Baltic Dry Index. 754 -14 Brent Crude 64.85 Spot Gold 1557
Never ending Brexit now January 31.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October
18. Now in effect.
“It sounds terrible but I respond
more favourably to what the president of China is saying than the president of
the United States,’” Volcker said. “The president of China, at least, says he’s
looking forward to a harmonious relationship over time ... But looking for
peaceable outcomes, where we are all threats and demands, so it’s a different
story being told”
Paul Volker, Reuters 2019.
This weekend we take a break from the
latest Federal Reserve-DTCC-FICC stock market bubble, fiat currency MMT madness,
to present (once again,) the new world order madness afflicting most mainstream
media on the subject of energy and our “carbon free” future.
Davos greets Greta Thunberg, as
Australia gets rain. Look away from the BDI.
The Best-Laid Energy Plans
The feds bet $737 million on a salt tower for solar power. You’ll never guess the result.
In September
2011, the Energy Department described how the 110-megawatt facility would “be
the first of its kind in the United States and the tallest molten salt tower in
the world,” powering more than 43,000 homes a year. The precedent was Solar
Two, a small pilot plant decommissioned in 1999 that had shown it was
technically feasible to use molten salt to store and generate power. But in a
2006 report the Energy Department said the 10-megawatt facility “was never
expected to be a viable commercial-scale plant and, in fact, did not validate
economic feasibility.”
No worries.
It’s only taxpayer money, and the feds jumped into Crescent Dunes anyway. The
Department of Energy finalized its loan guarantee on Sept. 23, 2011, a week
before the federal loan program expired. A month earlier Nevada had approved
$119.3 million in tax abatements for Crescent Dunes over 20 years. The plant
also received some $140 million in private investment.
Crescent
Dunes began by missing the deadline established by its agreement with NV
Energy, becoming operational months late. Commercial operations began in
November 2015, but less than a year later the facility went offline because of
a “massive leak in the hot salt tank,” according to SolarReserve, a partial
owner of Crescent Dunes.
Through the
first half of 2017 the plant generated no electricity and no sales, according
to its disclosures to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Yet in April
2017 the Department of Energy proclaimed Crescent Dunes a “success story” taken
from “mirage to reality,” “a milestone for the country’s energy future,” and a
global “blueprint for solar projects.”
In a fact
sheet advertised as “up-to-date as of June 2017,” the Energy Department claimed
Crescent Dunes was “operational” and projected energy generation of up to
482,000 megawatt hours a year. The plant never generated that much power in the
entirety of its operations. An Energy Department spokesman declined comment.
Crescent
Dunes resumed operations in the latter half of 2017, but problems persisted. In
a June 2019 report to the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada, NV Energy
described how the plant “has experienced frequent and prolonged outages.”
Crescent Dunes’ performance problems were so severe that they posed “the most
significant risk” for NV Energy’s ability to meet its renewable portfolio standard
obligations, the utility said.
Last summer
Crescent Dunes’ hot salt tanks “suffered a catastrophic failure, which caused
ground contamination and required the removal of the solar tower that is
essential to the plant’s ability to generate any electrical power to function
as designed,” SolarReserve said in recent court filings.
Operations
halted again. The Department of Energy sent a formal default notice in
September. Weeks later Crescent Dunes’ sole customer, NV Energy, terminated its
power purchase agreement. The plant has no prospective clients and couldn’t
supply energy even if it found a buyer. Even if the plant began running again,
it would face competition from solar photovoltaic projects. Crescent Dunes’
average price was more than $132 per megawatt hour, but Techren Solar II in
Nevada’s Eldorado Valley offered the same unit of power for $31.15 in the
fourth quarter of 2019.
SolarReserve,
which did not respond to requests for comment, is now suing for the equitable
dissolution of Tonopah Solar Energy LLC, the entity created to run Crescent
Dunes. In November SolarReserve told a federal court that “the plant is
moribund—neither generating energy nor revenue” and that Tonopah is
“insolvent,” has debt of more than $440 million with “assets of much less
value,” and is “unable to pay its debts as they come due.”
Scores of
new businesses fail, but private investors lose their own money. Government
investments turn on politics more than feasibility. Hand the energy economy
over to the government in the name of climate change, and there will be
countless more Crescent Dunes fiascoes.
More
The "New Energy Economy": An Exercise in Magical Thinking
Mark P. Mills March 26, 2019
Executive Summary
A movement has been growing for decades to replace hydrocarbons, which collectively supply 84% of the world’s energy. It began with the fear that we were running out of oil. That fear has since migrated to the belief that, because of climate change and other environmental concerns, society can no longer tolerate burning oil, natural gas, and coal—all of which have turned out to be abundant.So far, wind, solar, and batteries—the favored alternatives to hydrocarbons—provide about 2% of the world’s energy and 3% of America’s. Nonetheless, a bold new claim has gained popularity: that we’re on the cusp of a tech-driven energy revolution that not only can, but inevitably will, rapidly replace all hydrocarbons.
This “new energy economy” rests on the belief—a centerpiece of the Green New Deal and other similar proposals both here and in Europe—that the technologies of wind and solar power and battery storage are undergoing the kind of disruption experienced in computing and communications, dramatically lowering costs and increasing efficiency. But this core analogy glosses over profound differences, grounded in physics, between systems that produce energy and those that produce information.
In the world of people, cars, planes, and factories, increases in consumption, speed, or carrying capacity cause hardware to expand, not shrink. The energy needed to move a ton of people, heat a ton of steel or silicon, or grow a ton of food is determined by properties of nature whose boundaries are set by laws of gravity, inertia, friction, mass, and thermodynamics—not clever software.
This paper highlights the physics of energy to illustrate why there is no possibility that the world is undergoing—or can undergo—a near-term transition to a “new energy economy.”
Among the reasons:
- Scientists have yet to discover, and entrepreneurs have yet to invent, anything as remarkable as hydrocarbons in terms of the combination of low-cost, high-energy density, stability, safety, and portability. In practical terms, this means that spending $1 million on utility-scale wind turbines, or solar panels will each, over 30 years of operation, produce about 50 million kilowatt-hours (kWh)—while an equivalent $1 million spent on a shale rig produces enough natural gas over 30 years to generate over 300 million kWh.
- Solar technologies have improved greatly and will continue to become cheaper and more efficient. But the era of 10-fold gains is over. The physics boundary for silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells, the Shockley-Queisser Limit, is a maximum conversion of 34% of photons into electrons; the best commercial PV technology today exceeds 26%.
- Wind power technology has also improved greatly, but here, too, no 10-fold gains are left. The physics boundary for a wind turbine, the Betz Limit, is a maximum capture of 60% of kinetic energy in moving air; commercial turbines today exceed 40%.
- The annual output of Tesla’s Gigafactory, the world’s largest battery factory, could store three minutes’ worth of annual U.S. electricity demand. It would require 1,000 years of production to make enough batteries for two days’ worth of U.S. electricity demand. Meanwhile, 50–100 pounds of materials are mined, moved, and processed for every pound of battery produced.
Introduction
A growing chorus of voices is exhorting the public, as well as government policymakers, to embrace the necessity—indeed, the inevitability—of society’s transition to a “new energy economy.” (See Peak Hydrocarbons Just Around the Corner.) Advocates claim that rapid technological changes are becoming so disruptive and renewable energy is becoming so cheap and so fast that there is no economic risk in accelerating the move to—or even mandating—a post-hydrocarbon world that no longer needs to use much, if any, oil, natural gas, or coal.Central to that worldview is the proposition that the energy sector is undergoing the same kind of technology disruptions that Silicon Valley tech has brought to so many other markets. Indeed, “old economy” energy companies are a poor choice for investors, according to proponents of the new energy economy, because the assets of hydrocarbon companies will soon become worthless, or “stranded.”[1] Betting on hydrocarbon companies today is like betting on Sears instead of Amazon a decade ago.
More
'You have not seen anything yet,' climate activist Greta says ahead of Davos
January 17, 2020 / 3:39 PM
LAUSANNE, Switzerland (Reuters) - Swedish
activist Greta Thunberg marched with 10,000 protesters in the Swiss city of
Lausanne on Friday and said “you have not seen anything yet” before some head
to Davos next week to challenge the global financial elite to fight climate
change.
The
17-year-old, who launched the #FridaysforFuture movement that has sparked
worldwide protests, denounced a lack of government action to cut heat-trapping
emissions before it is too late.
“So, we are
now in a new year and we have entered a new decade and so far, during this
decade, we have seen no sign whatsoever that real climate action is coming and
that has to change,” Thunberg said in a speech in Lausanne.
“To the
world leaders and those in power, I would like to say that you have not seen
anything yet. You have not seen the last of us, we can assure you that. And
that is the message that we will bring to the World Economic Forum in Davos
next week.”
Protesters
held signs including “Wake up and Smell the Bushfires” and “It is late but it
is not too late”.
Hundreds
will take trains over the weekend and then march to Klosters near Davos, the
annual gathering of world political and business leaders that Thunberg is
attending for the second year in a row and will take part in two panel events.
More
The Elite Machine Behind Greta Thunberg
In the
matter of a few months, Greta Thunberg went from a lone girl protesting in
front of the Swedish parliament to an international phenomenon. Although mass
media is making it seem as if this meteoric rise to prominence happened
organically, this is simply not true.
Behind Greta
is a major machine, one that is controlled by major international actors and
backed by major funds. This PR machine has allowed Greta to make the covers of
magazines, become the subject of thousands of news articles while being
photographed with world leaders and giving speeches at elite organizations such
as the United Nations.
---- My field of expertise is mass media and its relation to power. In the “Read This First” article of this site, I explained (using quotes from the field of Communications such as Edward Bernays) how mass media is used to shape and mold opinions. The rise of Greta to international prominence is a clear-cut case of “agenda-setting” which is defined as follows:
Agenda-setting is the creation of public awareness and concern of salient issues by the news media. As well, agenda-setting describes the way that media attempts to influence viewers, and establish a hierarchy of news prevalence. Two basic assumptions underlie most researches on agenda-setting:
- the press and the media do not reflect reality; they filter and shape it;
- media concentration on a few issues and subjects leads the public to perceive those issues as more important than other issues.
3 A classic representation of the
agenda-setting theory.
Most media outlets are owned by a
handful of mega-corporations, making it very easy for the elite to saturate the
world with a specific message. And the meteoric rise of Greta is a result of
this kind of media saturation. In fact, her entire movement is undeniable proof
of the extreme reach and power of mass media in the world today which is able
to create massive movements out of nothing.
5.
Mass media programming is
particularly effective on those who did not develop an acute sense of critical
thinking – notably young people. And the Greta phenomenon was custom-made to
cater to this very specific demographic.
Here’s a look at the rise of Greta.
More
Floods, road closures in Australia as storms lash some bushfire-hit regions
January 18, 2020 / 2:16 AM
MELBOURNE
(Reuters) - Parts of Australia’s east coast were hit by severe storms on
Saturday, dousing some of the bushfires that have devastated the region for
months but causing road closures and flash flooding.
Fears of
smoke from the fires disrupting the Australian Open tennis receded in Melbourne,
where the main tournament was due to start on Monday.
Despite the
heavy rain, authorities were still battling nearly 100 blazes - part of the
bushfires that have killed 29 people since September, destroyed more than 2,500
homes and scorched an area nearly one-third the size of Germany.
Victoria,
New South Wales and Queensland, three of the states most hit by drought and
bushfires, are now dealing with rain bucketing down in several areas.
Major
highways were closed in Queensland on Saturday, with the state getting some of
the heaviest rain Australia has seen for months, while power was cut in parts
of New South Wales after a stormy night.
“Heavy,
intense rainfall has eased, but showers and thunderstorms still possible
through the weekend,” the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland said on Twitter
on Saturday.
---- Parts of Queensland’s south saw triple the monthly rainfall overnight. No major damage has been reported, although some residential areas were flooded and many of the state’s parks and tourist attractions were closed.
New South
Wales fire services welcomed the rain, which they said on Twitter would help to
control the 75 fires burning in the state, of which 25 are yet to be contained.
But, they also said that some firegrounds have not seen any rain yet.
More benign
storms were forecast for Victoria over the weekend, which has been hit this
week already by severe storms and unhealthy smoke from the bushfires.
More
Eastern Libya halts more than half the country's oil output
January 17, 2020 / 10:55 PM
BERLIN/CAIRO
(Reuters) - Eastern Libya ports controlled by commander Khalifa Haftar, who is
trying to seize the capital Tripoli, are shutting down oil exports, slashing
national crude output by more than half and ramping up tensions ahead of a
summit in Germany to discuss the country’s conflict.
The dramatic
move came as Germany and the United Nations try to persuade Haftar and his
foreign backers at the Berlin summit on Sunday to halt his nine-month campaign
to take Tripoli, seat of the internationally recognised government.
Tribesmen in
areas controlled by Haftar’s Libya National Army (LNA) faction on Friday
stormed the eastern Zueitina oil export port and announced the closure of all
terminals under LNA control.
LNA
spokesman Ahmed Mismari later told reporters that the “Libyan people” had
closed the oil ports. A source in state oil company NOC said the LNA and an
eastern oil protection force had ordered the closure of the ports. The oil
protection force confirmed exports had been stopped.
Libya’s oil
production was an estimated 1.3 million barrels a day before the closures.
Analysts
said the closure of oil ports would not have been possible without the blessing
of the LNA leadership. Eastern authorities tolerate little dissent, human
rights groups say.
The
tribesmen allied with Haftar earlier accused the Tripoli government of using
oil revenues to pay foreign fighters - a reference to Turkey’s decision to send
soldiers and fighters from Syria’s civil war to western Libya to help the
Tripoli government fend off the LNA campaign.
More
Renault expects slight 2020 car market decline in Europe, Russia and China
January 17, 2020 / 8:14 AM
PARIS (Reuters) - Renault (RENA.PA)
said on Friday it expected a slight decline in the car market in Europe, Russia
and China this year after the French carmaker reported a 3.4% fall of worldwide
sales in 2019 as China and Iran weighed.
Sales grew
by 1.3% to 1.94 million units in Europe but fell 17.2% in China. Sales also
fell by 19.3% in Africa, Middle East, India and the Pacific region, Renault
said in a statement.
Renault has
suffered since August 2018 from the closure of the Iranian market where the
company sold had around 101,000 vehicles, which it was not able to do last
year.
In 2019,
sales were also down 44.5% in Argentina and -26.5% in Turkey.
Renault’s
Executive VP sales Olivier Murguet said at a press conference that the
automotive market would slightly decline in Europe, Russia and China in 2020.
The company
also expects growth in the market in Brazil and an upturn in Turkey this year.
“For the
group, 2020 will mark a new stage in its electric offensive with the launch of
Twingo Z.E. and the deployment of its new E-Tech hybrid and plug-in hybrid
offer,” Renault said.
Murguet said
the company was targeting 70% growth in its electric cars sales in 2020.
More
Finally, everyone likes a good dog story
so here’s a good wolf story, just don’t try it with full grown hungry wolves.
Now let’s see them repeat it with cats.
Scientists get goosebumps after undomesticated wolf puppies play fetch
Nick Lavars January 16, 2020
Behavioral
ecologists in Sweden have been left dumbfounded after wolf puppies raised in
their care exhibited a totally unexpected ability to retrieve a tennis ball
much like a domesticated dog. The observation reshapes our understanding of how
these wild creatures interpret cues from humans, and also sheds light on how
the early stages of dog domestication may have played out.
The research
was carried out by scientists at Stockholm University, who are raising wolf and
dog puppies from the age of 10 days to investigate how domestication impacts
behavior. This involves putting them through a variety of tests, one of which
involved a stranger throwing a tennis ball across a room and encouraging the
puppies to bring it back.
The team had
no expectations going in, and the first two sets of wolf litters to take part
in the experiment did nothing to change that by showing little to no interest
in the balls. But in the third litter the scientists tested, three
eight-week-old wolf puppies chased after the ball. They then defied
expectations further by reacting to cues from the strangers to bring the ball
back.
"It was
very surprising that we had wolves actually retrieving the ball," says
lead author, Christina Hansen Wheat from Stockholm University. "I did not
expect that. I do not think any of us did. It was especially surprising that
the wolves retrieved the ball for a person they had never met before."
----
"When I saw the first wolf puppy retrieving the ball I literally got goose
bumps," says Christina Hansen Wheat of Stockholm University, Sweden.
"It was so unexpected, and I immediately knew that this meant that if
variation in human-directed play behavior exists in wolves, this behavior could
have been a potential target for early selective pressures exerted during dog
domestication."
This weekend’s musical diversion. Hamburg’s
telly man again, a man well before his time. Today, hammering a dulcimer for
all it’s worth. Parts sound like Handel’s Queen of
Sheba. But who stole from whom?
Georg Philipp Telemann
---- While Telemann's career prospered, his personal life was always troubled: his first wife died only a few months after their marriage, and his second wife had extramarital affairs and accumulated a large gambling debt before leaving him.Telemann is one of the most prolific composers in history[1] (at least in terms of surviving oeuvre)[2] and was considered by his contemporaries to be one of the leading German composers of the time—he was compared favorably both to his friend Johann Sebastian Bach, who made Telemann the godfather and namesake of his son Carl Philipp Emanuel, and to George Frideric Handel, whom Telemann also knew personally.
The Hammered dulcimer
"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."
Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December
DJIA: 28,538
+91 Up. NASDAQ: 8,973 +125 Up. SP500: 3,231 +114 Up.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is
all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I
continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally.
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