Baltic Dry Index. 1055 -41 Brent Crude 60.97
Trump 25 percent
tariffs 43 days away. Brexit 72 days
away.
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
Don’t expect much in
the way of concession from China in the ever growing trade war between the USA
and China. The USA is now trying to nuke China’s Huawei and ZTE. President Xi
can’t be seen to kowtow to President Trump like some 19th century
Emperor. I suspect we are just days away from more “spontaneous” boycotts of US
firms, products, and tourism. 43 days away from 25 percent tariffs on Chinese
exports to the USA.
Below, what probably
triggers the next global recession. Unhappily for those superstitious, we are
just six days away from the conjunction of Venus and Jupiter. Southeast sky,
just before dawn January 22. The second and third brightest objects in our
night sky. The Baltic Dry Index is sinking fast again.
“Once
the principle is admitted that it is the duty of the government to protect the
individual against his own foolishness, no serious objections can be advanced
against further encroachments.”
Asian shares rise, but report of U.S. probe into Huawei mutes gains
Trade theft investigation could renew U.S.-China trade tensions
Asian shares were mostly higher Thursday after strong earnings reports lifted indexes on Wall Street. But a report that the U.S. was investigating China’s Huawei for allegedly stealing trade secrets from American companies limited gains.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, +0.10% gained 0.4% and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 XJO, +0.26% rose 0.3%.The Shanghai Composite index SHCOMP, +0.29% surged 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index NIK, -0.27% edged 0.1% while South Korea’s Kospi SEU, +0.06% added 0.2%. Shares rose in Taiwan Y9999, +0.30% but fell in Singapore STI, -0.21%
---- Strong earnings reports by financial and investment companies like Goldman Sachs GS, +9.54% spurred gains Wednesday. But worries about U.S.-China relations put a drag on sentiment. The broad S&P 500 index SPX, +0.22% rose 0.2% to 2,616.10, after rising as much as 0.6% during the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.59% was 0.6% higher at 24,207.16 and the Nasdaq composite COMP, +0.15% gained 0.2% to 7,034.69.
More
U.S. lawmakers introduce bipartisan bills targeting China's Huawei and ZTE
January 16, 2019 / 7:01 PM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A bipartisan group
of U.S. lawmakers introduced bills on Wednesday that would ban the sale of U.S.
chips or other components to Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [HWT.UL], ZTE Corp or
other Chinese telecommunications companies that violate U.S. sanctions or
export control laws.
The proposed law was introduced shortly before the Wall Street Journal
reported federal prosecutors were investigating allegations that Huawei stole
trade secrets from T-Mobile U.S. Inc and other U.S. businesses.
The Journal said that an indictment could be coming soon on allegations
that Huawei stole T-Mobile technology, called Tappy, which mimicked human
fingers and was used to test smartphones.
Huawei said in a statement the company and T-Mobile settled their
disputes in 2017 following a U.S. jury verdict that found “neither damage,
unjust enrichment nor willful and malicious conduct by Huawei in T-Mobile’s
trade secret claim”.
The legislation is the latest in a long list of actions taken to fight
what some in the Trump administration call China’s cheating through
intellectual property theft, illegal corporate subsidies and rules hampering
U.S. corporations that want to sell their goods in China.
In November, the U.S. Department of Justice unveiled an initiative to
investigate China’s trade practices with a goal of bringing trade secret theft
cases.
More
Trump expected to propose legislation to broaden powers to impose tariffs
1/15/2019
WASHINGTON—Industry officials are waiting to see the details of a Trump
administration draft bill that would substantially change the imposition of
tariffs on foreign goods.
The "United States Reciprocal Trade Act" would give the
president power to instigate line-by-line tariff increases on goods imported by
countries that he determines have raised tariff or non-tariff barriers on U.S.
products.
President Trump is expected to propose the legislation Jan. 29 during
his State of the Union address.
Officials of associations representing the auto aftermarket said they
had heard about the draft bill, but had not yet polled their members for their
opinions.
However, they agreed that the tariffs placed by the Trump administration
last year on imported steel, imported aluminum and some $200 billion worth of
goods were causing great concern among their members.
"Uncertainty is hanging over everybody's head," said Stuart
Gosswein, senior director, federal government affairs, at the Specialty
Equipment Market Association. "Nobody had this in their budgets for
2019."
The tariffs on imported steel have affected prices not only on imported
steel, but on U.S.-produced steel as well, according to Gosswein.
"If they're buying domestic steel, there's been a lot of
hoarding," he said. "Domestic companies had to raise prices, which
had the same effect as tariffs on imported steel."
SEMA, he added, strongly supports the Trump administration's efforts to
curtail Chinese theft of intellectual property.
But the president already has sweeping powers to raise tariffs under
Section 232 and 301 of the Trade Act. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of
1962 allows the president to raise tariffs on or use other means against
imported goods he deems to threaten national security. Section 301 of the Trade
Act of 1974 authorizes the president to take action against any act, policy or
practice by another country that violates an international trade agreement or
that places a burden on U.S. commerce.
A spokeswoman for the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association
pointed to the filings MEMA made throughout 2018 opposing the Trump
administration's tariff programs.
In a November 2018 submission to the U.S. Department of Commerce, MEMA
urged the administration to allow greater flexibility on steel and aluminum
tariffs and exempt Mexican and Canadian imports from tariffs.
"Often, there are few (steel) producers in the world—in some cases
only one or two—that can source the grade of specialty materials needed to make
component specifications," the association said. "Examples include
wire used in steel-belted radial tires and specialty metals used in fuel injectors."
MEMA, SEMA and the Auto Care Association were among 150 trade
associations from a broad range of industries that wrote U.S. Trade
Representative Robert Lighthizer in September 2018, opposing the imposition of
10 percent and 25 percent tariffs against goods imported from China.
"Assumptions that U.S. companies can simply move their production
out of China are incorrect," the letter stated. "Global supply chains
are extremely complex.
"It can take years to find the right partners who can meet the
proper criteria and produce products at the scale and cost that is
needed," it said. "We do not support the U.S. government using
tariffs as a means to induce U.S. companies to change their sourcing
strategies."
COLUMN-Global economy is headed for recession: Kemp
by Reuters Thursday,
17 January 2019 02:00 GMT
By John Kemp
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Global growth is slowing and the world
economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it
renewed momentum.
The OECD's composite leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in
November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the
end of 2017.
Growth momentum has been easing for some time in Britain, Canada, France
and Italy and there were tentative signs of slackening momentum in the United
States and Germany in November.
The composite indicator is likely to fall even further when data for
December are published next month, given the weakness already revealed in
equity markets and business surveys.
The OECD composite leading indicator has been weakening consistently for
the last year and now points unambiguously to a contraction ahead
(https://tmsnrt.rs/2HfQKH5).
RECESSION READING
In the last 50 years, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3, there
has almost always been a recession in the United States (1970, 1974, 1980,
1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008).
The one exception was the weakening of the index in 1998, when the
United States continued to grow, despite the weakening global economy in the
aftermath of the Asian financial crisis.
Even in this case, however, the interest-rate setting Federal Open
Market Committee noted "the economy has been holding up but is now showing
clear signs of deterioration."
"When we feed this information into our various models, they
inevitably, as we might expect, engender a quite considerable softening."
The observations are contained in the transcript of an unusual,
out-of-cycle conference call held by the Federal Open Market Committee in
September 1998.
One week later, the Federal Reserve responded to signs of a weakening
economy by cutting U.S. interest rates.
FREIGHT SLOWDOWN
Most of the world's major economies outside the United States showed
clear signs of slackening growth in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Even in the United States, the Institute for Supply Management's
manufacturing index for December showed the sharpest deceleration in growth
since the recessions of 2008 and 2001
----. Air freight through Hong Kong International Airport, the world's busiest air cargo hub and a proxy for global trade, was down 1.6 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
Air freight volumes in Hong Kong were down by a massive 5 percent in December
compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the Civil Aviation
Department.
More
Finally, Germany admits its been playing Brexit “games.”
German manufacturers now bitterly rue the day Mrs Merkel sent Dodgy Dave
Cameron back to the UK with an empty envelope to sell to British voters back in
2016.
Time for playing games on Brexit over - German foreign minister
January 16, 2019 / 7:01 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - With the clock ticking
ahead of Britain’s scheduled exit from the European Union at the end of March,
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Wednesday the “time for playing
games” was over after London’s rejection of a withdrawal agreement.
Maas said further talks would almost
certainly be needed after Britain’s parliament voted down the exit deal worked
out between London and the bloc over the past two years.
“The time for playing games is over,” Maas told Deutschlandfunk radio,
adding that the EU would deal “constructively” with any British request to
delay the departure date.
German economy minister Peter Altmaier said that the EU would look at
any fresh proposals London made, but said the substance of the deal was
non-negotiable.
But umbrella groups representing German industry, whose cross-border
supply chains stand to be hit by the imposition of a hard customs border
between Britain and the continent, were less conciliatory.
Martin Wansleben, head of the German Chambers of Commerce, warned that
the political uncertainty now made planning almost impossible and that German
companies were already starting to build inventory in preparation.
German auto makers would start asking whether it was worth investing in
Britain, he added.
More
German carmakers warn hard Brexit would be 'fatal'
January 16, 2019 / 10:45 AM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German carmakers on
Wednesday warned of fatal consequences if Britain left the European Union
without a divorce deal, predicting job losses in Britain and Europe and urging
lawmakers to redouble efforts to ensure tariff-free trade can continue.
---- Britain would suffer most if it lost
free trade with European markets since 80 percent of vehicles assembled in the
country are exported, mostly to the European Union. But for Germany the stakes
are also high.
In 2016, Britain was the largest single export market for German
manufacturers, who sold 800,000 new cars there, or 20 percent of their overall
global exports. Fewer cars are exported to China and U.S. because German
carmakers have factories there.
“The consequences of a ‘no deal’ would be fatal,” German auto industry
association VDA said after the vote.
---- “We strongly urge all relevant stakeholders to do everything possible in order to establish much needed certainty for our business and to maintain the truly frictionless trade on which our international production network is based,” BMW said.
BMW, which builds 60 percent of its Mini vehicles at a plant in Oxford,
southern England, relies heavily on components imported from BMW’s German
plants. It has beefed up its logistics to include air freight options.
More
“All rational action is in the first place individual action.
Only the individual thinks. Only the individual reasons. Only the individual
acts.”
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over
banksters and politicians.
Yes, more crooks again today. Today Ukrainians
hacking the SEC. They’ll be Russians working for Trump to the FBI and the
Democrats.
Ukrainian Hackers Broke Into The SEC's EDGAR Database, Made $4.1 Million From Insider Trades
Tue, 01/15/2019 - 18:25
On Tuesday, United States authorities charged
numerous mostly Ukrainian hackers for a scheme to trade on press releases that
had not yet been released. The Ukrainians breached the SEC's EDGAR database
to receive access to the nonpublic information.The scheme netted over $4 million for fraudsters from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. Using 157 corporate earnings announcements, the group was able to execute trades on material nonpublic information. Most of those filings were "test filings," which corporations upload to the SEC's website.
The charges were announced Tuesday by Craig Carpenito, U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, alongside the SEC, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. Secret Service, which investigates financial crimes. In a Tuesday press conference, Carpenito said the thefts included thousands of valuable, private business documents. "After hacking into the EDGAR system they stole drafts of [these] reports before the information was disseminated to the general public," he said.
The elaborate scheme involved seven individuals and operated from May to at least October 2016. Prosecutors said the traders were part of the same group that previously hacked into newswire services, according to CNBC.
Similar to the way John Podesta's email account was hacked, the hackers used malicious software sent via email to SEC employees. Then, after planting the software on the SEC computers, they sent the information they were able to gather from the EDGAR system to servers in Lithuania, where they either used it or distributed the data to other criminals, Carpenito said. The EDGAR service operates in New Jersey, which is why the Justice Department office in Newark was involved in the case.
Those documents included quarterly earnings, mergers and acquisitions plans and other sensitive news, and the criminals were able to view it before it was released as a public filing, thus affecting the individual companies' stock prices. The alleged hackers executed trades on the reports and also sold them to other illicit traders. One inside trader made $270,000 in a single day, according to Carpenito.
Stephanie Avakian, co-head of the SEC's Division of Enforcement, said the same criminals also stole advance press releases sent to three newswire services, though she didn't name the newswires. The hackers used multiple broker accounts to collect the illicit gains, she said.
The defendants then kicked back a portion of their trading profits to Oleksandr Ieremenko, a Ukrainian (oddly not Russian) hacker that is said to have infiltrated the database at some point between May 2016 in October 2016. There, he obtained thousands of "test filings" which included, among other things, earnings results.
Two Ukrainians were charged by the Justice Department with hacking the database — Oleksandr Ieremenko and Artem Radchenko. Seven further individuals and entities were also named in a civil suit by the SEC for trading on the illicit information: Sungjin Cho, David Kwon, Igor Sabodakha, Victoria Vorochek, Ivan Olefir, Andrey Sarafanov, Capyield Systems, Ltd. (owned by Olefir) and Spirit Trade Ltd.
Ieremenko had previously been charged in 2015 for a similar plot involving hacking into the databases of distribution companies who are responsible for putting out corporate press releases. Ieremenko and Artem Radchenko face a criminal indictment for conspiracy to commit securities fraud. Radchenko allegedly “recruited traders to join the conspiracy” and kept notes on what the SEC does and how to hack it, the Justice Department said.
More
“I
sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a
principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke
that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News]
paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in
the same way.”
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
CERN's proposed 100-km particle accelerator would run rings around the LHC
16 January 2019
CERN, the European research organization responsible for operating the
Large Hadron Collider (LHC), has released a report outlining a proposed particle
accelerator that would be nearly four times as long and 10 times as powerful as
its predecessor. Dubbed the Future Circular Collider (FCC) – for the time being
at least – the LHC's successor would cost around €9 billion (US$10.26 billion)
and could be up and running by 2040.
The LHC only recently celebrated its 10th birthday and is responsible for numerous scientific breakthroughs – most notably the confirmation of the existence of the Higgs boson. Although the LHC still has plenty of physics secrets to uncover (it's currently undergoing a massive upgrade to enable higher energy collisions), CERN is already looking further into the future. Considering it took 10 years to build the LHC and its 27-km-long (17-mi) tunnel, it's probably a good idea to start planning for the FCC now.
The FCC collaboration's Conceptual Design Report (CDR) outlines different options for delivering a future large circular collider capable of delivering electron-positron, proton-proton and ion-ion collisions at unprecedented energies and intensities. The ultimate goal is to provide a superconducting proton accelerator ring with a circumference of 100 km (62 mi) that is capable of smashing particles at energies of up to 100 TeV – for comparison, the LHC set a world record in 2015 with collisions reaching an energy of 13 TeV.
The footprint of the FCC would overlap that of the LHC, allowing some sharing of systems. It's expected the cost of civil engineering to construct the first stage would run to around €5 billion (US$5.7 billion). It could begin operations by 2040 when the upgraded High-Luminosity LHC is due to wind down, and deliver 15 to 20 years of use to the worldwide physics community. A superconducting proton machine making use of the same 100-km tunnel would cost an additional €15 billion (US$17 billion) and could begin operations in the late 2050s.
CERN describes the FCC as a powerful "Higgs factory," enabling precise study of how Higgs particles interact with each other, as well as aiding in the search for new massive particles and being able to "significantly expand our knowledge of matter and the universe." It's also hoped the FCC will provide evidence to explain dark matter and the dominance of matter over antimatter, which don't fit into the Standard Model of particle physics.
While such goals are laudable, the astronomical price tag of the FCC is likely to give pause to many of the partner countries that will be called on to reach into their pockets – especially given the cost overruns of the LHC. But the 1,300 contributors to the FCC design study, from 150 universities, research institutes and industrial partners, would no doubt ask, what price knowledge?
https://newatlas.com/future-circular-collider-physics/58068/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2019-01-16%20093802%20Other%20Daily%20Basic%202019-01-16%20094219%20CERNs%20proposed%20100-km%20particle%20accelerator%20would%20run%20rings%20around%20the%20LHC&utm_content=2019-01-16%20093802%20Other%20Daily%20Basic%202019-01-16%20094219%20CERNs%20proposed%20100-km%20particle%20accelerator%20would%20run%20rings%20around%20the%20LHC+CID_c8b9b2cd954c92f91ae30050e23306fb&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=CERNs%20proposed%20100-km%20particle%20accelerator%20would%20run%20rings%20around%20the%20LHC
Every
generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before
it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.
George
Orwell.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.
DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ:
6,635 +152 Down. SP500: 2,507 +90 Down.
Normally this would suggest more
correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary activating the
Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a politicised PPT
cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action here is fully paid
up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.
Hopefully a USA – China trade deal
reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs, is a market
killer.
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