Baltic Dry Index. 546 -11 Brent Crude 59.11 Spot Gold 1580
Never ending Brexit now January 31. 4 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
Epidemics of infectious disease are
generally caused by several factors including a change in the ecology of the
host population (e.g. increased stress or increase in the density of a vector
species), a genetic change in the pathogen reservoir or the introduction of an
emerging pathogen to a host population (by movement of pathogen or host).
Generally, an epidemic occurs when host immunity to either an established
pathogen or newly emerging novel pathogen is suddenly reduced below that
found in the endemic equilibrium and the transmission threshold is exceeded.
Stocks and oil sold off as the coronavirus crisis
deepened yesterday, with no end in sight.
In fact, one expert who was involved in handling the 2002-2003 SARS
crisis, estimated yesterday that though reliable information is still sketchy, he
thinks that 10,000 to 20,000 people in China are probably already infected, and
that the crisis might not end until June or July.
With Asian tourism, hotels and airlines already reeling,
there are rising fears for the health of the global economy. Will the crisis drag
on and affect this year’s Olympic games in Japan? Will the athletes or
spectators show up?
Below, the latest on a still developing crisis.
China records first virus death in Beijing as toll passes 100
January 28, 2020 /
4:46 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- The new strain of coronavirus spreading across China claimed its first victim
in Beijing, officials said on Tuesday, as the death toll climbed to 106, the
United States warned citizens against trips to the country and financial markets
recoiled again at the potential impact on the world’s second-biggest economy.
Amid mounting concern about the virus on Chinese social media, the
National Health Commission said in a statement that all but six of those killed
by the previously unknown flu-like virus were in Wuhan, Hubei province. Though
cases of the virus have been confirmed in other countries, no fatalities have
been reported outside China.
The city of 11 million, where the virus emerged late last year, is now
under effective lockdown. Footage shared on China’s Twitter-like Weibo social
media platform showed residents of apartment compounds in the city chanting
“Wuhan, you can do it!” and singing the national anthem out of their windows.
Tuesday’s death toll was up from 81 as of the day before, while the
number of total confirmed cases in China surged to 4,515 as of Jan. 27, from
2,835 a day earlier, the National Health Commission said.
Global stocks fell, oil prices hit three-month lows, and China’s yuan
dipped to its weakest level in 2020 as investors worried about damage to the
economy from travel bans over the Lunar New Year holiday period, which China
extended in a bid to keep people at home.
---- Authorities in Hubei, home to nearly 60 million people, are taking increasing flak from the public over their initial response to the virus, while much of the province is now under travel curbs.
----- Investors
are worried that economic output will be hit in the short term as authorities
limit travel and extend the week-long New Year holiday - when millions
traditionally travel by rail, road and plane - by three days to limit spread of
the virus.
Asian stocks extended a global selloff on Tuesday. With Chinese markets
shut investors were selling the offshore yuan and the Australian dollar as a
proxy for risk. Oil was also under pressure as fears about the wider fallout
from the virus mounted.
The U.S. S&P 500 closed down nearly 1.6%.
Echoing concern from South Korea on economic consequences, Japanese
Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura warned that corporate profits and factory
production might take a hit from the virus. China is Japan’s second-largest
export destination and a huge market for its retailers, while Chinese make up
30% of all tourists visiting Japan.
More
Asian markets sink on continued worries about China virus
By Associated Press
Published: Jan 27, 2020 11:41 p.m. ET
TOKYO — Asian shares skidded again Tuesday on deepening
worries over the expanding outbreak of a new virus in China.Markets in Hong Kong and mainland China were closed Tuesday for Lunar New Year holidays, while South Korea’s 180721, -3.21% benchmark tumbled 3.2% as it reopened after its own holidays.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, -0.79% lost 0.9% , while Australia’s S&P ASX/200 XJO, -1.35% slipped 1.6%. Shares also fell in Taiwan Y9999, +0.24% , Jakarta JAKIDX, -0.99% and Singapore STI, -2.58% .
China has extended its national holiday by three days so that offices should reopen on Monday. Shanghai’s holiday was extended until Feb. 9.
Overnight, a sell-off on Wall Street gave the Dow its first 5-day losing streak since early August and handed the S&P 500 its worst day since early October. The latest bout of selling on Wall Street came after China announced a sharp rise in cases of the virus.
“How long and how deep the correction lower will last, depends both on
the success of China’s efforts to control the viral spread, and the prevalence
of its occurrence internationally,” Jeffrey Halley of Oanda said in a
commentary.
Airlines, resorts and other companies that rely on travel and tourism
suffered steep losses. Gold prices rose as did bonds as traders sought refuge
in safer holdings.
More
Japan warns about risks to economy from China virus outbreak
January 28, 2020
/ 3:31 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Economy Minister
Yasutoshi Nishimura warned on Tuesday that corporate profits and factory
production might take a hit from the coronavirus outbreak in China that has
rattled global markets and chilled confidence.
---- “There are concerns over the impact to the global economy from the spread of infection in China, transportation disruptions, cancellation of group tours from China and an extension in the Lunar Holiday,” Nishimura told a news conference after a regular cabinet meeting.
“If the situation takes longer to subside, we’re concerned it could hurt
Japanese exports, output and corporate profits via the impact on Chinese
consumption and production,” he said.
China is Japan’s second largest export destination and a huge market for
its retailers. The Chinese make up 30% of all tourists visiting Japan and
nearly 40% of the total sum foreign tourists spent last year, an industry
survey showed.
The outbreak could hit Japanese department stores, retailers and hotels,
which count on a boost to sales from an inflow of Chinese tourists visiting
during the Lunar Holiday.
---- “We’re worried that sales and the number of shoppers could fall if the outbreak persists,” said a public relations official at Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings, a major Japanese department store operator.
“It’s not just about Chinese tourists. We’re also worried that concern
over the outbreak may keep Japanese shoppers home.”
Automaker Honda Motor, which has three plants in Wuhan, the capital of
Hubei province and the epicentre of the outbreak, plans to evacuate some staff.
Aeon will close its shopping malls in the city until Thursday.
----
Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said the
decline in tourists from China could hurt Japan’s GDP growth by up to 0.2%.
“The biggest worry is the risk the negative impact from the outbreak
persists and hits (the economy) during the Tokyo Olympic Games,” when a huge
number of Chinese tourists are expected to visit Japan, he said.
“If the number of visitors decrease rather than increase, the hit to
Japan’s consumer industry will be quite large.”
Japan will host the 2020 Olympics in July and August.
Scientists Estimate 44,000 Virus Cases, Doubling Every 6 Days
Reliable estimates
from scientists suggest massive under-reporting of cases as well as chance of
spreading.
27 January 2020
The University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) reports nCoV spread in China's cities could trigger global epidemic.
At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU) estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They also estimated that the city's cases will double over the next 6 days.
Real-Time Nowcast
CIDRAP linked to this Real-time nowcast and forecast on the extent of the Wuhan CoV outbreak by Professors Gabriel Leung and Joseph Wu of the LKS Faculty of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong.
Global Epidemic Points From the Hong Kong Report
- 2019-nCoV may be about to become a global epidemic
- Self-sustaining human-to-human spread is already present in all major Chinese cities
- Seeding outside mainland China and subsequent local establishment may become inevitable, unless some or all of the following interventions are deployed quickly:
- Substantial, draconian measures limiting population mobility taken immediately
- Cancellation of mass gatherings
- School closures
- Instituting work-from-home arrangements
More
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, coronavirus rattles Europe, Facebook, others.
Germany identifies first case of deadly coronavirus
January 28, 2020
/ 1:48 AM
(Reuters) - Germany has declared its first confirmed case of the deadly
coronavirus that broke out in China.
Bavaria’s health department said late on Monday that a man in the town
of Starnberg, 30 kilometres (19 miles) southwest of Munich, has been confirmed
as suffering from the virus.
The patient is in “good condition” and isolated under medical
observation, Bavaria’s health department said in a statement posted on its
website. It did not disclose any details of the patient’s age or nationality.
“People who have been in contact (with the patient) have been informed
in detail about possible symptoms, hygiene measures and transmission channels,”
the health department said.
The virus, that broke out in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the
end of last year, has thus far killed 100 people, infected over 2,800 others,
stranded tens of millions during the big Lunar New Year holiday and rattled
global markets.
Cases linked to people who travelled from Wuhan have been confirmed in a
dozen countries, from Japan to the United States.
European airlines and luxury-goods makers hit hard as China’s coronavirus spreads
Published:
Jan 27, 2020 5:46 a.m. ET
European
stocks tumbled on Monday, with airlines, mining stocks and luxury-goods
companies hit hard as the death toll and number of infected from China’s
coronavirus ramped up over the weekend.
----That’s as U.S. stock futures fell sharply, with Dow futures YMH20, -1.60% indicating a near 1% drop when trading begins later. At the heart of market concerns are several headlines about the rapidly spreading coronavirus, which usually causes respiratory illness.
China extended this week’s Lunar New Year holiday, just one of several measures aimed at halting the spread of the coronavirus, as the death count rose to at least 80, and the number of those infected neared 3,000. Several countries have reported confirmed infections, including the U.S., France and Japan.
Questions are being raised over the effectiveness of the quarantine on places like Wuhan, China, believed to be the epicenter of the outbreak. A worrying detail emerged as Wuhan’s mayor Zhou Xianwang said that five million people left the city before the travel ban was imposed.
Travel and luxury-goods companies again had big declines as analysts began pondering the economic impact of the virus. Fears of world-wide travel being hit left airlines sharply lower, with Deutsche Lufthansa LHA, -4.71%, EasyJet EZJ, -5.33%, Air France-KLM AF, -6.55% and International Consolidated Airlines Group IAG, -6.05% all down over 4%.
More
Facebook, others restrict business travel to China as warnings grow
January 28, 2020
/ 5:15 AM
SHANGHAI/SEOUL (Reuters) - Facebook Inc and
other global companies including LG Electronics Inc and Standard Chartered Plc
are restricting travel to China, as the death toll from a flu-like virus rose
above 100 on Tuesday.
Airlines are also cancelling flights and adjusting schedules as a
growing number of countries raise travel warnings to not just Hubei province
where the new coronavirus broke out, but also to the rest of mainland China.
The United States warned on Monday that Americans should “reconsider”
visiting all of China, while South Korea elevated its travel warning on
Tuesday, advising its citizens to refrain from visiting China.
Facebook became the first major U.S. company to announce a travel
suspension after the U.S. government’s warning.
The U.S. social media company asked employees to halt non-essential
travel to mainland China and told employees who had travelled there to work
from home, a spokesman said on Tuesday.
---- South Korean home appliances maker LG has put a complete ban on travel to China and has advised employees on business trips in the country to return home as quickly as possible, a company spokeswoman said.
South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix Inc said it was urging employees to
avoid all non-essential travel to China, while banking group Standard Chartered
restricted travel to both mainland China and Hong Kong.
In Germany, auto supplier Webasto, which has 11 sites in China,
including in Wuhan, has halted all corporate travel to and from China following
the virus and the infection of an employee.
Japan’s Honda Motor Co Ltd said it recommended employees avoid travel to
China, while Nissan Motor Co said it plans to evacuate its Japanese staff and
their families in Wuhan via a government-chartered flight.
As companies reassessed the risk of travel to China, some airlines said
demand for flights was falling and they were adjusting schedules.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Researchers In US & China Use Machine Learning To Make Better Solar Panels
January 25th, 2020 by Michael BarnardSolar power and advanced computing are a key cleantech intersection point. From renewables return on investment optimization to optimal rooftop commercial solar deployment, machine learning is helping us get more efficient and effective in our global transformation.
But it’s deeper than that. Researchers in the US and China are using machine learning to discover new solar panel chemistries to increase the base efficiency and economic effectiveness of solar panels. They are trialing hundreds or thousands of combinations in virtual test beds before bringing them into the physical world, a key element of the machine-to-reality value proposition
Let’s
start in the United States with Jinxin Li, Basudev Pradhan, Surya Gaur, and
Jayan Thomas from the sun-drenched campus of the University of Central Florida.
Their focus is on perovskite solar panels. This set of chemistries featuring
inorganic and organic elements has achieved efficiencies of 28%, exceeding
standard silicon maximum efficiencies, and is advancing quickly. However, the
options for composition are very large, and the number of researchers limited.
In their study, published under the title Predictions and Strategies
Learned from Machine Learning to Develop High‐Performing Perovskite Solar Cells in
Wiley, the team attempted to simplify this process. They used 333 data points
from about 2,000 peer-reviewed studies on the subject to train a model to look
for higher probability chemistries. They’ve not only identified the most likely
candidates for physical research, but with reasonable accuracy predicted
performance based on underlying chemical factors.
Their work supports and
suggests approaching the theoretical Shockley-Queisser
limit for individual solar cell efficiency as well. While
solar panels have diminished in price mostly due to massive economies of scale
for manufacturing, distribution and construction, increased efficiency with
cheap and plentiful minerals still has room to bear fruit.
----The
next team working on solar technology with machine learning approaches are
Wenbo Sun, Yujie Zheng, et al., out of Chongqing University, the North China
University of Science and Technology, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Their focus is on the emerging space of organic solar cells, which
use organic polymers or molecules to capture the energy of the sun and convert
it to useful electricity. Efficiency is lower still in this space so far, with
maximum efficiencies under 20% to date. But the range of organic chemistries is
vast, it’s a new field, and the upsides are large if they can be made more
efficient and durable. Once again, this is a light, thin-film technology and
inherently flexible and fast to manufacture. And once again, machine learning
comes to the rescue.
As the approach requires data and organic films are
relatively new, the team first started by assembling a massive dataset of over
1,700 materials from literature. They then explored how to fingerprint the
molecular structures most effectively for application of machine learning
approaches, and finally verified it against a new set of materials to assess
predictive quality. And predictive quality is good. Expect more advances from
this team in this solar technology over the coming years, and a new breed of
thin, light, and cheap solar panels to emerge from China because of it.
An epidemic may be restricted to one location; however, if it
spreads to other countries or continents and affects a substantial number of
people, it may be termed a pandemic.[1] The declaration of an epidemic
usually requires a good understanding of a baseline
rate of incidence;
epidemics for certain diseases, such as influenza, are defined as reaching some
defined increase in incidence above this baseline.[2] A few cases of a very rare disease may be classified as an epidemic,
while many cases of a common disease (such as the common cold) would not.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December
DJIA: 28,538 +91 Up. NASDAQ: 8,973 +125 Up.
SP500: 3,231 +114 Up.
All higher again, but it’s
not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a
rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock
bubble as an exit rally.
No comments:
Post a Comment