Baltic Dry Index. 1147 -22 Brent Crude 59.80
EUSSR: In return for
these few glass beads and this mirror, you will leave the island of Great
Britain forever, but pay us 39 billion for the privilege and allow us to hunt
and fish wherever we want. Desperate May: where do I sign?
It is UK Prime
Minster May’s mayday. Her dithering government of incompetents is about to go
down to a long overdue defeat. Outside of London and Brussels no one seems
either to notice or care, which is as it should be. More on Mayday later.
Asian markets have
largely shrugged off Mayday and yesterday’s bad news out of China. Largely responding to hopium and China’s
promise to ramp up its economy. I think they are making a big mistake. Any
rallies from here are exit rallies. Europe and China are on the cusp of a new
recession. In America the Democrats are already declaring war on President
Trump. Snowstorms and a government shutdown will likely be a massive drag on
the US economy, although with no one working on the numbers we might not know
for a long time.
Australia and South
America are experiencing the new El Nino. Canada’s trying to figure out how to
get out of its China kidnap dilemma. The Baltic Dry Index is sinking again.
Below, hopium rules
for now.
Freedom
is the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.
George Orwell.
Asian markets rise, shaking off China slowdown concerns
Asian markets bounced back from slight early losses on Tuesday after senior economic officials said Beijing will cut taxes and keep monetary policy flexible to help weather China’s slowdown.Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, +0.89% , reopening after a market holiday, added 0.8%. The Kospi SEU, +1.52% in South Korea jumped 1.3%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, +1.72% rebounded 1.7% after closing 1.4% lower on Monday. The Shanghai Composite index SHCOMP, +1.07% was up 0.9% and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, +0.71% rose 0.5%. Shares rose in Taiwan Y9999, +1.01% , Singapore STI, +1.46% and Indonesia JAKIDX, -0.40% .
---- On Monday, China reported that its exports to the U.S. fell 3.5% from a year earlier in December to $40.3 billion, although its overall trade surplus with the United States surged last year. Markets initially slipped on worries that tariffs were putting a drag on the world’s second largest economy.
But buying enthusiasm recovered on hopes that Chinese negotiators will be more keen to resolve a trade dispute with the U.S. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set to lead negotiators at talks in Washington later this month.
“Early movers had mostly headed into green, paring back losses from
Monday’s worry over China’s trade performance,” Jingyi Pan of IG said in a
market commentary. “To some extent, the market is gradually shrugging this off
as a one-off incident after front loading previously. The impetus this provides
for a U.S.-China resolution had also likely inspired the gains,” she added.
More
China to ramp up efforts to support economy
By MarketWatch Published: Jan 15, 2019 1:00 a.m. ET
Beijing intends to improve credit availability for smaller companies,
accelerate infrastructure investment and cut taxes, said officials at a
briefing Tuesday.
The central bank is targeting a pace of growth for the broader money
supply and total social financing that is similar to that of nominal gross
domestic product, said Zhu Hexin, a deputy governor of the People's Bank of
China.
Last year China expanded the availability of credit in an effort to halt
the economic slowdown, with the amount of new yuan loans hitting 16.17 trillion
yuan ($2.39 trillion), Mr. Zhu said. That represents a year-over-year increase
of nearly 20%.
"Next we are going to resolve the problem of commercial banks that
dare not or are reluctant to lend to small firms," he said.
Recent monetary-policy-easing measures, including reductions in banks'
reserve requirement ratios, will help encourage banks to lend more to the
private sector, he said.
---- Lian Weiliang, a deputy head of China's top economic planning agency, said officials are looking at accelerating large infrastructure projects in the central government's budget in the first quarter so most them can start earlier in the year. However, the government won't resort to strong stimulus, he said.
The government's efforts to ramp up investment in rail and other public
projects have reignited concerns over mounting debt levels in the economy.
Officials have repeatedly said they wouldn't return to earlier methods of
stimulating growth by building up debt.
The Finance Ministry will ask local governments to speed up bond
issuance to facilitate the construction of public projects, said Xu Hongcai, an
assistant finance minister.
More
In El Nino news, Australia starts to melt. Still an
overnight low of 91 Fahrenheit makes for an expensive aircon and cold beer bill.
Australian authorities warn about heat as temperature soars
January 15, 2019 / 5:13 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australians have been
warned to avoid exerting themselves outdoors and to drink lots of water as
record temperatures in parts of the country look set to linger, and even
increase, over coming days.
Parts of New South Wales, Australia’s most
populated state, and an area of Western Australia, saw record high minimum
temperatures of 33 Celsius (91 Fahrenheit) overnight.
The maximum is expected to soar to more than 45C (113F) on Wednesday in
parts of New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria, the Bureau of
Meteorology said.
“Avoid physical activity, stay well hydrated - it’s vital at this time,”
said Richard Broome, director of environmental health for the New South Wales
state government.
For the four-fifths of Australia’s 25 million people who live on the
coast, the summer typically means lazing on the beach and watching cricket.
But the unusually high temperatures add to a sense of exhaustion for a
farm economy already reeling from a year of drought.
“The weather is not good news for summer grain crops such as sorghum,”
said Phin Ziebell, agribusiness economist, National Australia Bank.
“Many east coast farmers are still reeling from the winter wheat crops,
which suffered from recent drought.”
Australia, the world’s fourth largest wheat exporter, saw production of
the grain fall to a 10-year low this year when dry weather wilted crops.
With unusually dry pasture, the danger of bush fires looms.
More
Finally, it’s vote
time this evening on Prime Minister May’s ludicrous surrender Brexit “agreement”
with Brussels. No one expects GB’s House
of Clowns to pass it, so below Reuters covers what comes next. Simple Brexit,
it seems to me, with everyone getting on with real life. Businesses on both
sides of the Channel will make decisions on what seems to make best sense for
them.
A weaker Sterling
will eventually boost exports, tourism, and inward investment. UK universities
will gain a competitive advantage for foreign students. Firms will get leaner
and more efficient. Many Brits will rediscover holidaying in Britain. And no
Donald Tusk, western civilisation will not fall. The rest of the world will
yawn and tell Britain and Europe to get on with their lives.
“A good politician is
quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.”
H. L. Mencken.
Explainer - What happens if May loses vote on her Brexit deal?
January 14, 2019 / 6:27 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister
Theresa May is facing likely defeat in parliament on Tuesday when she asks
members of Parliament (MPs) to approve her Brexit deal - a decision that would
trigger huge uncertainty about the future of Britain’s exit from the European
Union.
May has warned that rejecting her deal opens up the possibility of Brexit being stopped, or that Britain leaves disruptively without a deal. She has promised to respond quickly to any defeat.
So what could happen next if she loses?
BACK TO PARLIAMENT
May must submit a new plan for Britain’s next steps by the end of Jan. 21. It is not clear what May’s ‘Plan B’ is, but some local media have reported she would ask parliament to vote again on the deal, perhaps after seeking another set of reassurances from the EU.Some MPs have floated the idea that parliament could, in a temporary break from convention in Britain, take control of the process away from the government and hand it to a committee of senior MPs from across the political spectrum.
It is not clear that this plan is technically possible, or whether it has enough support to succeed. The government said any attempt to prevent it from meeting its legal obligation to deliver an orderly EU exit would be extremely concerning.
RESIGN
May could resign as leader of the Conservative Party, triggering an internal contest to replace her without a general election.OUSTED
May defeated an attempt to oust her as leader of the Conservative Party in December, winning a confidence vote by 200 votes to 117. The result means her position as leader of the party cannot be challenged for 12 months.VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE
The opposition Labour Party has said it will call a vote of no confidence in the government if May’s deal is rejected, but has not specified exactly when.If a majority of MPs vote against May’s government, Labour would have 14 days to prove, by a vote, that it could command a majority and form its own government. That would allow Labour to take control of the country without an election..
More
Here richly, with
ridiculous display,
The Politician's corpse was laid away.
While all of his acquaintance sneered and slanged
I wept: for I had longed to see him hanged.
The Politician's corpse was laid away.
While all of his acquaintance sneered and slanged
I wept: for I had longed to see him hanged.
Hilaire Belloc, "Epitaph on the
politician."
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over
banksters and politicians.
Today, the one that didn’t get away. Still want
that webcam doorbell? So do certain unfriendly hackers.
British hacker jailed over Liberia hacking operation
Sophisticated hacking operation led to the internet crashing in the west African nation
January 11, 2019
A British hacker who crashed the internet in Liberia during an
industrial espionage operation has been jailed.
Daniel Kaye, 30, was paid by a rival firm up to $10,000 a month to
sabotage Liberian telecoms company Lonestar MTN in October 2015.
He used a string of connected computers to attack the network from
September 2016 resulting in such huge traffic that it crashed the nation’s
internet leading to losses of tens of millions of dollars.
He had identified a security flaw in Chinese-made webcams and took over
the devices without the owners knowing what he was doing.
He turned them into a cyber army to attack his target and then sought to
hijack part of the German network Deutsche Telekom to bolster his firepower.
Kaye, who was living in Cyprus at the time of the attack, was arrested
when he returned to the UK the following year. Police found $10,000 in his
suitcase in $100 bills.
He was subsequently extradited to Germany where he admitted attacks on
Deutsche Telekom that affected one million customers in November 2016, but
escaped jail.
He was returned to the UK where he admitted his role in the Liberian
operation and was jailed for 32 months.
Mike Hulett, from Britain’s national cybercrime unit, said: “Daniel Kaye
was operating as a highly skilled and capable hacker-for-hire.
“His activities inflicted substantial damage on numerous businesses in
countries around the world, demonstrating the borderless nature of cybercrime.”
When smart homes aren't smart enough: why your home tech could be easily hacked
Could devices which claim to make our lives easier also have the potential to make them much more difficult?
January 9, 2019
It’s an unsettling experience to have your home invaded by some kind of technological poltergeist. Unusual messages spontaneously emerging from your printer. Disembodied voices coming through your security camera. Thermostats going haywire, odd videos interrupting your evening’s television viewing and doors unlocking without warning. While these occurrences are still relatively uncommon, last year saw a marked increase in hackers targeting internet-connected devices in people’s homes: from light bulbs to plant waterers, music players to central-heating systems. The consumer appeal of this kind of gadget is obvious: by hooking them up to your network, you can automate them and control them remotely – but with that convenience comes vulnerability.
In recent months, a number of well-publicised incidents have raised awareness of the problem. In November, a group of hackers in Calgary, Canada, accessed a security camera belonging to a man living 2,500 kilometres away in Arizona and spoke to him through the device to warn him that his home was insecure. One of his personal passwords had leaked on the internet, and he had used the same one for his camera. Last week, someone styling themselves as “TheHackerGiraffe” hijacked tens of thousands of printers and Chromecast devices to display messages promoting the videos of Swedish YouTuber PewDiePie.
While these incidents seem to be mischievous rather than malicious, they
highlight a more sinister problem, according to John Shier at security software
firm Sophos. “Insecure devices can become a gateway into the rest of your
network,” he says. “This could dramatically impact your privacy if documents
are stolen or your traffic is monitored. But the more likely scenario is one
we’ve seen time and time again, where devices are hijacked to become part of a
botnet – perhaps a hundred thousand strong – which is then used to attack
somebody else.”
Craig Young, a researcher at cybersecurity firm Tripwire, explains that
compromised devices can also present a direct risk to personal safety. “If a
Chromecast device is improperly exposed to the internet,” he says, “someone
could find out its physical location. Then, if they see that no one has watched
TV for 24 hours, they might guess that you’re away from home.” With a predicted
20 billion so-called “Internet of Things” (IoT) devices online by 2020, the
potential for this kind of crime is growing by the day. “We need to start
thinking in terms of herd immunity,” Shier says.
Morehttps://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/comment/when-smart-homes-aren-t-smart-enough-why-your-home-tech-could-be-easily-hacked-1.810904
We hold these
truths to be self evident: that all men are created equal; that they are
endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights; that among these are
life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness outside of the EUSSR.”
With grateful
thanks to the writers of the US Declaration of Independence.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Ion age: why the future will be battery powered
The variable nature of wind and solar power means storing energy is a huge part of the fight to mitigate climate change
by Adam Vaughan
and Samuel Gibbs Mon 14 Jan
2019 07.00 GMT Last modified on Mon 14 Jan 2019 07.51 GMT
In a world increasingly anxious about climate change, the surge in the generation of renewable energy over the past 20 years offers a sliver of hope. But the variable nature of wind and solar power means that storing energy until consumers need it has become the next big challenge. And so, large-scale battery installations are springing up across electricity grids around the world, to make them more flexible. In 2017, more than 1GW of energy storage capacity was added around the world – a record, yes, but still a drop in the ocean of global energy demand.
How do batteries like this work?
Of course, we are not talking about a few AAA batteries here. And yet, all batteries broadly work in a similar manner.---Electrical energy is converted to chemical energy when you charge a battery, and then the process is reversed when you draw power from it.
There are three main constituents of most batteries: two electrodes and some form of chemical medium called the electrolyte, which can be a liquid, gel or solid. To generate electricity, a chemical reaction takes place that sees electrons move from the negative electrode, called the anode, to the positive electrode, called the cathode.
When you charge the battery, the process is reversed, sending electrons back to the anode.
So how many of these big batteries are there?
There is around 500MW of large-scale battery capacity installed around the UK, a figure that is expected to double within three years, according to the analysts Aurora Energy Research. Almost all capacity uses lithium-ion.Globally installed capacity is expected to top 50GW by 2020 – and surge to almost 1,000GW by 2040, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. That would equate to about 7% of the world’s energy capacity.
How do batteries fit in to the renewables revolution?
In the UK, battery installations are primarily being deployed to supply services to National Grid. Such ancillary services are increasingly important to help match supply and demand as a growing amount of intermittent wind and solar power comes online.There are also the beginnings of “hybrid” renewable energy power plants, where batteries are installed alongside solar farms and windfarms. This is particularly important for the economics of solar farms, which can push down power prices around midday by peaking at the same time. Instead of exporting immediately, hybrid farms can store power to sell later at higher prices.
In other parts of the world, such as South Australia, batteries are being used to make the grid more resilient and avoid blackouts. Crucially, batteries are not yet suitable and do not make economic sense for interseasonal storage – that is, storing up solar power in summer to release in winter.
More
Lloyd Blankfein, “Mr. Goldman Sacks,” CEO of Goldman Sachs
unintentionally backs Brexit in a US speech to graduates, mid 2016.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.
DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ:
6,635 +152 Down. SP500: 2,507 +90 Down.
Normally this would suggest more
correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary activating the
Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a politicised PPT
cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action here is fully paid
up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.
Hopefully a USA – China trade deal
reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs, is a market killer.
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