Baltic Dry Index. 1864
+90 Brent
Crude 60.66 Spot Gold $1,498
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe. 78
days away.
Nuclear Trump
China Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war
postponed to November, maybe.
“If a
country consumes more than it produces, it must import more than it exports.
That's not a rip-off that's arithmetic.
If we manage to negotiate a reduction in the Chinese trade surplus with the United States, we will have increased trade deficits with some other country.
Federal deficit spending, a massive and continuing act of dissavings, is the culprit. Control that spending and you will control the trade deficit.”
If we manage to negotiate a reduction in the Chinese trade surplus with the United States, we will have increased trade deficits with some other country.
Federal deficit spending, a massive and continuing act of dissavings, is the culprit. Control that spending and you will control the trade deficit.”
Having placed his re-election
prospects firmly on the fate of the fickle US stock markets, President Trump
U-turned again in his anti-China trade war yesterday, in the face of a renewed
stock market decline.
Some of the extra
tariffs due on September one are now delayed until December 15, while others have
been removed entirely. China offered nothing back in return, a weakness that
will be noted, and probably exploited next year, by Beijing.
By wobbling the
Yuan-dollar rate, Beijing can rattle US stock markets and that in turn rattles
President Trump into concessions necessary to shore up US stock markets. I doubt
that this new game can run as far as November 2020, but if it does there can
only be one winner and that’s China.
A secondary winner in
all this chaos is the US consumer, who gets a sort of price break on Chinese
goods before Christmas. How it affects US retailers is harder to say as all
this chaos makes for impossible planning.
Another probable
loser in all this nonsense is the US agriculture sector, for now China has no
need to placate President Trump by making purchases.
Below, President
Trump starts to outdo even President Carter. And we still have Brexit and a US v EU
trade war to come.
Asian stocks bounce in relief as Trump delays China tariffs
August 14, 2019 /
2:08 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian stocks joined a global equities surge on Wednesday, after Washington
delayed tariffs on some Chinese imports and gave much-needed relief for markets
gripped by political and economic turmoil.
The tariff news largely offset a raft of disappointing China data for July. The yen JPY= rose on the news about weak China's industrial production and other data.
Wall Street stocks soared overnight as U.S. President Donald Trump backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on the remaining Chinese imports, delaying duties on cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods in the hopes of blunting their impact on U.S. holiday sales.
The surge in U.S. stocks lifted MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS by 0.9%.
The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC advanced 0.6% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng .HSI, which has been hurt by disruptions from large anti-government protests, rose 0.5%.
South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 advanced 0.8% and Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 0.6%.
Yet Wednesday’s bounce hardly clawed back the sizable losses for equities over recent months, and broad market sentiment remained fragile given that the U.S.-China trade conflict is still far from resolved.
Uncertainty around political risks such as the unrest in Hong Kong also
continue to keep investors on edge.
Kenta Inoue, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley
Securities, pointed out that Trump’s tariff delay came just as U.S. stocks were
stalling.
“This appears to be a routine ploy by the U.S. president, who applies
trade pressure on China when stocks are doing well and opts for compromise when
they are not,” Inoue said.
More
Oil prices drop on weak China economic data, U.S. stocks rise
August 14, 2019
/ 2:22 AM
Brent crude LCOc1 was down 64 cents, or 1%, at $60.66 a barrel at 0446
GMT, after rising 4.7% on Tuesday, the biggest percentage gain since December.
U.S. oil CLc1 was down 75 cents, or 1.3%, at $56.35 a barrel, having
risen 4% the previous session, the most in just over a month.
China reported a raft of unexpectedly weak July data, including a
surprise drop in industrial output growth to a more than 17-year low,
underlining widening economic cracks as the trade war with the United States
intensifies.
“Deteriorating China industrial output and consumer spending suggest the
fundamental picture isn’t great and the demand for energy may be under the
pressure,” said Margaret Yang, market analyst at CMC Markets.
Profit taking after Tuesday’s sharp gains also weighed on crude prices
on Wednesday, analysts said.
“The moves in oil were so outsized overnight, that some profit taking in
Asia was logical,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, Asia Pacific at
OANDA.
Benchmark crude prices surged on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald
Trump backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on some products
affecting about half of the $300 billion target list of Chinese goods.
But with about $110 billion worth of Chinese imports still subject to
the tariffs increase next month, the delay will not solve the core issues
between the U.S. and China, said Yang.
“Markets will perhaps soon come down to earth and face the reality of a
world of elevated trade tariffs, slower growth and policy inconsistency.”
Markets have been pummelled in recent weeks amid tough talk from Trump
on trade.
China’s commerce ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that U.S. and
Chinese trade officials spoke on the phone and agreed to talk again within two
weeks.
More
Predicting the next U.S. recession
August 13, 2019 /
4:28 PM
NEW YORK (Reuters)
- A protracted trade war between China and the United States, the world’s
largest economies, and a deteriorating global growth outlook has left investors
apprehensive about the end to the longest expansion in American history.
The recent rise in U.S.-China trade war tensions has brought forward the
next U.S. recession, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters
who now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in September and once
more next year.
Trade tensions have pulled corporate confidence and global growth to
multi-year lows and U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of more tariffs
have raised downside risks significantly, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a
recent note.
Morgan Stanley forecast that if the U.S. lifts tariffs on all imports
from China to 25 percent for 4-6 months and China takes countermeasures, the
U.S. would be in recession in three quarters.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc said on Sunday that fears of the U.S.-China trade
war leading to a recession are increasing and that Goldman no longer expects a
trade deal between the world’s two largest economies before the 2020 U.S.
presidential election.
Global markets remain on edge with trade-related headlines spurring big
moves in either direction. On Tuesday, U.S. stocks jumped sharply higher and
safe-havens like the Japanese yen and Gold retreated after the U.S. Trade
Representative said additional tariffs on some Chinese goods, including cell
phones and laptops, will be delayed to Dec. 15.
Besides watching developments on the trade front economists and
investors are watching for signs they hope can alert them to a coming
recession.
More
Next, with Brexit still
to come, Europe’s number one economy, Germany, and its number two economy,
Great Britain, are both flirting with recession. How long before the whole
wealth and jobs destroying, EUSSR slides into full recession? Will the EUSSR
lead the world back into the next global recession?
German economic sentiment tumbles to lowest level since 2011
Key poll shows financial experts most
gloomy since eurozone debt crisis
13 August 2019.
Expectations for
the German economy have slumped to their lowest level since the eurozone debt
crisis eight years ago amid deepening concerns over the US-China trade dispute
and the potential for a chaotic UK exit from the EU.
The Zew survey of
financial market experts revealed on Tuesday that economic sentiment in August
had dropped to minus 44.1, its lowest since December 2011 and much gloomier
than estimates from analysts in a Reuters poll who had predicted it to be minus
28.5.
The index had come
in at minus 24.5 in July. The experts polled showed that current conditions for
the month were minus 13.5, down from minus 6.5 in July and worse than the
predicted minus 7.
Turmoil in the country’s carmaking industry, the US-China
trade spat and the prospect of a messy no-deal Brexit at the end of October
have taken their toll on the export-orientated economy.
The poll points to
a “significant deterioration in the outlook for the German economy”, said Achim
Wambach, president of Zew. “The most recent escalation in the trade dispute
between the US and China, the risk of competitive devaluations and the
increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit place additional pressure on the
already weak economic growth. This will most likely put a further strain on the
development of German exports and industrial production.”
Tuesday’s figures
show the fifth consecutive monthly decline in the respected poll, while apart
from April this year the indicator has shown negative figures since March 2018.
The index has been below its long-term average of 21.8 points for three years
since September 2015.
Quarterly gross
domestic product figures, due on Wednesday, are expected by the Bundesbank and
a Reuters poll of analysts to show that the German economy shrank 0.1 per cent
in the three months to June. GDP in the first quarter had expanded 0.4 per cent
while second-quarter eurozone growth came in at 0.2 per cent.
More
Meanwhile in Asia
economic growth is stalling even without the new drag from events in Hong Kong.
Singapore cuts growth outlook as trade war bites
Date created : 13/08/2019 - 07:24
Singapore (AFP) Singapore further cut its annual growth forecast on
Tuesday as the escalating US-China trade war hammers exports, in another
ominous sign for Asia's trade-reliant economies.
The government said it expected growth of 0.0-1.0 percent this year,
sharply down from the 1.5-2.5 percent previously estimated, marking the second
downward revision this year. The economy expanded 3.2 percent in 2018.
The export hub is highly sensitive to external shocks and has
traditionally been one of the first places in Asia to be hit during global
downturns -- with ripples then spreading out across the rest of the region.
Shipments from the city-state have plunged while its economy suffered a
surprise quarter-on-quarter contraction in the three months to June, as
Beijing's row with Washington hit the complex global trading system.
"The growth prospects of key emerging markets and developing economies...
and China have worsened, partly due to the escalation of the US-China trade
conflict in recent months," the trade ministry said.
"Uncertainties and downside risks in the global economy have
increased since three months ago," it warned, citing US President Donald
Trump's announcement this month he would impose tariffs on an additional $300
billion of imports from China.
"This could severely dent global business and global confidence,
with adverse implications on global trade and global economic growth."
Singapore has been particularly hard hit by falling demand for
electronic goods, a key export that is vital to the manufacturing sector.
DBS Bank said the downgraded forecast has strengthened the case for
Singapore to ease monetary policy during a meeting in October in a bid to
stimulate the economy.
With little sign that US-China trade row will be resolved soon, exports
have been slipping across Asia and governments have slashed economic growth
forecasts.
Finally, that other
active trade war between Japan and South Korea. Anything you can do we can do
too, says South Korea. How long before a new deep, unnecessary, global
recession arrives?
South Korea removes Japan from trusted trade list in retaliatory move
Aug. 12, 2019 /
4:04 AM
SEOUL, Aug. 12 (UPI) -- South Korea announced Monday that it would be
removing Japan from its top tier of preferred trading partners, a retaliatory
move in an ongoing trade and diplomatic dispute that has soured relations
between the neighboring countries.
South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said that it would
be amending its list of trade partner categories from two tiers to three and
adding Japan to the new category.
The newly created bracket is for countries that are parties to the export control regimes but have "improper operating practices," Trade Minister Sung Yun-mo said at a press briefing at the ministry headquarters in Sejong.
"Close international cooperation is required to operate the export control system," he added.
Sung said that the change will be implemented in September after a 20-day period for comment gathering and regulatory and legislative review. Japan would be able to ask for a consultation during the review period, the minister said.
Under the revamped regulations, Korean suppliers shipping strategic materials to Japan will have to submit five documents for approval, up from the current three. The approval process will now take longer as well, lasting up to 15 days from the current five.
The move comes on the heels of Japan's decision on Aug. 2 to remove South Korea from its own white list of preferred trading partners, an action that is slated to go into effect later this month. That move could require an approval process of up to 90 days for a list of over 1,000 items deemed sensitive.
Japan had already slapped export restrictions on three key materials used in South Korea's high-tech manufacturing industry the previous month, setting relations between the neighboring countries on edge.
Tokyo has said the tightened controls were implemented for security reasons, but Seoul claims they are retaliation for a Supreme Court decision last year that stated Japanese companies must provide compensation to their victims of wartime forced labor.
---- In South Korea, the trade flap has triggered a large-scale consumer boycott of Japanese products, which has targeted everything from Asahi beer to Uniqlo clothing to travel to Japan.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has spoken out forcefully against Japan's moves, calling the export restrictions "a selfish, destructive act that will cripple the global supply chain and wreak havoc on the global economy."
On Monday, however, he struck a more measured tone, saying that responses to Japan "should not be emotional" and calling for maintaining the "friendly relations between the two peoples."
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2019/08/12/South-Korea-removes-Japan-from-trusted-trade-list-in-retaliatory-move/6751565593583/?ts_fn=1
"The
rules-based multilateral trading system is the bedrock of economic
globalization and free trade, and provides important safeguards for win-win
outcomes. The authority and efficacy of the system should be respected and
protected. Some WTO rules do need to be improved. The right approach is for all
to sit down as equals to find solutions.
"The
fundamental principles of free trade should be upheld, the interests and
concerns of all parties be accommodated, and the broadest possible consensus on
reform be built up. Taking a unilateralist approach will not solve any problems."
Chinese Premier Li
Keqiang. World Economic Forum, China, September 2018.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, US agriculture again. Who’s right, the USDA
or the farmers themselves? On Monday Mr. Market bet on the USDA and corn prices
fell limit down. I have my doubts that the USDA got this one right. On Tuesday
corn prices bounced ever so slightly.
Corn prices dive as USDA predictions show increase in fall yields
Aug. 12, 2019 /
3:46 PM
Aug. 12 (UPI) -- The price for corn tumbled Monday afternoon after the U.S.
Department of Agriculture released its latest
crop estimates, showing farmers have planted far more acres this year than
private analysts anticipated.Corn prices were down 25 cents per bushel Monday afternoon, which is the greatest decline in a day that is allowed by federal law, said Sal Gilbertie, the president and chief investment officer of Teucrium Trading, a Vermont-based company that sponsors agriculturally focused exchange traded products.
"It's a huge deal," Gilbertie said. "We're at the limit-down for corn. We haven't seen limit-down in corn since -- I can't remember when."
But though the market tends follows the official federal predictions, the difference between the government estimates and those from the private sector are so stark that some question the veracity of the USDA's numbers.
"There does seem to be a disconnect somewhere because the [USDA's] acreage estimate for corn planted in Illinois is higher than what our farmer-members are telling us is out there, and higher than the numbers that are being shared anecdotally by crop insurance agents," the Illinois Corn Growers Association said in a statement.
According to the USDA, there are 90 million acres of planted corn. That estimate is down from the agency's June estimate of 91.7 million -- but nowhere near what analysts expected. The average trade estimate is 87.7 million acres, according to Successful Farming.
Even more surprising, Gilbertie said, the USDA's latest prediction for corn yields increased from 166 bushels per acre in June to 169.5. That means the agency's estimate for total corn production has increased to 13.9 billion bushels.
"No one expected that," Gilbertie said.
AccuWeather analysts, for example, predict the total 2019 production to be 13.07 billion bushels.
"The difference between the estimates centers on forecasts for projected corn acres harvested," according to AccuWeather. The average trade estimate for 2019 production is 13.1 billion bushels, according to Successful Farming.
Across the Midwest, farmers have encountered poor weather for crop rearing. Historically heavy rains during the spring delayed or prevented millions of acres from being planted. Then, as spring gave way to summer, many areas experienced unusually dry weather, which threatened to kill off newly planted fields.
What's more, because many acres were planted far later than normal, farmers fear the crops will not mature enough by harvest time for optimal yields.
"Corn needs a certain amount of heat throughout the growing season to mature," said Tricia Braid, a spokeswoman for the Illinois Corn Growers Association.
With so many conflicting reports, corn prices will likely remain volatile until fall harvest, Gilbertie said.
"We'll have to wait and see," he said. "As we get closer to harvest, the numbers will become less an estimate and more reality. All of this is just a guess at this point. Anything can happen."
As we learned after
President Herbert Hoover signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff at the outset of the
Great Depression, vibrant international trade is a key component to economic
recovery; hindering trade is a recipe for disaster.
Asa Hutchinson
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Incredible Stanford study discovers thousands of novel proteins produced by human microbiome
Rich Haridy August 12th, 2019A remarkable new study from scientists at Stanford University has revealed thousands of previously undiscovered small proteins produced by bacteria in the human microbiome. Almost all of these newly described proteins serve unknown functions in the human body and the researchers suggest their discovery opens up a new frontier for future therapeutic drug development.
"It's critically important to understand the interface between
human cells and the microbiome," explains Ami Bhatt, senior author on the
recently published study. "How do they communicate? How do strains of
bacteria protect themselves from other strains? These functions are likely to
be found in very small proteins, which may be more likely than larger proteins
to be secreted outside the cell."
These tiny proteins have traditionally been ignored by researchers due
to fundamental difficulties in detecting them. They are generally smaller than
50 amino acids in length and most likely serve critical communication functions
between bacterial strains and the hosts they inhabit. To track down these small
signaling proteins, the researchers zoomed in on the bacterial genomes.
"The bacterial genome is like a book with long strings of letters,
only some of which encode the information necessary to make proteins,"
says Bhatt. "Traditionally, we identify the presence of protein-coding
genes within this book by searching for combinations of letters that indicate
the 'start' and 'stop' signals that sandwich genes. This works well for larger
proteins. But the smaller the protein, the more likely that this technique
yields large numbers of false positives that muddy the results."
Using a novel computational approach the researchers carried out a comparative genomics study revealing over 4,000 protein families, the majority of which have never previously been identified.
The sheer volume of the discovery surprised the research team, which expected to maybe find a few hundred novel strings of small-protein-coding genes, but instead discovered thousands.
The study offers hypotheses as to the function of some of these small protein families, based on their genomic neighborhood, prevalence across certain human body sites, and other factors. Some of the newly discovered small protein families, for example, share genetic traits with previously discovered proteins known to enhance antibiotic resistance.
The paper, published in the journal Cell, offers a comprehensive summary of all 4,539 newly discovered small protein families, essentially serving as a large new catalog for future research. The next step is to begin understanding what mechanical functions these novel small proteins serve, opening the door to potential new antibiotics or other drugs for therapeutic human uses.
"Small proteins can be synthesized rapidly and could be used by the bacteria as biological switches to toggle between functional states or to trigger specific reactions in other cells," says Bhatt. "They are also easier to study and manipulate than larger proteins, which could facilitate drug development. We anticipate this to be a valuable new area of biology for study."
The new research was published in the journal Cell.
https://newatlas.com/new-small-protein-discovery-gut-microbiome-bacteria-stanford/60995/?utm_source=New+Atlas+Subscribers&utm_campaign=1edb35ed41-UA-2235360-4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_65b67362bd-1edb35ed41-90625829
“Every man lives by exchanging.”
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished July
DJIA: 26,864 +53 Up. NASDAQ: 8,175 +65 Down.
SP500: 2,980 +53 Up.
The S&P and Dow remain up, but in very unconvincing fashion. The NASDAQ remains down. Like the Fed, I would await a better data
driven signal.
No comments:
Post a Comment