Baltic Dry Index. 557 -19 Brent Crude 60.69 Spot Gold 1572
Never ending Brexit now January 31. 7 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October
18. Now in effect.
“I can live with doubt and
uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not
knowing than to have answers that might be wrong.”
Given China’s previous record with the
SARS outbreak in 2002 – 2003, when the authorities in China were slow to react,
covered up the extent of the problem, and downplayed the number of deaths and
patients, until eventually due to the scale of the problem they were forced to
fire the Health Minister and Mayor of Beijing, many experts are again sceptical
of China’s corona-virus story so far.
The BBC has reported, (I know, is that
true or did you hear it on the BBC,) that the first cases were known about in
the first few days of December, though they weren’t reported until December 31.
Given a 5 to 14 day speculated incubation period, the onset could be as early
as mid to late November.
Isolating Wuhan and other cities starting
just this week, means that this new corona-virus has had plenty of time to
spread widely in China, and more widely in southeast Asia.
To avoid a major health event now, requires
that the new virus has a low infection rate, and has for most, a low severity
rate. More common cold than severe flu. We
are likely to know by the end of February.
If the worst happens, this new virus
will become very disruptive to the global economy. Oil, copper, the Baltic Dry
Index, and gold, are all starting to indicate a rising fear to the global
economy.
“As far as the laws of
mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are
certain, they do not refer to reality.”
China virus death toll rises to 41, more than 1,300 infected worldwide
January 25, 2020 / 12:07 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - The death toll from
China’s coronavirus outbreak jumped on Saturday to 41 from 26 a day earlier as
the Lunar New Year got off to a gloomy start, with authorities curbing travel
and cancelling public gatherings.
More than
1,300 people have been infected globally with a virus traced to a seafood
market in the central city of Wuhan that was illegally selling wildlife. Health
authorities around the world are scrambling to prevent a pandemic.
State-run
China Global Television Network reported in a tweet on Saturday that a doctor
who had been treating patients in Wuhan, 62-year-old Liang Wudong, had died
from the virus.
It was not
immediately clear if his death was already counted in the official toll of 41,
of which 39 were in the central province of Hubei, where Wuhan is located.
U.S. coffee
chain Starbucks said on Saturday that it was closing all its outlets in Hubei province
for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, following a similar move by
McDonald’s in five Hubei cities.
Wuhan, a
city of 11 million, has been in virtual lockdown since Thursday, with nearly
all flights at the airport canceled and checkpoints blocking the main roads
leading out of town. Authorities have since imposed transport restrictions on
nearly all of Hubei province, which has a population of 59 million.
---- The number of confirmed cases in China stands at 1,287, the National Health Commission said on Saturday.
The virus
has also been detected in Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan, South Korea,
Taiwan, Nepal, Malaysia, France, the United States and Australia.
More
UK Researcher Predicts Over 250,000 Chinese Will Have Coronavirus In Ten Days
by Tyler
Durden
Fri, 01/24/2020 - 18:12
When it comes to estimating the human capital and potential fallout from a highly contagious epidemic, arguably the most important variable is the R0 ("R-naught") value of the disease, which represents the average number of secondary cases arising from an average primary case in a entirely susceptible population. That's the technical definition, a simpler one is that the R0, or basic reproductive number, of a contagious disease is the number of cases that a case of the disease generates over the course of its infectious period in a susceptible population. The higher this number, the more dangerous the disease, the more lethal the outcome.
Some indicative R0s are 0.9 – 2.1 for the common flu while the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu was estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2. Some other notable R0s are shown below, and note that SARS was between 2 and 5:
----So what about the R0 of 2019-nCoV, also known as the coronavirus that has claimed over three dozen lives in China and infected (at least) 1,000 people? Naturally, since the disease is most active in China which is notoriously opaque especially when it comes to matters that can cause a mass panic, the best one can do is guess, and that's what the World Health Organization did yesterday when it issued a statement on the coronavirus epidemic with the following projection:
In "Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions", Reed et al, write that with an R0 of between 3.6 and 4.0, roughly 72-75% of transmissions "must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing."
This is a major problem because Reed estimates that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan are identified (as of Jan 24), "indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease." Furthermore, since all of this is happening in China which is not known for making the most socially-beneficial decisions under pressure, there is an ominous possibility that Reed is actually overly optimistic.
Needless to say, while 2.5 is quite high, and in line with that of the Spanish flu epidemic which infected about half a billion people back in 1918, killing as many as 100 million before it eventually fizzled out, the real coronavirus R0 number may end up being far higher. That is the working hypothesis of Jonathan Read, a UK expert on the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases, who has published a paper with four colleagues that estimates transmission parameters for the Wuhan coronavirus, calculates that the R0 of 2019-nCoV to be between 3.6-4.0 or roughly the same as SARS, and reaches a conclusion about spread of the coronavirus epidemic that is frankly terrifying.
After Wuhan, the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China are expected to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu.
Reed also predicts that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, USA, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia and Vietnam. In short: much of Asia will infected, and from there, the rest of the world awaits.
More
Shanghai Disney shuts to prevent spread of virus
January 24, 2020 / 6:45 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Walt Disney Co’s
Shanghai Disney Resort will be closed until further notice to help China stop
the spread of a flu-like virus, costing the theme park operator revenue during
the country’s biggest holiday season.
China is on
a seven-day Lunar New Year holiday, a period when the Shanghai Disney park
would be usually packed with tourists. Last year Shanghai Disney had to stop
selling tickets to visitors as the park got overcrowded.
“In response
to the prevention and control of the disease outbreak and in order to ensure
the health and safety of our guests and Cast, Shanghai Disney Resort is
temporarily closing Shanghai Disneyland, Disneytown ... starting Jan. 25,” the
company said on its website.
“We will
continue to carefully monitor the situation and ... announce the reopening date
upon confirmation.”
---- The outbreak has already prompted seven Chinese films that were set to premiere during the holiday to postpone screenings, forgoing what is usually the best week of the year at the Chinese box office.
Disney said
it would refund tickets for admission to Shanghai Disneyland, on China’s east
coast, more than 800 km from Wuhan, or other services at the park as well as
hotel bookings.
The
estimated financial impact on the U.S. company’s first theme park in mainland
China, which opened in mid-2016 in its largest overseas investment at $5.5
billion, was not immediately clear.
The company
was not immediately available to comment.
Shanghai
Disney carried out a resort-wide makeover this month for a four-week event
through Feb. 9 to celebrate the Year of the Rat with its characters including
Mickey Mouse and Minnie Mouse and target China’s middle class and booming
domestic tourism.
Walt Disney
Co owns a 43% stake in Shanghai Disney Resort which has Shanghai Disneyland
theme park and two hotels with a total of 1,220 rooms.
The impact
on businesses is set to increase as China discourages locals from gathering in
crowded places. It has already stepped up measures to contain the virus, with
public transport suspensions in 10 cities, the shutting of temples and closing
the Forbidden City, Beijing’s most famous tourist attraction.
Japan’s Fast
Retailing Co Ltd said on Friday it has temporarily closed 17 Uniqlo stores in
Wuhan. China is a key growth market for the company which faces a saturated
market and weak consumer spending in Japan.
Starbucks shuts shops, suspends delivery in China's Hubei amid virus outbreak
January 25, 2020 / 4:53 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - Starbucks has closed all shops and suspended delivery services in
China’s Hubei province for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, where a
coronavirus outbreak originated from its capital Wuhan has caused 41 deaths in
China.
Starbucks
said on Saturday that the move is out of “health concerns” for its customers
and employees, according to a post on China’s twitter-like Weibo. The central
province of Hubei is home to nearly 60 million people.
Oil Posts Worst Week in a Year as Virus Selloff Deepens
By Jacqueline Davalos
Updated on January 24, 2020, 9:39 PM GMT
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