Baltic Dry Index. 1092 -20 Brent Crude 62.07
Trump 25 percent
tariffs 38 days away. Brexit 67 days
away.
People
of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but
the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some
contrivance to raise prices…. But though the law cannot hinder people of the
same trade from sometimes assembling together, it ought to do nothing to
facilitate such assemblies, much less to render them necessary.
Adam
Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776.
As the Billionaires
and mere millionaires assemble yet again in Davos Switzerland to flaunt their
wealth and gigantic egos, the local Yokels seem to be suggesting this World
Economic Forum has passed its sell-by date, and that if it wants to continue it
should greatly reform, or preferably ship out to some other venue. Perhaps
Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago and Palm Beach Island might be just the place. Water
skiing replacing skiing perhaps, aircon rather than log fires. Korbel rather than Moet.
We open with both the
IMF and UN warning of a global slowdown arriving, with more to come from trade wars,
Brexit and Italian banks. They seem to have overlooked Deutsche Bank for now,
although if trade war Team Trump slap 25 percent tariffs on German cars, when Deutsche
Dirty Autos hit the crash barriers it’s all too likely that it’s Deutsche Bank
that emerges from the wreckage like the Duke of Edinburgh.
"We shouldn't pour cold water on everything. We, the eight or nine players in global investment banking, have a very good future."
Deutsche Bank, CEO Josef Ackermann. Davos, January 2007.
IMF fears trade war and weak Europe could trigger sharp global slowdown
January 21, 2019 / 1:09 PM
DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - The
International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its world economic growth forecasts
for 2019 and 2020 due to weakness in Europe and some emerging markets, and said
failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilise a slowing global
economy.
In its second downgrade in three months, the global lender also cited a
bigger-than-expected slowdown in China’s economy and a possible “No Deal”
Brexit as risks to its outlook, saying these could worsen market turbulence in
financial markets.
The IMF predicted the global economy to grow at 3.5 percent in 2019 and
3.6 percent in 2020, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point respectively from last
October’s forecasts.
The new forecasts, released on the eve of this week’s gathering of world
leaders and business executives in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, show that
policymakers may need to come up with plans to deal with an end to years of
solid global growth.
“After two years of solid expansion, the world economy is growing more
slowly than expected and risks are rising,” IMF Managing Director Christine
Lagarde told a briefing.
---- The downgrades reflected signs of weakness in Europe, with its export powerhouse Germany hurt by new fuel emission standards for cars and with Italy under market pressure due to Rome’s recent budget standoff with the European Union.
Growth in the euro zone is set to moderate from 1.8 percent in 2018 to
1.6 percent in 2019, 0.3 percentage point lower than projected three months
ago, the IMF said.
The IMF also cut its 2019 growth forecast for developing countries to
4.5 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous projection and a
slowdown from 4.7 percent in 2018.
More
U.N. sees global economy growing 3 percent in 2019 but beset by risk
January 21, 2019 / 4:15 PM
GENEVA (Reuters) - The United
Nations expects the global economy to grow 3.0 percent this year and in 2020,
slightly below a 3.1 percent expansion in 2018, it said on Monday.
But urgent and concrete policy action is needed to put the world on
track to meet the U.N.’s goals for eradicating poverty by 2030, it said in its
annual economic forecast, the “World Economic Situation and Prospects”.
“There are plenty of yellow lights flashing and some of those yellow
lights are almost certainly likely to turn red over the coming year, with very
unpredictable consequences,” said Richard Kozul-Wright, head of globalization
and development strategies at the U.N. economic agency UNCTAD.
“Growth is fragile, huge uncertainties remain, risks are looming. We
have not broken away from the legacy of the financial crisis of 2008-2009. We
are still in a new abnormal.”
The report said employment was rising but job quality remained low and
far greater economic growth was needed in Africa to get people out of poverty.
---- The global short-term picture appeared “reasonably comfortable”, Kozul-Wright said, but many risks had become much more worrying in the past few months, including the end of the “sugar rush” given to the U.S. economy by President Donald Trump’s tax cuts.
There were risks associated with slowing growth in Germany and China,
the Italian banking system, Britain’s exit from the European Union, and the
fact that the world economy was still overly burdened with debt a decade after
the financial crisis.
More
Asian markets slip on global growth worries
Asian markets were lower on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global outlook for 2019 and 2020. The downgrade came after China said its economy grew at the slowest pace in 30 years in the last quarter of 2018. Wall Street was closed for a holiday on Monday.Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, -0.47% shed 0.5% and the Kospi SEU, -0.44% in South Korea was down 0.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -1.13% lost 0.9%. The Shanghai Composite index SHCOMP, -1.16% fell 0.7%, as did the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, -1.19% . Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, -0.54% slipped 0.4%. Shares fell in Taiwan Y9999, +0.05% and Singapore STI, -0.36% .
---- “Against the backdrop of refreshed woes over growth and U.S. markets having been away for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day, there leaves little to inspire Asia markets,” Jingyi Pan of IG said in a commentary.
U.S. crude CLG9, -0.95% was 28 cents lower at $53.76 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added 3.3% to $54.04 per barrel in New York. Brent crude LCOH9, -1.07% , used to price international oils, dropped 47 cents to $62.27 per barrel. It closed at $62.74 per barrel in London.
The dollar USDJPY, -0.22% eased to 109.44 yen from 109.65 yen late Monday.
Hedge Fund Billionaire Griffin Buys $122 Million London Home
By Jack Sidders, Nishant Kumar, and Tom Metcalf
Updated on 21 January 2019, 17:31 GMT
·
I suspect that under the Great Nixonian
Error of fiat money, in this Davos led polarising world, it all ends in a
Comrade Agent Corbyn, New Communist Labour Party Government and a future
similar to Venezuela. The Democrat Socialists taking over in America.
The whole history of civilization is strewn with creeds and institutions which were invaluable at first, and deadly afterwards.
Walter Bagehot
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over
banksters and politicians.
Davos again. Why can’t they
walk or take the bus, say the local yokels? Davos man says, why are the yokels
even allowed to stay during Davos week. Ominously, why are they meeting as Venus conjuncts
this morning with Jupiter? Aren't they doing enough damage already?
(Thankfully the rain clouds have cleared and I have a spectacular view of Venus and Jupiter from my bedroom windows.)
(Thankfully the rain clouds have cleared and I have a spectacular view of Venus and Jupiter from my bedroom windows.)
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith
It’s Limos Versus Locals When the Elite Gather for Davos
Catherine Bosley Jan 20 2019, 8:00 AM Jan
21 2019, 10:29 AM
(Bloomberg) -- The droves of black
limousines on the snow-covered streets of Davos during the World Economic Forum
are frustrating the locals of the Swiss mountain town. In a country where the
central bank chief and government ministers regularly take public transport,
the failure of Forum attendees to do the same is the top complaint of the
town’s 11,000 residents. They say traffic gets so snarled it becomes dangerous
for children to walk to school.
The frustration also highlights the culture clash between the inhabitants of the midmarket ski resort and the overseas business, political and entertainment glitterati who rub shoulders there for a few days each January. “People wear leather dress shoes and then use the limousines because they don’t want to slip on the ice,” said Ladina Alioth, a teacher and mother of three recently elected to to the local legislature. She’s proud to host the WEF and but says last year it was too disruptive. “I wear boots and pack the shoes I wear indoors — why can’t they do that too?” The four-day annual meeting on Magic Mountain kicks off on Jan. 22. Once the crowds head home, the Davos mayor’s office asks citizens what they want done better. Limos topped the 2018 complaints.
The WEF is vital to local businesses and generates an estimated 2 million francs ($2 million) in tax revenue for the town. But recent local resistance to increasing funding for security suggests a level of Forum fatigue has set in.
The nexus of activity is town’s conference center, but parties and cocktail receptions take place farther afield, including the Intercontinental Hotel, a 40-minute walk away. The WEF’s guide for attendees includes information on local transport options and advice to bring “comfortable, warm shoes.” It also provides shoe grips for snow.
“Over the last several years, the amount of private cars and traffic in Davos has increased significantly,” said Soumitra Dutta, a professor at Cornell and a regular attendee who takes a WEF-organized bus from Zurich airport. “I am not surprised that local residents are not pleased with the congestion.”
While the city bus regularly plies the main drag of Promenade (transport is free), a delegate’s agenda packed full with meetings, seminars, lunches and evening parties can make a car appealing. Uber is also offering its services for the week.
Luxury does have its price: Traveling to Davos with a hired car from Zurich airport costs about 800 francs to 1,500 francs, with only marginal — if any — time saving over the train. A first-class rail ticket is only about 50 francs, though you have to change trains. ’Round the clock service during the WEF, including pickup and drop-off at Zurich airport, can cost 20,000 francs.
more
The frustration also highlights the culture clash between the inhabitants of the midmarket ski resort and the overseas business, political and entertainment glitterati who rub shoulders there for a few days each January. “People wear leather dress shoes and then use the limousines because they don’t want to slip on the ice,” said Ladina Alioth, a teacher and mother of three recently elected to to the local legislature. She’s proud to host the WEF and but says last year it was too disruptive. “I wear boots and pack the shoes I wear indoors — why can’t they do that too?” The four-day annual meeting on Magic Mountain kicks off on Jan. 22. Once the crowds head home, the Davos mayor’s office asks citizens what they want done better. Limos topped the 2018 complaints.
The WEF is vital to local businesses and generates an estimated 2 million francs ($2 million) in tax revenue for the town. But recent local resistance to increasing funding for security suggests a level of Forum fatigue has set in.
The nexus of activity is town’s conference center, but parties and cocktail receptions take place farther afield, including the Intercontinental Hotel, a 40-minute walk away. The WEF’s guide for attendees includes information on local transport options and advice to bring “comfortable, warm shoes.” It also provides shoe grips for snow.
“Over the last several years, the amount of private cars and traffic in Davos has increased significantly,” said Soumitra Dutta, a professor at Cornell and a regular attendee who takes a WEF-organized bus from Zurich airport. “I am not surprised that local residents are not pleased with the congestion.”
While the city bus regularly plies the main drag of Promenade (transport is free), a delegate’s agenda packed full with meetings, seminars, lunches and evening parties can make a car appealing. Uber is also offering its services for the week.
Luxury does have its price: Traveling to Davos with a hired car from Zurich airport costs about 800 francs to 1,500 francs, with only marginal — if any — time saving over the train. A first-class rail ticket is only about 50 francs, though you have to change trains. ’Round the clock service during the WEF, including pickup and drop-off at Zurich airport, can cost 20,000 francs.
more
World’s wealthiest saw their fortunes increase by $2.5 billion a day in 2018: Oxfam
By Barbara
Kollmeyer Published: Jan 21,
2019 4:11 a.m. ET
Poorest half of the world saw their wealth drop 11%
While the poorest half of the world was scraping by on less than $5.50 a day in 2018, the world’s billionaires saw their wealth increase by $900 billion — or $2.5 billion a day.That’s according to a new report released Monday from Oxfam a day ahead of the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The report reveals that the number of billionaires has nearly doubled since the financial crisis, with a new billionaire created every day between 2017 and 2018.
On a percentage basis, the world’s wealthiest saw their fortunes rise 12% last year, while the poorest — 3.8 billion people— experienced an 11% drop.
Last week, a separate survey from Wealth X showed the wealth of the world’s high net worth individuals — those with between $1 million and $30 million in assets — grew by just 1.9% to 22.4 million people in 2018. Their combined wealth also grew by 1.8% to $61.3 trillion, below the rate of global economic growth of approximately 3.7% last year.
The fortune of Amazon AMZN, +0.18% Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos rose to $112 billion in 2018. Just 1% of that figure is equal to the entire health budget of Ethiopia, with a population of 105 million, says Oxfam.
More
"The leaders of the French Revolution excited the poor
against the rich; this made the rich poor, but it never made the poor
rich."
Fisher Ames, 1758-1808.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
New light shed on intensely studied material
Polarons, bipolarons, and absorption spectroscopy of PEDOT
Date:
January 17, 2019
Source:
Linköping University
Summary:
The organic polymer PEDOT is probably one of the world's most intensely studied
materials. Despite this, researchers have now demonstrated that the material
functions in a completely different manner than previously believed. The result
has huge significance in many fields of application.
More than 1,500 scientific articles are devoted each year to the
conducting organic polymer PEDOT, making it probably one of the world's most
intensely studied materials. This polymer has unique properties, and is highly
suitable for use in solar cells, electrodes, light-emitting diodes, soft
displays, bioelectronic components, and many other applications. However, most
articles are experimental in nature, and only a tiny fraction -- fewer than one
in a thousand -- of the articles provide a theoretical understanding of the
various aspects of the polymer. The same is true for the electronic structure
of PEDOT.
"The age of trial and error research should be over. I cannot
imagine how it would be possible today to develop a new material without having
a deep theoretical understanding of the underlying principles that determine
its properties," says Igor Zozoulenko, professor and head of the theory
and modelling group at the Laboratory of Organic Electronics, Linköping
University, Campus Norrköping.
He is also the main author of an article in ACS Applied Polymer
Materials that presents a new theory of electronic structure and optical
properties of PEDOT that overturns a large part of the corresponding previous
research into PEDOT.
The calculation model currently recognised as the most accurate for
predicting the properties of materials is known as "DFT," an
abbreviation of "density functional theory." The method calculates
quantum mechanical electron densities in the most efficient way possible, and
has become a standard within the various branches of materials science. For
organic conducting polymers, however, models developed in the 1980s -- before
the DFT gained its widespread use -- are still widely utilized. The work of the
researchers at LiU has shown that these models are clearly erroneous.
"Many of the analyses that have been presented in scientific
articles about PEDOT will have to be re-visited and revised," says Igor
Zozoulenko.
One of the major differences concerns the optical absorption, or
(somewhat simplified) the light-emitting properties, of the material. These
are, of course, crucial for its use in solar cells, soft displays, and other
applications. The optical spectrum -- the colour of the light -- depends on the
electronic structure of the material, including such properties as the energy
levels at which electrons are located inside the atom, the spins they possess,
and the way in which they can move in the material. Since our understanding has
been deficient, the interpretation of the experimental results has been wrong.
More
Set in Camelot D.C., Arthur and Guinevere have a daughter. At the Blessing of Princess Aurora, Jerome Powell arrives and sets an evil curse on the child, forcing the child into paying off the exploding national debt. Lurking darkly in the White House, President Trump promises to double it.
With apologies to Richard Gauntlett author of pantomime scripts.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.
DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ:
6,635 +152 Down. SP500: 2,507 +90 Down.
Normally this would suggest more
correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary activating the
Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a politicised PPT
cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action here is fully paid
up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.
Hopefully a USA – China trade deal
reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs, is a market
killer.
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