Baltic Dry Index. 729 -25 Brent Crude 64.74 Spot Gold 1566
Never ending Brexit now January 31. 10 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
“We cannot have free and open trade if some
countries exploit the system at the expense of others.”
President Trump, Davos 2018.
In sky high Davos today, it’s the Trump and Thunberg hot
air show, with Greta taking the stage twice to President Trump’s once.
The big question on all the assembled preachy billionaires
minds, just how far apart are the two “Ts” views of the planet’s future, and
will they finally meet?
In Washington, its day one or two of the Great Trump Impeachment
trial, depending on whether yesterday counted as day one.
In Paris, President Macron has announced a truce with
President Trump over tariffs, but will President Trump stick to it?
But we open with the usual update from Asia. The new
coronavirus is sickening local markets as China heads off for Saturday’s Lunar
New Year celebrations.
Asia shares feel a chill as China virus risks mount
January 21, 2020
/ 12:35 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares took a sudden turn for the worse on
Tuesday as mounting concerns about a new strain of coronavirus in China sent a
ripple of risk aversion through markets.
Safe-haven bonds and the yen edged higher as investors were reminded of
the economic damage done by the SARS virus in 2003, particularly given the
threat of contagion as hundreds of millions travel for the Lunar New Year
holidays.
“It’s an essential enough development that markets will monitor it on
the risk radar as, if things turn critical, it could provide a massive blow to
the airline industry and a knockout punch to local tourism,” said Stephen
Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiCorp.
The mood swing saw MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside
Japan slip 1% after a steady start. Hong Kong, which suffered badly during the
SARS outbreak, saw its index fall 2%.
More
Bank of Japan holds interest rates in negative territory and stocks fall on news
By MarketWatch
Published: Jan 20, 2020 11:02 p.m. ET
The Bank of Japan kept its policy unchanged on Tuesday and said it
expects the government’s fiscal stimulus to help the economy grow slightly
faster than previously projected. The BOJ’s policy board decided to keep its
short-term deposit rate at minus 0.1% and its target for 10-year Japanese
government bond yields at around zero.
In its quarterly report, the BOJ’s policy board said it expects the
economy to grow 0.8% in the year ending March 2020, compared with a forecast of
0.6% in the previous report in October. It expects 0.9% expansion in the year
ending March 2021, compared with an earlier forecast of 0.7%.
China stocks were hard hit early Tuesday. Hong Kong was taking the worst of it, with the Hang HSI, -2.47% ndex down nearly 2% in early trading after Moody’s downgraded the territory’s credit rating. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.24% was off 1.0% and the Shenzhen Composite 399106, -1.05% was 0.8% lower.
A widening outbreak of a mysterious pneumonia-like virus helped propel shares of some Chinese drugmakers to multiyear highs, while travel stocks fell, as investors made bets on the potential economic impact of the disease in the region.
More
Thunberg, Trump to offer competing visions at climate-focused Davos
Issued on: 21/01/2020 - 04:52Modified: 21/01/2020 - 04:50
The starkly opposed visions of US President Donald Trump and Swedish
teen activist Greta Thunberg on climate change will clash in Davos on Tuesday
as the World Economic Forum tries to face up to the perils of global warming on
its 50th meeting.
The four-day gathering of the world's top political and business leaders
in the Swiss Alps gets under way seeking to meet head-on the dangers to both
the environment and economy from the heating of the planet.
Trump, who has repeatedly expressed scepticism about climate change, is
set to give the first keynote address of Davos 2020 on Tuesday morning, on the
same day as his impeachment trial opens at the Senate in Washington.
Around the same time, Thunberg will also attend a meeting at the forum,
where she is expected to underline the message that has inspired millions
around the world -- that governments are failing to wake up to the reality of
climate change.
The forum's own Global Risks report published last week warned that
"climate change is striking harder and more rapidly than many
expected" with global temperatures on track to increase by at least three
degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) towards the end of the century.
There are no expectations that the two, who have exchanged barbs through
Twitter, will actually meet, but the crowded venue and intense schedule mean a
chance encounter cannot be ruled out.
----Trump's opposition to renewable energy, his withdrawal from the Paris climate accord negotiated under his predecessor Barack Obama, and the free hand extended to the fossil fuel industry puts him at odds with the entire thrust of the event.
"Climate change is a hot topic at Davos," said Chris
Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, adding there had been a
"change in the atmosphere" and realisation that climate change
represented a downside risk for the economy.
EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said at a welcome ceremony in
Davos that "for too long, humanity took away resources from the
environment and in exchange produced waste and pollution".
Business leaders attending the forum will be keen to tout their
awareness on climate change but are likely also to be concerned by the state of
the global economy whose prospects, according to the IMF, have improved but
remain brittle.
More
Macron and Trump declare truce in digital tax dispute
by Reuters
Monday, 20 January 2020 23:17 GMT
PARIS, Jan 20 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron said on
Monday he had a "great discussion" with U.S. President Donald Trump
over a digital tax planned by Paris and said the two countries would work
together to avoid a rise in tariffs.
Macron and Trump agreed to hold off on a potential tariffs war until the
end of 2020, a French diplomatic source said, and continue negotiations at the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on the digital tax
during that period.
"They agreed to give a chance to negotiations until the end of the
year," the source said. "During that time period, there won't be
successive tariffs."
France decided in July to apply a 3% levy on revenue from digital
services earned in France by firms with revenues of more than 25 million euros
($28 million) in France and 750 million euros worldwide. Washington has
threatened to impose taxes on French products in response.
French authorities have repeatedly said any international agreement on
digital taxation reached within the OECD would immediately supersede the French
tax.
The White House said on Monday both Trump and Macron agreed it is
important to complete successful negotiations on the digital services tax.
Trump lawyers call for immediate acquittal in legal, political defence
January 20, 2020 /
10:04 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday rejected the Democratic-led
House of Representatives’ impeachment charges and called for their immediate
dismissal by the Republican-led Senate in a memo offering a legal and political
case against his removal.
The 116-page Trial Memorandum sought to undercut charges that the
Republican president abused his power and obstructed Congress, and constituted
Trump’s first comprehensive defence before his Senate trial begins in earnest
on Tuesday.
“The Senate should reject the Articles of Impeachment and acquit the
president immediately,” the memo concluded.
Separately, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell put forward rules
that could lead to a quick impeachment trial for Trump, with no guarantee that
witnesses or new evidence would be allowed.
Under the resolution, which could face a vote as early as Tuesday,
lawyers for Trump could move early in the proceedings to ask senators to
dismiss all charges, a senior Republican leadership aide said, a motion that
would likely fail.
Under the Republican proposal, the Senate would have to vote later on
whether to even allow materials collected by the House during its impeachment
investigation to be admitted as part of the trial.
More
Next Brexit news. Despite Brexit, job transfers work both
ways. Who knew, certainly not the hopeless ex-Chancellor Hammond, nor the
dreadful ex-Prime Minister May.
A thousand EU financial firms plan to open UK offices after Brexit
January 20, 2020 /
12:39 AM
LONDON (Reuters) -
More than a thousand banks, asset managers, payments companies and insurers in
the European Union plan to open offices in post-Brexit Britain so they can
continue serving UK clients, regulatory consultancy Bovill said on Monday.
The new offices and staff will help mitigate the loss of business going
the other way as the current unfettered two-way direct access between Britain
and the EU comes to an end in December following a Brexit transition period.
As a first step, the companies, who until now have been able to serve UK
customers directly from their home base, have applied for temporary permission
to operate in Britain after Jan. 31 when the UK leaves the bloc, Bovill said,
using figures obtained from Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority.
“These figures clearly show that many firms see the UK as Europe’s
premier financial services hub,” said Michael Johnson, a consultant at Bovill.
More than 300 financial firms in Britain have opened EU hubs to continue
serving clients in the bloc after Brexit, according to a recent survey from New
Financial think tank.
The extent of access to each other’s markets after December is subject
to negotiations between the EU and Britain, but even the best case scenario is
unlikely to cover the full range of financial services.
Bovill said 228 firms from Ireland had applied for temporary permission
to keep serving UK clients until they obtain full authorization for a new UK
hub.
Dublin is also a popular location for UK-based insurers and asset
managers that need an EU hub, reflecting the strong ties between the two
countries.
Firms from France, Cyprus and Germany have applied for 170, 165 and 149
temporary permissions respectively, the consultancy said.
“In
practical terms, these figures mean that European firms will be buying office
space, hiring staff and engaging legal and professional advisers in the UK,”
Bovill said.
In Boeing news, the
bad news just never seems to stop. Shareholder lawsuits next?
Boeing is in talks to borrow $10 billion or more as 737 Max crisis wears on
The company has secured at least $6 billion from banks so far, the people said, and is talking to other lenders for more contributions. The total amount could rise if there is additional demand from banks, one person familiar with the matter said.
Liquidity isn’t an immediate concern, analysts have said, but the new debt shows Boeing is shoring up its finances amid the cash-sapping fallout of the two crashes — one in Indonesia in October 2018 and another in Ethiopia in March last year — that killed all 346 people aboard the two flights.
The amount Boeing is seeking to borrow is more than what some analysts were expecting. For example, Jefferies earlier this month forecast Boeing would issue $5 billion in debt this quarter.
But the jets’ return has faced potential new delays that are threatening to drive up Boeing’s costs, including a new software issue disclosed by the company last week.
Boeing this month suspended production of the troubled planes this month as the grounding stretches into its 11th month, a planned pause in production that has rippled through the supply chain and already cost thousands of jobs. However, Boeing earlier this month said it didn’t plan to lay off 737 Max workers and said they would be reassigned to other functions.
The company also reversed its stance and will now recommend pilots undergo simulator training, a time-consuming and costly process, before the jets can fly again.
The company posted negative orders for aircraft last year, its weakest sales figures in decades, and handed the title of the world’s biggest aircraft manufacturer over to its European rival Airbus.
----Moody’s Investors Service last week said it was putting Boeing’s credit rating, which is investment grade, on review for a potential downgrade due to the Max issues.
“Recent developments suggest a more costly and protracted recovery for
Boeing to restore confidence with its various market constituents, and an
ensuing period of heightened operational and financial risk, even if
certification of the Max comes relatively near-term, as expected,” wrote
Jonathan Root, Moody’s lead Boeing analyst.
Boeing had about $25 billion in total debt at the end of the last
quarter, up from around $19 billion at the start of the three-month period, the
company said.
More
Finally, Canada has unwisely got itself caught between a
USA rock and a China hard place. Perhaps Canada could adopt the “highly
inappropriate,” response, it is, after all, a political case as suggested by no
less than President Trump.
China repeats call on Canada to release Huawei CFO Meng
January 20, 2020
/ 7:54 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China repeated its call on Monday for Canada to
release detained Huawei Technologies Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou as
soon as possible, ahead of the executive’s first extradition hearing later in
the day.
“The resolve of the Chinese government to protect Chinese citizens’
proper legal rights is firm and unwavering,” foreign ministry spokesman, Geng
Shuang, told reporters during a daily briefing. He called Meng’s case a
“serious political matter”.
Meng, daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, was arrested at Vancouver
International Airport on Dec. 1, 2018, at the request of the United States,
where she is charged with bank fraud and accused of misleading the bank HSBC
about Huawei Technologies’ business in Iran.
Meng has said she is innocent and is fighting extradition.
Her arrest infuriated the Chinese government, which subsequently
detained two Canadian citizens - Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor - on state
security charges. International observers have called the cases against Kovrig
and Spavor retaliation for Meng’s detention.
U.K. Seeks Extradition of Anne Sacoolas Over Teen’s Death Crash
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
January 11, 2020, 10:41 AM GMT
London (AP) -- Britain has sparked a diplomatic standoff with Washington
by requesting the extradition of a U.S. woman charged over a road crash that
killed a U.K. teenager.
The British government said late Friday it had formally asked for Anne
Sacoolas to be sent to the U.K. to face a charge of causing death by dangerous
driving. The U.S. State Department called the request “highly inappropriate”
because it says Sacoolas had diplomatic immunity at the time of the crash.
More
“Diversity isn’t just sound, social policy. Diversity is the engine of invention — it generates creativity that enriches the world.”
“We can embrace
diversity and the new ideas that spring from it, while simultaneously fostering
a shared identity and shared values in safe, stable communities that work.”
Justin Trudeau,
Davos 2016.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, capitalism. Not that we have capitalism anymore. That ended
August 15, 1971 in the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money.
What we have now, is central bankster socialism of the one percent. It probably
gets a lot worse before some great crisis prompts a capitalist reset.
Capitalism seen doing 'more harm than good' in global survey
January 20, 2020
/ 5:09 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - A majority of people
around the world believe capitalism in its current form is doing more harm than
good, a survey found ahead of this week’s Davos meeting of business and
political leaders.
This year was the first time the “Edelman Trust Barometer”, which for
two decades has polled tens of thousands of people on their trust in core
institutions, sought to understand how capitalism itself was viewed.
The study’s authors said that earlier surveys showing a rising sense of
inequality prompted them to ask whether citizens were now starting to have more
fundamental doubts about the capitalist-based democracies of the West.
“The answer is yes,” David Bersoff, lead researcher on the study
produced by U.S. communications company Edelman.
“People are questioning at that level whether what we have today, and
the world we live in today, is optimized for their having a good future.”
The poll contacted over 34,000 people in 28 countries, from Western
liberal democracies like the United States and France to those based on a
different model such as China and Russia, with 56% agreeing that “capitalism as
it exists today does more harm than good in the world”.
The survey was launched in 2000 to explore the theories of political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who after the collapse of communism declared that liberal capitalist democracy had seen off rival ideologies and so represented “the end of history”.
That conclusion has since been challenged by critics who point to everything from the rising influence of China to the spread of autocratic leaders, trade protectionism and worsening inequality in the wake of the 2007/08 global financial crisis.
‘INTO THE VOID’
On a national level, lack of trust in capitalism was highest in Thailand and India on 75% and 74% respectively, with France close behind on 69%. Majorities prevailed in other Asian, European, Gulf, African and Latin American states.Only in Australia, Canada, the United States, South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan did majorities disagree with the assertion that capitalism currently did more harm than good.
More
The problem with fiat money is that it
rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has
worked and saved money.
George Goodman aka “Adam Smith.”
George Goodman
---- In 1984, Goodman came to television as the
creator, anchor and editor-in-chief of Adam Smith's Money
World. Running on the Public Broadcasting Service in the US,
it became the most honored program in its field, winning eight Emmy
nominations and five Emmy Awards, as well as the Overseas Press Club Award. The documentary
specials won gold medals at the Houston
International Film Festival and the Flagstaff Film Festival. The show used
cartoon characters and reports from the field to explain and simplify complex
financial subjects to its audience. Airing in over forty countries, it was also
the first American business news show broadcast in the Soviet
Union, airing weekly with a Russian soundtrack.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Qatar to build new solar power plant
Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says the project
will help meet a tenth of the country's peak energy demand.
20 January 2020.
Qatar has signed an agreement with French energy giant Total and Japan's
Marubeni to build a solar power plant capable of producing 800 megawatts, a
tenth of country's peak energy demand, according to the country's energy
minister.
The Al Kharsaah plant near the capital Doha comes at a cost of 1.7
billion riyals ($467m) and is expected to be complete by 2022 when the country
hosts the FIFA World Cup.
Today is the commencement of the project itself and we expected by the
first quarter of 2021 to have half of the [plant's] capacity up and
running," Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told a news briefing on Sunday.
"It will generate about eight times the size of the solar energy
Qatar had pledged to build, helping the organisation of a
carbon-neutral event," al-Kaabi continued, referring to the 2022
tournament.
Qatar's Siraj Energy, a joint venture owned by Qatar Petroleum (QP) and
Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC), will hold a 60 percent stake in the
solar plant. The remaining 40 percent will be owned by both Marubeni and Total.
Marubeni will take 51 percent of the minority stake, while Total will
have 49 percent.
Patrick Pouyanne, Total's chief executive, said the solar plant, once
complete, will be the largest ever built by the French conglomerate.
More
“France will be hosting a conference on climate change later
this year. But we’re not just coming for a meeting. Paris needs to result in a
binding global agreement that will map out an effective fight against climate
change – that is the major challenge of the twenty-first century.”
François
Hollande at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos 2015.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December
DJIA: 28,538 +91 Up. NASDAQ: 8,973 +125 Up.
SP500: 3,231 +114 Up.
All higher again, but it’s
not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a
rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock
bubble as an exit rally.
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