Saturday, 12 October 2019

Weekend Update 12/10/2019 A “Trade Deal.” A Blizzard, & A Blackout.


Baltic Dry Index. 1924 -05  Brent Crude 60.51  Spot Gold 1489

Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 19 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
The USA v EU trade war starts October 18. Just 6 days away.

Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.

H. L. Mencken.

Desperate for a USA v China trade deal at any price, President Trump declared victory yesterday, and grasped at the straws of an all but “invisible” trade deal. Details to come later, perhaps in five or six weeks.

According to Reuters, “Trump, who is eager to show farmers in political swing states that he has their backs, lauded China for agreeing to buy as much as $50 billion in agricultural products.” However no time frame was mentioned.

Well maybe, but China was always a willing buyer of US beans and corn before President Trump started out on his lose – lose anti-China trade war. Much of the produce is used as animal feed especially for pigs. China has the world’s largest pig herd by far.

With an African swine fever epidemic underway in China and much of east Asia wiping out up to 50 percent of China’s pig herd, does China now need $50 billion of US agricultural products? Besides, US farmers are having a terrible weather year.

I suspect the markets will eventually be underwhelmed by yesterday’s “trade deal.”

October 11, 2019 / 9:55 AM

U.S. outlines 'Phase 1' trade deal with China, suspends October tariff hike

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday outlined the first phase of a deal to end a trade war with China and suspended a threatened tariff hike, but officials on both sides said much more work needed to be done before an accord could be agreed.

The emerging deal, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections, would represent the biggest step by the two countries in 15 months to end a tariff tit-for-tat that has whipsawed financial markets and slowed global growth.

But Friday’s announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written.

He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.

“I think we have a fundamental understanding on the key issues. We’ve gone through a significant amount of paper, but there is more work to do,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said as the two sides gathered with Trump at the White House. “We will not sign an agreement unless we get and can tell the president that this is on paper.”

With Chinese Vice Premier Liu He sitting across a desk from him in the Oval Office after two days of talks between negotiators, the president told reporters that the two sides were very close to ending their trade dispute.

“There was a lot of friction between the United States and China, and now it’s a lovefest. That’s a good thing,” he said.

Liu took a different tone in his remarks, however.

“We have made substantial progress in many fields. We are happy about it. We’ll continue to make efforts,” Liu said.

China’s official state-owned news organization Xinhua said that both sides “agreed to make the efforts towards a final agreement.”

In an editorial published online by the state-run People’s Daily newspaper on Saturday, China called the latest round of talks constructive, frank and efficient and noted that while the two sides were moving toward a resolution, “it is impossible to resolve the problem by putting arbitrary pressure on the Chinese side.”

----“I’m unsure that calling what was announced by President Trump an agreement is justified,” said Scott Kennedy, a China trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“If they couldn’t agree on a text, that must mean they’re not done. Wishing an agreement does not one make. This isn’t a skinny deal. It’s an invisible one.”

Mnuchin said the president had agreed not to proceed with a hike in tariffs to 30% from 25% on about $250 billion in Chinese goods that was supposed to have gone into effect on Tuesday.

But U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said Trump had not made a decision about tariffs that were subject to go into effect in December.

----The world’s two largest economies have made progress in their trade dispute before without sealing a deal. In May U.S. officials accused China of walking away from a sweeping agreement that was nearly finished over a refusal to make changes to Chinese laws that would have ensured its enforceability.

Trump had said previously he would not be satisfied with a partial deal to resolve his effort to change China’s trade, intellectual property and industrial policy practices, which he argues cost millions of U.S. jobs. On Friday he said he had decided that a phased approach was appropriate.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china/u-s-outlines-phase-1-trade-deal-with-china-suspends-october-tariff-hike-idUKKBN1WQ10Z

Oct. 11, 2019 / 3:41 PM

Fall blizzard hits Great Plains before harvest, burying crops

Livestock in pastures could face food shortages.

EVANSVILLE, Ind., Oct. 11 (UPI) -- A rare fall blizzard this week has buried thousands of acres of crops from Montana to Minnesota.

Farmers across the Great Plains were scrambling to get their crops out of the fields earier this week before the potentially record-setting snowfall began Thursday.

"We were out Monday and Tuesday, and we were hoping to get out Wednesday but we got rain that day," said Tysen Rosenau, a corn and soybean grower in Carrington, N.D. "Then the snow hit. I got about a third of [my crop] out. Some guys got a lot less."

With more than a foot of snow blanketing parts of the parts of North and South Dakota and surrounding states, farmers are predicted to lose much of their soy and corn harvests. Unharvested cereal crops, like wheat and barley, are lost. And regional potato and sugar beet harvests are also in jeopardy.


"We're really looking at a tough situation," said Daryl Lies, the president of the North Dakota Farm Bureau.

The unseasonable blizzard comes after an already poor growing year.

Historically heavy rains and flooding pummeled the Midwest and Great Plains in the spring. Many farmers were prevented from planting entirely, and of those who did planted late in the season. That meant the crops had to be harvested later than normal.

Then, before harvest could begin this fall, historic rain and flooding returned to the Great Plains.

"Everybody has been too wet," said Scott Vanderwal, a corn and soy grower in Volga, S.D., Dakota who serves as the South Dakota Farm Bureau president. "It's harvest time and the weather is not cooperating. We can't get out there."

As of Monday, only 15 percent of the nation's corn and 14 percent of the soybeans, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In addition to the planted crops, the region's livestock face possible food shortages.

"Cattle are out in their pastures yet," said Lies, who also is a livestock producer. "When you get all that wet snow, it buries the grass and makes it hard for the cows to get to it. There are guys who are going to have to try and get hay out to feed them."

This is a tall order during a blizzard, when it is easy to get lost or stuck in the snow, Lies said. What's more, hay is in short supply across much of the Great Plains because the unusually wet spring and fall have prevented many farmers from planting and harvesting that, as well.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/10/11/Fall-blizzard-hits-Great-Plains-before-harvest-burying-crops/7291570818176/?ls=4

Between President Trump’s trade wars, US agriculture’s war with the weather, the General Motors strike, and now much of California suffering from power cuts, how long before all this economic drag starts to show up in the wider general US economy?

California outages ease after wind, fire danger move south

By OLGA R. RODRIGUEZ
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — The lights were back on Friday for most of the nearly 2 million Northern California residents who lost electricity when the state’s largest utility switched it off this week in an effort to prevent wildfires.

The threat of widespread outages loomed in Southern California after the winds moved to the Los Angeles area, where a wildfire fueled by strong Santa Ana winds prompted officials to order the evacuation of 100,000 people from their homes in the foothills of the San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles County.

In that fire, one man went into cardiac arrest and died at the scene.

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. restored power in Northern California after workers inspected power lines to make sure it was safe. The winds had increased the possibility of transmission lines toppling to the ground or being hit by tree branches and starting wildfires.

The utility said it found 30 instances of weather-related damage to its equipment during the shutdown.

By Friday evening, PG&E said it had restored power to 97% of the 738,000 homes and businesses affected by the deliberate blackout that began Wednesday. About 21,000 customers remained without power.

Experts have said there are between two and three people for every electrical customer.

----Some people in the largely rural Butte, Plumas and Yuba counties and in Northern California’s wine country counties were in their third day without electricity.

Butte County is where a fire started by PG&E equipment last year decimated the town of Paradise and killed 85 people. In Napa and Sonoma counties north of San Francisco, the outages began on the two-year anniversary of deadly wildfires that killed 44 and destroyed thousands of homes.

PG&E faced hostility and second-guessing over the shut-offs, which prompted runs on supplies like coolers and generators and forced institutions to shut down.

Ryan Fisher, a partner in consumer goods and retail practice at global consultancy A.T. Kearney estimated $100 million in $200 million in fresh food was likely lost because of the outages along with $30 million a day in consumer spending.
More
https://apnews.com/5fe83d4daed64b5daa67ef5e5d81a936

Finally, some cryptocurrencies news. Was it Black Friday for Libra and “Grams?” When it comes to issuing funny money, governments don’t like any competition.

October 11, 2019 / 8:57 PM

Facebook's Libra currency abandoned by major financial companies

(Reuters) - Facebook Inc’s ambitious efforts to establish a global digital currency called Libra suffered severe setbacks on Friday, as major payment companies including Mastercard and Visa Inc quit the group behind the project.

The two companies announced they would leave the association Friday afternoon, as did EBay Inc, Stripe Inc. and Latin American payments company Mercado Pago. They join PayPal Holdings Inc which exited the group a week ago, as global regulators continue to air concerns about the project.

The latest exodus leaves the Libra Association without any remaining major payments companies as members, meaning it can no longer count on a global player to help consumers turn their currency into Libra and facilitate transactions.

The remaining association members, including Lyft and Vodafone, consist mainly of venture capital, telecommunications, blockchain and technology companies, as well as nonprofit groups.

“Visa has decided not to join the Libra Association at this time,” the company said in a statement. “We will continue to evaluate and our ultimate decision will be determined by a number of factors, including the Association’s ability to fully satisfy all requisite regulatory expectations.”

Facebook’s head of the project, former PayPal executive David Marcus, cautioned on Twitter against “reading the fate of Libra into this update,” although he acknowledged “it’s not great news in the short term.”

Libra will press ahead with plans to formally charter the association in three days despite the setbacks, Dante Disparte, its head of policy and communication, said in a statement.

----Facebook announced plans to launch the digital currency in June 2020 in partnership with other Libra Association members. Almost immediately afterwards, the project faced relentless scrutiny from global regulators, who said it raised a host of serious questions that the group had yet to answer.

France and Germany last month pledged to block Libra from operating in Europe and backed the development of a public cryptocurrency instead. And U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the project could not advance before addressing serious privacy, money laundering, consumer protection and financial stability concerns that must be addressed.

The rapid succession of exits by major financial companies Friday afternoon suggested that scrutiny was taking its toll.
More

October 11, 2019 / 11:02 PM

U.S. SEC halts Telegram's $1.7 billion digital token offering

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. authorities said on Friday they have halted a $1.7 billion unregistered digital token offering by the messaging service Telegram Group Inc and its TON Issuer subsidiary.

The Securities and Exchange Commission said it had received a temporary restraining order against the two offshore entities, which the regulator said had failed to register to sell 2.9 billion digital tokens called “Grams” to initial investors globally, including 1 billion to U.S. buyers. The move marks the latest effort by the agency to crack down on the fledgling cryptocurrency industry. 

The SEC has taken the position that initial coin offerings are securities offerings and therefore subject to SEC offering rules, which require firms to file registration and disclosure documents.

“Our emergency action today is intended to prevent Telegram from flooding the U.S. markets with digital tokens that we allege were unlawfully sold,” Stephanie Avakian, co-director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement, said in a statement.

Telegram promised to give the coins to buyers when it launched its blockchain by Oct. 31, when the purchasers and the company would be able to sell them into U.S. markets, the SEC said.

A lawyer for the companies did not respond immediately to requests for comment.

If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner.

H. L. Mencken.

This weekend’s musical diversion.  Boccherini again. The top Italian composing in Spain. Turn up the volume and enjoy.

Luigi Boccherini / Luciano Berio: Ritirata notturna di Madrid (1975)


12th October 1492, Christopher Columbus's expedition made landfall on a Caribbean island he named San Salvador (possibly Watling Island, Bahamas). Columbus believed he had reached East Asia (Gregorian, 21st October.)

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September

DJIA: 26,917 +57 Up. NASDAQ: 7,999 +62 Up. SP500: 2,977 +61 Up.
Another inconclusive month, but all three moved up weakly.   I would not rely on nor take such a weak buy signal.

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