Monday, 28 January 2019

USA v China Round 6? An Interesting Week.


Baltic Dry Index 905 -34       Brent Crude    61.00

Trump 25 percent tariffs 32 days away.  Brexit 61 days away.

As usual the Liberals offer a mixture of sound and original ideas. Unfortunately none of the sound ideas is original and none of the original ideas is sound.

Prime Minister Harold MacMillan

An interesting week ahead. The US Government reopens. China v USA trade talks resume in Washington.  The Federal Reserve holds its first meeting of 2019, though it’s expected to remain firmly in President Trump’s camp and leave its key interest rate unchanged. Apple and Microsoft report results during the week. Brexit gets another round of voting in the UK Parliament.  The EU – Japan trade treaty comes into effect on February 1st. The USA seems to be lining up allies in South America to invade Venezuela.

Below stocks in Asia cautiously probe higher. 

Stocks advance after U.S. government reopens for now

January 28, 2019 / 12:41 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks advanced on Monday as Wall Street rallied after a deal was announced to reopen the U.S. government following a prolonged shutdown that had taken a toll on investor sentiment.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.4 percent.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.5 percent.

South Korea’s KOSPI edged up 0.1 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend and eased 0.3 percent. Australian financial markets were shut for their ‘Australia Day’ holiday.Facing mounting pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on Friday to temporarily end a 35-day-old partial U.S. government shutdown without getting the $5.7 billion he had demanded from Congress for a border wall.

In response Wall Street rallied broadly on Friday as investors were relieved to see an end to one of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.

---- “The rise in the broader stock markets looks to keep going. The U.S. government reopening is definitely a plus for market sentiment,” said Soichiro Monji, senior economist at Daiwa SB Investments.

“There are still potential risk factors, such as the U.S.-China trade row and Brexit,” he said.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit the United States on Jan. 30-31 for the next round of trade negotiations with Washington.
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White House lifts sanctions on firms linked to Putin ally

Date created :
The Treasury Department on Sunday announced it was lifting sanctions on three companies connected to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

The move comes despite an effort in Congress to block the action with many lawmakers concerned that the Trump administration is not being tough enough on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his allies.

Treasury said it was removing Russian aluminum giant Rusal and two other companies from its sanctions list on the grounds that the companies have reduced Derapaska's direct and indirect shareholding stake in the three companies.

Congress voted earlier this month to try to block the administration's efforts to remove the sanctions. In the House, 136 Republicans joined Democrats to disapprove the deal while in the Senate 11 Republicans supported the move but fell short of the 60 votes needed.

The two votes represented a major break in the solid GOP backing Trump has enjoyed in his first two years as president and sent a strong signal that congressional Republicans are willing to split with the White House on national security matters.

In its brief statement, Treasury said that Rusal and the other two companies, En+ Group and EuroSiobEnergo had severed Derapaska's control.

"This action ensures that the majority of directors on the En+ and Rusal boards will be independent directors ... who have no business, professional or family ties to Deripaska," Treasury said.

The statement also said that the companies had agreed to "unprecedented transparency for Treasury into their operations by undertaking extensive, ongoing auditing, certification and reporting requirements."

---- The sanctions against Rusal had raised worries in global markets about the loss of aluminum production from the company, the world's second largest producer of aluminum.

Businesses struggle as cracks appear in China's economy

Date created : 27/01/2019 - 05:12
Cracks are opening in China's mighty economy: investors are backing away from deals, factories are moving abroad and companies are shedding jobs.

The world's second-largest economy is losing steam, hitting its slowest growth in almost three decades last year, and flagging further in recent months.

While gross domestic product grew at 6.6 percent in 2018 -- a rate that would be the envy of most nations -- China's efforts to cut its debt mountain have weighed on the economy.

Private businesses in particular face new hurdles as costs rise and financing becomes harder to come by, while the trade war with the United States has not helped.

Here is a look at some of the struggles faced by Chinese companies and people:

- Game over for gamers -

Feeding China's addiction to video games seemed an easy bet for Beijing Yixin Technology, a tech startup behind the mobile game Farm Take Home.

The game allows players to harvest wheat, raise chickens and plant apple trees -- a bucolic refuge from the pressures of urban China.

But in real life, the tech firm has struggled to find investors.

"In December our company's funding ran out, we had an investment lined up, but the money never came through," said chairman Cui Yi.

"This month I arranged another investor, then he backed out too. I think we can't hold out."

His company is not alone.

Venture capital funding dried up at the end of last year. Total investment in the fourth quarter fell 13 percent from a year earlier, according to data from Preqin market research.

----- Trade war -

Other companies are facing the fallout from the trade war with the United States.

More than a handful of exporters have sought to get around US tariffs by building factories outside China, according to a review of public stock filings.

Others are sending workers home early for Chinese New Year or cutting overtime.

Last month China's exports fell.

"It has hit our profits," Harry Shih, manager of Runfine Bearings in eastern Zhejiang province, said of the trade war.
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US, China resume high-stakes poker in trade talks

Date created : 27/01/2019 - 02:43
With a month left in their truce, senior US and Chinese officials will meet in Washington this week, hoping to move toward a bargain to end their unprecedented trade war.

Beijing's trade envoy, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, will lead a 30-person delegation at the invitation 
of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is heading up the American effort.

At a meeting in Argentina last month, US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to bury the hatchet provisionally -- with Trump delaying a sharp increase on US duties for $200 billion in Chinese goods until March 1.

Washington has made its demands clear: China must agree to far-reaching "structural" reforms in its trade practices, curbing massive state intervention in markets and the alleged theft of American technological know-how, including through hacking and the forced transfer of intellectual property.

Trump also wants to cut the soaring US trade deficit with China, which in 2017 hit a record $375 billion, not including trade in services.

Since last year, the world's two largest economies have exchanged tit-for-tat tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade, with the largest amount, more than $250 billion, imposed by Washington.

The American president's protectionist moves have begun to weigh on the Chinese economy, which last year posted its slowest economic growth in nearly three decades, causing Trump to claim he has the upper hand in the talks.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday Washington and Beijing remained "miles and miles" from the finish line in their talks, cautioning against putting too much hope for a final resolution at this week's talks.

"I think next week's negotiations will be critical in determining whether the Chinese are willing to talk about any of the structural issues the United States is concerned about," Edward Alden, a trade expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP.

- 'Made in China 2025' -

Early this month, Chinese officials signaled they were open to reducing the trade imbalance but there has been scant sign of movement on Washington's tougher demands.

A deal could be especially hard to reach should Beijing prove unwilling to cede any ground on the state subsidies at the heart of Xi's vision for industrial pre-eminence.

"It will be very difficult to reach an agreement unless the Chinese are willing to address some of those issues," said Alden.

The Chinese are likely to reject any US demand seen as an obstacle to the "Made in China 2025" strategic plan, according to Alden.
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Finally, Reuters takes a look at the week ahead.

Take Five: Time for a break? World markets themes for the week ahead

January 25, 2019 / 1:55 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

AND SO BEGINS THE PAUSE

The U.S. Federal Reserve convenes its first monetary policy meeting of 2019 after hiking rates for a fifth time in as many quarters in December. But while it has forecast two more hikes for 2019, the darkening global economic outlook, convulsing stock markets and a record-long government shutdown are clouding the policy picture.

Now, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is preaching “patience” with regard to future rate increases, and he’s been joined by two other governors and all 12 Fed regional bank presidents.

---- OH CHINA, WHERE ART THOU?

Alarm bells from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are still ringing in investors’ ears, after the Fund cut global growth forecasts, warning in particular that failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilise the world economy. So markets will focus on Chinese manufacturing data due on Thursday and Friday to glean how the world’s number two economy is faring.

---- PLAN B FOR BREXIT

Another week, another vote. On Jan 29, Britain’s parliament will debate Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed next Brexit steps as well as alternative plans put forward by lawmakers, including some that seek to delay Britain’s March 29 exit from the EU.

---- TORRID TECH TIMES?

Results from Apple on Tuesday and Microsoft on Wednesday will be high on the agenda as global tech struggles to recover from a tumultuous end of 2018 that saw tumbling shares and sharp downgrades to earnings expectations.

The updates from the two U.S. giants follows a string of dour numbers from chipmakers across the globe, signalling more gloom in coming months for the once-high-flying sector.
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The wise man does at once what the fool does finally.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over banksters and politicians.

In most of Europe, the Euro “Bin Laden” banknote comes to an end. Allegedly the favourite of tax dodgers, criminals and terrorists, in Europe they’ll just have to go back to swapping stolen old masters and other art treasures, I suppose. Better get a whole load more CCTV cameras for Italy’s churches.

Mixed emotions in Germany as 500-euro note bows out

Date created : 27/01/2019 - 04:48
As the ECB takes the final step in phasing out the 500-euro note, few are expected to mourn a bill favoured by criminals but rarely seen in daily life.

Except perhaps in cash-loving Germany.

Only the German and Austrian central banks are clinging on a while longer, until April 26, to "ensure a smooth transition", the European Central Bank said in a statement.

Medical technician Rolf, from the German town of Marburg, said he found the demise of the single currency's highest-denomination note "hard to accept".

Standing a stone's throw from Frankfurt's blue-and-yellow euro sculpture after a meeting in the city, the 61-year-old said he had made a point of paying for his car in 500s.

"I prefer using cash for large payments, it doesn't mean I'm involved in anything dodgy," Rolf said, declining to give his last name.

The ECB decision to end the note's issuance will lead to fewer and fewer circulating as commercial banks gradually return them to their countries' central banks, where they will be replaced by lower-denomination bills.

But anyone hoarding 500s under their mattress needn't worry, as all existing bills remain legal tender.
"They can continue to be used to spend or to save, and they will always retain their value," said ECB spokeswoman Eva Taylor.

The 500-euro bill accounted for just 2.3 percent of all euro notes in circulation last month.

- The 'Bin Laden' -

The banknote's death warrant was signed in 2016 when the ECB formally ended its production over concerns it could "facilitate illegal activities" after research linked its use to money laundering, tax evasion and terrorism financing.

Sometimes dubbed the "Bin Laden", the note has proved a compact way to transport illicit money.
A million euros in 500-euro notes weighs just 2.2 kilogrammes (4.8 pounds), fitting easily into a laptop bag.

The same sum in $100 bills, the US currency's highest denomination, would weigh almost six times as much and require a much larger case.

While the plan to slowly kill off the 500 made few waves abroad, it sparked an emotional debate in Germany where many feared it was a prelude to abolishing cash altogether.

Among the fiercest opponents was Jens Weidmann, chief of Germany's powerful Bundesbank central bank, who said scrapping the note would do little to combat crime but could "damage trust" in the single currency.

Critics also said the move would make it more difficult and expensive for banks to physically store large amounts of cash in order to bypass negative interest rates.

The ECB's deposit rate currently stands at minus 0.4 percent, meaning banks pay to park excess funds with the Frankfurt institution.
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One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived.

Niccolo Machiavelli

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

'GO dough' makes graphene easy to shape and mold

New form of graphene oxide is fun to play with -- and solves manufacturing challenges

Date: January 25, 2019

Source: Northwestern University

Summary: A team has turned graphene oxide into a soft, moldable and kneadable play dough that can be shaped and reshaped into free-standing, three-dimensional structures.

Called "GO dough," the product might be fun to play with it, but it's more than a toy. The malleable material solves several long-standing -- and sometimes explosive -- problems in the graphene manufacturing industry.

"Currently graphene oxide is stored as dry solids or powders, which are prone to combustion," said Jiaxing Huang, who led the study. "Or they have to be turned into dilute dispersions, which multiply the material's mass by hundreds or thousands."

Huang recounted his most recent shipment of 5 kilograms of graphene oxide, which was dispersed in 500 liters of liquid. "It had to be delivered in a truck," he said. "The same amount of graphene oxide in dough form would weigh about 10 kilograms, and I could carry it myself."

The research was published today (Jan. 24) in the journal Nature Communications. Huang is a professor of materials science and engineering in Northwestern's McCormick School of Engineering.

Graphene oxide, which is a product of graphite oxidation, is often used to make graphene, a single-atom-layer thick sheet of carbon that is remarkably strong, lightweight and has potential for applications in electronics and energy storage.

Just add water

Huang's team made GO dough by adding an ultra-high concentration of graphene oxide to water. If the team had used binding additives, they would have had to further process the material to remove these additives in order to return graphene oxide to its pure form.

"Adding binders such as plastics could turn anything into a dough state," Huang said. "But these additives often significantly alter the material's properties."

After being shaped into structures, the dough can be converted into dense solids that are electrically conductive, chemically stable and mechanically hard. Or, more water can be added to the dough to transform it into a high-quality GO dispersion on demand. The dough can also be processed further to make bulk graphene oxide and graphene materials of different forms with tunable microstructures. Huang hopes that GO dough's ease of use could help graphene meet its much-anticipated potential as a super material.

"My dream is to turn graphene-based sheets into a widely accessible, readily usable engineering material, just like plastic, glass and steel," Huang said. "I hope GO dough can help inspire new uses of graphene-based materials, just like how play dough can inspire young children's imagination and creativity."

The promise given was a necessity of the past: the word broken is a necessity of the present.

Niccolo Machiavelli

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.

DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ: 6,635 +152 Down. SP500: 2,507 +90 Down. 
Normally this would suggest more correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary activating the Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a politicised PPT cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action here is fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.
Hopefully a USA – China trade deal reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs, is a market killer.

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