Baltic Dry Index. 1809 -14 Brent
Crude 59.34 Spot Gold 1477
Never ending Brexit now October 31, maybe. 29 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.
"Liquidation sometimes is orderly, but more frequently degenerates into panic as the realization spreads that there is only so much money, not enough to enable everyone to sell out at the top."
Charles P. Kindleberger, author Manias, Panics
and Crashes.
For today’s big story, WeWork, scroll down to Crooks
Corner.
October, traditionally a bad month for stocks, got off to
an ominous start yesterday as US manufacturing numbers fell to a decade low.
Like it or not, global manufacturing has entered
recession, leaving overpriced stocks in danger of crashing, should the
manufacturing recession widen out into the general economy. While that doesn’t
happen every manufacturing recession, that’s the way to bet as it happens more
often than not.
For stock market bulls, it all comes down now to next
week’s high-level trade talks between China and America. Stock market weakness
puts intense pressure on trade war team Trump to make meaningful concessions. It
strengthens trade war team China’s negotiating stance.
Even with an interim trade deal between America and China,
after a relief rally, stocks may struggle if much of it is priced in, and technical
patterns suggest a market rolling over in a slow rounded top.
Any statistical confirmation during October, that the
manufacturing recession is spreading to the wider global economy, could easily
become the trigger for heavy profit taking and wider liquidation.
In a bull market your game is to buy and
hold until you believe that the bull market is near it’s end. To do this you
must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting
individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps!
Jesse Livermore
Global shares at one-month low on U.S. manufacturing shock
October 2, 2019
/ 2:11 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Global shares fell to one-month lows on Wednesday
after U.S. manufacturing activity tumbled to more than a decade low, sparking
worries that the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war is spreading to the U.S.
economy.
A slowdown in U.S. economic growth would remove one of the few remaining bright spots in the global economy and come just as Europe is seen as close to falling into recession.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS, covering 49 markets, dipped 0.06% to a low last seen in early September, after shedding 0.83% in the previous session.
In Asia, MSCI's ex-Japan Asia-Pacific shares index .MIAPJ0000PUS dropped 0.7%, with Australian shares falling 1.3% and South Korean shares shedding 1.4%. Japan's Nikkei .N225 slid 0.65%. China markets are closed for a one-week holiday.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index .HSI fell 0.8% in early trade after a market holiday. On Tuesday, Hong Kong police shot a teenage protester, the first to be hit by live ammunition in almost four months of unrest in the Chinese-ruled city.
Data on Hong Kong September retail sales is due later on Wednesday.
“Nothing other than a terrible number is conceivable here,” ING chief Asia-Pacific economist Rob Carnell said in a note, adding that he was watching Hong Kong events “with a growing sense of despair.”
Adding to tensions in Asia, North Korea carried out at least one more projectile launch on Wednesday, a day after it announced it will hold working-level talks with the United States at the weekend.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 1.23% to hit four-week lows.
Selling was triggered after the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) index of factory activity, one of the most closely-watched data on U.S. manufacturing, dropped 1.3 points to 47.8, the lowest level since June 2009.
A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Markets had been expecting the index to rise back above 50.
The data came after euro zone manufacturing data showed the sharpest
contraction in almost seven years.
More
U.S. Economy’s Slowdown Spurs Concern It’s Nearing Stall Speed
By Reade Pickert
·
·
Slower growth leaves economy in fragile position
to shocks
Japan’s Worst Bond Auction in Years Spurs Global Sell-Off
By Masaki Kondo and Kazumi Miura
October 1, 2019, 6:44 AM GMT+1 Updated on October 1, 2019,
11:58 AM GMT+1
Japanese bond traders just had a taste of what it’s like when the
nation’s central bank and pension fund aren’t there to support them.
Bond futures tumbled by the most since 2016, triggering margin calls for
investors, after the worst 10-year debt auction in three years. Yields across
the curve climbed, while the sell-off also spilled into Treasuries and European
debt.
Behind the sudden collapse lies the Bank of Japan’s decision to potentially slash bond purchases in October, and an announcement that the Government Pension Investment Fund is pivoting toward buying more foreign debt. All of a sudden, investors were left wondering what other changes were in store.
“The BOJ’s operation change had a huge psychological impact,” said Eiji Dohke, chief bond strategist at SBI Securities in Tokyo. “Investors are reluctant to buy given the risk of the BOJ skipping a purchase.”
Futures of 10-year notes slid as much as 0.97 yen to 154.05. The auction of 10-year debt drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.42, the lowest since 2016, with the cut-off price of 102.33 falling short of the 102.64 estimated by traders.
Japanese sovereign bonds were already reeling from September, when they lost 1.1%, the first monthly decline since April, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index.
The BOJ on Monday slashed purchase ranges for four major maturities, and indicated it may even stop buying debt of more than 25 years. It also suggested that it could skip buying operations as needed as it sought to steepen the yield curve.
Yields on Japan’s 10-year cash bond rose 6 basis points to minus 0.15%. They also climbed 7 basis points for Treasuries with a comparable maturity, while U.K. gilt yields rose 6 basis points.
More
WTO lowers global outlook again amid trade conflicts
October 1, 2019
/ 10:29 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - World trade will grow by 1.2% this year and by 2.7%
in 2020, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Tuesday, revising an
earlier forecast as trade conflicts between the United States and China weigh
on global trade.
“Trade conflicts pose the biggest downside risk to the forecast but
macroeconomic shocks and financial volatility are also potential triggers for a
steeper downturn,” the WTO said in a statement.
The organisation had previously lowered its forecast for trade growth to
2.6% for this year and to 3.0% in 2020.
Britain’s exit from the European Union is also weighing on the global
economy, the WTO said, adding that a withdrawal without an agreement could have
a significant impact, adding, however, that this would be mostly confined to
Europe.
"Nothing contributes so much to the
prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits."
David Ricardo, 19th century economist.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, an under reported worry at the Fed, and what should be in the
Bank of England too. Is an office real estate rental collapse about to roil the
world from the near collapse of WeWork, a “co-working spaces” flawed money losing
business plan model led by the cities of New York and London.
The Boston Fed, though it doesn’t finger them by name, fears it is due
to WeWork’s fast diminishing cash, flawed lease model, leasing long term but
renting out short term, and even if those first two problems can somehow be
made to go away, in the next recession all involved in the daisy chain will
start to go under, from banks lending to realtors, to realtors leasing to
co-working space companies, in turn renting space to short term renters. As the
short term renters default or simply not renew rental contracts, the
“co-working space” real estate rental model simply blows up.
The only reason a WeWork ever got this far, is down to the grossly
flawed easy money policies of the central banksters, manipulating the Great
Nixonian Error of fiat money.
Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity
without hell.
Frank Borman.
Assessing Economic Conditions and Risks to Financial Stability
By Eric
S. Rosengren September 20, 2019
1.
1. Takeaway: The central bank’s
monetary policy stance is already accommodative, whether the Fed Funds rate is
judged relative to inflation or relative to its long-run neutral level.
Excerpt: “Yet, it is notable that the federal funds futures market is pricing in a significant probability of another decrease by year end. The market apparently believes the economy needs added stimulus to continue the expansion. My own view is different.”
Excerpt: “Yet, it is notable that the federal funds futures market is pricing in a significant probability of another decrease by year end. The market apparently believes the economy needs added stimulus to continue the expansion. My own view is different.”
4. Takeaway: Responding to the risks
to the outlook with too much monetary accommodation entails costs, and
introduces risks of its own. One such risk is the potential build-up of
economic instability as households and firms respond to lower interest rates by
taking on too much debt.
Excerpt: “The current situation involves pushing rates lower when asset prices, and in particular some risky asset prices, already seem inflated. I don’t see current financial risks as causing a downturn, but such conditions have the potential to amplify a downturn should it occur. […] Additional accommodation is not needed for an economy where labor markets are already tight – and risks further inflating the prices of riskier assets, and encouraging households and firms to take on what may be too much leverage.”
Excerpt: “The current situation involves pushing rates lower when asset prices, and in particular some risky asset prices, already seem inflated. I don’t see current financial risks as causing a downturn, but such conditions have the potential to amplify a downturn should it occur. […] Additional accommodation is not needed for an economy where labor markets are already tight – and risks further inflating the prices of riskier assets, and encouraging households and firms to take on what may be too much leverage.”
5. Takeaway: The costs of credit conditions that are too accommodative
can appear in unexpected places. One potential financial stability risk has to
do with an evolving market model of co-working spaces in many major urban
office markets.
Excerpt: “This is an important time in the cycle to be thinking about structures and situations that could challenge financial stability in a downturn. The combination of reaching for yield with runnable liabilities is a common problem in financial stability situations. It’s important to think about the potential for runs on commercial real estate stemming from a situation where short-term leases might not be renewed in recession, and long-term leases are no longer economically viable. Interest rates play into the situation, as low rates potentially lead to a reach for yield, and building owners are more willing to lease to SPEs to get higher returns (rents) at a time when capitalization rates are quite low.”
Excerpt: “This is an important time in the cycle to be thinking about structures and situations that could challenge financial stability in a downturn. The combination of reaching for yield with runnable liabilities is a common problem in financial stability situations. It’s important to think about the potential for runs on commercial real estate stemming from a situation where short-term leases might not be renewed in recession, and long-term leases are no longer economically viable. Interest rates play into the situation, as low rates potentially lead to a reach for yield, and building owners are more willing to lease to SPEs to get higher returns (rents) at a time when capitalization rates are quite low.”
More
Eric S. Rosengren is President & Chief
Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Here Are The Billions Of Loans Exposed To A Potential WeWork Bankruptcy
With
the WeWork IPO now dead and buried, and as attention shifts to the company
which for years was world consciousness elevating Adam Neumann's
personal piggybank (he cashed out to the tune of $740 million, while stranding
his thousands of employees with worthless stock) many are noticing what we highlighted
last week, namely that WeWork now has just a few months of cash
left.
----As
we noted recently, the
most immediate task facing WeWork is that once the IPO was called off, it
unraveled a $6 billion financing package. It is also the gargantuan challenge
facing the company's two new co-CEOs brought in to replace Neumann - Sebastian
Gunningham and Artie Minson - who have to find a way forward for a company that
was until just a few weeks ago one of the world’s most valuable private
startups with a valuation of $47 billion... but has not only never made a penny
in profit but saw its losses grow the more its revenue increased.
----For
now, the answer is unknown. What is known is that the company lost $690 million
in the first six months and is expected to generate a loss from operations
approaching $3 billion as it burns through tens of millions in cash daily.
Which means that according to analyst estimates, with its existing $2.5
billion in cash as of June 30, the company could run out of money by mid-2020.
----And then there is the real liquidity crisis staring everyone in the face: as part of its tremendous growth, by the end of 2019 WeWork will have not only burned $6 billion since 2016, but will have accrued $47 billion of future rent payments due in the form of lease liabilities. On average it leases its buildings for 15 years. Yet as Bloomberg reported previously, its tenants are committed to paying only $4 billion, and on average have leases for 15 months.
In short, a WeWork solvency crisis (read: bankruptcy) would send a shockwave across the US Commercial Real Estate market. Correction, it would send a shockwave across the global commercial real estate market. The reason is that with over $47 billion in lease liabilities, WeWork is already one of the world’s largest lessees, trailing only oil exploration giants Petrobras and Sinpec, an astonishing feat for the flexible office space provider "which was founded less than a decade ago, bleeds cash, and doesn’t plan to become profitable any time soon."
----And then there is the not so subtle fact that WeWork is already the single biggest tenant in New York City, as well as Chicago, Denver and central London.
Said otherwise, a WeWork insolvency would send the Commercial Real Estate market in New York, London, and most major metropolises into a tailspin.
Which brings up the next logical question: who is exposed?
More
The true costs of very low interest rates
Artificial
distortions can cause ‘clusters of errors’ by businesses
Caitlin
Long August 11, 2010
Markets
tend to cheer falling interest rates. Low interest rates, however, can entail
real economic costs that become evident over time.
---- Interest
rates are the most important prices in the economy, according to Nobel laureate
F.A. Hayek, because they reflect the collective time preference of individuals
to consume either now or later. Accordingly, interest rates co-ordinate
allocation of capital across the economy by signalling to businesses whether
they should invest. Distortions in interest rates can cause “clusters of
errors” in which large swathes of businesses unwittingly miscalculate at the
same time.
Hayek
observed that interest rate stimulus interfered with economic calculations,
causing managers to invest in projects that would not otherwise have appeared
profitable. Losses can subsequently materialise as customer demand fails to
meet forecasts that were, in retrospect, optimistic. Long-term projects are
highly sensitive to interest rates and are therefore more susceptible to such
distortions. Pension obligations and long-term, capital-intensive projects are
at high risk of miscalculation based on artificially low rates.
More
Caitlin
Long is head of Corporate Strategy, Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley.
Over a long weekend, I could teach my dog to be an
investment banker.
Herbert Allen, president of Allen & Co.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
A new concept could make more environmentally friendly batteries possible
Date:
September 30, 2019
Source:
Chalmers University of Technology
Summary:
A new concept for an aluminium battery has twice the energy density as previous
versions, is made of abundant materials, and could lead to reduced production
costs and environmental impact. The idea has potential for large scale
applications, including storage of solar and wind energy.
A new concept for an aluminium battery has twice the energy density as
previous versions, is made of abundant materials, and could lead to reduced
production costs and environmental impact. The idea has potential for large
scale applications, including storage of solar and wind energy. Researchers
from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, and the National Institute of
Chemistry, Slovenia, are behind the idea.
Using aluminium battery technology could offer several advantages,
including a high theoretical energy density, and the fact that there already
exists an established industry for its manufacturing and recycling. Compared
with today's lithium-ion batteries, the researchers' new concept could result
in markedly lower production costs.
"The material costs and environmental impacts that we envisage from
our new concept are much lower than what we see today, making them feasible for
large scale usage, such as solar cell parks, or storage of wind energy, for
example," says Patrik Johansson, Professor at the Department of Physics at
Chalmers.
"Additionally, our new battery concept has twice the energy density
compared with the aluminium batteries that are 'state of the art' today."
---- But in the new concept, presented by Patrik Johansson and Chalmers, together with a research group in Ljubljana led by Robert Dominko, the graphite has been replaced by an organic, nanostructured cathode, made of the carbon-based molecule anthraquinone.
The anthraquinone cathode has been extensively developed by Jan Bitenc,
previously a guest researcher at Chalmers from the group at the National
Institute of Chemistry in Slovenia.
The advantage of this organic molecule in the cathode material is that
it enables storage of positive charge-carriers from the electrolyte, the
solution in which ions move between the electrodes, which make possible higher
energy density in the battery.
"Because the new cathode material makes it possible to use a more
appropriate charge-carrier, the batteries can make better usage of aluminium's
potential. Now, we are continuing the work by looking for an even better
electrolyte. The current version contains chlorine -- we want to get rid of
that," says Chalmers researcher Niklas Lindahl, who studies the internal
mechanisms which govern energy storage.
More
"There is no way of keeping profits up
but by keeping wages down."
David Ricardo, 19th century
economist.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished September
DJIA: 26,917 +57 Up. NASDAQ: 7,999 +62 Up. SP500: 2,977 +61 Up.
Another inconclusive month,
but all three moved up weakly. I would not rely on nor take such a weak buy
signal.
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