Baltic Dry Index. 2378 +101 Brent Crude 60.43
Spot Gold 1520
Never ending Brexit now October 31,
maybe. 61 days away.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs
Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to
November, maybe.
It is the maxim of every
prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost
him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the conduct of every private
family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.
Adam Smith. The Wealth of
Nations, 1776.
From stocks, to commodities, to bonds,
most markets limped out of August and into September. Stock markets have mostly been in one big
whiplash churn all year. Industrial commodities in slump reflecting a deepening
manufacturing recession, agricultural commodities sliding due to the America v
China trade war, with new US tariffs due to start tomorrow.
Next week’s big story might be about
Hurricane Dorian and the damage it does in the Bahamas and to the southeast
coast of America. Then again, if Beijing intervenes in Hong Kong next week,
that might be next week’s big story. Or even perhaps Germany if the voters
there tomorrow swing hard right.
Global stocks edge higher but
yuan weakens as tariffs loom
August 30, 2019 / 1:52 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Hopes for a thaw in
the U.S.-China trade war helped a gauge of global stocks edge higher on Friday
despite weakness on Wall Street, though caution over pending U.S. tariffs on
Chinese goods put the yuan on track for its biggest monthly decline in 25
years.
Statements
from U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s commerce ministry on Thursday that
the countries were engaged in trade talks brought some respite to equities,
which have been roiled by the escalating trade war.
The
pan-European STOXX 600 ended 0.7% higher, helped by a surge in German real
estate shares. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.19%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell
22.89 points, or 0.09%, to 26,339.36, the S&P 500 .SPX lost
4.5 points, or 0.15%, to 2,920.08 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC
dropped 36.01 points, or 0.45%, to 7,937.38.
U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day
holiday.
Despite the day’s gains, MSCI’s gauge of global stocks was
on track for its second monthly loss of the year and its biggest August
percentage decline since 2015.
Some market watchers expressed caution given the
fluctuating rhetoric. Despite recent conciliatory comments, the Trump
administration on Sunday is scheduled to begin collecting 15% tariffs on more
than $125 billion (101.8 billion pounds) in Chinese imports, including smart
speakers, Bluetooth headphones and many types of footwear.
China's yuan CNH=
fell 0.30% to 7.1637 per dollar and was on track for its weakest month since
Beijing's currency reform in 1994.
New trade developments ahead of the re-opening of U.S.
financial markets on Tuesday could sway sentiment, said Ken Polcari, managing
principal at Butcher Joseph Asset Management in New York.
“Tariffs are being implemented on Sept. 1 from the U.S.,”
Polcari said. “The fact is (China) very well could retaliate, and no one should
be surprised if they do. With an extra day of no trading, it could be that kind
of news that causes a disruption to the market.”
More
September is the worst month
for stocks — and it’s even gloomier after a downbeat August
Stock market investors hate to see summer end, and it’s not
because they fear shorter days or the back-to-school rush.
August is typically a weak month for stock market
performance, and September is the only month that, on average, is worse for
equity-market prices.
Since 1937, the average September performance of the
S&P 500 index SPX, +0.06% and the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA, +0.16%
is a 1% decline, while the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP, -0.13% has seen
an average fall of 0.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Such performance wouldn’t be welcome news for equity market
investors, who suffered through a 1.7% August decline for the Dow, a 1.8% loss
for the S&P and a 2.6% drop for the Nasdaq.These are the worst August
performances for all three benchmarks since 2015.
And following an August when the S&P 500 has fallen
more than 1.5%, the Dow performs worse, down 1.1% on average, while the Nasdaq
has seen an average fall of 0.8%. The S&P 500 does a bit better than the
average September following an August decline of 1.5% or more, falling 0.9%.
August has been an even worse month for small-and-mid-cap
stocks, as the S&P Mid Cap 400 and S&P Small Cap 600 are on pace for
its worst Augusts since 2011, underscoring the struggles of the typical public
company that have persisted all year. The equal-weighted Value Line Geometric
index VALUG, +0.03%, which tracks
the median performance of roughly 1700 publicly listed companies, has fallen
more than 15% below its Aug. 29, 2018 highs, illustrating the bifurcated nature
of today’s equity markets.
More
Next more on hurricane Dorian, still
headed towards America’s southeast coast.
Dorian becomes a Category 4
monster powering toward Florida
By ADRIANA GOMEZ LICON and ELLIS RUA August 30 2019
MIAMI (AP) — Hurricane Dorian powered toward Florida with
increasing fury Friday, becoming an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm but
leaving forecasters uncertain whether it would make a direct hit on the state’s
east coast or inflict a glancing blow.
The storm’s winds rose to 130 mph (215 kph) and then, hours
later, to a howling 140 mph (225 kph) as Dorian gained strength while crossing
warm Atlantic waters. The hurricane could wallop the state with even higher
winds and torrential rains late Monday or early Tuesday, with millions of
people in the crosshairs, along with Walt Disney World and President Donald
Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
resort.
Though Dorian is growing in intensity, some of the more
reliable computer models predicted a late turn northward that would have Dorian
hug the coast, the National Hurricane Center said.
“There is
hope,” Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters said.
The faint
hope came on a day in which Dorian seemed to get scarier with each forecast
update, growing from a dangerous Category 3 hurricane to an even more menacing
Category 4 storm. And there were fears it could prove to be the most powerful
hurricane to hit Florida’s east coast in nearly 30 years.
Late Friday,
the National Hurricane Center’s projected new track showed Dorian hitting near
Fort Pierce, some 70 miles (115 kilometers) north of Mar-a-Lago, then running
along the coastline as it moved north. But forecasters cautioned that the
storm’s track was still highly uncertain and even a small deviation could put
Dorian offshore or well inland.
Trump
declared a state of emergency in Florida and authorized the Federal Emergency
Management Agency to coordinate disaster-relief efforts. He told reporters that
“Mar-a-Lago can handle itself” and is more worried about Florida.
---- As Dorian closed in, it upended
people’s Labor Day weekend plans. Major airlines began allowing travelers to
change their reservations without a fee. The big cruise lines began rerouting
their ships. Disney
World and the other resorts in Orlando found themselves in the storm’s
projected path.
---- Still, with Dorian days away and its track
uncertain, Disney and other major resorts held off announcing any closings, and
Florida authorities ordered no immediate mass evacuations.
More
In other news, is Beijing preparing for
a crackdown in Hong Kong after Beijing finishes celebrating the 70th
anniversary of Communist China, on October 1? But will Beijing wait that long? Below, signs
that Beijing is running out of patience.
Update 10:40 am 31 August
2019. China denies Reuters exclusive below.
Reuters fake report on Hong
Kong is a stain on global journalism
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/8/31
5:47:31
According to a so-called
"exclusive" Reuters report released Friday, Carrie Lam, Chief
Executive of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), submitted a
proposal to Beijing earlier this summer that asked for "5 key
demands" from the Hong Kong protesters to be taken seriously but was
rejected.
The Global Times has since learned the Reuters story is fake. In fact, it
intends to create an illusion by interweaving rumors with public events in an
attempt to misguide public opinion. The story incorrectly refers to a joint
symposium between the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government and the
Hong Kong SAR on August 7 and takes advantage the HKSAR government with its
rhetoric to add hues and colors to the fake story.
This has become a shameless public opinion battle. Reuters acknowledged they
did not see Lam's proposal. The so-called sensitive breaking news was
supposedly based on information received from three unnamed sources. Such
action is comparable to the violent protestors in the streets of Hong Kong. It
is believed the unnamed sources are fabricated, or they are fake news
conspirators.
More
Exclusive: Amid crisis, China
rejected Hong Kong plan to appease protesters - sources
August 30, 2019 / 7:10 AM
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Earlier this summer,
Carrie Lam, the chief executive of Hong Kong, submitted a report to Beijing
that assessed protesters’ five key demands and found that withdrawing a
contentious extradition bill could help defuse the mounting political crisis in
the territory.
The Chinese
central government rejected Lam’s proposal to withdraw the extradition bill and
ordered her not to yield to any of the protesters’ other demands at that time,
three individuals with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
China’s role
in directing how Hong Kong handles the protests has been widely assumed,
supported by stern statements in state media about the country’s sovereignty
and protesters’ “radical” goals.
Beijing’s
rebuff of Lam’s proposal for how to resolve the crisis, detailed for the first
time by Reuters, represents concrete evidence of the extent to which China is
controlling the Hong Kong government’s response to the unrest.
The Chinese
central government has condemned the protests and accused foreign powers of
fuelling unrest. The Foreign Ministry has repeatedly warned other nations
against interfering in Hong Kong, reiterating that the situation there is an
“internal affair.”
Lam’s report
on the tumult, made before an Aug. 7 meeting in Shenzhen about Hong Kong led by
senior Chinese officials that examined the feasibility of the five demands of
the protesters, analysing how conceding to some of these might quiet things
down, the individuals with direct knowledge said.
In addition
to the withdrawal of the extradition bill, the other demands analysed in the
report were: an independent inquiry into the protests; fully democratic
elections; dropping of the term “riot” in describing protests; and dropping
charges against those arrested so far.
The withdrawal of the bill and an
independent inquiry were seen to be the most feasible politically, according to
a senior government official in the Hong Kong administration, who spoke on
condition of anonymity. He said the move was envisioned as helping pacify some
of the more moderate protesters who have been angered by Lam’s silence.
---- Beijing told Lam not to withdraw the bill, or to
launch an inquiry into the tumult, including allegations of excessive police
force, according to the senior government official.
Another of
the three individuals, who has close ties with senior officials in Hong Kong
and also declined to be identified, confirmed the Hong Kong government had
submitted the report.
“They said
no” to all five demands, said the source. “The situation is far more
complicated than most people realise.”
The third
individual, a senior Chinese official, said that the Hong Kong government had
submitted the report to the Central Co-ordination Group for Hong Kong and Macau
Affairs, a high-level group led by Politburo Standing Committee member Han
Zheng, and that President Xi Jinping was aware of it.
More
Finally, with slavery in America commemorating
an anniversary of sorts this month, America’s first slaves arrived in August 1619,
time to look back at slavery’s ending in
Scotland and England. Though England got there first in 1772 via the case of Somerset
v Stewart, King’s Bench 1772, it wasn’t for lack of trying in Scotland.
Feature: Slavery, freedom or
perpetual servitude? - the Joseph Knight case
Between 1756
and 1778 three cases reached the Court of Session in Edinburgh whereby runaway
slaves attempted to obtain their freedom. A central argument in each case was
that the slave, having been bought in the colonies, had been subsequently
baptised by sympathetic church ministers in Scotland. The three cases were
Montgomery v Sheddan (1756), Spens v Dalrymple (1769) and Knight v Wedderburn
(1778).
The last of
these cases was the only one decided by the Court. James Montgomery (formerly
'Shanker', the property of Robert Sheddan of Morrishill in Ayrshire) died in
the Edinburgh Tolbooth before his case could be decided. David Spens
(previously 'Black Tom', belonging to Dr David Dalrymple in Methill in Fife)
sued Dalrymple for wrongful arrest but Dalrymple died during the suit. Finally
Joseph Knight was partially successful in arguing that Scots law could not
support the status of slavery.
Joseph
Knight's legal challenge began in 1774 in the Justices of the Peace court in
Perth, where he sought the freedom to leave the employment of John Wedderburn
of Bandean (or Ballendean) in Perthshire. Knight claimed that, although many
years earlier he had been purchased by Wedderburn in Jamaica from a slave
trader, the act of landing in Scotland freed him from perpetual servitude, as
slavery was not recognised in Scotland. The Justices of the Peace found in
favour of Wedderburn.
However, Knight appealed to the Sheriff of Perth, who
found that 'the state of slavery is not recognised by the laws of this kingdom,
and is inconsistent with the principles thereof: That the regulations in
Jamaica, concerning slaves, do not extend to this kingdom; and repelled the
defender's claim to a perpetual service'.
Wedderburn
then appealed to the Court of Session, Scotland's supreme civil court. His main
argument was that slavery and perpetual servitude were different states, and
that in Scots law, Knight, even though he was not recognised as a slave, was
still bound to provide perpetual service in the same manner as an indentured
servant or an apprenticed artisan.
Knight
refers to the ruling in the Somerset case of 1772, where the Lord Chief Justice
had used a writ of habeas corpus to prevent the forcible return to Jamaica of a
runaway slave in England and then ruled that 'no master ever was allowed here
(England) to take a slave by force to be sold abroad because he deserted from
his service'.
The records
relating to the Knight v Wedderburn case survive among Court of Session records
in the NAS (reference CS235/K/2/2). They consist of five bundles of papers, including
an extract of process by the Sheriff Depute of Perth (20 May 1774), an extract
of process by the Lords of Council and Session (30 May 1774), and memorials for
John Wedderburn and Joseph Knight (1775). Of these, the memorials are the most
interesting. In their respective memorials each man presents his side of the
story and legal arguments concerning the definition of perpetual servitude.
Wedderburn blamed Knight's relationship with another servant, and her
subsequent pregnancy, as the cause of a falling out between master and servant
and Knight's desire to leave his service. Knight's 40-page memorial includes an
account of his life (including his baptism and marriage in Scotland), evidence
- partly in French - on enslavement of Africans by their chiefs as judicial
punishments, and descriptions of the miseries of slavery in the colonies.
Despite
Wedderburn's evidence, the Court of Session ruled that 'the dominion assumed
over this Negro, under the law of Jamaica, being unjust, could not be supported
in this country to any extent: That, therefore, the defender had no right to
the Negro's service for any space of time, nor to send him out of the country
against his consent: That the Negro was likewise protected under the act 1701,
c.6. from being sent out of the country against his consent.' The judgements of
the Sheriff were approved of, and the Court remitted the cause simpliciter
(that is, it rejected Wedderburn's appeal without qualification).
Essentially
Knight succeeded in arguing that he should be allowed to leave domestic service
and provide a home for his wife and child. In doing so he gave the Court of
Session the opportunity to declare that slavery was not recognised by Scots law
and that runaway slaves (or 'perpetual servants') could be protected by the
courts if they wished to leave domestic service or if attempts were made to
forcibly remove them from Scotland and return them to slavery in the colonies.
This weekend’s musical diversion. Time
for Mr. Handel. Time for organs and harps. Like any sensible German, he took up
British citizenship.
G.F. HÄNDEL: Organ Concerto in
B flat major Op.4/2 HWV 290, La Divina Armonia
Händel. Concierto 6 para arpa
y orquesta. Orquesta Ciudad de AlmerÃa. Festival Vélez Blanco 2016
Consumption is the sole
end and purpose of all production; and the interest of the producer ought to be
attended to, only so far as it may be necessary for promoting that of the
consumer.
Adam Smith. The Wealth of
Nations, 1776.
The monthly Coppock Indicators
finished August
DJIA: 26,403
+52 Down. NASDAQ: 7,963 +59 Down. SP500: 2,926 +53 unchanged.
An inconclusive month, but all three shows signs of weakening.
