Baltic Dry Index. 1712
-22 Brent
Crude 57.81 Gold $1,500
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe. 84
days away.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
“I
sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a
principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke
that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News]
paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in
the same way.”
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.
Our gambling casinos,
once also known as stock markets, have turned into a nightmare of churn and
burn wealth destruction. Who can sensibly invest when the Dow can fall almost
600 points and back in a single trading session.
Who would want to
invest in overpriced, heavily indebted stocks in what looks to be a new global recession
getting underway?
Who would want to
invest in the stock market casino when President Trump is pressuring the
Federal Reserve to weaken the dollar and follow Europe and Japan into negative
interest rates. How well has that worked for Europe and Japan?
Don’t look now but
central banks are starting to panic. All are racing to competitive devaluation
before President Trump get his way with a cowed compliant rate cutting Federal
Reserve. When he wins, gold is likely to soar.
Below, bunker time.
Whipsaw markets never end well. Recessions sink a whole lot of stocks.
Asian markets rise, unfazed by yuan’s latest weakening
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press Published: Aug 7, 2019 11:51 p.m. ET
Asian markets rose in early trading Thursday, showing no
significant reaction after China’s central bank set the yuan’s midpoint at its
weakest level since 2008.The People’s Bank of China early Thursday set the yuan’s reference point at 7.0039 against one U.S. dollar. Still, it was not as weak as some had expected, heartening investors that China was not trying to start an all-out currency war. A weakening of the yuan below the critical 7 level on Monday sent global markets tumbling amid fears it was the first step in a currency war, and led the U.S. Treasury Department to label China a currency manipulator for the first time since 1994.
Later Thursday, China posted better-then-expected trade data despite the ongoing trade war with the U.S., showing July exports rose 3.3% year-over-year while imports fell 5.6%, with an overall trade surplus of $45.06 billion. Experts had been predicting exports to fall 2% from last year, and imports to sink 7.3%, with a trade surplus of $38.7 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.
More
Dow erases 589-point skid to end nearly flat in sharpest turnaround in 7 months
By Mark
DeCambre Published: Aug 7, 2019 4:46
p.m. ET
U.S. stocks on Wednesday mustered modest gains following a
dramatic turnabout, with all three key equity benchmarks recovering from losses
of at least 1% which were partly driven by signs that global economic growth
was slowing as the U.S. - China trade war intensifies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.09% finished 22.45 points lower, or less than 0.1%, to 26,007.07, after sinking 2.3% or 589 points, at the session low. The S&P 500 index SPX, +0.08% finished 2.21 points, or 0.1%, higher at 2,883.98, after skidding nearly 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.38% gained 29.56 points, or 0.4% to 7,862.83, reversing an intraday 130-point slide in the technology-heavy index.
The reversal for the Dow and S&P 500 represents their biggest turnarounds since Dec. 27, 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
More
Trump blasts Fed 'incompetence' as trade war wobbles stock markets again
· CBC News ·
Donald Trump lashed out at the U.S. central bank on Wednesday, accusing
the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy with holding back the economy from winning
a trade war he is trying to wage with China.
In a series of tweets on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump blamed
the central bank for not initiating interest rate cuts that are "bigger
and faster" for the current turmoil in financial markets.
Investors have been keeping a close eye on international
trade developments in recent days, as the U.S. president escalates his trade
war with China.Markets had their worst day of the year on Monday after China allowed its currency to depreciate against the U.S. dollar, something that prompted the U.S. government to angrily call Beijing a "currency manipulator." The mood on stock markets was a bit better on Tuesday as Beijing solidified the exchange rate a little, but it doesn't take much of late to spark a big swoon or run up in stock prices.
Trump's view is that China employs a number of trade policies that are unfair to the U.S., including stealing technology, keeping their own market closed off to foreign firms, and keeping their currency artificially low to make Chinese suppliers look cheaper.
His tactics to rectify that have included slapping billions of dollars of tariffs on Chinese imports and threatening even more extreme measures, but on Wednesday he blamed the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy for holding the U.S. economy back.
"Our problem is a Federal Reserve that is too proud to admit their mistake of acting too fast and tightening too much (and that I was right!). They must Cut Rates bigger and faster, and stop their ridiculous quantitative tightening NOW," he said.
More
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trade-war-wednesday-1.5238607
Asian central banks flag growth concerns with surprising rate cuts
August 7, 2019 /
11:44 AM
WELLINGTON/MUMBAI
(Reuters) - Asia central banks signalled major concerns on Wednesday about the
outlook for economic growth, stunning markets with a series of surprising
interest rate cuts and pointing to policymakers’ dwindling ammunition to fight
off a downturn.
The moves came after trade tensions and slowing global growth prompted
the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut rates for the first time in a decade and the
European Central Bank to signal policy easing. Australia’s central bank eased
policy in June and July.
“Almost every tool in the box has been used to engineer a soft landing
in the current economic cycle downturn,” analysts at OCBC in Singapore said in
a market note, arguing that limited stimulus options, given that rates are
generally very low, were problematic.
“We may stave off this recession with rate cuts - but when the
accumulation of stresses comes due in the next downturn, the lack of monetary
policy space is likely to result in a harder landing for the global economy.”
New Zealand’s central bank cut its official cash rate 50 basis points to
a record low of 1%. That caught off guard investors who expected a 25 basis
point cut, prompting a 2% fall in the country’s currency.
The Bank of Thailand followed suit, cutting its one-day repurchase rate
by 25 basis points to 1.5%. All but one of 15 analysts in a Reuters poll had
predicted no rate change.
Citing growth concerns as “the highest priority”, the Indian central
bank cuts its repo rate a bigger-than-expected 35 basis points to 5.4%.
More
China surprises with best export growth since March, but imports remain weak
August 8, 2019 /
4:13 AM
A sharp drop in the yuan currency this week may offer only scant relief
for Chinese exporters, who are facing both additional U.S. levies on Sept. 1
and sputtering demand worldwide.
July exports rose 3.3% from a year earlier, the fastest since March,
customs data showed on Thursday. Analysts had expected a slightly bigger 2.0%
drop after June’s 1.3% fall.
But imports remained weak, declining 5.6% and highlighting still
sluggish domestic demand. Still, the drop was less than an expected 8.3% and
June’s 7.3%.
That left China with a trade surplus $45.06 billion (£37.02 billion)
last month, compared with a $50.98 billion surplus in June. Analysts had
forecast a surplus of $40 billion for July.
The United States raised tariffs on a large number of Chinese goods in
May, after trade negotiations broke down, and Beijing retaliated.
July saw a temporary ceasefire in the year-long trade war after leaders
of both countries agreed in late June to restart negotiations and President
Donald Trump offered some concessions.
But the truce was shattered last week, after Trump vowed to impose a 10%
tariff on $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, which would extend
levies to effectively all of the goods China sells to the United States. In
response, China on Monday said it would stop purchasing U.S. agricultural
products.
China’s trade surplus with the United
States stood at $27.97 billion in July, narrowing from June’s $29.92 billion.
More
World Economy Edges Closer to a Recession as Trade Dread Deepens
By Enda Curran and Katia Dmitrieva
Updated on August 7, 2019, 3:59 PM GMT+1
·
·
Central banks from Wellington to Bangkok shock
with rate cuts
The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China is nudging the world
economy toward its first recession in a decade with investors demanding
politicians and central bankers act fast to change course.
More
Data: U.S. importers paid 3 times more in China tariffs in June
Aug. 7, 2019 /
8:03 AM
Aug. 7 (UPI) -- The Trump administration's repeated acts to punitively tax China
during the long-running trade conflict is costing U.S. businesses -- to the
tune of $3.4 billion in June alone, federal data shows.Trade group Tariffs Hurt the Heartland cited the figures in a report Tuesday, which said that cost for U.S. companies for the same month a year ago was just $1 billion.
The greater cost in June follows a 31 percent decline in Chinese imports.
Tariffs Hurt the Heartland is a coalition of trade associations and agriculture groups that formed as a direct result of the U.S.-China trade dispute, which began more than a year ago. A major part of the administration's strategy has been to levy tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese products imported into the United States.
Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Beijing of currency manipulation after the yuan plummeted in value, heightening tensions and possibly souring prospects for a trade resolution.
The tariffs against China, however, are paid by U.S. importers -- who then often pass on the cost to consumers. The administration's strategy is that by imposing the tariffs, American importers will look elsewhere in the supply chain. The federal data cited by Tariffs Hurt the Heartland, however, suggest that doesn't appear to be happening.
Yedi Houseware, for example, paid more than $300,000 in tariffs for materials it sources from China.
"It's really, really hurting us," said Yedi Vice President Bobby Djavaheri. "We've had to increase prices and sales dropped more than 40 percent."
The United States has so far collected $22 billion in tariffs from importers, but Trump has promised $28 billion in aid to American farmers whose China sales have declined significantly.
Last week, Trump announced an additional 10 percent tax on certain imports, including toys, shoes and video games -- and China vowed to retaliate
"Ultimately the U.S. is paying a lot more tariffs, and buying somewhat less," said Trade Partnership Vice President Dan Anthony. "The Chinese aren't really paying as much in tariffs, but it's because they just stopped purchasing all together."
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/08/07/Data-US-importers-paid-3-times-more-in-China-tariffs-in-June/5081565175316/?lh=1
Finally India. Yet more signs of a new global recession arriving.
Auto sector crisis deepens: Around two lakh jobs cut in last 3 months
Around 2.5 million people were employed directly through around 26,000 automobile showrooms operated by 15,000 dealers. Another 2.5 million are indirectly employed in the dealership ecosystem, he added.
August 4, 2019 UPDATED: August 4, 2019 11:56 IST
- Industry body FADA fears that jobs cuts in the auto sector may continue
- The majority of job cuts have happened in the last three months, said FADA president
- Right now most of the cuts which have happened are in front-end sales jobs
Around two lakh jobs have been cut across automobile dealerships in
India in the last three months as vehicle retailers take the last resort of
cutting manpower to tide over the impact of the unprecedented sales slump,
according to industry body FADA.
With no immediate signs of recovery, the Federation of Automobile
Dealers Associations (FADA) feared that the job cuts may continue with more
showrooms being shut in the near future and sought immediate government
intervention such as reduction of GST to provide relief to the auto industry.
"The majority of job cuts have happened in the last three
months...It started around May and continued through June and July," FADA
President Ashish Harsharaj Kale told PTI.
He further said, "Right now most of the cuts which have happened
are in front-end sales jobs but if this (slowdown) continues, then even the
technical jobs will be affected because if we are selling less then we will
also service less, so it is a cycle."
When asked how many jobs have been cut across the dealerships in India,
he said, "Close to about two lakh."
"It is a guesstimate that our members have already cut 7-8 per cent
of the jobs in most of the dealerships as the degrowth has been very
high," he added.
Around 2.5 million people were employed directly through around 26,000
automobile showrooms operated by 15,000 dealers. Another 2.5 million are
indirectly employed in the dealership ecosystem, he added.
The two lakh jobs cuts in the last three months are over and above the
32,000 people who lost employment when 286 showrooms were closed across 271
cities in the 18-month period ended April this year, he added.
----Terming manpower as 'the most precious resource of dealers', Kale said,"That is the last thing we try to cut down. When the slowdown started we first decided that we should go for stock reduction. Most of OEMs have supported us. While cutting other variable expenses that we can, we did not touch manpower till March and almost mid-April."
Ruing the loss of jobs, he said, "It is the last resort because it
is difficult to get those manpower. We invest a lot on training them because it
is a peculiar industry, whether it is a technical or a field job."
More
Lakh
A lakh (/læk, lɑːk/; abbreviated L; sometimes written Lac[1] or Lacs; Devanāgarī: लाख) is a unit in the Indian numbering system equal to one hundred thousand (100,000; scientific notation: 105).[2][1][3] In the Indian convention of digit grouping, it is written as 1,00,000. For example, in India 150,000 rupees becomes 1.5 lakh rupees, written as ₹1,50,000 or INR 1,50,000.It is widely used both in official and other contexts in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. It is often used in Indian, Pakistani, and Sri Lankan English. In Pakistan, the word lakh is used mostly in local languages rather than in English media.
More
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lakh
It is sometimes necessary to lie damnably in the interests of
the nation.
Hilaire Belloc
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more on that global slowdown or worse. How low will stocks fall?
How high will gold rise if the Fed follows Europe into negative interest rates?
If America turns to Democrat Socialists?
“Socialism
only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t need it and hell where they
already have it.”
Ronald
Reagan.
Mid-Year Global Semiconductor Sales Down 14.5 Compared to 2018
6 August 2019
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today
announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $98.2
billion during the second quarter of 2019, a small increase of 0.3 percent
over the previous quarter, but 16.8 percent less than the second quarter of
last year. Global sales for the month of June 2019 were $32.7
billion, a decrease of 0.9 percent compared to last month’s total of $33.0
billion, and 16.8 percent less than the June 2018 total of $39.3
billion. Cumulatively, year-to-date sales during the first half of 2019 were
14.5 percent lower than they were through the same point in 2018. Monthly
sales are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and
represent a three-month moving average. SIA represents U.S. leadership in
semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research.“At the midpoint of 2019, the global semiconductor market remains in a period of decreased sales, with revenues through June lagging the mid-year totals from last year by nearly 15 percent,” said John Neuffer, SIA president and CEO. “Year-to-year sales were down across all major regional markets and semiconductor product categories. One silver lining was that sales during the second quarter of 2019 narrowly outpaced sales during the first quarter.”
Regionally, sales increased on a month-to-month basis in Japan (2.6 percent), but decreased the Americas (-0.7 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (-0.7 percent), China (-1.5 percent), and Europe (-2.6 percent). On a year-to-year basis, sales were down across all regional markets: Europe (-10.9 percent), Japan (-12.8 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (-13.7 percent), China (-13.9 percent), and the Americas (-29.5 percent).
More
Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 9.6% in 2019
6 August 2019.
Worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to total $429
billion in 2019, a decline of 9.6% from $475 billion in 2018, according to
Gartner, Inc. This is down from the previous quarter’s forecast of -3.4%.“The semiconductor market is being impacted by a number of factors. A weaker pricing environment for memory and some other chips types combined with the U.S.-China trade dispute and lower growth in major applications, including smartphones, servers and PCs, is driving the global semiconductor market to its lowest growth since 2009,” said Ben Lee, senior principal research analyst at Gartner. “Semiconductor product managers should review production and investment plans to protect themselves from this weaker market.”
A demand-driven oversupply in the DRAM market will push pricing down 42.1% in 2019 and the oversupply is expected to extend through the second quarter of 2020. The decline is due to signs of a slower demand recovery at the hyperscale vendors and the increasing inventory levels of DRAM vendors. This ends the longest period of undersupply seen in the DRAM industry.
The ongoing dispute between the U.S. and China is causing uncertainty over trade rates. U.S.-imposed restrictions on Chinese businesses are based on security concerns and will have a longer-term impact on semiconductor supply and demand. These combined issues will accelerate China’s domestic semiconductor production, as well as create local forks of technologies such as ARM processors. Some manufacturing will relocate outside China during the dispute and many companies will seek to diversify their manufacturing base to reduce any further disruption.
The global NAND market has been in oversupply since the first quarter of 2018 and is now more pronounced as the near-term demand for NAND is weaker than expected.
“We
expect that high smartphone inventory and sluggish solid-state array demand
will last for a few more quarters,” said Mr. Lee. “Given the aggressive price
declines for NAND, it is possible to see a more balanced supply/demand outlook
in 2020. However, looking further out is concerning given slowing demand
drivers, such as PCs and smartphones, and more capacity as new fabs in China
impact the market.”
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, president of the European
Commission. Scotch
connoisseur.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Scientists create the world's thinnest gold
Date:
August 6, 2019
Source:
University of Leeds
Summary:
Scientists have created a new form of gold which is just two atoms thick -- the
thinnest unsupported gold ever created.
The researchers measured the thickness of the gold to be 0.47 nanometres
-- that is one million times thinner than a human finger nail. The material is
regarded as 2D because it comprises just two layers of atoms sitting on top of
one another. All atoms are surface atoms -- there are no 'bulk' atoms hidden
beneath the surface.
The material could have wide-scale applications in the medical device
and electronics industries -- and also as a catalyst to speed up chemical
reactions in a range of industrial processes.
Laboratory tests show that the ultra-thin gold is 10 times more
efficient as a catalytic substrate than the currently used gold nanoparticles,
which are 3D materials with the majority of atoms residing in the bulk rather
than at the surface.
Scientists believe the new material could also form the basis of
artificial enzymes that could be applied in rapid, point-of-care medical
diagnostic tests and in water purification systems.
The announcement that the ultra-thin metal had been successfully
synthesised was made in the journal Advanced Science.
The lead author of the paper, Dr Sunjie Ye, from Leeds' Molecular and
Nanoscale Physics Group and the Leeds Institute of Medical Research, said:
"This work amounts to a landmark achievement.
"Not only does it open up the possibility that gold can be used
more efficiently in existing technologies, it is providing a route which would
allow material scientists to develop other 2D metals.
"This method could innovate nanomaterial manufacturing."
The research team are looking to work with industry on ways of
scaling-up the process.
----Professor Stephen Evans, head of the Leeds' Molecular and Nanoscale Research Group who supervised the research, said the considerable gains that could be achieved from using these ultra-thin gold sheets are down to their high surface-area to volume ratio.
He said: "Gold is a highly effective catalyst. Because the
nanosheets are so thin, just about every gold atom plays a part in the
catalysis. It means the process is highly efficient."
Standard benchmark tests revealed that gold nanoscale sheets were ten
times more efficient than the gold nanoparticles conventionally used in
industry.
Professor Evans said: "Our data suggests that industry could get
the same effect from using a smaller amount of gold, and this has economic
advantages when you are talking about a precious metal."
Similar benchmark tests revealed that the gold sheets could act as
highly effective artificial enzymes.
The flakes are also flexible, meaning they could form the basis of
electronic components for bendable screens, electronic inks and transparent
conducting displays.
Professor Evans thinks there will inevitably be comparisons made between
the 2D gold and the very first 2D material ever created -- graphene, which was
fabricated at the University of Manchester in 2004.
More
"On
the whole human beings want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the
time.”
George
Orwell.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,864 +53 Up. NASDAQ: 8,175 +65 Down.
SP500: 2,980 +53 Up.
The S&P and Dow remain up, but in very unconvincing fashion. The NASDAQ remains down. Like the Fed, I would await a better data
driven signal.
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