Baltic Dry Index. 907 -69 Brent Crude 69.55 Spot Gold 1579
Never ending Brexit now January 31.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
“The game has changed.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper
Monday morning update 6:30 am.
Is President Trump talking himself into a new Middle East
war? For now, both the oil and gold markets are reacting as if the answer is
yes.
However if a new Middle East war actually starts, I would
expect oil to double from today’s price, gold to surge into the 2000s, and a
great wave of profit taking to hit global stock markets, still churning away
near ten year highs.
Below, the latest developments.
In his address to
parliament on Sunday, Mr. Abdul-Mahdi said he had been due to meet Gen.
Soleimani at 8:30 a.m. on the morning he was killed as he left Baghdad
International airport. Mr. Abdul-Mahdi said Gen. Soleimani was carrying Iran’s
response to a message Iraq had conveyed on behalf of Saudi Arabia aimed at
easing tensions between the two countries in the region.
Iraq wants foreign troops out
after air strike; Trump threatens sanctions
January 5, 2020 /
10:07 AM
BAGHDAD/WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Iraq’s parliament called on Sunday for U.S. and other foreign
troops to leave as a backlash grows against the U.S. killing of a top Iranian
general, and President Donald Trump doubled down on threats to target Iranian
cultural sites if Tehran retaliates.
Deepening
a crisis that has heightened fears of a major Middle East conflagration, Iran
said it was taking another step back from commitments under a 2015 nuclear deal
with six major powers.
----
An Iranian government minister denounced Trump as a “terrorist in a suit” after
the U.S. president sent a series of Twitter posts on Saturday threatening to
hit 52 Iranian sites, including targets important to Iranian culture, if Tehran
attacks Americans or U.S. assets to avenge Soleimani’s death.
Talking to reporters aboard Air Force One on the way to Washington from
Florida on Sunday evening, Trump stood by those comments.
“They’re allowed to kill our people. They’re allowed to torture and maim
our people. They’re allowed to use roadside bombs and blow up our people. And
we’re not allowed to touch their cultural sites? It doesn’t work that way,” he
said.
Democratic critics of the Republican president have said Trump was
reckless in authorizing the strike, and some said his comments about targeting
cultural sites amounted to threats to commit war crimes. Many asked why
Soleimani, long seen as a threat by U.S. authorities, had to be killed now.
---- Trump also threatened sanctions against Iraq and said that if U.S. troops were required to leave the country, Iraq’s government would have to pay Washington for the cost of a “very extraordinarily expensive” air base there.
He said if Iraq asked U.S. forces to leave on an unfriendly basis, “we
will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before ever. It’ll make
Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame.”
---- The Iraqi parliament passed a resolution calling for an end to all foreign troop presence, reflecting the fears of many in Iraq that Friday’s strike could engulf them in another war between two bigger powers long at odds in Iraq and across the region.
While such resolutions are not binding on the government, this one is
likely to be heeded: Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi had earlier called on
parliament to end foreign troop presence as soon as possible.
More
Iran's missile forces at
heightened state of alert - U.S. official
January 5, 2020
/ 9:33 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has detected a heightened state
of alert by Iran’s missile forces across the country, a U.S. official told
Reuters on Sunday, adding it was unclear whether the higher readiness level was
defensive in nature or not.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not provide
further details or say whether the Iranian missiles were taking aim at any
specific targets, amid threats by Tehran of retaliation over a U.S. drone
strike last week that killed a top Iranian general.
“They’re clearly at a heightened state of alert. Is that heightened
state of alert to be better prepared defensively or to be better prepared
offensively? That can’t be determined at this point,” the official said.
Gold, oil soar, shares slip as U.S. and Iran trade threats
January 5, 2020 /
11:39 PM
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - A gauge of Asian shares was toppled from an 18-month top on Monday
as heightened Middle East tensions sent investors scurrying for the safety of
gold, which hit a near seven-year high while oil jumped to four-month peaks.
The United States detected a heightened state of alert by Iran’s missile
forces, as President Donald Trump warned the U.S. would strike back, “perhaps
in a disproportionate manner,” if Iran attacked any American person or target.
Iraq’s parliament on Sunday recommended all foreign troops be ordered
out of the country after the U.S. killing of a top Iranian military commander
and an Iraqi militia leader.
Spot gold XAU= surged 1.5% to $1,579.55 per ounce in jittery trade and
reached its highest since April 2013.
Oil prices added to their gains on fears any conflict in the region
could disrupt global supplies.
More
Soleimani Killing Leaves Trump’s
Middle East Strategy in Tatters
By Nick Wadhams and David Wainer Updated on January 6, 2020, 6:01 AM GMT President Donald Trump and his top aides spent the weekend arguing that the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani would deter future attacks and help make the Middle East safer.
Instead, U.S. policy in the region seems to be going in the opposite direction of what Trump has long promised -- with more U.S. troops going in, not fewer; an Iran defiant, not cowed and broken by sanctions; and regional allies giving only lukewarm support to Trump’s airstrike instead of rallying around it.
The blows continued on Sunday, when Iraq’s parliament called on U.S. troops to withdraw from the country after denouncing the drone strike as a violation of its sovereignty. Trump responded by saying Iraq would have to “reimburse” America. The same day, Iran said it would abandon limits on uranium enrichment put in place as part of a 2015 nuclear agreement that Trump withdrew from in 2018.
Dow logs worst day in 4 weeks, amid rising Middle East tensions and weak U.S. factory data
By William
Watts and Sunny
Oh
Published: Jan 4, 2020 9:05 a.m. ET
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.81% shed 233.92 points, or 0.8%, at 28,634.8. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.71% fell 23 points, or 0.7%, to 3,234.85. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.79% slipped 71.42 points, or 0.8%, to 9,020.77. All three benchmarks finished off their lows for the session, however.
The decline marked the worst for the Dow and the S&P 500 since Dec. 3 and the sharpest daily slump for the Nasdaq since Dec. 2, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.2%, while the Dow shed less than 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, managed a weekly gain of 0.2%.
More
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-drop-over-300-points-as-us-iran-tensions-escalate-2020-01-03?mod=home-page
Finally, Reuters provides an explanation for that
assassination. But who provided it to Reuters and for what purpose?
Taken at face value, it provides reasonable cover, but
can it be taken at face value? Who knows? We haven’t had truth in the Middle
East for decades. It does seem inconsistent with the account Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi gave to the Iraq Parliament.
Presented below at face value, but is it enough to head off a Great War, from Lebanon-Israel all the way out to Afghanistan?
Presented below at face value, but is it enough to head off a Great War, from Lebanon-Israel all the way out to Afghanistan?
Let’s hope so. Such a large war would require a new draft
in America and conscription in GB. Not how we want to start the 2020s with a
roaring new Great War.
Inside the plot by Iran’s Soleimani to attack U.S. forces in Iraq
January 4, 2020 /
1:03 AM
(Reuters)
- In mid-October, Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani met with his Iraqi
Shi’ite militia allies at a villa on the banks of the Tigris River, looking
across at the U.S. embassy complex in Baghdad.
The Revolutionary Guards commander instructed his top ally in Iraq, Abu
Mahdi al-Muhandis, and other powerful militia leaders to step up attacks on
U.S. targets in the country using sophisticated new weapons provided by Iran,
two militia commanders and two security sources briefed on the gathering told
Reuters.
The strategy session, which has not been previously reported, came as
mass protests against Iran’s growing influence in Iraq were gaining momentum,
putting the Islamic Republic in an unwelcome spotlight. Soleimani’s plans to
attack U.S. forces aimed to provoke a military response that would redirect
that rising anger toward the United States, according to the sources briefed on
the gathering, Iraqi Shi’ite politicians and government officials close to
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi.
Soleimani’s efforts ended up provoking the U.S. attack on Friday that
killed him and Muhandis, marking a major escalation of tensions between the
United States and Iran. The two men died in air strikes on their convoy at a
Baghdad airport as they headed to the capital, dealing a major blow to the
Islamic Republic and the Iraqi paramilitary groups it supports.
Interviews with the Iraqi security sources and Shi’ite militia
commanders offer a rare glimpse of how Soleimani operated in Iraq, which he
once told a Reuters reporter he knew like the back of his hand.
Two weeks before the October meeting, Soleimani ordered Iranian
Revolutionary Guards to move more sophisticated weapons - such as Katyusha
rockets and shoulder-fired missiles that could bring down helicopters - to Iraq
through two border crossings, the militia commanders and Iraqi security sources
told Reuters.
At the Baghdad villa, Soleimani told the assembled commanders to
form a new militia group of low-profile paramilitaries - unknown to the United
States - who could carry out rocket attacks on Americans housed at Iraqi
military bases. He ordered Kataib Hezbollah - a force founded by
Muhandis and
trained in Iran - to direct the new plan, said the militia sources briefed on
the meetings.
Soleimani told them such a group “would be difficult to detect by the
Americans,” one of the militia sources told Reuters.
More
War is cruelty. There is no use trying to reform it. The crueler
it is, the sooner it will be over.
William Tecumseh Sherman
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, trouble in the US, Canadian and Mexican economies. For the USA
blame big bad Boeing and old King coal, for a large part. For Canada and
Mexico, blame Trump’s tariffs and “NAFTA 2.0” still not in effect. Well
perhaps, but it could be a sign of something more.
U.S. factory sector in deepest slump in more than 10 years
January 3, 2020 /
6:19 PM
(Reuters)
- The U.S. manufacturing sector fell into its deepest slump in more than a
decade in December as the U.S.-China trade war kept a lid on factory output,
orders and employment, although the long-awaited Phase 1 deal between
Washington and Beijing could limit further downside.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 47.2 last month from 48.1 in November. It was the lowest reading since June 2009 and, coupled with readings for both new orders and factory employment at multi-year lows, thwarted expectations for a levelling off in the pace of decline in a sector buffeted by trade tensions.
A reading below 50 indicates the sector is in contraction, and December’s reading marked the fifth straight month below that benchmark level. Economists polled by Reuters had been looking for an increase to 49.0.
The manufacturing sector had been under pressure for much of the second half of 2019, as tit-for-tat tariffs by the United States and China slowed the flow of goods between the world’s two largest economies and contributed to a cooling in the pace of global economic growth.
Last month, the two sides announced they had reached agreement on a Phase 1 deal, and U.S. President Donald Trump this week said the accord would be signed on Jan. 15 in Washington, and talks to cement a wider Phase 2 deal would begin shortly.
“Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue, but there are signs that several industry sectors will improve as a result of the Phase 1 trade agreement,” Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement.
In addition to the drag from trade frictions, Boeing Co’s (BA.N) inability to get its 737 Max jetliner back in service may have been a factor, especially in the transportation equipment industry, which was the weakest of the six big industry sectors, according to Fiore. Boeing will cease production of the plane this month until regulators allow it to resume flying in the wake of two crashes, and that could be a headwind in the coming months that may counter improvements arising elsewhere from the trade deal.
More
Rail Traffic Continues To Plunge Amid Industrial Recession
Fri, 01/03/2020 - 18:05
US freight railroads have long been used as a barometer of
the country's economic health, continue to show declines in traffic, suggesting
the industrial recession could persist into 2020. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) published a new report that shows US weekly rail traffic for the week ending December 21 was down 10.5% to 507,589 carloads and intermodal units compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week were 245,048 carloads, down 11.5% compared with the same week in 2018, while weekly intermodal volume was down 9.5% to 262,541 containers and trailers.
The AAR tracks ten carload commodity groups on a weekly basis -- with Petroleum and Petroleum Products and Other segments showed marginal growth over the week as all other segments including Chemicals; Coal; Farm Products excl. Grain, and Food; Forest Products, Grain, Metallic Ores and Metals; Motor Vehicles and Parts; and Nonmetallic Minerals registered declines.
For the first 51 weeks of 2019, US rail traffic across all segments was
12,780,814 carloads, down 4.8% from the same period last year; and 13,550,432
intermodal units, down 5.1% from last year. Total rail traffic in the first 51
weeks was 26,331,246 carloads and intermodal units, a 5.9% drop over last year.
Canadian and Mexican railroads also reported traffic declines for the
week and in the first 51 weeks as both countries are teetering if not already
in a recession.
More
It is my conviction that killing under the cloak of war is
nothing but an act of murder.
Albert Einstein
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Brain imaging breakthrough predicts Alzheimer's decline in early stages
Rich Haridy January 02, 2020
Utilizing
a recently developed brain imaging technique new research suggests that
measuring accumulated levels of a protein called tau may predict future
neurodegeneration associated with Alzihemer’s disease. The discovery promises
to accelerate clinical trial research offering a novel way to predict the
progression of the disease before major symptoms appear.
Exactly what occurs in the human brain during the earliest stages of Alzheimer’s disease remains quite a mystery for dementia researchers. While studies have homed in on several pathological signs signaling moderate to severe cases of Alzheimer’s, it’s still unclear what the initial triggers for the disease are, and without this vital information scientists are struggling to generate effective drugs and treatments to slow or prevent the disease.
The two big pathological signs of Alzheimer’s most researchers agree on are accumulations of amyloid and tau proteins in the brain. Abnormal aggregations of amyloid proteins, into what are referred to as plaques, are generally considered to be the primary causative mechanism behind Alzheimer’s. Masses of misfolding tau proteins, forming what are known as neurofibrillary tangles, are also seen in the disease.
So what comes first? The amyloid plaques or the tau tangles?
This question has been the source of great debate amongst researchers for a number of years. The overriding consensus has been amyloid aggregations come before the tau tangles. One researcher even used the analogy of tau being a bullet, but amyloid is the trigger, with its plaques activating the conversion of tau to a toxic state.
----Positron emission tomography (PET) is one of the best tools researchers currently have at their disposal to image different protein accumulations in the brain. Until recently it was almost impossible to clearly identify tau aggregations in a living human brain, however, a recently developed imaging agent called flortaucipir has been nothing short of a game-changer.
Over the last few years researchers have increasingly found flortaucipir PET imaging to effectively measure tau levels in living patients. This breakthrough has subsequently led to studies examining tau levels in brains at the very earliest stages of Alzheimer’s disease. For the first time researchers can now evaluate this chicken or the egg conundrum, and UC San Francisco scientists are suggesting tau levels effectively precede Alzheimer’s-related neurodegeneration.
The new study recruited 32 subjects with early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease. Every subject received two bouts of PET imaging around 15 months apart, tracking both amyloid and tau levels in the brain. The primary goal was to evaluate whether amyloid or tau better predicted subsequent brain atrophy and disease progression.
“The match between the spread of tau and what happened to the brain in
the following year was really striking,” says Gil Rabinovici, leader of the PET
imaging program at the UCSF Memory and Aging Center. “Tau PET imaging predicted
not only how much atrophy we would see, but also where it would happen. These predictions
were much more powerful than anything we’ve been able to do with other imaging
tools, and add to evidence that tau is a major driver of the disease.”
Unfortunately, this new discovery will not directly translate into wide
clinical diagnostic applications. This kind of PET imaging is expensive and
time-consuming, so it cannot easily be deployed by doctors as part of a routine
health check-up. But, for researchers, this discovery should significantly help
accelerate clinical trials investigating prospective new drug treatments.
“Tau PET could be an extremely valuable precision medicine tool for future clinical trials,” says Rabinovici. “The ability to sensitively track tau accumulation in living patients would for the first time let clinical researchers seek out treatments that can slow down or even prevent the specific pattern of brain atrophy predicted for each patient.”
The new research was published in the journal Science Translational Medicine.
In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be
attended by a bodyguard of lies.
Winston Churchill
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December
DJIA: 28,538 +91 Up. NASDAQ: 8,973 +125 Up.
SP500: 3,231 +114 Up.
All higher again, but it’s
not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a
rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock
bubble as an exit rally.
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