Baltic Dry Index. 2067
-21 Brent
Crude 59.79 Spot Gold $1,497
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe. 72
days away.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
It’s A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World.
Global stock markets
continue to rally in the face of mounting signs of a new global recession
arriving. The new world order wisdom, things are so bad in the global economy
that central banksters have no other option but to cut interest rates deeply,
into negative territory if necessary, and that politicians everywhere from
China to Germany, have no other option but open up the spigots to new cash
created out of thin air.
To this old dinosaur
trader, that’s a reason to sell not to buy. To get back to cash and convert the
cash into tangible assets with inherent long term value. Buying over priced
stock as a new global recession gets underway, is sure way to destroy wealth.
Once the stock price correction gets underway, a massive mountain of “goodwill”
must be written off corporate balance sheets, and that only adds to the
downward correction in stock values.
Below, more of the
summer of 2019 stock and political madness. It’s a mad, mad, mad, mad world.
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale."
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
Asian shares nudge higher on stimulus hopes, recession fears ease
August 20, 2019 /
2:06 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares extended their gains on Tuesday as hopes for stimulus in major
economies tempered anxiety about a global recession, boosting riskier assets
and drawing money from safe-havens such as bonds and gold.
Shares in China and Hong Kong opened lower and swung in and out of negative territory after China lowered its lending reference rate only slightly in the first publication of a new benchmark since new interest rate reforms were announced on Saturday.
Oil futures were also down in a tentative sign that worries about an attack at a Saudi oil field over the weekend have eased, but some traders were nervously monitoring an Iranian tanker at the centre of a clash between Tehran and Washington.
For now, however, investors were cheered by signs policymakers were willing to do more to support their economies in the grip of international trade frictions, led by the bruising Sino-U.S. tariff tussle.
The immediate focus shifts to the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting due on Wednesday. Traders are also keenly waiting on the Fed’s Jackson Hole seminar and a Group of Seven summit this weekend for clues on what additional steps policymakers will take to bolster growth.
Senior White House officials are discussing a temporary payroll tax cut
to boost the economy, the Washington Post reported on Monday.
Hopes for additional stimulus are rising after reports that Germany is
prepared to increase fiscal spending, and after the People’s Bank of China took
steps to lower corporate borrowing costs.
“There are expectations for looser monetary policy everywhere in the
world, and this is cushioning the markets against recent uncertain
developments,” said Masayuki Kichikawa, chief macro strategist at Sumitomo
Mitsui Asset Management Co in Tokyo.
More
An Unlikely Economic Warning Sign: RV Sales Are Slipping
Some manufacturers in Elkhart, Ind., cut production as tariffs drive up costs of components
Shayndi RaiceAug. 19, 2019 5:30 am ET
Capital of the country’s recreational-vehicle industry, the northern Indiana city and the surrounding area
are watched by economists and investors for early indications of waning
consumer demand for luxury items, often the first sign of economic anxiety.Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.
“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Mr. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.
---- Elkhart has long offered its own economic bellwether—with captains’ chairs and onboard bathrooms.
About 65% of recreational vehicles in the U.S. are made in the Elkhart
region, as well as many of the tires, wheels, appliances and furniture that
goes into them. Elkhart ships its RVs to dealers, who are careful to avoid
carrying too much inventory and pull back orders when they sense cooling desire
for a luxury item like an RV.
A drop in consumer demand can ricochet back to Elkhart. Unemployment in
Elkhart County, which has a population of 200,000, was 3% in June, below the
national rate of 3.6%, according to federal data. But it is up from a low of
2.1% in April 2018. Weekly hours worked fell by half a percent in June.
During the last recession, Elkhart’s unemployment rate hit a high of 20%
in 2009.
More
Next, Germany.
Lookout Europe, when Germany sneezes all the rest of continental Euroland falls
down!
Bundesbank Warns German Economy Could Enter Recession
By Carolynn Look
August 19, 2019, 11:00 AM GMT+1
·
Report predicts listless momentum, possible
contraction ahead
·
German government has signaled more spending if
crisis worsens
Germany’s central bank warned that Europe’s largest economy could be about to tip into recession, adding to the pressure on policy makers to ramp up support.
The Bundesbank said in its monthly report that German output will remain “lackluster” in the third quarter and “could continue to fall slightly”. That would be a second straight quarter of contraction -- the typical definition of a recession -- after a 0.1% decline in the April-June period.
The prognosis follows weeks of worse-than-expected German data and meager corporate earnings reports. That has dragged down the rest of the euro area and prompted the European Central Bank to consider extra monetary stimulus. The government has also signaled that it might be willing to step up spending should the crisis worsen.
The Bundesbank cited persistently weak momentum in industry as a reason for the continued weakness, and said it’s unclear whether domestic demand might take a hit as well.
Up until a week ago, economists surveyed by Bloomberg foresaw growth of 0.2% in the current quarter, but since then big-name institutions including Deutsche Bank have lowered their projections.
The concern for many analysts is that continuing global trade tensions will prolong the downturn in manufacturing and eventually feed through to the still-strong services sector.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-19/bundesbank-sees-risk-german-economy-could-enter-recession?srnd=premium-europe
Wide implications as Germany teeters toward recession
BERLIN (AP) — Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse and biggest
economy, with companies like Volkswagen, Siemens and BASF, may be entering a
recession, according to a gloomy report from the country’s central bank Monday
— a development that could have repercussions for the rest of the eurozone and
the United States.
A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative
growth, and Germany saw a 0.1% drop in the April-to-June period. In its monthly
report, the Bundesbank said that with falling industrial production and orders,
it appears the slump is continuing during the July-to-September quarter.
“The overall economic performance could decline slightly once again,” it
said. “Central to this is the ongoing downturn in industry.”
Germany’s economy is heavily dependent on exports, and the Bundesbank said the trade conflict between the U.S. and China and uncertainty about Britain’s move to leave the European Union have been taking their toll. Both the U.S. and China are among Germany’s top trade partners, with Britain not far behind.
In addition, Germany’s auto industry __ with giants like Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW — faces challenges adjusting to tougher emissions standards in Europe and China and to technological change as demand grows for electric vehicles. Germany is also home to such major corporations as Bayer, Merck, Linde and the ThyssenKrupp Group.
The Bundesbank report is in line with a consensus among economists that “the risk of another quarter flirting with recession is high,” Carsten Brzeski, the chief economist for ING bank in Germany, told The Associated Press.
“The bigger picture is that the trade conflicts and uncertainty are finally starting to hurt one of the most open economies,” he said.
---- “If this stagnation/recession continues and leaves more lasting marks on the domestic economy, the rest of the world will also notice,” Brzeski said. “Just think of weaker German demand for foreign goods or a German slowdown dragging the rest of the eurozone down — it could be a bit of a boomerang effect for the U.S., showing that no one really wins trade wars.”
In the United States, a survey of business economists released Monday
found that 74% appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President
Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by
the end of 2021.
More
Trump Calls for a Big Fed Rate Cut, Again Criticizes Central Bank Chairman
President says Jerome Powell has ‘horrendous lack of vision,’ says big reduction would improve economy
Updated Aug. 19,
2019 7:49 pm ET
WASHINGTON—President Trump on Monday called for the Federal
Reserve to sharply cut interest rates and again criticized the central bank’s
chairman for a “horrendous lack of vision,” while reiterating his belief that
the U.S. economy is strong.The president said in a pair of tweets Monday morning that the Fed should cut its benchmark interest rate by at least a full percentage point and resume its crisis-era program of buying bonds to lower long-term borrowing costs. Such moves would typically be considered only when the economy faces serious peril, which Fed officials don’t believe to be the case.
White House officials have said in recent days that they don’t believe the U.S. is headed toward a slowdown.
Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, said Sunday that there were no signs of a recession and that the White House is considering tax cuts aimed at the middle class, which Mr. Trump floated before the 2018 midterms but didn’t ultimately pursue.
White House aides said Monday they are examining other proposals to bolster the economy.
Among the ideas being discussed is a cut in the payroll tax, but two people familiar with the matter said they didn’t expect such a proposal to be pursued.
One White House official said the president hasn’t endorsed the idea. Another White House official said Monday that “more tax cuts for the American people are certainly on the table, but cutting payroll taxes is not something under consideration at this time.”
Payroll taxes, which are separate from the federal income tax, fund Medicare and Social Security and come out of workers’ paychecks, paired with employer levies. For 2011 and 2012, employees’ Social Security payroll tax rate was cut to 4.2% from 6.2% as a revamped tax break that was started in the 2009 stimulus law. Congress let that payroll-tax cut expire.
The Washington Post reported earlier Monday that White House officials had begun discussions on a temporary payroll-tax cut.
More
“- Mrs. Marcus: Where did you get that funny accent? Are you from Harvard or something?
- J. Algernon Hawthorne: Harvard? Rather not. I'm English.
- Mrs. Marcus: Sounds so foreign.”
It’s A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, Apple warns, Disney denies. But what if….
Apple CEO warns Trump about China tariffs, Samsung competition
August 18, 2019
/ 11:08 PM
(Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he had spoken
with Apple Inc’s Chief Executive Tim Cook about the impact of U.S. tariffs on
Chinese imports as well as competition from South Korean company Samsung
Electronics Co Ltd.
Trump said Cook “made a good case” that tariffs could hurt Apple, given
that Samsung’s products would not be subject to those same tariffs. Tariffs on
an additional $300 billion (247 billion pounds) worth of Chinese goods, including
consumer electronics, are scheduled to go into effect in two stages on Sept. 1
and Dec. 15.
By contrast, the United States and South Korea struck a trade agreement
last September.
“I thought he made a very compelling argument, so I’m thinking about
it,” Trump said of Cook, speaking with reporters at a New Jersey airport.
U.S. stock futures rose upon opening on Sunday after Trump’s comments.
In addition to his comments on Apple, Trump said on Twitter earlier in the day
that his administration was “doing very well with China.”
Apple’s MacBook laptops and iPhones would not face the additional
tariffs until Dec. 15, but some of the company’s other products, including its
AirPods, Apple Watch and HomePod, would be subject to the levies on Sept. 1.
Apple was not immediately available for comment outside normal business
hours.
Disney whistleblower told SEC the company inflated revenue for years
By Francine
McKenna Published: Aug 19, 2019 3:07
p.m. ET
A former Walt Disney Co. accountant says she has filed a
series of whistleblower tips with the Securities and Exchange Commission
alleging the company has materially overstated revenue for years.Sandra Kuba, formerly a senior financial analyst in Disney’s DIS, +0.07% revenue-operations department who worked for the company for 18 years, alleges that employees working in the parks-and-resorts business segment systematically overstated revenue by billions of dollars by exploiting weaknesses in the company’s accounting software.
Kuba said she has met with officials from the SEC on several occasions to discuss the allegations.
A spokeswoman for the SEC declined to comment.
A Disney spokesperson said the company had reviewed the whistleblower’s claims and found that they were “utterly without merit.”
Kuba’s whistleblower filings, which have been reviewed by MarketWatch,
outline several ways employees allegedly boosted revenue, including recording
fictitious revenue for complimentary golf rounds or for free guest promotions.
Another alleged action Kuba described in her SEC filing involved recording
revenue for $500 gift cards at their face value even when guests paid a
discounted rate of $395.
Kuba has also alleged that employees sometimes recorded revenue twice
for gift cards, both when guests bought the gift card and when it was used at a
resort. Sometimes, revenue was recorded even though a gift card was given to a
guest for free following a customer complaint, for instance, according to the
whistleblower’s allegations.
Kuba’s filing alleges that flaws in the accounting software made the
manipulation difficult to trace, though the consequences could be significant.
In just one financial year, 2008-09, Disney’s annual revenue could have been
overstated by as much as $6 billion, Kuba’s whistleblower filing alleges. The
parks-and-resorts business segment reported total revenue of $10.6 billion in
2009, according to its annual report filed with the SEC.
More
“Honesty
is a very expensive gift. Don’t expect it from cheap people.”
Warren
Buffett.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
In the future, this electricity-free tech could help cool buildings in metropolitan areas
Date:
August 5, 2019
Source:
University at Buffalo
Summary:
Engineers designed a new system to help cool buildings in crowded metropolitan
areas without consuming electricity, an important innovation as cities work to
adapt to climate change. The system consists of an inexpensive polymer/aluminum
film that's installed inside a box at the bottom of a specially designed solar
'shelter.' The film helps keep its surroundings cool by absorbing heat from the
air inside the box and transmitting that energy into outer space.
Engineers have designed a new system that can help cool buildings in
crowded metropolitan areas without consuming electricity, an important
innovation at a time when cities are working to adapt to climate change.
The system consists of a special material -- an inexpensive
polymer/aluminum film -- that's installed inside a box at the bottom of a
specially designed solar "shelter." The film helps to keep its
surroundings cool by absorbing heat from the air inside the box and
transmitting that energy through the Earth's atmosphere into outer space. The
shelter serves a dual purpose, helping to block incoming sunlight, while also
beaming thermal radiation emitted from the film into the sky.
"The polymer stays cool as it dissipates heat through thermal
radiation, and can then cool down the environment," says co-first author
Lyu Zhou, a PhD candidate in electrical engineering in the University at
Buffalo School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. "This is called
radiative or passive cooling, and it's very interesting because it does not
consume electricity -- it won't need a battery or other electricity source to
realize cooling."
"One of the innovations of our system is the ability to
purposefully direct thermal emissions toward the sky," says lead
researcher Qiaoqiang Gan, PhD, UB associate professor of electrical
engineering. "Normally, thermal emissions travel in all directions. We
have found a way to beam the emissions in a narrow direction. This enables the
system to be more effective in urban environments, where there are tall buildings
on all sides. We use low-cost, commercially available materials, and find that
they perform very well."
Taken together, the shelter-and-box system the engineers designed
measures about 18 inches tall (45.72 centimeters), 10 inches wide and 10 inches
long (25.4 centimeters). To cool a building, numerous units of the system would
need to be installed to cover a roof.
The research will be published on Aug. 5 in Nature Sustainability.
The study was an international collaboration between Gan's group at UB, Boon Ooi's
group at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) in Saudi
Arabia, and Zongfu Yu's group at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Along
with Zhou, co-first authors are Haomin Song, PhD, UB assistant professor of
research in electrical engineering, and Jianwei Liang at KAUST. The study was
funded in part by the National Science Foundation.
A system that works during the day and in crowded environments
The new passive cooling system addresses an important problem in the
field: How radiative cooling can work during the day and in crowded urban
areas.
"During the night, radiative cooling is easy because we don't have
solar input, so thermal emissions just go out and we realize radiative cooling
easily," Song says. "But daytime cooling is a challenge because the
sun is shining. In this situation, you need to find strategies to prevent
rooftops from heating up. You also need to find emissive materials that don't
absorb solar energy. Our system address these challenges."
When placed outside during the day, the
heat-emanating film and solar shelter helped reduce the temperature of a small,
enclosed space by a maximum of about 6 degrees Celsius (11 degrees Fahrenheit).
At night, that figure rose to about 11 degrees Celsius (about 20 degrees Fahrenheit).
More
“Listen, anything you got to say about your
mother-in-law, you don't have to explain to me. You know what I mean? Like if
she were the star of a real crummy horror movie, I'd believe it.”
It’s A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,864 +53 Up. NASDAQ: 8,175 +65 Down.
SP500: 2,980 +53 Up.
The S&P and Dow remain up, but in very unconvincing fashion. The NASDAQ remains down. Like the Fed, I would await a better data
driven signal.
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