Friday, 3 January 2020

On The Brink of War. The Wait.


Baltic Dry Index. 976 -114  Brent Crude 68.17 Spot Gold 1542

Never ending Brexit now January 31.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.

“Covert action should not be confused with missionary work.”


Henry Kissinger

The big news this morning is the US assassination of Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, in Bagdad airport. It puts the middle east on the brink of a new war, and tests the competence of Iran’s command and control ability of their armed forces, regular and irregular. Any rogue commander or militia can now trigger war, even if Tehran doesn’t want war, preferring a more nuanced response.

In what’s good for the goose is good for the gander, the message of this global licence to kill in other countries, will not have been lost in Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang, and several other capitals.

For now, we can only await developments over the rest of the month. Let's hope Iran’s command and control over their armed forces is up to the job.

U.S. says it kills top Iranian commander Soleimani in air strike

January 2, 2020 / 10:46 PM
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The United States killed Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force and spearhead of Iran’s spreading military influence in the Middle East, on Friday in an air strike at Baghdad airport, the Pentagon and Iran said.

Top Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an adviser to Soleimani, was also killed in the attack, a militia spokesman said. 

The high-profile assassinations are likely to be a massive blow to Iran, which has been locked in a long conflict with the United States that escalated sharply last week with an attack on the US embassy in Iraq by pro-Iranian militiamen following a US air raid on the Kataib Hezbollah militia, founded by Muhandis.

“At the direction of the President, the U.S. military has taken decisive defensive action to protect U.S. personnel abroad by killing Qassem Soleimani,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

“This strike was aimed at deterring future Iranian attack plans,” it added.

U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Soleimani had been killed in a drone strike. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said he was killed in an attack by American helicopters.

Pictures showed burning debris on a road near the airport.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Soleimani’s assassination would strengthen resistance against the United States and Israel in the region and the world, Iranian state television reported

“The brutality and stupidity of American terrorist forces in assassinating Commander Soleimani ... will undoubtedly make the tree of resistance in the region and the world more prosperous,” Zarif said in a statement.

Iranian state television presenters wore black and broadcast footage of Soleimani peering through binoculars across a desert and greeting a soldier, and of Muhandis speaking to followers.

Ahmed al-Assadi, a spokesman for Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), the umbrella grouping of Iran-backed militias, blamed the United States and Israel for the killing of Soleimani and Muhandis.

Iraqi paramilitary groups said on Friday that three rockets hit Baghdad International Airport, killing five members of Iraqi paramilitary groups and two “guests”.

---- Soleimani’s killing marks a dramatic escalation in the regional “shadow war” between Iran and the US and its allies, principally Israel and Saudi Arabia, which could quickly ratchet up tit-for-tat attacks - all the way to the brink of all-out war.

The slain commander’s Quds Force, along with its stable of paramilitary proxies from Lebanon’s Hezbollah to the PMF in Iraq - battle-hardened militias armed with missiles - has ample means to launch a multi-barrelled response against its enemies.
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Former Iran Guards chief vows 'vigorous revenge against America' for Soleimani killing

January 3, 2020 / 3:32 AM
DUBAI (Reuters) - A former commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaei, on Friday vowed “vigorous revenge against America” for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force.

“Martyr Lieutenant General Qassem Suleimani joined his martyred brothers, but we will take vigorous revenge on America,” Rezaei, who is now the secretary of a powerful state body, said in a post on Twitter.

In other news, market reaction was pretty predictable. Better keep the car fuel tank 
 topped up at full for the next few weeks.

Asian shares stumble, oil surges after U.S. air strikes in Iraq

January 2, 2020 / 2:17 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Friday, erasing early gains, while oil prices spiked after U.S. air strikes in Iraq killed a top Iranian commander, heightening geopolitical tensions.

----MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS had touched its highest point since June 15, 2018 in early trade, but fell after reports of the air strike emerged. It was last down 0.26%. 

China’s CSI300 index, one of the world’s best-performing indexes last year, also turned negative, losing 0.25%. Australian shares were 0.66% higher, but that was off earlier highs.

“It remains very unclear exactly what impact (the U.S. strikes) could have on the equity market,” said Tapas Strickland, director of economics and markets at National Australia Bank.

“It is significant that one of Iran’s top military generals was reported to have been taken out ... but it all hinges on what Iran does in terms of retaliation,” he said.

Middle Eastern tensions upset a rally for the MSCI index, which finished at its highest close in more than 18 months on Thursday.

It had been lifted by a New Year’s Day announcement from China’s central bank that it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 800 billion yuan ($114.87 billion).

---- While equity markets turned lower, oil prices surged on news of Soleimani’s death, with global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 shooting 3.02% higher to $68.25 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 jumping 2.75% to $62.86 per barrel.
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In regular, boring news, China has launched yet another rare earths exchange.

China's Ganzhou launches rare earths exchange

January 2, 2020 / 5:05 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - The city of Ganzhou in China’s southeastern province of Jiangxi has launched an exchange for spot transactions in rare earths and minor metals, according to a report posted by the Association of China Rare Earth Industry on Thursday.

The Ganzhou Rare Metal Exchange, which was launched on Dec. 31, will help boost the city’s global influence and pricing power for the traded products, the report by the provincial government-run Jiangxi Daily cited Ganzhou mayor Zeng Wenming as saying. 

The bourse is the second rare earth exchange to open in China, the world’s dominant producer of the group of minerals after the launch of the Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange in Inner Mongolia in 2014. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is also working to introduce rare earth futures.

Baotou and Ganzhou are China’s two hubs for rare earths, which are prized for their use in consumer electronics and military equipment.

The Ganzhou exchange will also trade molybdenum, tungsten, tin, cobalt and other metals, the report said, making its trading portfolio similar to that of China’s now-defunct Fanya Metal Exchange.

Fanya was launched in 2011 with the aim of raising prices for minor metals and initially enjoyed government support before collapsing amid liquidity problems in 2015.

The report did not specify which of the 17 rare earths would be traded in Ganzhou, which is known for its high concentration of heavy rare earths such as terbium and dysprosium.

The city was visited by Chinese President Xi Jinping in May last year, speaking concerns that Beijing could seek to restrict supply in its trade war with the United States.

China has not formally announced any measures to curb supply and is set to sign a Phase 1 deal to end its trade row with Washington this month, although its rare earth exports to all countries sank to a 4-1/2 year low in November.

Finally, more on Japan’s most famous fugitive. From London’s it looks like Japan was author of its own misfortune. Justice delayed is justice denied, and besides, Japan had started playing dirty. Still Carlos picked a fine time to flee to the Middle East.

Trial delay helped to push Ghosn to flee Japan: sources

January 2, 2020 / 5:30 AM
BEIRUT/TOKYO (Reuters) - Ousted Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn decided to flee Japan after learning that his trial had been delayed until April 2021 and also because he had not been allowed to speak to his wife, sources close to Ghosn said on Thursday. 

Ghosn, one of the world’s best-known executives, has become Japan’s most famous fugitive after he revealed on Tuesday he had fled to Lebanon to escape what he called a “rigged” justice system.

Sources close to Ghosn said he learned at a recent court hearing that one of his two trials in Japan would be delayed until April 2021 from an original date of September 2020. There was not a firm date set for either trial but at least one was widely expected to start in April 2020.

“They said they needed another whole year to prepare for it ... He was distressed about not being able to see or speak to his wife,” one of the sources close to Ghosn said.

Under the terms of his bail, Ghosn was prevented from communicating with his wife, Carole, and had his use of the Internet and other communications restricted while confined to his house in Tokyo.

A request to see or speak to his wife over Christmas was denied, the sources said.

The sources also said Ghosn was unnerved by news that his daughter and son had been questioned by Japanese prosecutors in the United States in early December and was convinced authorities were looking to force a confession from him by putting pressure on his family.

No one was immediately available for comment at the office of Ghosn’s lawyer, Junichiro Hironaka or at the French embassy in Tokyo, or at the Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office.

Ghosn was first arrested in Tokyo in November 2018 and faces four charges, including hiding income and enriching himself through payments to car dealerships in the Middle East. He denies the charges.

The businessman, who holds French, Lebanese and Brazilian citizenship, was smuggled out of Tokyo by a private security company days ago, a plan that was in the works for three months, Reuters has reported.

Turkish broadcaster NTV said on Thursday Turkish police had detained seven people including four pilots after the country’s interior ministry began an investigation into Ghosn’s transit in Turkey on his way to Lebanon.
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 “Sometimes you move publicly, sometimes privately. Sometimes quietly, sometimes at the top of your voice.”

James Baker.  United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, naughty North Korea. Well what did America expect if they were only going to offer the stick, without offering any carrots?  After Baghdad, a crash development of their ICBM program, I would think.

Faster rockets, more warheads: What North Korea could gain from new weapons development

January 2, 2020 / 7:04 AM
SEOUL (Reuters) - If North Korea returns to long-range missile launches or other weapons tests in 2020, its military could make valuable technical advances and gain experience alongside whatever political message is sent to Washington.

This week North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that the world would soon see his country’s “new strategic weapon” and that there was no longer reason for Pyongyang to be bound by a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.

Kim’s comments were the strongest indication that the North could resume some of the major tests it had suspended more than two years ago in the run-up to summit diplomacy with the United States.

After years of development, the weapons programmes of North Korea are now advanced enough that it is hard to predict what it might test, said Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS).

U.S. military officials have said they see a long-range missile launch as one of the most likely possibilities.

Other experts said North Korea could launch a satellite, deploy the new ballistic missile submarine it says it is developing, or field new domestically produced “transporter erector launcher” (TEL) vehicles for its largest missiles.

“Any tests or drills they run will not only allow them to develop weapons that are faster, longer-range, or more reliable, but they also give the people operating these systems more exposure to and practice using and deploying the weapons,” said Grace Liu, a research associate at CNS.

---- Analysts also speculated that North Korea could be developing better solid rocket motors (SRMs), which can offer some benefits like easier storage and transportation.

SRMs would also be important for North Korea’s efforts to field an operational submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), similar to what was test-fired from a submerged barge in October.

“Every missile they’ve flight-tested in 2019 to date has used a solid rocket motor and they’re clearly becoming more adept at casting these motors in different diameters,” Panda said. “There are challenges associated with moving to ICBM-sized SRMs, but perhaps North Korea will demonstrate a breakthrough on that front.”

---- In 2019, North Korea conducted several tests of new short-range missiles such as the KN-23, which experts said are designed to better evade missile defences.

This year, North Korea could seek to develop multiple reentry vehicles for large-diameter missiles like the Hwasong-15, Panda said.

“Adding more nuclear warheads to a single missile can better assure them of an ability to penetrate American missile defence and, if they’re worried that their warheads might have reliability issues, more warheads increases the odds that one warhead will successfully detonate,” he said.
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“If you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”

James Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush.

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

New residential and commercial construction in St. Louis now required to be solar-ready

St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson signed legislation on Dec. 23 that makes the City of St. Louis the first in the Midwest and the second in the country to require new construction to be “solar-ready.”

Board Bill 146, which was sponsored by 28th Ward Alderwoman Heather Navarro, received unanimous approval by the full Board of Aldermen on Dec.13, 2019. It requires that new residential, multifamily or commercial construction in the city be designed in a way that can facilitate the installation of rooftop solar panels, in compliance with the 2018 International Energy Conservation Code.

“As mayor, I want people to know that this administration is taking the climate crisis seriously and meeting its challenges head-on, especially at the local level. That includes signing this historic solar readiness bill, which reflects that commitment. I extend my sincere thanks to all those who worked diligently together to make this legislation possible,” said Mayor Krewson.

The legislation, which takes effect immediately, aims to provide city residents with expanded access to the financial and environmental benefits of choosing solar power. That is because engineering a building to be solar-ready is generally much easier and less expensive during the design phase of a project, as compared to retrofitting an existing structure.

“Up until now, it has been only the people who can afford the up-front installation costs of solar power who benefit from the lower electric rates. This bill levels the playing field and better positions city residents to take advantage of solar power,” said Alderwoman Navarro.

For buildings that are designed solar-ready, typical homeowners could save $4,000 on their solar installations and a commercial building owner could save $25,000. There are also important environmental benefits, as rooftop solar panels present an opportunity to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions caused by generating electricity for buildings in the city.
Another weekend, and the first weekend of the new year. I wonder what President Trump will tweet? Have a great weekend everyone.

“People say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing every day.”

Former Prime Minister May, with apologies to A.A. Milne, and Winnie-the-Pooh

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December

DJIA: 28,538 +91 Up. NASDAQ: 8,973 +125 Up. SP500: 3,231 +114 Up.

All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally.

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