Baltic Dry Index. 623 -66 Brent Crude 62.19 Spot Gold 1559
Never ending Brexit now January 31. 9 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October 18. Now in effect.
I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I
couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where
from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be
out of the market.
Jesse Livermore
With China and much of southeast Asia about to celebrate
the Lunar New Year, January 25th to February 4th, copper,
oil, and the Baltic Dry (shipping) Index are all now signalling a growing
global economic slowdown.
Is it just Lunar New Year related plus rising concern
over China’s new coronavirus problem, or something more?
Just how dangerous is this new coronavirus, and what will
be its effect on the global economy?
While it’s far too early to know, the medical reaction
(over reaction?) so far suggests that those in the know fear the worst.
Experience tells me it’s time to sit safely in cash until
the picture in Asia clarifies.
At best, it will have virtually no impact on the global
economy. At worst, it might impact global travel and tourism, China’s food
exports, stock markets, China’s real estate markets.
Below, Wuhan goes into lockdown. Someone somewhere thinks
this is a big deal.
Asian shares wilt, oil tumbles as China virus spreads
January 23, 2020 /
2:29 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares and U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as investors remained anxious
about the spread of a new flu-like virus in China just as millions prepared to
travel for the Lunar New Year.
Oil futures tumbled to seven-week lows as the contagion was expected to hit airline travel, while the International Energy Agency’s warning of an oil surplus and a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories re-kindled fears of excess supply.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.45%.
Blue chip Chinese shares .CSI300 slumped 0.91%. Australian shares were down 0.57%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 slid 0.6%.
The Chinese yuan fell toward a two-week low, while safe-havens such as the Japanese yen, gold, and U.S. Treasuries rose before a travel blockade of the Chinese city, Wuhan, at the center of the outbreak starts later on Thursday.
Deaths in China from the new coronavirus rose to 17 on Wednesday, with nearly 600 cases confirmed. The outbreak has evoked memories of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2002-2003, another coronavirus which broke out in China and killed nearly 800 people in a global pandemic.
“Markets are expressing concern about the growth outlook,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
“The coronavirus has introduced some caution. There is no reason to expect a global pandemic now, but there is some repricing in financial markets.”
---- The S&P
500 .SPX
eked out a 0.03% gain on Wednesday, but the overall tone on Wall Street was
mixed as investors assessed the impact of the virus and braced for the
corporate earnings season.
More
China locks down city of 11 million at epicentre of virus outbreak
January 23, 2020 /
2:26 AM
BEIJING (Reuters)
- China is putting on lockdown a city of 11 million people considered the
epicentre of a new coronavirus outbreak that has killed 17 and infected nearly
600, as health authorities around the world scramble to prevent a global
pandemic.
Health officials fear the transmission rate will accelerate as hundreds
of millions of Chinese travel at home and abroad during week-long holidays for
Lunar New Year, which begins on Saturday.
The previously unknown virus strain is believed to have emerged late
last year from illegally traded wildlife at an animal market in China’s central
city of Wuhan.
Cases have been detected as far away as the United States, stoking fears
the virus is already spreading worldwide.
Wuhan’s local government said it would shut down all urban transport
networks and suspend outgoing flights from 10 a.m. (0200 GMT) on Thursday,
state media said. Domestic media said some airlines were operating after the
deadline, however.
State media broadcast images of one of Wuhan’s key transport hubs, the
Hankou rail station, nearly deserted, with gates blocked or barred. The
government is urging citizens not to leave the city, except in special
circumstances.
Guards were patrolling major highways, one resident told Reuters,
although the shutdown notice had not mentioned private cars leaving the city,
while videos on social media showed long queues at gas stations.
In contrast with its secrecy over the 2002-03 Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome (SARS) that killed nearly 800 people, China’s communist government has
this time provided regular updates to avoid panic ahead of the holidays.
Authorities had confirmed 571 cases and 17 deaths by the end of
Wednesday, China’s National Health Commission said. Earlier, it said another
393 suspected cases had been reported.
More
New China virus: Five questions scientists are asking
Researchers are racing to find out more
about the epidemiology and genetic sequence of the coronavirus spreading in
Asia and beyond.
22 January 2020
Health
authorities around the world are worried about an outbreak of a mysterious virus that
originated in Wuhan, China, last month. Officials there have confirmed more
than 500 cases of the infection, which causes a respiratory illness, and 17
deaths. Several cases have been spotted elsewhere in Asia and one in the United States.
Efforts to understand the outbreak are especially crucial, because mass travel from Friday for the Chinese New Year holiday could spread the virus farther and faster.
How does the virus spread?
The most urgent question surrounding the outbreak is determining how it spreads. Chinese authorities have confirmed that some cases have been caused by transmission between humans, but it’s still unclear whether this can happen routinely.“What’s critical to understand is whether that’s occurring at a rate and with a level of efficiency which would sustain a human epidemic,” says Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist at Imperial College London. Monitoring the rate at which new cases appear, and when symptoms began for each case, should tell scientists how easily the virus can pass between humans and whether the outbreak has the potential to persist.
How deadly is the virus?
High rates of pneumonia among the first people infected had many researchers worried that the Wuhan virus was especially pernicious. Those concerns have receded slightly, as more mild cases turn up. With at least 17 deaths in more than 500 cases, the virus does not seem to be as deadly as SARS — which killed an estimated 11% of the people it infected. But “It’s too early to be sanguine about the severity,” Ferguson says.
More
Many of China's provinces cut 2020 GDP growth targets despite easing trade tension
January 22, 2020 /
4:52 AM
BEIJING, Jan 22
(Reuters) - About two-thirds of China’s provinces, regions and municipalities
have cut their 2020 growth targets from last year, despite easing trade
tensions with the United States.
The lower regional targets reinforce expectations of a further slowdown
in the world’s second-largest economy, after gross domestic product (GDP)
expanded at its slowest pace in nearly three decades in 2019, weighed down by
weak domestic and global demand.
Of China’s provincial-level regions, 22 including Beijing, Guangdong,
Zhejiang, Henan, Hainan, and Fujian, set lower growth targets this year
compared to last, a similar number to last year.
Beijing, Shanghai, and the southern export hub of Guangdong all dropped
their targets from 6-6.5% growth to “around 6%” in 2020, in line with the
expected change to the national target.
This year is seen as crucial for the ruling Communist Party to fulfill
its goal of doubling GDP and
incomes in the decade to 2020.
At least 11 provincial-level regions missed their 2019 GDP targets,
according to preliminary statistics released by local governments.
Targets for 2020 ranged from around 5% growth - for the northeastern
province of Heilongjiang and the northern city of Tianjin - to around 9% growth
for the Tibet Autonomous Region.
Policy sources have told Reuters that Beijing plans to set a lower
national growth target of around 6% this year from last year’s 6-6.5%, relying
on increased infrastructure spending to ward off a sharper slowdown.
Key national targets are due to be announced in March.
More
Oil and Copper Are Falling. That’s a Bad Omen for the Global Economy.
Jan.
22, 2020 at 5:28 p.m. ET
Strength in
commodities is turning to weakness, and that can only mean one thing—it’s time
to start worrying about the global economy again.
More
George Orwell.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the dismal continent of Europe again.
The EUSSR is losing it’s second largest economy in just about a week, equal
to the 19 smallest EU economies combined.
Germany the largest EU economy is on the cusp of recession.
Italy is, well Italy. The government there is expecting a hammering at
the weekend’s coming local election.
In France everyone is at war with everyone.
Italy's Di Maio quits as 5-Star leader - party source
January 22, 2020 /
7:01 AM
ROME (Reuters) -
Luigi Di Maio resigned as leader of Italy’s co-governing 5-Star movement on
Wednesday, a party source said, as it seeks to stem a wave of defections that
threatens the government’s parliamentary majority.
Di Maio, who is foreign minister, told 5-Star’s other ministers of his
decision at a meeting on Wednesday and will announce it publicly at 5 p.m.
(1600 GMT), the source said.
Di Maio will speak at 1600 GMT, his spokesman confirmed, declining
further comment.
While his resignation is not expected to bring down the government, it
underscores deep divisions within 5-Star and injects further uncertainty into
already fractious relations with its coalition partner, the centre-left
Democratic Party (PD).
Italian government bond yields rose 5-8 bps across the curve in early
trading on reports of Di Maio’s resignation, and the cost of insuring exposure
to the country’s sovereign debt also jumped
The decision by Di Maio, who is expected to remain as foreign minister,
comes days before a regional election in Emilia Romagna in which the right-wing
League is threatening to end 75 years of uninterrupted PD rule. That outcome
could put the government’s survival at risk.
“Di Maio’s resignation is very ominous for the future of the ruling
coalition,” said Francesco Galietti, head of political risk consultancy Policy
Sonar.
“The PD has just announced a major rebranding is in the works and these
things, leaders quitting and party overhauls, only happen in Italy when the
house is on fire.”
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte earlier said he would respect any decision
that Di Maio made. “I am sure he would take such an initiative with great
responsibility,” Conte told Italian radio RTL 102.5, declining to comment
further.
The anti-establishment 5-Star won 33% of the vote in a national election
in 2018, but since then its popularity has fallen sharply and recent polls put
it at around 16%.
After that ballot yielded no clear winner, 5-Star initially formed a
coalition with the League, switching to an alliance with the PD last September
after League leader Matteo Salvini walked out of government.
Di Maio, who was just 31 when he was elected 5-Star leader in 2017, was
sceptical about joining forces with the PD but, with many of the party’s
lawmakers opposed to fresh elections, he was reluctantly persuaded to sign up
by 5-Star’s founder Beppe Grillo.
More
Pension protest at France's biggest hydro-dam creates power shortfall
January 22, 2020
/ 7:57 AM
PARIS (Reuters) - Energy workers temporarily halted power generation at
France’s biggest hydro-electricity plant on Wednesday in protest against
President Emmanuel Macron’s overhaul of the pension system.
The shutdown took place as hard-left unions resort to wildcat actions to
demonstrate against a reform they say will force workers to stay in the labour
force longer. Macron has largely stood his ground during weeks of strikes and
street marches.
The outage at the Grand’Maison plant in the Alps left France needing to
import power early in the morning as a cold snap gripped the country. Those
supplies meant disruptions at factories and hardship for the French public were
avoided.
At 0530 GMT power demand stood at 82.6 gigawatts (GW) as sub-zero
temperatures pushed up heating needs, while available capacity was 82.4 GW,
data from grid operator RTE showed.
The disruption at Grand’Maison, carried out by members of the CGT union,
came just a day after workers from the same union cut power to the world’s
largest fresh food wholesale market, Rungis, outside Paris.
---- After Tuesday’s deliberate power outage at Rungis, RTE and state-run utility EDF (EDF.PA) said they would take legal action against those behind such acts.
CGT boss Philippe Martinez denied power cuts were an act of sabotage.
“When there are strikes, things don’t work,” Martinez told BFM TV. “EDF management is pursuing through the judiciary those behind the outages. They refuse to recognise the discontent.”
Macron’s proposed pension reform would be the biggest overhaul of the system since World War Two.
More
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, ex-president of the
European Commission. Scotch
connoisseur.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
New molecule harnesses full visible spectrum of sunlight
Jan. 21, 2020 /
4:02 PM
Jan. 21 (UPI) -- Scientists have discovered a molecule that can take advantage of
the entire visible spectrum of sunlight. The molecule can both efficiently
absorb sunlight and operate as a catalyst, triggering the conversion of solar
energy into hydrogen, which can be used as fuel.In a new paper, published this week in the journal Nature Chemistry, scientists suggest the novel molecule can be used to build more efficient solar cells and accelerate the transition to alternative, climate-friendly fuels like hydrogen
"The whole idea is that we can use photons from the sun and
transform it into hydrogen," lead researcher Claudia Turro, a chemistry
professor at Ohio State University, said in a news release. "To put it
simply, we are saving the energy from sunlight and storing it into chemical
bonds so it can be used at a later time."
Turro and her colleagues were able to find a particle that absorbs the
sun's low-energy wavelengths, the infrared portion of the spectrum.
"What makes it work is that the system is able to put the molecule
into an excited state, where it absorbs the photon and is able to store two
electrons to make hydrogen," Turro said. "This storing of two
electrons in a single molecule derived from two photons, and using them
together to make hydrogen, is unprecedented."
Most previous efforts to make full use of the sunlight spectrum have
focused on ultraviolet light, and most relied on catalysts made of two or more
molecules to convert solar energy into hydrogen.
Attempts to use a
single-molecule catalyst proved inefficient.
Scientists found that a single rhodium molecule can absorb the entirety
of the visible light spectrum, from infrared to ultraviolent, and can catalyze
the conversion of low-energy wavelengths into hydrogen without losing much
energy.
To do all this, the molecule must be in an excited state. In the lab,
scientists used an LED to excite rhodium molecules suspended in an acid
solution.
"I think the reason it works is because the molecule is difficult
to oxidize," Turro said. "And we have to have renewable energy. Just
imagine if we could use sunlight for our energy instead of coal or gas or oil,
what we could do to address climate change."
Scientists are now working to find a molecule that behaves similarly to
rhodium, as the rare metal is expensive to process. Researchers also want to
find a way to make the single-molecule catalyst produce hydrogen for a longer
period of time.
"On
the whole human beings want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the
time.”
George
Orwell.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December
DJIA: 28,538 +91 Up. NASDAQ: 8,973 +125 Up.
SP500: 3,231 +114 Up.
All higher again, but it’s
not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a
rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock
bubble as an exit rally.
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