Baltic Dry Index. 1767 +10 Brent Crude 58.37
Spot Gold 1505
Never ending Brexit now October 31,
maybe. 26 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs
Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to
November, maybe.
The Predators' Ball: The Inside Story of Drexel Burnham and the Rise of the Junk Bond Raiders
During the 1980s,
Michael Milken at Drexel Burnham Lambert was the Billionaire Junk Bond King. He
invented such things as "the highly confident letter" (I'm highly
confident that I can raise the money you need to buy company X) and "the
blind pool" (Here's a billion dollars: let us help you buy a company), and
he financed the biggest corporate raiders--men like Carl Icahn
We open this weekend thinking the
unthinkable. Can the WeWork debacle bring down SoftBank Group? Is Silly Con Valley grossly overvalued? Are
we at yet another Drexel Burnham moment? I don’t know and I hope not, but I’m
left wondering. Bunker time!!!
Below more spectacular fallout from the
WeWork 47 billion implosion. Much more fallout still to come, I suspect, all
the more so if the global economy plunges into a new recession. In any recession WeWork’s business model
simply implodes in an even more spectacular worldwide office commercial real
estate crash.
Will WeWork achieve the unthinkable,
taking out SoftBank Group? After SoftBank Group, is it sunset for Silly Con Valley? And if it is, look out below!
SoftBank's plans for second mega-fund hit by WeWork debacle
October 4, 2019 / 4:26 AM
(Reuters) - SoftBank Group founder and CEO
Masayoshi Son is struggling to raise money for a second massive technology
investment fund in the wake of the failed public offering of office-rental
company WeWork and sliding valuations of other major investments, according to
two people familiar with the situation.
Son is still
determined to go ahead with Vision Fund 2 even though some lieutenants have
urged a delay, the two people with knowledge of SoftBank’s internal discussions
told Reuters. But it is likely to be far smaller, at least at the outset, than
the $108 billion that SoftBank said it had lined up when it announced the fund
in July, these people said.
Major
investors have yet to sign on, leaving a $38 billion pledge from publicly
traded SoftBank Group itself as the only large commitment, according to the
sources. And the size of that pledge may itself be in doubt given some of the
recent investment setbacks it has suffered and the lack of available cash on its
balance sheet, according to a Reuters analysis.
Vision Fund
and SoftBank Group declined to comment on the progress of Vision Fund 2.
The implosion in the valuation of
WeWork and questions about its business model have dented Son’s reputation as a
savvy investor and point to a big writedown by the first Vision Fund. SoftBank
and the Vision Fund together poured more than $10 billion into the company,
investing some of that at a valuation of $47 billion in January. But WeWork
recently abandoned plans for an initial public offering that would have pegged
the company’s worth at just $10-12 billion.
If the
second fund comes in well short of Son’s goal or gets scrapped it will have
broad implications for Silicon Valley venture capitalists, entrepreneurs and
Wall Street financiers.
The first
Vision Fund, which raised $97 billion, upended the tech investing world with
massive bets on fast-growing but unproven companies. It was bigger than the
aggregate amount raised by the entire U.S. venture capital industry in 2018,
giving Son a massive influence over the start-up market.
Skeptics say
the troubles at WeWork and the poor public market performance of money-losing
companies such as Uber Technologies Inc and Slack Technologies Inc will trigger
a big decline in the value of numerous so-called “unicorn” startups worth more
than a billion dollars.
“The
radiation is spreading everywhere,” said Scott Galloway, an author and one-time
entrepreneur who teaches at New York University and who has been closely
following the WeWork turmoil.
To be sure,
there are investments in the 80-plus companies Vision Fund has financed that
appear to be paying off quickly. Delivery company DoorDash, for one, has
rocketed in value, at least on paper, from $1.4 billion last March to $12.6
billion in May. SoftBank, which owns about a third of the Vision Fund, in July
reported a 62% return on its investment, including management and performance
fees.
----- Back in July, SoftBank said a group of companies, including technology behemoths Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp, as well as a slew of Japanese banks, and Britain’s Standard Chartered Plc would contribute to Vision Fund 2. But it is unclear how firm those commitments are, and none of the corporate investors have a track record of making multi-billion-dollar commitments to an outside venture fund.
Microsoft,
Apple and Standard Chartered declined to comment.
The Japanese
institutions are mostly contributing only small amounts, sources familiar with
the matter said. At least one financial investor is planning to make loans to
the fund rather than contribute cash.
Japanese
investment bank Nomura Holdings Inc, which was lead underwriter for the IPO of
SoftBank’s telecom unit, has decided not to put money into the new fund,
according to a source familiar with its plans. Nomura declined to
comment.
Saudi
Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), which contributed $45 billion to the
first Vision Fund, does not have large amounts of fresh cash to invest until it
receives payment from a pending asset sale or proceeds from the planned public
offering of the oil firm Aramco, according to people familiar with its
finances. The Aramco offering is long delayed and there is no guarantee it will
go ahead even next year.
The United
Arab Emirates’ Mubadala fund still intends to invest in Vision Fund 2 but is
seeking more say in the investments, a source familiar with the discussions
said.
---- STRAINS ON SOFTBANK
The worsening turmoil at WeWork will continue to be a strain on SoftBank and the first fund. The price of WeWork bonds has sunk, its credit ratings have been slashed and big cutbacks are expected at the company, including the possibility of thousands of layoffs. Some real estate investors and analysts say that without further investment from Son or his entities, it will be difficult to stabilize given the size of its future financial commitments.
More
Drexel Burnham Lambert
[On saying to CEO Fred
Joseph that Drexel should use its clout from junk bonds to back the raiders in
takeovers.] Robber barons of the future. These are they guys who are building
empires.
Leon Black
This weekend’s musical diversion. Albinoni, the oboe king.
Tomaso Albinoni - Concerto for two oboes in C major, op. 9, No. 9 - The King's Consort
Tomaso Albinoni
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished August
DJIA: 26,403
+52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down. SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but all three shows signs of weakening.
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