Baltic
Dry Index 905 -34
Brent Crude 61.00
Trump
25 percent tariffs 32 days away. Brexit 61
days away.
As usual the Liberals offer a mixture of sound and
original ideas. Unfortunately none of the sound ideas is original and none of
the original ideas is sound.
Prime Minister Harold MacMillan
An interesting week ahead. The US Government reopens. China v USA trade
talks resume in Washington. The Federal
Reserve holds its first meeting of 2019, though it’s expected to remain firmly
in President Trump’s camp and leave its key interest rate unchanged. Apple and
Microsoft report results during the week. Brexit gets another round of voting in the UK Parliament. The EU – Japan trade
treaty comes into effect on February 1st. The USA seems to be lining
up allies in South America to invade Venezuela.
Below stocks in Asia cautiously probe higher.
Stocks advance after U.S. government reopens for now
January 28, 2019 / 12:41 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks advanced on Monday as
Wall Street rallied after a deal was announced to reopen the U.S. government
following a prolonged shutdown that had taken a toll on investor sentiment.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan climbed 0.4 percent.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7 percent and
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.5 percent.
South Korea’s KOSPI edged up 0.1 percent, while
Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend and eased 0.3 percent. Australian financial
markets were shut for their ‘Australia Day’ holiday.Facing mounting pressure,
U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on Friday to temporarily end a 35-day-old
partial U.S. government shutdown without getting the $5.7 billion he had
demanded from Congress for a border wall.
In response Wall Street rallied broadly on Friday
as investors were relieved to see an end to one of the longest U.S. government
shutdown in history.
---- “The rise in the broader stock markets looks to keep going. The U.S. government reopening is definitely a plus for market sentiment,” said Soichiro Monji, senior economist at Daiwa SB Investments.
“There are still potential risk factors, such as
the U.S.-China trade row and Brexit,” he said.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United
States on Jan. 30-31 for the next round of trade negotiations with Washington.
More
White House lifts sanctions on firms linked to Putin ally
Date created :
The Treasury Department on Sunday announced it was
lifting sanctions on three companies connected to Russian oligarch Oleg
Deripaska.
The move comes despite an effort in Congress to block the action with many lawmakers concerned that the Trump administration is not being tough enough on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies.
Treasury said it was removing Russian aluminum giant Rusal and two other companies from its sanctions list on the grounds that the companies have reduced Derapaska's direct and indirect shareholding stake in the three companies.
Congress voted earlier this month to try to block the administration's efforts to remove the sanctions. In the House, 136 Republicans joined Democrats to disapprove the deal while in the Senate 11 Republicans supported the move but fell short of the 60 votes needed.
The two votes represented a major break in the solid GOP backing Trump has enjoyed in his first two years as president and sent a strong signal that congressional Republicans are willing to split with the White House on national security matters.
In its brief statement, Treasury said that Rusal and the other two companies, En+ Group and EuroSiobEnergo had severed Derapaska's control.
"This action ensures that the majority of
directors on the En+ and Rusal boards will be independent directors ... who
have no business, professional or family ties to Deripaska," Treasury
said.
The statement also said that the companies had
agreed to "unprecedented transparency for Treasury into their operations
by undertaking extensive, ongoing auditing, certification and reporting
requirements."
---- The sanctions against Rusal had raised worries in
global markets about the loss of aluminum production from the company, the
world's second largest producer of aluminum.
Businesses struggle as cracks appear in China's economy
Date created : 27/01/2019 -
05:12
Cracks are opening in China's mighty economy:
investors are backing away from deals, factories are moving abroad and
companies are shedding jobs.
The world's second-largest economy is losing steam,
hitting its slowest growth in almost three decades last year, and flagging
further in recent months.
While gross domestic product grew at 6.6 percent in
2018 -- a rate that would be the envy of most nations -- China's efforts to cut
its debt mountain have weighed on the economy.
Private businesses in particular face new hurdles
as costs rise and financing becomes harder to come by, while the trade war with
the United States has not helped.
Here is a look at some of the struggles faced by
Chinese companies and people:
- Game over for gamers -
Feeding China's addiction to video games seemed an
easy bet for Beijing Yixin Technology, a tech startup behind the mobile game
Farm Take Home.
The game allows players to harvest wheat, raise
chickens and plant apple trees -- a bucolic refuge from the pressures of urban
China.
But in real life, the tech firm has struggled to
find investors.
"In December our company's funding ran out, we
had an investment lined up, but the money never came through," said
chairman Cui Yi.
"This month I arranged another investor, then
he backed out too. I think we can't hold out."
His company is not alone.
Venture capital funding dried up at the end of last
year. Total investment in the fourth quarter fell 13 percent from a year
earlier, according to data from Preqin market research.
----- Trade war -
Other companies are facing the fallout from the
trade war with the United States.
More than a handful of exporters have sought to get
around US tariffs by building factories outside China, according to a review of
public stock filings.
Others are sending workers home early for Chinese
New Year or cutting overtime.
Last month China's exports fell.
"It has hit our profits," Harry Shih,
manager of Runfine Bearings in eastern Zhejiang province, said of the trade
war.
More
US, China resume high-stakes poker in trade talks
Date created :
27/01/2019 - 02:43
With a month left in their truce, senior US and
Chinese officials will meet in Washington this week, hoping to move toward a
bargain to end their unprecedented trade war.
Beijing's trade envoy, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He,
will lead a 30-person delegation at the invitation
of US Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is heading up
the American effort.
At a meeting in Argentina last month, US President
Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to bury the hatchet
provisionally -- with Trump delaying a sharp increase on US duties for $200
billion in Chinese goods until March 1.
Washington has made its demands clear: China must
agree to far-reaching "structural" reforms in its trade practices,
curbing massive state intervention in markets and the alleged theft of American
technological know-how, including through hacking and the forced transfer of
intellectual property.
Trump also wants to cut the soaring US trade
deficit with China, which in 2017 hit a record $375 billion, not including
trade in services.
Since last year, the world's two largest economies
have exchanged tit-for-tat tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade,
with the largest amount, more than $250 billion, imposed by Washington.
The American president's protectionist moves have
begun to weigh on the Chinese economy, which last year posted its slowest
economic growth in nearly three decades, causing Trump to claim he has the
upper hand in the talks.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday
Washington and Beijing remained "miles and miles" from the finish
line in their talks, cautioning against putting too much hope for a final
resolution at this week's talks.
"I think next week's negotiations will be
critical in determining whether the Chinese are willing to talk about any of
the structural issues the United States is concerned about," Edward Alden,
a trade expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP.
- 'Made in China 2025' -
Early this month, Chinese officials signaled they
were open to reducing the trade imbalance but there has been scant sign of
movement on Washington's tougher demands.
A deal could be especially hard to reach should
Beijing prove unwilling to cede any ground on the state subsidies at the heart
of Xi's vision for industrial pre-eminence.
"It will be very difficult to reach an
agreement unless the Chinese are willing to address some of those issues,"
said Alden.
The Chinese are likely to reject any US demand seen
as an obstacle to the "Made in China 2025" strategic plan, according
to Alden.
More
Finally, Reuters takes a look at the week ahead.
Take Five: Time for a break? World markets themes for the week ahead
January 25, 2019 / 1:55 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Following are five big themes
likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the
Reuters stories related to them.
AND SO BEGINS THE PAUSE
The U.S. Federal Reserve convenes its first monetary policy meeting of 2019 after hiking rates for a fifth time in as many quarters in December. But while it has forecast two more hikes for 2019, the darkening global economic outlook, convulsing stock markets and a record-long government shutdown are clouding the policy picture.Now, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is preaching “patience” with regard to future rate increases, and he’s been joined by two other governors and all 12 Fed regional bank presidents.
---- OH CHINA, WHERE ART THOU?
Alarm bells from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are still ringing in investors’ ears, after the Fund cut global growth forecasts, warning in particular that failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilise the world economy. So markets will focus on Chinese manufacturing data due on Thursday and Friday to glean how the world’s number two economy is faring.---- PLAN B FOR BREXIT
Another week, another vote. On Jan 29, Britain’s parliament will debate Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed next Brexit steps as well as alternative plans put forward by lawmakers, including some that seek to delay Britain’s March 29 exit from the EU.---- TORRID TECH TIMES?
Results from Apple on Tuesday and Microsoft on Wednesday will be high on the agenda as global tech struggles to recover from a tumultuous end of 2018 that saw tumbling shares and sharp downgrades to earnings expectations.The updates from the two U.S. giants follows a string of dour numbers from chipmakers across the globe, signalling more gloom in coming months for the once-high-flying sector.
More
The wise man does at once what the fool does
finally.
Niccolo Machiavelli
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over banksters and politicians.
In most of Europe, the Euro “Bin Laden” banknote comes to an end.
Allegedly the favourite of tax dodgers, criminals and terrorists, in Europe
they’ll just have to go back to swapping stolen old masters and other art
treasures, I suppose. Better get a whole load more CCTV cameras for Italy’s
churches.
Mixed emotions in Germany as 500-euro note bows out
Date created :
27/01/2019 - 04:48
As the ECB takes the final step in phasing out the
500-euro note, few are expected to mourn a bill favoured by criminals but
rarely seen in daily life.
Except perhaps in cash-loving Germany.
Only the German and Austrian central banks are
clinging on a while longer, until April 26, to "ensure a smooth
transition", the European Central Bank said in a statement.
Medical technician Rolf, from the German town of
Marburg, said he found the demise of the single currency's highest-denomination
note "hard to accept".
Standing a stone's throw from Frankfurt's
blue-and-yellow euro sculpture after a meeting in the city, the 61-year-old
said he had made a point of paying for his car in 500s.
"I prefer using cash for large payments, it
doesn't mean I'm involved in anything dodgy," Rolf said, declining to give
his last name.
The ECB decision to end the note's issuance will
lead to fewer and fewer circulating as commercial banks gradually return them
to their countries' central banks, where they will be replaced by
lower-denomination bills.
But anyone hoarding 500s under their mattress
needn't worry, as all existing bills remain legal tender.
"They can continue to be used to spend or to
save, and they will always retain their value," said ECB spokeswoman Eva
Taylor.
The 500-euro bill accounted for just 2.3 percent of
all euro notes in circulation last month.
- The 'Bin Laden' -
The banknote's death warrant was signed in 2016
when the ECB formally ended its production over concerns it could
"facilitate illegal activities" after research linked its use to
money laundering, tax evasion and terrorism financing.
Sometimes dubbed the "Bin Laden", the
note has proved a compact way to transport illicit money.
A million euros in 500-euro notes weighs just 2.2
kilogrammes (4.8 pounds), fitting easily into a laptop bag.
The same sum in $100 bills, the US currency's
highest denomination, would weigh almost six times as much and require a much
larger case.
While the plan to slowly kill off the 500 made few
waves abroad, it sparked an emotional debate in Germany where many feared it
was a prelude to abolishing cash altogether.
Among the fiercest opponents was Jens Weidmann,
chief of Germany's powerful Bundesbank central bank, who said scrapping the
note would do little to combat crime but could "damage trust" in the
single currency.
Critics also said the move would make it more
difficult and expensive for banks to physically store large amounts of cash in
order to bypass negative interest rates.
The ECB's deposit rate currently stands at minus
0.4 percent, meaning banks pay to park excess funds with the Frankfurt
institution.
More
One who deceives will always find those who allow
themselves to be deceived.
Niccolo Machiavelli
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
'GO dough' makes graphene easy to shape and mold
New form of graphene oxide is fun to play with -- and solves manufacturing challenges
Date: January 25, 2019
Source: Northwestern University
Summary: A team has turned graphene oxide into a soft,
moldable and kneadable play dough that can be shaped and reshaped into
free-standing, three-dimensional structures.
Called "GO dough," the product might be
fun to play with it, but it's more than a toy. The malleable material solves
several long-standing -- and sometimes explosive -- problems in the graphene
manufacturing industry.
"Currently graphene oxide is stored as dry
solids or powders, which are prone to combustion," said Jiaxing Huang, who
led the study. "Or they have to be turned into dilute dispersions, which
multiply the material's mass by hundreds or thousands."
Huang recounted his most recent shipment of 5
kilograms of graphene oxide, which was dispersed in 500 liters of liquid.
"It had to be delivered in a truck," he said. "The same amount
of graphene oxide in dough form would weigh about 10 kilograms, and I could
carry it myself."
The research was published today (Jan. 24) in the
journal Nature Communications. Huang is a professor of materials science
and engineering in Northwestern's McCormick School of Engineering.
Graphene oxide, which is a product of graphite
oxidation, is often used to make graphene, a single-atom-layer thick sheet of
carbon that is remarkably strong, lightweight and has potential for
applications in electronics and energy storage.
Just add water
Huang's team made GO dough by adding an ultra-high
concentration of graphene oxide to water. If the team had used binding
additives, they would have had to further process the material to remove these
additives in order to return graphene oxide to its pure form.
"Adding binders such as plastics could turn
anything into a dough state," Huang said. "But these additives often
significantly alter the material's properties."
After being shaped into structures, the dough can
be converted into dense solids that are electrically conductive, chemically
stable and mechanically hard. Or, more water can be added to the dough to
transform it into a high-quality GO dispersion on demand. The dough can also be
processed further to make bulk graphene oxide and graphene materials of
different forms with tunable microstructures. Huang hopes that GO dough's ease
of use could help graphene meet its much-anticipated potential as a super
material.
"My dream is to turn
graphene-based sheets into a widely accessible, readily usable engineering
material, just like plastic, glass and steel," Huang said. "I hope GO
dough can help inspire new uses of graphene-based materials, just like how play
dough can inspire young children's imagination and creativity."
The promise given was a necessity of the past: the
word broken is a necessity of the present.
Niccolo Machiavelli
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.
DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ: 6,635 +152 Down.
SP500: 2,507
+90 Down.
Normally this would
suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be
judged by the performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary
activating the Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a
politicised PPT cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action
here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.
Hopefully a USA –
China trade deal reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs,
is a market killer.
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