Monday, 5 August 2019

China Fires Back.


Baltic Dry Index. 1788 -24   Brent Crude 61.17

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe.  87 days away.
Nuclear Trump China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

“Trade protection accumulates upon a single point the good which it effects, while the evil inflicted is infused throughout the mass. The one strikes the eye at a first glance, while the other becomes perceptible only to close investigation.”

Frederic Bastiat

The big news this morning and now likely all summer, is that “easy to win” US trade war against China. This morning China appears to have given up on an early negotiated end, and appears to be firing back with a new down leg in the competitive currency wars. President Trump will be furious.

With another USA crop harvest getting underway, China seems to be targeting that too, by holding back on US agriculture purchases. A long economic war of attrition now seems to be developing. Nothing good for the global economy lies down this road of reduced trade. The next recession looms.

Asian markets fall amid trade tensions, Hong Kong strife

By MarketWatch and Associated Press  Published: Aug 4, 2019 11:57 p.m. ET
Asian markets sank in early trading Monday, as worsening trade tensions between the U.S. and China took hold and fresh protests ground Hong Kong to a halt.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that President Donald Trump overruled his top economic advisers by slapping new tariffs against Chinese goods last week, apparently in response to Chinas inability to commit to increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products. The Journal reported that last week’s trade talks in Shanghai, the first in months, had been brief and unproductive. 

Also Sunday, China’s yuan CNYUSD, -0.0261%   weakened below the key seven level with the U.S. dollar, hitting a new all-time low. That could increase tensions with the U.S., which contends that a weak yuan makes China’s exports too cheap, hurting competition.
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China lets yuan slump past 7 per dollar for first time in over decade as trade war escalates

August 5, 2019 / 3:50 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China on Monday let the yuan tumble beyond the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade, in a sign Beijing might be willing to tolerate further currency weakness in the face of an escalating trade row with the United States.

The sharp 1.4% drop in the yuan came after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the daily mid-point of the currency's trading band CNY=PBOC at 6.9225 per dollar, its weakest level since December 2018. 

“Today’s fixing was the last line in the sand,” said Ken Cheung, senior Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong.

“The PBOC has fully given the green light to yuan depreciation”

The shakeout in the yuan comes days after U.S. President Donald Trump stunned financial markets by vowing to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, abruptly breaking a brief month-long ceasefire in the bruising trade war.

---- With the escalating trade war giving Beijing fewer reasons to maintain yuan stability, analysts said they expect the currency to continue to weaken.

“In the short-term, the yuan’s strength would be largely determined by the domestic economy. If third-quarter economic growth stabilizes, the yuan could stabilize around 7.2 or 7.3 level,” Zhang Yi, chief economist at Zhonghai Shengrong Capital Management in Beijing.

Capital Economics senior China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said the PBOC had probably been holding back against allowing a weaker yuan to avoid derailing trade negotiations with the United States.

“The fact that they have now stopped defending 7.00 against the dollar suggests that they have all but abandoned hopes for a trade deal with the U.S.,” he said.
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China Hits Back at Trump With Weaker Yuan, Halt on Crop Imports

Malcolm Scott, Kevin Hamlin and Tian Chen
After trying to placate Donald Trump for more than a year only to face tariffs on virtually all its shipments to the U.S., China is signalling it’s ready to play hardball.

In a stark escalation of the trade war that has roiled financial markets and weighed on economic growth worldwide, Beijing allowed the yuan to tumble to its weakest level in a decade against the dollar and asked state-owned companies to suspend imports of U.S. agricultural products.

The moves emerged within days of Trump’s threat to impose additional tariffs on China and struck at the heart of two of the U.S. president’s fiercest criticisms -- that Beijing manages its currency unfairly to help exporters and has failed to keep promises to boost purchases of U.S. crops after a trade truce in June. Investors responded by dumping Asian stocks and currencies in favor of haven assets including the Japanese yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold.

"It’s among the worst-case scenarios," said Michael Every, head of Asia financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong. "First markets sell off, then Trump wakes up and this all gets far, far worse."


Trump last week proposed adding 10% tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese imports from Sept. 1, ramping up the trade war between the world’s largest economies shortly after the two sides restarted talks. Bureaucrats in Beijing were stunned by Trump’s announcement, according to Chinese officials who’ve been involved in the trade talks, and Beijing has pledged to respond if the U.S. insists on adding the extra tariffs.

Market Turmoil

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for its biggest decline since March on Monday, with shares slumping more than 2% in markets from Tokyo to Hong Kong and Seoul. Equities in Shanghai saw a more modest drop ami
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Things are heating up rapidly too, in that other active trade war between Japan and South Korea, and we still have a no-deal Brexit and a USA v EU trade war to come.

Bunker Time! Return of capital beats a rising risky return on capital for the foreseeable future. How long do over priced stocks have?

Japan car sales slump in South Korea as trade row escalates

·         10 minutes ago
Sales of Japanese cars in South Korea fell sharply last month as a bitter trade row been the two countries provoked a consumer backlash. 

Industry data showed Toyota sales plunged 32% from a year earlier, while Honda's sales slid 34%.
South Koreans have been boycotting Japanese goods after Tokyo tightened export curbs on the country in July.

The dispute escalated last week when Japan said it would drop South Korea from its trusted trade partner list.

The move to strike South Korea from the so-called "white list" was met with anger and threats of retaliation.

Tokyo had already tightened controls on key exports to South Korea, sparking fears over risks to the global electronics sector.

·         How an Asian trade row could hit electronics supplies

On Monday, the South Korean government outlined plans to invest around $6.5bn (£5.3bn) to try to develop products and materials which it currently buys from Japan.

"We want to turn the crisis into an opportunity for the materials, parts and equipment industry," South Korea's industry minister Sung Yun-mo told reporters.

However the moves - which Tokyo has said are based on national security concerns - have prompted South Koreans to boycott Japanese products and services including cars, beer and tourist trips.

"Showroom visits are declining while consumers are holding off on signing contracts," a Honda Korea official told Reuters, after the release of the July sales data from the Korea Automobile Importers & Distributors Association.

How did the trade row begin?

The trade spat has been fuelled by diplomatic tensions over compensation for wartime labour.

Last year, South Korean court rulings ordering Japanese firms to pay compensation to Koreans over forced wartime labour inflamed long-running tensions.

The decisions drew condemnation from Japan, which argues the dispute was settled in 1965 when diplomatic ties were normalised between the neighbouring countries.

US-China and Japan-South Korea trade wars undermine world's economy

Everything that can go wrong in global system is going wrong
August 05, 2019 03:00 JST

Murphy's Law -- which states that anything that can go wrong will go wrong -- is now the official 
economic doctrine of our times. Indeed, just about everything that could go wrong from Washington to Tokyo is going awry, and at the worst possible moment for the global financial system.

Last week gave renewed life to this adage. First, Donald Trump upped the ante on his 18-month trade war with China: atop his 25% taxes on $250 billion of Chinese goods, the U.S. President plans an additional 10% on $300 billion worth.

Then it was Japan's turn. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is formally removing South Korea from its "white list" of 27 countries with preferred trade status. In Seoul, President Moon Jae-in's government is devising ways to retaliate, ensuring an escalating tit-for-tat sure to roil markets near and far.

The specter of the world's three biggest economies and South Korea exchanging trade-policy blows is the last thing the global economy needs, and investors and consumers alike should be afraid in case the geopolitical wrangling unnerves markets.

This year was billed as one of grand bargains: Trump's much-advertised trade deal with China would soothe markets; a deal with Japan would increase global prosperity; the U.K. would bring the Brexit saga to a close.

Instead, Trump is brawling with his Federal Reserve chief at home, redoubling efforts to tackle Asia's biggest economy and most likely plotting his next targets. Abe is venturing down his own populism-inspired path too. Last week's events portend a sharp escalation of the trade clashes observers hoped world leaders had got out of their systems.
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The one thing that people overlook is that the sort of dependence that results from exchange, i.e., from commercial transactions, is a reciprocal dependence.  We cannot be dependent upon a foreigner without his being dependent upon us.  Now, this is what constitutes the very essence of society. To sever natural interrelations is not to make oneself independent, but to isolate oneself completely.

Frederic Bastiat
 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, Hong Kong descends towards anarchy. Is this the beginning of the end for Hong Kong as an international financial centre? How long will Beijing’s patience last?

Strike grips Hong Kong as leader warns protests challenge China's sovereignty

August 5, 2019 / 1:50 AM
Beijing-backed leader Carrie Lam addressed the media for the first time in two weeks and warned again that the protests gripping the city are a challenge to China’s sovereignty and pushing it to the verge of an “extremely dangerous situation”.

Embattled Lam remained defiant as she rejected calls from protesters for her to resign and said the government would be resolute in maintaining law and order. 

She warned the protests were putting the Asian financial centre on a path of no return and had hurt the city’s economy.

“They claim they want a revolution and to restore Hong Kong, these actions have far exceeded their original political demands,” said a stern-faced Lam, who was flanked by senior members of her administration.

“These illegal acts that challenge our country’s sovereignty, and jeopardize ‘one country two systems’, will destroy the stability and prosperity of Hong Kong,” she said, referring to Hong Kong’s administrative system since 1997 when the former British colony was handed back to China.

In her first news conference since July 22, Lam said the protests are “pushing our city, the city we all love and many of us helped to build, to the verge of a very dangerous situation”.

Some protesters accused Lam of again fuelling the crisis by ignoring public sentiment, and they pledged to continue with their movement.

“It is totally a waste of time to hear” her speak, said Jay Leung, 20, a university student.

“I don’t think the government is doing anything to heal society,” he added. “They provide no solution to solve the political problem brought on by themselves. Why doesn’t the government reflect its performance?”

The Chinese-controlled city has been rocked by months of protests that began against an extradition bill that would have allowed people to be sent to mainland China for trial and have since evolved into a broader backlash against the government.

Commuters struggled to get to work in the Monday morning rush hour before Lam spoke, with many rail and bus services suspended, while some activists blocked trains from leaving stations, some by sitting between train doors, in the latest anti-government campaign.

Long lines of traffic could be seen across Hong Kong island leading into the heart of the business centre and hundreds of people were stranded at the airport. Roads into the main arteries of Hong Kong were paralysed.

The Airport Express train service was temporarily suspended.

“(The government) are making police the scapegoat and creating a situation that is becoming unbearable for everyone who lives here. So that’s one of the reasons we have joined the strike,” said Mark Schmidt, 49, who closed his business on Monday.

“Losing a bit of money now is not such a problem,(compared) with losing everything that the freedom of Hong Kong used to stand for,” he added.
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Under a system of perfectly free commerce, each country naturally devotes its capital and labour to such employments as are most beneficial to each.  This pursuit of individual advantage is admirably connected with the universal good of the whole.

David Ricardo.


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Synthesizing single-crystalline hexagonal graphene quantum dots

Date: August 2, 2019

Source: The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

Summary: Engineers have designed a novel strategy for synthesizing single-crystalline graphene quantum dots, which emit stable blue light. The research team confirmed that a display made of their synthesized graphene quantum dots successfully emitted blue light with stable electric pressure, reportedly resolving the long-standing challenges of blue light emission in manufactured displays.

The study, led by Professor O Ok Park in the Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, was featured online in Nano Letters on July 5.

Graphene has gained increased attention as a next-generation material for its heat and electrical conductivity as well as its transparency. However, single and multi-layered graphene have characteristics of a conductor so that it is difficult to apply into semiconductor. Only when downsized to the nanoscale, semiconductor's distinct feature of bandgap will be exhibited to emit the light in the graphene. This illuminating featuring of dot is referred to as a graphene quantum dot.

Conventionally, single-crystalline graphene has been fabricated by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) on copper or nickel thin films, or by peeling graphite physically and chemically. However, graphene made via chemical vapor deposition is mainly used for large-surface transparent electrodes. 

Meanwhile, graphene made by chemical and physical peeling carries uneven size defects.

The research team explained that their graphene quantum dots exhibited a very stable single-phase reaction when they mixed amine and acetic acid with an aqueous solution of glucose. Then, they synthesized single-crystalline graphene quantum dots from the self-assembly of the reaction intermediate. In the course of fabrication, the team developed a new separation method at a low-temperature precipitation, which led to successfully creating a homogeneous nucleation of graphene quantum dots via a single-phase reaction.

Professor Park and his colleagues have developed solution phase synthesis technology that allows for the creation of the desired crystal size for single nanocrystals down to 100 nano meters. It is reportedly the first synthesis of the homogeneous nucleation of graphene through a single-phase reaction.

Professor Park said, "This solution method will significantly contribute to the grafting of graphene in various fields. The application of this new graphene will expand the scope of its applications such as for flexible displays and varistors."

This research was a joint project with a team from Korea University under Professor Sang Hyuk Im from the Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, and was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea, the Nano-Material Technology Development Program from the Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI), KAIST EEWS, and the BK21+ project from the Korean government.
“Man is an animal that makes bargains: no other animal does this - no dog exchanges bones with another.”

Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nation

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July

DJIA: 26,864 +53 Up. NASDAQ: 8,175 +65 Down. SP500: 2,980 +53 Up. 

The S&P and Dow remain up, but in very unconvincing fashion. The NASDAQ remains down.  Like the Fed, I would await a better data driven signal.

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