Baltic Dry Index. 679 +44 Brent Crude 29.77 Spot
Gold 1725
Coronavirus Cases 15/4/20
World 2,004,613 Deaths 130,714
"If you bet on a horse
that's gambling.
If you bet you can make three spades, that's entertainment.
If you bet cotton will go up three points, that's business.
See the difference."
If you bet you can make three spades, that's entertainment.
If you bet cotton will go up three points, that's business.
See the difference."
Blackie Sherrord, gambler.
Theoretically, we are
at, or have passed the coronavirus peak of new cases, though not the peak of
Covid-19 attributed deaths. The statistics, of course, aren’t 100 percent
accurate, probably not even close, for a whole variety of reasons, including
human error, but they are a good approximation of where we stand in the
coronavirus crisis.
Assuming the best,
the majority of the world will start to come out of lockdowns next month. Assuming no resurgence of Covid-19 cases, at
least in the northern hemisphere summer, then comes the financial reckoning.
Who still has a job?
What businesses reopen and how many don’t? What damage to supply chains is
permanent? What level of demand suppression is permanent? Just how big was the hit to the global
economy, and to global employment? How big will the mess be in real estate?
Assuming the worst
doesn’t bear thinking about. The models are wrong and we are not passing the
peak. Or Covid-19 surges again as we get the release from lockdown all wrong.
Everything starts to close down once again!
In sophisticated stock
market financial terms, do we bet on red or black at the casino roulette wheel?
Asia shares consolidate, China cuts another interest rate
April 15, 2020 /
1:08 AM
SYDNEY/NEW YORK
(Reuters) - Asian share markets took a breather on Wednesday as warnings of the
worst global recession since the 1930s underlined the economic damage already
done even as some countries tried to re-open for business.
China moved again to cushion its economy, cutting a key medium-term
interest rate to record lows and paving the way for a similar reduction in
benchmark loan rates.
While not unexpected, it did help MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan edge up 0.3% to a fresh one-month top.
Shanghai blue chips, however, eased 0.2%.
Japan’s Nikkei was still off 0.5%, though that followed a 3% jump the
previous session. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 dipped 0.5%, following a
3% rise in New York.
“Flattening infection curves and the thoughts of more stimulus have
lifted all boats,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at
AxiCorp.
“However, appearances can be deceiving as behind the headlines lie the
most gnarly storm clouds building, suggesting there is still much to be worried
about.”
Even as some U.S. states considered relaxing restrictions, the country’s
death toll rose by at least 2,228, a single-day record, according to a Reuters
tally.
---- Much economic damage has already been done, with the International Monetary Fund predicting the world this year would suffer its steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan, warned such a slowdown would
take a heavy toll on corporate earnings.
“We project global profits to experience a roughly 70% peak-to-trough
decline in 2020,” he wrote in a note.
More
IMF slashes growth forecasts, says world will ‘very likely’ experience worst recession since the 1930s
Published Tue, Apr 14 20208:30 AM EDT
The global economy will this year likely suffer the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression, the International Monetary Fund said
Tuesday, as governments worldwide grapple with the Covid-19
pandemic.The Washington-based organization now expects the global economy to contract by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January it had forecast a global GDP (gross domestic product) expansion of 3.3% for this year.
“It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said in the latest World Economic Outlook report.
In January, the IMF had estimated 3.4% growth for global GDP in 2021;
this has now been revised up to 5.8% (although growth is expected to be coming
from a lower base following 2020′s projected contraction).
“A partial recovery is projected for 2021, with above trend growth
rates, but the level of GDP will remain below the pre-virus trend, with
considerable uncertainty about the strength of the rebound,” Gopinath said.
The dramatic downgrade in this year’s growth expectations comes as other institutions also warn that the coronavirus outbreak is bringing massive economic challenges. The World Trade Organization said last week that global trade will contract by between 13% and 32% this year. The Organization for Economic Coordination and Development has also warned the economic hit from the virus will be felt “for a long time to come.”
To contain the spread of the virus, many governments have implemented lockdown measures, only allowing people to leave their houses to purchase groceries, medicines and, in some cases, to exercise. As a result, business activity has stalled in many countries.
----The IMF said it had received “an unprecedented number of calls for
emergency funding.” Out of its 189 members, more than 90 of them have asked for
financial support.
Morehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/imf-global-economy-to-contract-by-3percent-due-to-coronavirus.html
French economy to contract 8% this year as lockdown extended: minister
April 14, 2020 /
8:12 AM
PARIS (Reuters) -
The French government on Tuesday scrapped its days-old economic outlook after
President Emmanuel Macron extended a national lockdown, shutting down swathes
of the euro zone’s second-biggest economy.
After Macron extended the lockdown until at least May 11, Finance
Minister Bruno Le Maire said the economy was now expected to contract 8% this
year instead of the 6% flagged as recently as Thursday.
Since March 17, France’s 67 million people have been ordered to stay at
home except to buy food, go to work, seek medical care or get some exercise on
their own. The lockdown was originally scheduled to end on Tuesday.
The extension would put additional strain on public finances, blowing
the public sector budget deficit out to a post-war record of 9% of GDP, up from
7.6% last week, budget minister Gerald Darmanin told France Info.
The government last week more than doubled a package of measures to pull
the economy back from the precipice to at least 100 billion euros ($109.32
billion) - over 4% of economic output.
“If we need to do more, then we will do more. We will be there,” Le
Maire told BFM TV.
The package allows companies to defer billions of euros of tax and
payroll charges to cope with the collapse in business and creates a 7 billion
euro solidarity fund for the most fragile small companies, which has already
been tapped by 900,000 firms,
With eight million workers on state-subsidised furloughs, the government
has increased to budget for that programme to 24 billion euros from 20 billion
euros before the extension, Le Maire said.
The government has also pledged to guarantee up to 300 billion euros of
business loans from commercial loans to help see companies through the crisis.
More
Opinion: States are facing a fiscal crisis that will be as brutal as that of the Great Recession
Published: April
14, 2020 at 6:05 a.m. ET
----Today, as governors continue to provide leadership on the coronavirus crisis they are about to
confront a second crisis, as their state’s fiscal positions will rapidly
deteriorate. In my view, it will be as bad as the Great Recession of 2008 to
2009 and its aftermath.I might call that lecture now “Governor, why did you want that job anyway?”
The magnitude of the fiscal crisis that governors and their states will have to face is just starting to emerge. And that crisis will affect states’ abilities to do everything from paying teachers to paving roads to providing social services.
Total state spending in 2019 was about $2.1 trillion. In national summary figures, the largest state program is Medicaid, which is about 28.9% of total spending, substantially above the 19.5% for elementary and secondary education and the 10.1% for higher education. The other major spending is for transportation, which is about 8.1%.
The remaining 33.4% is for a catch-all category of smaller programs like the environment and economic development.
On the revenue side of the equation, which is also about $2.1 trillion, the three major taxes on sales, personal income and corporate income make up 40.8% of the total. Special fees and other taxes represent 28.5%. The federal government, through grants and contracts, contributes 30.7%.
There are five key components in understanding the seriousness of the challenge to states and their governors. They reflect the complex interplay between the federal and state levels of government, commercial activity and a state’s need for money to operate and provide services:
1. Rainy day funds will quickly evaporate
Before the pandemic hit, states collectively had built-up rainy day and other surpluses of $113.2 billion — an all-time high — amounting to 13% of their general fund spending in 2019. Governors thought they were prepared for the next economic downturn.Unfortunately, these pots of money will likely be empty by the end of June. This is because sales tax revenues began crashing as early as March.
That crash is continuing through the second quarter of the year, as people stop purchasing goods because restaurants, stores and bars are closed and as individuals practice social distancing. Once the revenue from sales taxes dives, states will be forced to turn to — and ultimately deplete — their rainy day funds.
2. Revenues will collapse
The Congressional Budget Office recently released its forecast that included the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It indicated that economic activity will drop at least 7% in the second quarter and unemployment will exceed 10%.Others are far more pessimistic. James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said unemployment could reach 30% in the second quarter.
Masses of people no longer getting paychecks means a big drop in income tax
More
COVID-19 Economic Update: “No Question” US Is in a Recession
March numbers paint a grim picture of the economy, and economists look at the depth of the downturn and what a recovery could look like.
April 13, 2020
---- Stay at home has come at a dear cost to the economy,” says Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Data & Analytics, further saying the usual data sources have yet to capture the full extent of the economy’s stoppage.But March data paints a grim picture that caused several industry economists to declare the U.S. is in a recession. “We are in recession, full-stop, no question about it,” Branch says, predicting it will be “short U” shape. “Now we need to figure out the depth of the recession and what a potential recovery looks like.”
“I can quite confidently say February 2020 will be the official start of the recession,” says Ali Wolf, chief economist of Meyers Research, in an economic update webinar on April 8. She also revised her prediction from a V-shaped to a longer 16-18 month U-shaped recovery, using February as the starting point for future recession analysis. “The bad numbers are just beginning,” she warns.
The unemployment
picture is worse than many economists projected. In a three-week timeframe,
initial jobless claims tallied 16.8 million, which Wolf describes as
“depression-like” levels. Nonfarm payroll employment, which measures net job
loss by month, fell by 701,000 in March. Construction accounted for 29,000 of
those jobs and manufacturing for 18,000. (Leisure and hospitality were the
hardest hit, with a 459,000 drop.) Wolf contrasts this number to the Great
Recession, when it took 10 months of net job losses to reach that 700,000
figure.
More
"Blessed
are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt."
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing the peak of new cases, at least of the first
SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Copper’s Virus-Killing Powers Were Known Even to the Ancients
The SARS-CoV-2 virus endures for days on plastic or metal but disintegrates soon after landing on copper surfaces. Here’s why
Keevil, a microbiology researcher at the University of Southampton (U.K.), has studied the antimicrobial effects of copper for more than two decades. He has watched in his laboratory as the simple metal slew one bad bug after another. He began with the bacteria that causes Legionnaire's Disease and then turned to drug-resistant killer infections like Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). He tested viruses that caused worldwide health scares such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the Swine Flu (H1N1) pandemic of 2009. In each case, copper contact killed the pathogen within minutes. "It just blew it apart," he says.
In 2015, Keevil turned his attention to Coronavirus 229E, a relative of the COVID-19 virus that causes the common cold and pneumonia. Once again, copper zapped the virus within minutes while it remained infectious for five days on surfaces such as stainless steel or glass.
“One of the ironies is, people [install] stainless steel because it seems clean and in a way, it is,” he says, noting the material’s ubiquity in public places. “But then the argument is how often do you clean? We don’t clean often enough.” Copper, by contrast, disinfects merely by being there.
Ancient Knowledge
Keevil’s work is a modern confirmation of an ancient remedy. For thousands of years, long before they knew about germs or viruses, people have known of copper’s disinfectant powers. "Copper is truly a gift from Mother Nature in that the human race has been using it for over eight millennia," says Michael G. Schmidt, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the Medical University of South Carolina who researches copper in healthcare settings.
The first recorded use of copper as an infection-killing agent comes
from Smith's Papyrus, the oldest-known medical document in history. The information
therein has been ascribed to an Egyptian doctor circa 1700 B.C. but is based on
information that dates back as far as 3200 B.C. Egyptians designated the ankh
symbol, representing eternal life, to denote copper in hieroglyphs.
As far back as 1,600 B.C., the Chinese used copper coins as medication
to treat heart and stomach pain as well as bladder diseases. The sea-faring
Phoenicians inserted shavings from their bronze swords into battle wounds to
prevent infection. For thousands of years, women have known that their children
didn't get diarrhea as frequently when they drank from copper vessels and
passed on this knowledge to subsequent generations. "You don't need a
medical degree to diagnose diarrhea," Schmidt says.
And copper’s power lasts. Keevil’s team checked the old railings at New
York City’s Grand Central Terminal a few years ago. "The copper is still
working just like it did the day it was put in over 100 years ago," he
says. "This stuff is durable and the anti-microbial effect doesn't go away."
----Heavy metals including gold and silver are antibacterial, but copper’s specific atomic makeup gives it extra killing power, Keevil says. Copper has a free electron in its outer orbital shell of electrons that easily takes part in oxidation-reduction reactions (which also makes the metal a good conductor). As a result, Schmidt says, it becomes a “molecular oxygen grenade.” Silver and gold don’t have the free electron, so they are less reactive.
Copper kills in other ways as well, according to Keevil, who has published papers on the effect. When a microbe lands on copper, ions blast the pathogen like an onslaught of missiles, preventing cell respiration and punching holes in the cell membrane or viral coating and creating free radicals that accelerate the kill, especially on dry surfaces. Most importantly, the ions seek and destroy the DNA and RNA inside a bacteria or virus, preventing the mutations that create drug-resistant superbugs. “The properties never wear off, even if it tarnishes,” Schmidt says.
Schmidt has focused his research on the question of whether using copper alloys in often-touched surfaces reduces hospital infections. On any given day, about one in 31 hospital patients has at least one healthcare-associated infection, according to the Centers for Disease Control, costing as much as $50,000 per patient. Schmidt’s landmark study, funded by the Department of Defense, looked at copper alloys on surfaces including bedside rails, tray tables, intravenous poles, and chair armrests at three hospitals around the country. That 43-month investigation revealed a 58 percent infection reduction compared to routine infection protocols.
more
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/copper-virus-kill-180974655/?utm_source=smithsoniandaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20200414-daily-responsive&spMailingID=42264368&spUserID=NjUwNDIzNTUzNDE0S0&spJobID=1741514717&spReportId=MTc0MTUxNDcxNwS2
Spain Cases at Three-Week Low;
Austria Eases Curbs: Virus Update
Bloomberg News
April 13, 2020, 11:38 PM GMT+1 Updated on April 14, 2020,
10:17 AM GMT+1
Spain reported its fewest new coronavirus cases since March
20 and Germany reported a drop
in infections for the fifth consecutive day. Austria became one of the first
countries in Europe to ease lockdown measures.India and France extended their lockdowns and the British government is weighing similar steps. U.S. governors formed coalitions for the reopening of their economies, even as President Donald Trump insisted he alone has that authority.
Europe is seen heading for a double-digit slump amid the lockdowns and the French economy will contract 8% this year, its finance minister said. However, China’s exports and imports declined less than expected in March, in a sign that global supply chains may be adapting.
More
Coronavirus Infections Rise
Across the Globe, Nearing 2 Million Mark
By Angelica
LaVito
April 14, 2020, 12:39 AM GMT+1 Corrected April 14, 2020,
2:11 AM GMT+1
The new coronavirus has infected close to 2 million people around the
world, according to Johns Hopkins data, nearing a grim milestone that exposes
the difficulty of trying to contain the deadly pathogen.
What began as a mysterious pneumonia-like illness in Wuhan, China, late
last year has morphed into a global health crisis that has threatened health
systems and economies alike.
It took about four months for the virus to infect 1 million people, on April 3, and just over a week for that number to almost double. The total case count today is likely even higher than 2 million, with countries including the U.S. and in the developing world testing only a fraction of their populations.
Read more: The world just hit 1 million coronavirus infections
The virus, which causes the Covid-19 disease, can in some cases spread easily and quietly. People can pass it onto others before they even know they’re sick -- or without ever developing a cough or fever, the disease’s hallmarks.
More
Coronavirus: China bans two medical equipment exporters for ‘tarnishing the country’s image’
·
Two Chinese firms have been banned from selling
medical equipment after they were found to have exported defective products,
the commerce ministry says
·
Both firms started trading in medical equipment
after a sharp increase in global demand due to the global fight against the
coronavirus outbreak
Su-Lin Tan and Cissy Zhou
Published: 7:45pm, 14 Apr, 2020
Beijing has banned two companies from exporting medical equipment after
they were found to be selling poor quality products and “seriously tarnishing
China’s national image”.
Shenzhen-based Aibaoda Technology and Beijing-based Tus Data Asset, two
little known players in the medical equipment industry, will no longer be able
to export products relating to the control of Covid-19 after overseas buyers
returned their goods, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Monday.
The ban is the latest bid by China to crack down on faulty medical exports and comes amid a flurry of bad
headlines about defective masks and testing kits shipped to Europe and the
United States, which now account for more than 80 per cent of the world’s
nearly 2 million coronavirus infections.
The ministry did not offer details on the faulty
equipment sold by the two companies, but neither had worked with medical
products until recently.
Aibaoda, a 15-employee company backed by Taiwanese audiovisual firm Aipo
International, previously sold earphones, microphones and loudspeakers, while
Tus Data Asset developed blockchain technology and electronic equipment.
“We started to export masks not long ago … we were not exporting any
medical supplies other than masks,” an Aibaoda spokesman, who only gave his
surname Li, told the South China Morning Post. “We don’t manufacture
masks, we just bought the masks from somewhere else and exported them.”
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates
as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Boson particles discovery
provides insights for quantum computing
Date:
April 14, 2020
Source:
U.S. Army Research Laboratory
Summary:
Researchers have discovered a key insight for the development of quantum
devices and quantum computers. Scientists found that a class of particles known
as bosons can behave as an opposite class of particles called fermions, when
forced into a line.
Researchers working on a U.S. Army project discovered a key insight for
the development of quantum devices and quantum computers.
Scientists found that a class of particles known as bosons can behave as
an opposite class of particles called fermions, when forced into a line.
The research, conducted at Penn State University and funded in part by
the Army Research Office, an element of U.S. Army Combat Capabilities
Development Command's Army Research Laboratory, found that when the internal
interactions among bosons in a one-dimensional gas are very strong, their
velocity distribution transforms into that of a gas of non-interacting fermions
when they expand in one dimension. The research is published in the journal Science.
"The performance of atomic clocks, quantum computers and quantum
systems rely upon the proper curation of the properties of the chosen
system," said Dr. Paul Baker, program manager, atomic and molecular
physics at ARO. "This research effort demonstrates that the system
statistics can be altered by properly constraining the dimensions of the
system. In addition to furthering our understanding of foundational principles,
this discovery could provide a method for dynamically switching a system from
bosonic to fermionic to best meet the military need."
The researchers experimentally demonstrated that, when bosons expand in
one dimension -- the line of atoms is allowed spread out to become longer --
they can form a Fermi sea.
"All particles in nature come in one of two types, depending on
their spin, a quantum property with no real analogue in classical
physics," said David Weiss, Distinguished Professor of Physics at Penn
State and one of the leaders of the research team. "Bosons, whose spins
are whole integers, can share the same quantum state, while fermions, whose
spins are half integers, cannot. When the particles are cold or dense enough,
bosons behave completely differently from fermions. Bosons form Bose-Einstein
condensates, congregating in the same quantum state. Fermions, on the other
hand, fill available states one by one to form what is called a Fermi
sea."
More
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators
finished March
DJIA: 21,917 +45 Down. NASDAQ: 7,700 +149 Down.
SP500: 2,585 +38 Down.
The NASDAQ and S&P have
joined the DJIA in down. All three monthly slow indexes have collapsed.
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