Baltic Dry Index. 1757 -46 Brent
Crude 57.99 Spot Gold 1508
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 27 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
The USA v EU trade war starts.
I learned early that there is nothing new
in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills.
Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen
again. I’ve never forgotten that.
Jesse Livermore
After a profit taking bounce on Wall Street yesterday,
ahead today’s US employment figures, Asia, Europe, and America are all now
hanging on today’s numbers, next week’s USA v China trade talks, and whether
the Fed later in the month cuts by a quarter of one percent, or a Trump
re-election surprise half of one percent. If they unexpectedly cut by a half,
bet on a new recession arriving early next year.
As goes those key issues, likely goes the US stock market
in the ever dangerous month for stocks of “crash” October. As goes October,
likely goes the quarter. As goes the quarter, likely goes the year for stocks.
To this old dinosaur market follower, trying to pick up
nickels in front of steamrollers is a mug’s game. It’s time to be safely out of
stocks and in cash and precious metals, ahead of Brexit, and a US election year
that’ likely to be nasty, volatile, and if the stock market heads down, force
the Fed into the insanity of negative interest rates and “helicopter money.”
Asia stocks up slightly in cautious trade as focus shifts to U.S. payrolls
October 4, 2019 /
2:11 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian stocks edged higher on Friday, thanks to gains on Wall Street, but the
mood was cautious before a key U.S. job report that could help determine
whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates further.
Investors have been caught out by a set of weak U.S. data this week, including surveys on services and manufacturing sectors, deepening fears the Sino-U.S. trade war is starting to hurt growth in the world’s biggest economy.
“We’ll probably see a bounce in Asian shares, but then nervousness will creep into the markets as the day progresses,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.3%. Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 lost 0.17%, but Australian shares edged 0.05% higher.
U.S. stock futures ESc1 fell 0.15% in Asia on Friday, though that followed a 0.80% increase in the S&P 500 on Wall Street overnight on hopes that future Fed rate cuts will support corporate profits.
“The bounce on Wall Street is not a definitive sign. It’s actually pessimistic for stocks that two-year yields are falling this much. It shows the bond market hasn’t gotten on board with this positive growth story,” AMP’s Oliver said.
That sentiment was underscored by a frail performance for world stocks in recent weeks, hurt by political uncertainty in the United Stated and Hong Kong, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Brexit and a drumroll of weak global data.
In Asia, excluding Japan, equities were on course for the third weekly decline, their worst performance since four weeks of declines ended Aug. 16.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 2.6% for the week, on course for its biggest weekly decline since Aug. 2, pressured by worries about trade friction and a resurgent yen.
Hong Kong shares .HSI were down 0.13% and though they are on track for a 0.65% weekly gain, sentiment is fragile as the territory's government mulls emergency laws to contain months of often violent protest against China's rule of the former British colony.
More
Service side of U.S. economy grows at slowest pace in 3 years, survey shows
Oct. 3, 2019 /
2:29 PM
Oct. 3 (UPI) -- The U.S. service-sector business grew in September for
the 116th consecutive month, but at a slower rate than anticipated, the New
York-based Institute for Supply Management said Thursday.
The non-manufacturing index fell from 56.4 percent in August to 52.6
percent in September, the weakest growth in three years. Economists expected
the index to hit 55.3 percent in September.
The index reached a post-recession peak of 60.8 percent in
the fall of 2018. Rates above 50 percent represent growth and anything below 50
percent is considered a contraction.Respondents in the ISM survey reported a slowing of new growth, trade uncertainty and flat employment levels, said Anthony Nieves, chairman of the ISM's Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
Among the related indexes that fell in September, were employment (50.4 percent), production, (55.2 percent), new orders (53.7 percent) and inventories (53 percent). Imports contracted from 50.5 percent in August to 49 percent in September.
More
All Signs Point to Soft U.S. Jobs Report After Run of Weak Data
By Katia Dmitrieva and Reade Pickert
Updated on October 3, 2019, 8:51 PM GMT+1
·
·
Fed may cut rates again unless payrolls
surprisingly strong
Hong Kong’s August retail sales plunge in worst monthly decline on record
By Steven
Russolillo Published: Oct 3, 2019
1:51 a.m. ET
Months of protests have hit nearly every aspect of the Hong Kong
economy, weighing on tourism, consumer spending, stocks and economic growth.
The latest indicator to take a hit: retail sales.
Value of retail sales fell 23% in August from a year ago, the worst
monthly decline on record, according to the Hong Kong Census and Statistics
Department. Luxury items have been the biggest victims, according to the data
released Wednesday. Sales of items such as jewelry, watches, clocks and other
valuable gifts dropped 47% from a year ago, a record decline.
Department-store sales dropped 30% from a year ago. The protests have
repeatedly disrupted traffic and prompted many stores to shut down. The Sogo
department store in Causeway Bay, one of the biggest in Hong Kong, has been at
the center of several protests in recent months, prompting it to close its
doors at times.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the steep drop in inbound
tourists in August, mostly due to mainland Chinese visitors electing against
visiting Hong Kong, was the main catalyst for the drop. “We do not expect a
turnaround in retail sales before year end and are concerned about a higher
unemployment rate,” it said.
I knew something was wrong somewhere, but I
couldn’t spot it exactly. But if something was coming and I didn’t know where
from, I couldn’t be on my guard against it. That being the case I’d better be
out of the market.
Jesse Livermore
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more on that new USA v EU trade war. With friends like trade war
team Trump, who in Europe needs enemies? Expect the EU to retaliate next year
like China, attempting to hit President Trump’s core base supporters, and
crucial re-election states.
If the new tariffs go ahead on October 18, Scotland, Spain and Ireland are
sunk! Spain is already reeling from the collapse of Thomas Cook, leaving
thousands of British and German tourists absent from their usual, coastal
resorts and watering holes up and down the Med.
This double blow to the Spanish economy is enough to turn anyone working,
or now not working there, to drink. Will that be Irish or Scots whisky, now
that some distressed, lower priced whisky is about to become available just in
time for Christmas?
U.S. hits Scotch whisky, Italian cheese, French wine with 25% tariffs
October 2, 2019 /
10:44 PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The Trump administration slapped 25% tariffs on French wine,
Italian cheese and single-malt Scotch whisky — but spared Italian wine, pasta
and olive oil — in retaliation for European Union subsidies on large aircraft.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office released a list of hundreds of
European products that will get new tariffs, including cookies, salami, butter
and yoghurt - but in many cases applied to only some EU countries, including
German camera parts and blankets produced in the United Kingdom.
The list includes UK-made sweaters, pullovers, cashmere items and wool clothing,
as well as olives from France and Spain, EU-produced pork sausage and other
pork products other than ham, and German coffee. The new tariffs are to take
effect as early as Oct. 18.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said it would “continually
re-evaluate these tariffs based on our discussions with the EU” and expects to
enter talks in a bid to resolve the dispute.
Still some Italian foods — Parmesan Reggiano, Romano and provolone
cheese — were hit with tariffs as were Italian fruits, clams and yoghurt. Also
getting new tariffs are German and British camera parts, industrial microwave
ovens, printed books, sweet biscuits and waffles.
---- Joseph Profaci, executive director of the North American Olive Oil Association, said a substantial portion of the imports initially threatened with tariffs were not on the list.
“We’re still digesting what it will mean for the industry, but the total
universe of oil affected has been greatly reduced,” he said.
Speciality food importers in August had urged the Trump administration
to skip the tariffs, saying “there are few to no domestic products” that could
replace the imported items.
The Specialty Food Association said the tariffs would affect 14,000 U.S.
speciality food retailers and over 20,000 other food retailers.
More
Scottish whisky makers reel over U.S. tariffs in row over EU subsidies
October 3, 2019 /
11:03 AM
LONDON
(Reuters) - Scottish whisky makers said on Thursday jobs and investment were at
risk after the United States slapped a 25% tariff on their single malt spirit
and France said the European Union could respond in the row over EU aircraft
subsidies.
The World Trade Organization gave the United States a green light to
impose tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of EU goods annually in the long-running
case, a move that threatens to ignite a tit-for-tat transatlantic trade war.
“If the American administration rejects the hand that has been held out
by France and the European Union, we are preparing ourselves to react with
sanctions,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Thursday.
Washington said that, after 15 years of litigation, it would impose 10%
tariffs on European-made Airbus planes and 25% duties on French wine, Scotch
and Irish whiskies, and cheese from across the continent.
The measures would follow tariffs levied by the United States and China
on hundreds of billions of dollars of each other’s goods in their more than
year-old trade war, which has dampened the outlook for the global economy.
“The tariff will put our competitiveness and Scotch Whisky’s market
share at risk,” Scotch Whisky Association Chief Executive Karen Betts said in a
statement, adding that it would hurt investment and job creation in the
industry.
The association, which called for restraint from all sides, said
single-malt whisky represented over half of the total value of British products
on the U.S. tariff list, amounting to over $460 million, even though the row
was over aircraft subsidies.
---- The tariffs heavily target products from the four countries in the consortium of European planemaker Airbus, including Spanish olives, British sweaters and woollens, and German tools and coffee, as well as British whisky and French wine.
Cheese from nearly every EU country will also be hit with the 25%
tariffs, but Italian wine and olive oil were spared, along with European
chocolate.
Shares in European luxury goods, including British fashion brand
Burberry, and drinks companies, such as France’s Remy Cointreau, rose on
Thursday, after the tariffs excluded cognac, champagne and leather goods.
More
U.S. tariffs on EU products to affect $1 billion euros of Spanish exports - farmers' association
October 3, 2019
/ 11:10 AM
MADRID (Reuters) - U.S. tariffs on European Union products would affect
around 1 billion euros of Spanish agricultural products per year, Spanish
agricultural association COAG said on Thursday.
The United States is the biggest market outside the European Union for
Spanish agricultural exports such as wine, oil, cheese and olives - all of
which are likely to be affected by the tariffs, the association said.
“It is totally unfair and disproportionate that the rural community has
to pay for a trade war with the European Union that has nothing to do with the
Spanish countryside,” COAG Secretary General Miguel Blanco said in a
statement.
German businesses urge EU to protect them after latest WTO decision
October 2, 2019
/ 4:07 PM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s DIHK chambers of commerce on
Wednesday urged the European Union to act strongly in order to protect their
interests in a tariff row between the EU and the United States, reacting to the
World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest decision. “It is important that the EU unanimously and decisively protect European economic interests,” DIHK President Eric Schweitzer said in a statement.
Germany’s businesses are extremely worried about the new escalation of the transatlantic trade conflict after the latest WTO decision, Schweitzer added.
The United States on Wednesday won approval to impose tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European goods over illegal EU subsidies handed to Airbus (AIR.PA), threatening to trigger a transatlantic trade war as the global economy falters.
EU will respond to U.S. tariffs with its own measures: Germany's Maas
October 4, 2019
/ 6:07 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The European Union will take retaliatory measures in
response to new U.S. tariffs on European goods, Germany’s foreign minister,
Heiko Maas, told newspapers in remarks published on Friday.
“The European Union now will have
to react and, after obtaining the approval of the World Trade Organisation,
probably impose punitive tariffs as well,” Maas, a member of Germany’s
governing Social Democrats told German newspaper group Funke.
His comments come after the WTO this week ruled that some subsidies EU
states paid to planemaker Airbus were illegal, giving the United States the
right to react with tariffs on EU-imported goods.
Washington announced plans for new tariffs on Wednesday.
Germany’s finance minister, Olaf Scholz, also a Social Democrat, on
Thursday said Europe should react prudently as trade conflicts in a globalised
world were in nobody’s interest.
A trade war is an economic conflict resulting from
extreme protectionism in which states raise or create tariffs or other trade barriers against each other in response to trade barriers created by the other party.
Increased protection causes both nations' output compositions to move towards
their autarky position.
Autarky
Autarky is the characteristic of self-sufficiency;
the term is usually applied to political states or their economic
systems. Autarky exists whenever an entity can survive or continue its
activities without external assistance or international trade.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
How to dismantle a nuclear bomb
Testing a new method for verification of weapons reduction
Date:
September 30, 2019
Source:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Summary:
MIT team successfully tests a new method for verification of weapons reduction.
How do weapons inspectors verify that a nuclear bomb has been
dismantled? An unsettling answer is: They don't, for the most part. When
countries sign arms reduction pacts, they do not typically grant inspectors
complete access to their nuclear technologies, for fear of giving away military
secrets.
Instead, past U.S.-Russia arms reduction treaties have called for the destruction
of the delivery systems for nuclear warheads, such as missiles and planes, but
not the warheads themselves. To comply with the START treaty, for example, the
U.S. cut the wings off B-52 bombers and left them in the Arizona desert, where
Russia could visually confirm the airplanes' dismemberment.
It's a logical approach but not a perfect one. Stored nuclear warheads
might not be deliverable in a war, but they could still be stolen, sold, or
accidentally detonated, with disastrous consequences for human society.
"There's a real need to preempt these kinds of dangerous scenarios
and go after these stockpiles," says Areg Danagoulian, an MIT nuclear
scientist. "And that really means a verified dismantlement of the weapons
themselves."
Now MIT researchers led by Danagoulian have successfully tested a new
high-tech method that could help inspectors verify the destruction of nuclear
weapons. The method uses neutron beams to establish certain facts about the
warheads in question -- and, crucially, uses an isotopic filter that physically
encrypts the information in the measured data.
A paper detailing the experiments, "A physically cryptographic
warhead verification system using neutron induced nuclear resonances," is
being published today in Nature Communications. The authors are
Danagoulian, who is the Norman C. Rasmussen Assistant Professor of Nuclear
Science and Engineering at MIT, and graduate student Ezra Engel. Danagoulian is
the corresponding author.
High-stakes testing
The experiment builds on previous theoretical work, by Danagoulian and
other members of his research group, who last year published two papers
detailing computer simulations of the system. The testing took place at the
Gaerttner Linear Accelerator (LINAC) Facility on the campus of Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, using a 15-meter long section of the facility's
neutron-beam line.
Nuclear warheads have a couple of characteristics that are central to
the experiment. They tend to use particular isotopes of plutonium -- varieties
of the element that have different numbers of neutrons. And nuclear warheads
have a distinctive spatial arrangement of materials.
The experiments consisted of sending a horizontal neutron beam first
through a proxy of the warhead, then through a lithium filter scrambling the
information. The beam's signal was then sent to a glass detector, where a
signature of the data, representing some of its key properties, was recorded.
The MIT tests were performed using molybdenum and tungsten, two metals that
share significant properties with plutonium and served as viable proxies for
it.
The test works, first of all, because the neutron beam can identify the
isotope in question.
More
Another weekend, and
I really hope the boffins at MIT get their new nuclear bomb dismantling kit
ready for Christmas 2020. I’m looking forwards to making my first attempt. Have
a great weekend everyone.
The Battle of Lake Poyang
ends.
The battle of Lake Poyang (鄱陽湖之戰) was a naval conflict which took place 30 August – 4 October 1363
between the rebel forces of Zhu
Yuanzhang and Chen Youliang during the Red Turban Rebellion which led to the fall of
the Yuan
dynasty. Chen Youliang besieged Nanchang with
a large fleet on Lake Poyang, one of China's largest freshwater lakes,
and Zhu Yuanzhang met his force with a smaller fleet. After an inconclusive
engagement exchanging fire, Zhu employed fire ships to burn the enemy tower ships
and destroyed their fleet. This was the last major battle of the rebellion
prior to the rise of the Ming dynasty.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 26,917 +57 Up. NASDAQ: 7,999 +62 Up. SP500: 2,977 +61 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three moved up weakly. I would not rely on nor take such a weak buy
signal.
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