have received major payouts should recapitalise the companies. But this will obviously not happen. Just like in 2006-9, profits are privatised and losses are socialised.
Businesses are haemorrhaging cash and so are individuals. All that becomes a vicious circle with bills not being paid including rents, mortgages and taxes. Estimates predict a 40-50% fall in Q2 2020 GDP in the US. The problem is that this is not a temporary crisis. This means that GDP will see permanent erosion of a major magnitude in most countries.
SECULAR DOWNTURN LEADING TO HYPERINFLATIONARY DEPRESSION
So what we are experiencing is the start of a secular downturn which soon will become a hyperinflationary depression. This was always the inevitable end to this cycle as I have discussed in many articles for over 20 years.A crisis of this magnitude is always a debt crisis. Very soon we will see debt around the world come under enormous pressure as borrowers start defaulting. This will lead to bonds crashing and rates surging. Central banks will then lose control of interest rates as long rates first go up and soon also pulling the shorter rates up. Rates can easily go to 15-20%. Many bonds will go to zero and rates to infinity. I have previously talked about paying 21% on my first mortgage in the UK in 1974. So I have personal experience of high inflation but never hyperinflation.
Since the majority of the $1.5 quadrillion derivatives market is interest related, this market will also blow up. All this will lead to unlimited money printing and currencies crashing fast to their intrinsic value of ZERO. At that point the entire financial system will be unrecognisable and parts of it nonexistent. All of this could happen very quickly, possibly within the next 6 -18 months.
More
“Fiat-money! Let the State 'create' money, and make the poor
rich, and free them from the bonds of the capitalists! How foolish to forego
the opportunity of making everybody rich, and consequently happy, that the
State's right to create money gives it! How wrong to forego it simply because
this would run counter to the interests of the rich! How wicked of the
economists to assert that it is not within the power of the State to create
wealth by means of the printing press!- You statesmen want to build railways,
and complain of the low state of the exchequer? Well, then, do not beg loans
from the capitalists and anxiously calculate whether your railways will bring
in enough to enable you to pay interest and amortization on your debt. Create
money, and help yourselves.”
Ludwig von Mises, The
Theory of Money and Credit
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing the peak of new cases, at least of the first
SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperature, a threat to lab staff around world: paper
·
French scientists had to bring the temperature
to almost boiling point to kill virus
·
Results have implications for the safety of lab
technicians working with the virus
Stephen Chen in Beijing Published:
4:00pm, 14 Apr, 2020
The newcoronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperatures, according to an
experiment by a team of French scientists.
Professor Remi Charrel and colleagues at the Aix-Marseille University in
southern France heated the
virus that causes Covid-19 to 60 degrees Celsius (140 Fahrenheit) for an hour
and found that some strains were still able to replicate.
The scientists had to bring the temperature to almost boiling point to
kill the virus completely, according to their non-peer-reviewed paper released
on bioRxiv.org on Saturday. The results have implications for the safety of lab
technicians working with the virus.
After scientists heated the novel coronavirus, some strains survived.
Three-dimensional illustration of Covid-19 under the microscope. Photo:
Shutterstock Images
The new coronavirus can survive long exposure to high temperatures, according to an
experiment by a team of French scientists.
Professor Remi Charrel and colleagues at the Aix-Marseille University in
southern France
heated the virus that causes Covid-19 to 60 degrees Celsius (140
Fahrenheit) for an hour and found that some strains were still able to replicate.
The scientists had to bring the temperature to almost boiling point to
kill the virus completely, according to their non-peer-reviewed paper released
on bioRxiv.org on Saturday. The results have implications for the safety of lab
technicians working with the virus.
The team in France infected African green monkey kidney cells, a
standard host material for viral activity tests, with a strain isolated from a
patient in Berlin, Germany. The cells were loaded into tubes representing two
different types of environments, one “clean” and the other “dirty” with animal
proteins to simulate biological contamination in real-life samples, such as an
oral swab.
After the heating, the viral strains in the clean environment were
thoroughly deactivated. Some strains in the dirty samples, however, survived.
More
How Trump Is Fueling a Corona Disaster
Donald Trump’s disastrous crisis management
has made the United States the new epicenter of the global coronavirus
pandemic. The country is facing an unprecedented economic crash. Are we
witnessing the implosion of a superpower? By DER SPIEGEL Staff
11.04.2020, 21:41 Uhr
"I never would have thought I would ever have to do something like
this,” Greg Turner says with a bitter smile, as if he feels he has to
apologize. It’s a rainy gray Monday afternoon in Alameda, California. Turner,
55, who sports a beard and a cap, is one of dozens of Americans who have lined
up to enter the city’s food bank. When asked if he has lost his job, he runs
his hand, held parallel, across his throat. He was laid off without any notice
three weeks ago after working for 15 years as a machinist at a supplier for
DowDuPont Inc., the chemical industry giant.
"There are 10 times more people coming than usual,” says Cindy
Houts, the food bank’s executive director, "and there are more coming each
day.” To cope with the onslaught, she has decided to move food distribution to
an industrial zone on the outskirts of town. The line stretches out over two
blocks.
Everything is done according to strict rules.
If a person arrives in a car, they are not allowed to lower their
windows. When the driver reaches the stop mark, the engine has to be turned off
and the trunk opened. Then three helpers with protective masks step up to the
trunk, one after the other, and load three paper bags into it. One contains
non-perishable foods, one contains dairy products, the third contains fruits
and vegetables. Not a single word is exchanged. All you can hear is the sound
of the rain pattering on the roofs of the cars.
----
Now the coronavirus has plunged the country into the greatest crisis since the
Great Depression. That period began with the crash of the New York Stock
Exchange in the fall of 1929 and is still etched into the collective
consciousness. The pandemic is affecting every nation on the planet, but
nowhere in the Western world has it brought to light shortcomings as
relentlessly as it has in the United States. At the end of February, the
American president claimed that his government was in complete control of the
situation. But now the number of infected is approaching the 500,000-mark.
Hospitals in New York, Detroit and New Orleans are barely able to cope with the
onslaught of sick people.
And
unlike in previous global crises, the U.S. is failing as a global leader. The
country is currently too concerned with itself. Trump, as is so often the case,
is trying to save himself by attacking the international organization that is
supposed to coordinate the global fight against the crisis: the World Health
Organization (WHO). He has threatened to defund the WHO because, he claims, it
"blew it.”
----
But the pandemic is also exposing weaknesses that existed before Trump’s
election: a health-care system that fails the very moment when it is most
needed, and a capitalist system that is unrestrained during boom times, and
unimpeded when it crashes. Above all, however, it has revealed a democracy that
has forgotten how to compromise.
Is the world witnessing the collapse of a superpower? Is the U.S. facing
a "Suez” moment, as Washington-based political scientist Rush Doshi puts
it? In the fall of 1956, Egypt won the conflict over the Suez Canal, thus
demonstrating to the world that the days of the British Empire were finally a
relic of the past.
The end of the American era has often been evoked, but the signs of
crisis have never been as clear as they are now. Although the virus began its
spread at a market selling exotic animals in Wuhan, China has become the first
country to contain the pandemic. It is now airlifting simple, but nevertheless
scarce products to the U.S.: fever thermometers, masks and protective gowns.
---- The U.S. actually ought to be very well prepared for a pandemic. In 2018, almost 18 percent of the country’s gross domestic product flowed into the health sector, a total of $3.6 trillion (3.3 trillion euros). But the American health-care system is enormously expensive and highly inefficient. The wealthy and people with good jobs often receive excellent medical care. But a lot of that money goes into the coffers of pharmaceutical and insurance companies.
That is now being exacerbated by political ineptitude.
More
Ending Virus Shutdowns Too Soon Poses Legal Risk for Businesses
April 17, 2020
· Companies see bankruptcy
threat even from hard-to-prove claims Whenever U.S. stores, restaurants and theaters reopen from coronavirus shutdowns, they may face an unexpected problem: lawsuits from sick patrons and workers.
Business owners hit hard by Covid-19 are eager to get back to work as the outbreak shows signs of slowing and the Trump administration pushes for a quick restart of the nation’s economy. But with no vaccine for the easily transmitted virus, companies opening too soon could be blamed if more people get sick. Walmart Inc. and Carnival Corp. are among those already defending lawsuits by employees or customers.
More
Chinese airlines report 70% drop in business, warning worst isn’t over yet
Source:Global
Times Published: 2020/4/18 14:29:51
The
top three Chinese airlines - China Southern, China Eastern, and Air China - all
reported staggering over 70 percent year-on-year slump in passenger turnover in
March as COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread globally.
The three airlines warned that due to the severe impact of the deadly virus on the civil aviation transport industry, their operating performance in the first quarter will suffer a heavy blow.
While China Eastern and China Southern estimated major losses in the first quarter, China Southern warned of lingering fallout from the virus in the first half of the year, thepaper.cn reported.
Despite revenue slightly picking up from February, the three major airlines have seen a massive fall in a slew of indicators in March, according to data released on Friday. Air China's business revenue in the month was 5.06 billion, down 73.5 percent year-on-year. China Eastern's revenue was 3.74 billion, down 79.11 percent year-on-year, and China Southern's revenue stood at 6.31 billion, down 72.33 percent.
The average passenger loads of the three major airlines in the first quarter are disappointing too, with Air China reporting 56.8 percent, down 23.9 percentage points year-on-year. The passenger loads of China Eastern was 55.78 percent, down 27.01 percentage points year-on-year and the passenger loads for China Southern was 58.16 percent, down 24.99 percentage points year-on-year.
Bearing the brunt of the pandemic, the industry is facing rising challenges in the near term. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) pointed out airline passenger revenues are set to plunge 55 percent - a loss of $314 billion - in 2020 due to the pandemic, according to its official site.
China Southern said since late January, the spread of the pandemic across the world has led to a sharp decline in aviation demand. As the pandemic situation, internationally, remains grim, Chinese airline companies are now actively exploring ways to offset their losses.
The three airlines warned that due to the severe impact of the deadly virus on the civil aviation transport industry, their operating performance in the first quarter will suffer a heavy blow.
While China Eastern and China Southern estimated major losses in the first quarter, China Southern warned of lingering fallout from the virus in the first half of the year, thepaper.cn reported.
Despite revenue slightly picking up from February, the three major airlines have seen a massive fall in a slew of indicators in March, according to data released on Friday. Air China's business revenue in the month was 5.06 billion, down 73.5 percent year-on-year. China Eastern's revenue was 3.74 billion, down 79.11 percent year-on-year, and China Southern's revenue stood at 6.31 billion, down 72.33 percent.
The average passenger loads of the three major airlines in the first quarter are disappointing too, with Air China reporting 56.8 percent, down 23.9 percentage points year-on-year. The passenger loads of China Eastern was 55.78 percent, down 27.01 percentage points year-on-year and the passenger loads for China Southern was 58.16 percent, down 24.99 percentage points year-on-year.
Bearing the brunt of the pandemic, the industry is facing rising challenges in the near term. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) pointed out airline passenger revenues are set to plunge 55 percent - a loss of $314 billion - in 2020 due to the pandemic, according to its official site.
China Southern said since late January, the spread of the pandemic across the world has led to a sharp decline in aviation demand. As the pandemic situation, internationally, remains grim, Chinese airline companies are now actively exploring ways to offset their losses.
More
The Crash of the $8.5 Billion Global Flower Trade
As people everywhere cancel events and big cut-flower orders, the ripples reach into Dutch auction halls and Kenyan rose fields.
April 17, 2020, 12:01 AM
“But it [the boom] could not
last forever even if inflation and credit expansion were to go on endlessly. It
would then encounter the barriers which prevent the boundless expansion of
circulation credit. It would lead to the crack-up boom and the breakdown of the
whole monetary system.”
Ludwig
von Mises.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates
as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Pushing the limits of 2D supramolecules
Date:
April 16, 2020
Source:
University of South Florida (USF Innovation)
Summary:
Researchers have reached a 'world record' in the development of two-dimensional
supramolecules.
Scientists at the University of South Florida have reached a new
milestone in the development of two-dimensional supramolecules -- the building
blocks that make areas of nanotechnology and nanomaterial advancement possible.
Since the 2004 discovery of graphene, the world's thinnest
(one-atom-thick) and strongest (200 times stronger than steel) material,
researchers have been working to further develop similar nanomaterials for
industrial, pharmaceutical and other commercial uses. Thanks to its conductive
properties and strength, graphene can be used in microelectronics to fortify
mechanical materials and has recently enabled precise 3D imaging of
nanoparticles.
While work to develop new supramolecules capable of further applications
has seen some success, those molecular formations are either small -- less than
10 nanometers in size -- or arbitrarily assemble, limiting their potential use.
But now, new research published in Nature Chemistry, outlines a profound
leap forward in supramolecular progress.
"Our research team has been able to overcome one of the major
supramolecular obstacles, developing a well-defined supramolecular structure
that pushes the 20-nanometer scale," said Xiaopeng Li, an associate
professor in the USF Department of Chemistry and the study's lead researcher.
"It's essentially a world record for this area of chemistry."
Li, along with his USF research team, collaborated with Saw Wai Hia's
team at the Argonne National Laboratory and Ohio University, as well as several
other U.S. and international research institutes on this effort.
More
“Other inflationists realize very well that an increase in the
quantity of money reduces the purchasing power of the monetary unit. But they
endeavour to secure inflation none-the-less, because of its effect on the value
of money; they want depreciation, because they want to favour debtors at the
expense of creditors and because they want to encourage exportation and make
importation difficult.”
Ludwig von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 21,917 +45 Down. NASDAQ: 7,700 +149 Down.
SP500: 2,585 +38 Down.
The NASDAQ and S&P have
joined the DJIA in down. All three monthly slow indexes have collapsed.
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