Baltic Dry Index. 635 Brent Crude 31.98 Spot
Gold 1714
Coronavirus Cases 14/4/20
World 1,925,384 Deaths 119,985
A trillion is
1,000,000,000,000, also known as 10 to the 12th power, or one million million.
(Well in the American money
counting system anyway, mathematically, it’s actually a billion. A trillion is
a 1 followed by 18 zeros, but let’s stick to monetary trillions, that’s bad
enough!)
In less than a
month, our central banksters have created (out of nothing) close to six
trillion of global new money, most of it US dollars, with at least another two
trillion dollars still to come in the USA for infrastructure stimulus spending,
under President Trump’s plan, with possibly another additional trillion to come
under the Democrats latest proposals. Have you got your slice of the new cash
yet?
The US Federal
Reserve, the Bank of England, have both joined the Bank of Japan, in directly
funding the government via electronic “printing” vast sums of “money.” How long before we enter the monetary Quadrillions,
a 1 with 15 zeros behind it?
Well we already have!
In global derivatives trading the notional outstanding amount is already in the
quadrillions, although it’s anyone’s guess as to how high since no one knows the size of the
unreported Over The Counter derivatives exposure (OTC.)
Put into
counting monetary seconds, you can count a million in about eleven and a half days, if you didn’t die of sleep
deprivation first. A billion would take us
about 31.5 years. A trillion, over 31,000 years, so don’t try.
None of our
central banksters, or politicians, know what they are doing, nor what will be
the end result.
So, what do I
think will be the end result of this central bankster takeover of the national
economies? Fiat money revulsion and a new global version of the USSR or Mao’s
China. At best a kinder, gentler, USSR perhaps, unless you step too far out of
line and lose your guaranteed universal income. At worst, the Gang of Four
elderly Maoist disaster of the China early 1970s.
Of course, the
Princelings surrounding the central banksters and government functionaries,
will do just fine as in Russia and China today.
Below, more
Fedster spin on the US economy. About as credible as China’s Covid-19
statistics.
But Asian markets
are buying it for now.
Asia shares jump but pandemic hangs heavy over outlook
April 14, 2020 /
12:56 AM
NEW YORK/SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian stocks bounced on Tuesday on hopes the coronavirus outbreak
may be peaking, though sentiment was cautious ahead of Chinese trade data and
corporate earnings as investors worried about a deep global recession.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI rose 0.2%.
That left MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS up 0.6%.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 were modestly higher, up 0.2%.
All eyes will be on China’s trade data, which is expected to show exports tumbling 14% in March from a year ago, as the coronavirus shutters businesses around the world, crippling demand and economic growth.
Indeed, some analysts say any optimism over signs the outbreak may be
peaking in hard-hit cities is quickly being offset by concerns that it may be a
while before businesses recover.
“Signs of the outbreak peaking - or at least slowing in some regions -
have started to turn the talk to when restrictions on activity can be eased,”
analysts at JPMorgan said in a note.
“Short of the unlikely near-term event of a vaccine or significant herd
immunity, restarting economies ... may be challenging,” the analysts wrote.
Wall Street indexes ended mixed on Monday with the Dow and S&P 500
falling while a 6.2% gain in Amazon shares helped the Nasdaq end higher.
More
China’s exports fell further in March amid coronavirus shutdown
Published: April 13, 2020 at 7:40
a.m. ET
The No. 2 official at the Federal Reserve on Monday said
the U.S. economy was fundamentally sound and the central bank would not need to
continue its massive support of financial markets indefinitely.“I’m very confident that as the economy recovers from this hit and begins to recover that we, at the appropriate time, will be able to unwind these programs. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the U.S. economy,” Fed Vice Chairman Clarida, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Read: Fed announces lending programs to push $2.3 trillion in the economy
The Fed has established nine lending facilities to keep credit flowing into all corners of the financial markets. Clarida called it an ambitious, aggressive and forceful use of monetary policy.
He downplayed any worry about “moral hazard” — a term for the worry that the Fed’s actions would ultimately spark investors to take even greater risk during the next expansion. Business are closing and people are unemployed through no fault of their own, and so moral hazard is not a relevant consideration, he said.
The Fed was only buying “junk” bonds of companies that had lost their investment-grade status only as a result of the crisis, he said.
Clarida said the central bank would keep its benchmark interest rate close to zero until the economy is on track. “The path of the economy is going to dictate the path of rates,” he said.
The Fed vice chairman said he didn’t think the crisis would result in a higher inflation rate. The worry was more about deflation, which he said the Fed would be able to combat effectively.
Last Updated: April 13, 2020 at
8:38 a.m. ET First Published: April 13, 2020 at 7:36 a.m. ET
Markets rebounded last week. Major equity indices have now recouped half
their losses from their Covid-driven lows. Credit spreads have retightened. The
dollar, which typically surges during episodes of risk aversion, has softened.
Apparently, investors believe the worst is over.
Various explanations have been proffered to explain the sharp market
recovery, anomalous as it appears given rising absolute numbers of infections
and deaths, surging unemployment, and collapsing economic activity.
Some observers point to the massive and unprecedented backstopping of
credit markets by central banks, including the Federal Reserve’s stupendous
$2.3 trillion package announced last week. Others cite a “wall of liquidity,”
from both central bank asset purchases and investors looking for alternatives
to low-, no-, or negative-yielding government bonds. Still others cite signs of
Covid-19 curve flattening as a harbinger that social distancing will soon be
relaxed. Finally, there is FOMO—fear of missing out—as investors rush back into
rising markets, worried they may fall behind peers or benchmarks; this dynamic
may also be amplified by computer-driven investment programs that follow trends
in market movement.
Each explanation has some merit. The risk of disorderly default has been
reduced by government guarantees and central bank largesse. The stock of
central bank money is shooting higher, flooding banks with liquidity. Investors
are notoriously herd-like. Above all, signs that the pandemic is cresting in
hard-hit regions is welcome, in its own right, and as a first step to the
resumption of more normal social and economic activity.
Still, we remain skeptical. Nothing in the bullish narrative really
factors in the size of job losses, the probable increases in precautionary
savings that could dampen demand for longer, the asymmetry between massive and
rapid layoffs relative to the likelihood that rehiring will be tentative and
gradual, the host of unknowns about whether a relaxation of social distancing
may lead to future rounds of contagion, the surge of public sector debt that
(at some point) will necessitate growth-sapping austerity, the potential loss
of shareholder value associated with reduced share buybacks and dividends, and
a host of other obstacles to the restoration of the status quo ante.
Speaking of the status quo ante, before the arrival of the pandemic a
perfect mix of factors had enabled global financial markets to be priced for
near perfection: Growth was moderate, inflation low, central banks
accommodative, corporate profits high, and trade truces declared. Accordingly,
real risk-free bond yields were at never-before-seen levels during a full
employment economic expansion, credit spreads were about as tight as they had
ever been and equity valuations traded well above long-term norms (at least in
the U.S.).
Today, things may be getting less bad, but they are hardly perfect.
Let’s take off the rose-tinted glasses for a moment. Here is what we see:
- the arrival of mass unemployment;
- probable sovereign debt downgrades;
- huge and unsustainable increases in public sector debt, including via unprecedented commitments to private sector debt obligations;
- an unknown path of pandemic containment;
- legitimate doubts about whether innovations that have driven a quarter-century boom in global corporate profitability—globalization, just-in-time inventories, and complex supply and finance chains—can be restored to what they were just several months ago.
So, why should it be that global equities are within 10-15% of their
“the-world-is-priced-for-perfection” 2020 highs?
For those who prefer numbers, consider the following.
More
Fading Vision Fund to tip SoftBank into first loss in 15 years
April 13, 2020 /
11:36 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
SoftBank expects its $100 billion Vision Fund to book a loss of 1.8 trillion
yen due to the worsening performance of its tech bets, which will tip the group
as a whole into its first loss for 15 years.
A third consecutive quarter of losses by the Saudi Arabian-backed fund will push SoftBank Group Corp (9984.T) to an annual operating loss of 1.35 trillion yen ($12.5 billion), it said in a statement on Monday.
The fund’s dire performance, which SoftBank attributed to “the deteriorating market environment” as markets are hammered by the coronavirus crisis, is a major blow to CEO Masayoshi Son’s attempts to revive his reputation among investors.
SoftBank’s finances are being squeezed after a disastrous bet on co-working firm WeWork and souring portfolio bets on startups that have sacked workers as the outlook has darkened.
The coronavirus pandemic has undermined predictions by Son, who just two months ago said “the tide is turning” and pointed to recovery at WeWork, forcing him into a major sell down of core assets to raise cash.
SoftBank did not disclose which Vision Fund tech bets were being marked down in the fourth quarter.
Activist investor Elliott Management wants greater transparency at the fund, whose nebulous valuations have contributed to the group’s persistent conglomerate discount.
The tech conglomerate said it would book an 800 billion yen loss on investments outside the fund including in WeWork and satellite operator OneWeb, which last month filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after SoftBank declined to provide further funding, contributing to a net loss of 750 billion yen.
SoftBank sees sales falling 36% after the deconsolidation of wireless carrier Sprint, which merged with T-Mobile US (TMUS.O).
The group’s shares, which are down by 11.7% this year, closed down 3.4% ahead of the announcement.
Last month, SoftBank announced its largest ever buyback to prop up the value of its shares, which have been pledged by Son as collateral for loans.
A
billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you're talking real money."
Senator
Everett Dirksen.
Though
hopefully, we are passing the peak of new cases, at least of the first
SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
April 13, 2020 /
4:33 AM / Updated April 13, 2020 at 7:11 PM
April 13 (UPI) -- The World Health Organization on Monday urged nations
to continue lockdowns and social distancing restrictions even though rates of
infection have begun to level off in many parts of the world.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the measures are
still needed because knowledge about the coronavirus disease is incomplete --
and it's still not known for certain whether patients who recover are immune
from reinfection.
"That means control measures must be lifted slowly, and with control," he said at the WHO's daily update from Geneva, Switzerland.
"It cannot happen all at once. Control measures can only be lifted if the right public health measures are in place, including significant capacity for contact tracing."
Ghebreyesus said the WHO will issue new guidelines on Tuesday with six criteria for authorities who are considering easing restrictions. They will include whether disease transmission is controlled and if national health systems have the capacity to trace every contact and treat every case.
Other guidelines will call for risks to be minimized in settings such as health facilities and nursing homes; workplaces to be secured; importation risks to be managed; and communities to be "fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the new norm.'"
French President Emmanuel Macron extended France's lockdown until May 11, saying "the epidemic is not yet under control" in the country.
Macron said daycare centers and schools will reopen at the end of the lockdown while the country's most vulnerable citizens, primarily the elderly will be ordered to remain inside.
He vowed the authorities would be prepared to test and quarantine anyone with symptoms and "general public" masks would be available on that date.
Britain's Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance said Monday that he expected the number of deaths from the coronavirus to continue rising this week and that the country should not relax restrictions until the country was "firmly on the other side," implying they could remain in place for at least another month.
More
Kashkari Says U.S. May Face 18 Months of Rolling Shutdowns
“We’re looking around the world. As they relax the economic controls, the virus flares back up again,” Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Kashkari is a voter in 2020 on the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
“We could have these waves of flareups, controls, flareups and controls until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine. I think we should all be focusing on an 18-month strategy for our health care system and our economy.”
Unemployment has skyrocketed in the U.S. over the last few weeks as state and local governments have ordered businesses to close their doors in a bid to contain the spread of the virus.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that a partial reopening of the economy could possibly begin in May, but cautioned that the outbreak could flare up again in the fall.
Kashkari warned that “this could be a long hard road that we have ahead of us until we get either to an effective therapy or a vaccine.”
“It’s hard for me to see a V-shaped recovery under that scenario,” he said.
More
What you need to know about the coronavirus right now
April 13, 2020 /
8:23 AM / Updated 5 hours ago
(Reuters) - Here’s what you need to know about the
coronavirus right now:
Restarting crucial industries
India is planning to restart some crucial manufacturing to ease the
difficulties of the poor, despite expectations it will extend a 21-day lockdown
beyond April 15, two government sources said.
Spain lifts restrictions on some businesses on Monday after shutting
down all non-essential operations nearly two weeks ago. This will allow
businesses that cannot operate remotely, including construction and
manufacturing, to reopen. The move has been criticised by some as risking a
resurgence in the spread of the virus.
Patients testing positive again
The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that it was looking
into reports of COVID-19 patients testing positive again after clinically
recovering from the disease.
South Korean officials had reported on Friday that 91 patients cleared
of the new coronavirus had tested positive again. Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of
the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told a briefing that the
virus may have been “reactivated” rather than the patients being re-infected.
Russian border becomes China’s new frontline
China’s northeastern border with Russia has become its new frontline in
the fight against a resurgence in the epidemic, as new daily cases rose to a
six-week high.
Half of the imported cases from the daily tally involved Chinese
nationals returning home from Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District through
border crossings in the Heilongjiang province.
Widespread testing needed
The United States needs to ramp up testing for the coronavirus as the White
House considers when and how to lift stay-at-home restrictions and lockdowns
triggered by the pandemic, U.S. health experts said on Sunday.
Diagnostic testing determines if somebody is infected with the virus and
antibody testing shows who has been infected and is therefore immune. Both will
be important in getting people back into the workplace and containing the virus
as that happens, the experts said.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-snapshot/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-coronavirus-right-now-idUKKCN21V0GW?il=0
Exclusive: South Korea to ship 600,000 coronavirus testing kits to U.S. on Tuesday - source
April 13, 2020 /
7:49 AM
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea plans to send 600,000
coronavirus testing kits to the United States on Tuesday in the first such
shipment following a request from U.S. President Donald Trump, a Seoul official
told Reuters on Monday.
Trump made the request for testing kits in a telephone call on March 25
with President Moon Jae-in, as the United States was grappling with
fast-growing outbreaks in many states.
A U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency cargo plane carrying the
equipment is scheduled to leave at 10:30 p.m. (1330 GMT) on Tuesday, the
official said, on condition of anonymity due to the diplomatic sensitivity of
the issue.
The first shipments will be handed over to and paid for by the U.S.
government, the official said.
An additional 150,000 kits will be exported in the near future and will
be sold through an unspecified local retailer, the official said.
The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) kits will be sourced from three
companies that secured preliminary approval late last month from the U.S. Food
and Drug Administration (FDA) to export kits to the United States, the official
said. He declined to name the two companies that will provide the shipments on
Tuesday.
However, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said, on condition
of anonymity, that one of the two firms is Osang Healthcare and the company
will provide 300,000 kits.
South Korea’s foreign ministry said it did not have information to share
immediately.
Calls to Osang Healthcare for a comment were not answered.
South Korean companies have previously shipped test kits to U.S. cities
including Los Angeles but this would mark the first bulk order from the U.S.
federal government.
Once struggling with the first large outbreak outside China, South Korea
has largely managed to bring its coronavirus cases under control without major
disruptions thanks to a massive testing campaign and intensive contact tracing.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea-usa/exclusive-south-korea-to-ship-600000-coronavirus-testing-kits-to-u-s-on-tuesday-source-idUKKCN21V0FS
U.S. ‘Perilously Close’ to Meat Shortage After Major Plant Closes Over Coronavirus
April 13, 2020 3:59 AM EDT
The world’s biggest pork producer is shuttering a major U.S. plant
indefinitely after a coronavirus outbreak among employees, with the company
warning that closures across the country are taking American meat supplies
“perilously close to the edge” of shortfalls.
Smithfield Foods will idle its Sioux Falls, South Dakota,
pork-processing facility, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S. production, the
company said in a statement Sunday. The move comes after state officials
reported more than 200 cases of Covid-19 for plant employees, adding to a spike
in infections that’s seen hundreds of American meat workers get sick. Plants
have been forced to shutter or reduce output.
“The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other
protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country
perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,” Smithfield’s Chief
Executive Officer Ken Sullivan said in the statement. “It is impossible to keep
our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running.”
While
it’s unclear whether the meat-employee infections have anything to do with the
workplaces, the news exposes the vulnerability of global supply chains that are
needed to keep grocers stocked after panic buying left shelves empty. The
shuttered plants and sick workers are adding to other disruptions caused by the
virus that’s making it harder for food to get from farm to table. Trucking
bottlenecks, and snarled port traffic have also contributed to why shoppers are
seeing empty shelves.
The
surge in cases has also raised concerns over worker safety. Deaths have been
reported for employees at meat facilities owned by JBS SA and Tyson Foods Inc.
Laborers have, in some cases, staged walk-outs to protest working conditions.
In meat plants, stations on processing lines can be close together, creating
challenges for social distancing. Workers also share break and locker rooms.
More
"I can say categorically that his investigation indicates
that no one on the White House staff, no one in this administration, presently
employed, was involved in this very bizarre incident [the Watergate burglary].
What really hurts in matters of this sort is not the fact that they occur,
because overzealous people in campaigns do things that are wrong. What really
hurts is if you try to cover it up."
President Richard Nixon.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
The new facility has more than 1.4 million solar panels and will generate clean energy to supply 250,000 people a year
12 April, 2020
A new 500MW solar photovoltaic plant in Spain, described by the Spanish utility Iberdrola as ‘the largest in Europe’ has entered operation.
The Núñez de Balboa facility, which involves an investment approaching €300 million (£263m), has more than 1.4 million solar panels and will generate enough clean energy to supply 250,000 people a year.
The utility estimated the new solar photovoltaic plant, which is located between the towns of Usagre, Hinojosa del Valle and Bienvenida in Badajoz, will prevent the emission of 215,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year.
The energy company also says more than 1,200 workers have worked during the last year to develop this project.
Iberdrola plans to install more than 2,000 MW of photovoltaic generation by 2022 in Spain across Extremadura.
https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/04/12/europes-largest-solar-plant-comes-online-despite-coronavirus-challenges/
"You don't know how to lie. If you can't lie, you'll never go anywhere."
President Richard Nixon.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished March
DJIA: 21,917 +45 Down. NASDAQ: 7,700 +149 Down.
SP500: 2,585 +38 Down.
The NASDAQ and S&P have
joined the DJIA in down. All three monthly slow indexes have collapsed.
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