Baltic Dry Index. 1096 -51 Brent Crude 60.76
“Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things
before breakfast.”
Prime Minister May, with apologies to Lewis
Carroll and Alice.
In a sign of just how
irrelevant the GB v EUSSR Brexit debate has become, despite continuous melodramatic
coverage in the GB and European media, markets in America and Asia reacted with
a big yawn to British Prime Minister May’s long overdue defeat on her EUSSR
withdrawal surrender agreement.
No one other than Prime
Minister May and 5 overpaid and under worked EU presidents ever thought it
stood any chance of passing in the GB House of Commons. Europe’s elite
everywhere are hopelessly out of touch with the new reality.
Even the Project Fear
great Sterling selloff failed to appear after Mrs May’s hopeless gamble went so
predictably wrong. Later today she faces a vote of no confidence, which she
should easily win, and then in any sane world, would resign. But GB right now
is far from a sane world. Most of the Parliament and nearly all of the media
are hopeless Europhiles out of touch with the majority of the British public.
The Brexit madness will stumble on to Brexit on March 29.
Below how the real world
is indifferent to Brexit’s outcome.
“Would you tell me, please, which way I
ought to go from here?" "That depends a good deal on where you want
to get to." "I don't much care where –" "Then it doesn't
matter which way you go.”
Prime Minister May, with apologies to Lewis
Carroll and Alice.
Asia shares subdued after May's Brexit vote defeat, pound steadies
January 16, 2019 / 1:35 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Asian shares took a breather on Wednesday after rallying the
previous day on Chinese stimulus hopes, with investors assessing Brexit options
after British lawmakers trounced Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal to withdraw
Britain from the European Union.
May’s crushing loss overnight triggered political upheaval that could lead to a disorderly exit from the European Union on March 29 or even to a reversal of the 2016 decision to leave.
Investors’ short-term focus is now on a confidence vote on May’s government by lawmakers later in the day.
.
Sterling GBP=D3 was last trading at $1.2841 on the dollar, off about 0.1 percent. It had rallied more than a cent from the day's lows against the dollar with the sizable defeat for May seen forcing Britain to pursue different options.
---- May’s defeat put pressure on UK-focused exchange-traded funds. A Tokyo-traded FTSE 100 ETF (1389.T) was down about one percent on Wednesday.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was a touch lower, having swung up on Tuesday after Chinese officials came out in force to signal more measures to stabilize a slowing economy.
Australian shares rose 0.2 percent while Japan's Nikkei .N225 lost 0.7 percent by midday.
China's blue-chip CSI300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen shares .CSI300 fell 0.1 percent on Wednesday.
---- China’s central bank on Wednesday made its biggest daily net cash injection via reverse repo operations on record — totaling $51.6 billion — in another sign of growing concern over risks facing the slowing economy.
---- In Tuesday's session on Wall Street, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 1.1 percent as technology and internet stocks gained on Netflix Inc's (NFLX.O) plans to raise fees for U.S. subscribers.
The S&P 500 communication services index .SPLRCL, which includes Netflix and Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O), jumped 1.7 percent, while the technology sector .SPLRCT tacked on 1.5 percent.
The China stimulus hints and dovish remarks by one of the U.S. central bank’s most hawkish policymakers also helped lift the U.S. market.
Ester George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and a voting member of the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year, made the case for patience and caution on interest rate hikes to avoid choking off growth.
More
In the real world,
far from the political fantasies of irrelevant party political dreamers, our
global economy continues to show alarming signs of rising trouble.
“Curiouser and curiouser!”
Trump
in Wonderland. With apologies to Lewis Carrol and Alice.
Shutdown bites economy, U.S. Coast Guard, as talks to end impasse stall
January 15, 2019 / 1:21 PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy is taking a larger-than-expected hit from the
partial government shutdown, White House estimates showed on Tuesday, as
contractors and even the Coast Guard go without pay and talks to end the
impasse seemed stalled.
The longest such shutdown in U.S. history dragged into its 25th day with
neither President Donald Trump nor Democratic congressional leaders showing
signs of bending on the topic that triggered it - funding for a wall Trump
promised to build along the border with Mexico.
Trump insists Congress shell out $5.7 billion for wall funding this
year, as about 800,000 federal workers go unpaid during the partial shutdown.
He has refused to support legislation providing money for a range of agencies
to operate until he gets the wall funds.
With the shutdown dragging on, federal courts will run out of operating
funds on Jan. 25 and face “serious disruptions” if the shutdown continues,
according to a court statement.
To try to take some of the sting out of the shutdown, Trump planned to
sign on Wednesday the “Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019,” which
is legislation that would ensure that those federal workers furloughed will
receive backpay once the shutdown is over.
The Internal Revenue Service said it planned to bring more than 46,000
furloughed workers back to their jobs as the agency enters its peak season of
processing tax returns and refunds.
Trump
invited a bipartisan group of lawmakers for lunch to discuss the standoff, but
the White House said Democrats turned down the invitation. Nine House of
Representatives Republicans, none of whom are involved in party leadership,
attended.
More
Oil torn between economic slowdown concerns, OPEC-led supply cuts
January 16, 2019 / 1:02 AM / Updated an
hour ago
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Wednesday as signs of a global economic
slowdown were countered by OPEC-led supply cuts which helped support Brent
crude futures above $60 per barrel.
International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $60.66 per barrel at
0444 GMT, 2 cents above their last close.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were flat from
their last settlement, at $52.11 a barrel.
“Fundamentals offer no clear price direction,” said Norbert Ruecker, head
of commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.
Prices were prevented from rising as signs of a global economic slowdown
mounted.
China, Asia’s biggest economy, faces rising trade uncertainties this
year, a commerce ministry official said on Wednesday, after the government
earlier this week reported poor December trade data, with both exports and
imports contracting from a year earlier.
In Japan, core machinery orders slowed sharply in November in a sign
corporate capital expenditure could lose momentum as a bruising U.S.-China
trade war spills into the global economy.
More
German GDP grew 1.5 percent in 2018, weakest rate in five years
January 15, 2019 / 9:07 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The German economy grew
by 1.5 percent in 2018, the weakest rate in five years and a clear slowdown
from the previous year, a preliminary estimate from the Federal Statistics
Office showed on Tuesday.
Europe’s largest economy is struggling
with a cooling of the global economy, trade disputes triggered by U.S.
President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies and the risk of Britain
leaving the European Union without a deal in March.
“The German economy thus grew the ninth year in a row, although growth
has lost momentum,” the statistics office said, adding that growth was mainly
driven by domestic demand with household consumption and state spending both up
on the year.
The Statistics Office said the economy probably grew slightly in the
fourth quarter of 2018, which would mean it escaped recession - defined as two
or more consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth in gross domestic
product (GDP) of 1.5 percent last year after an expansion rate of 2.2 percent
in 2017.
Adjusted for calendar effects, growth slowed to 1.5 percent from 2.5
percent in the previous year, the statistic office said.
Imports grew at a faster pace than exports, meaning that net trade had a
slight downward effect on overall German GDP growth, the office said.
Eurozone manufacturing slumps in November
Manufacturing in the eurozone slumped by 3.3pc in the year to November,
with falling production seen across all sub-sectors. Month-on-month drops were
the worst in nearly three years.
There were similar but less dramatic drops in production among the 28
countries making up the
European Union, with industry shrinking by 2.2pc over
the year, according to figures from Eurostat on Monday.
In November alone, seasonally adjusted production suffered a sharp 1.7pc
drop in the eurozone and 1.3pc across the EU. The results
counteracted modest 0.2pc increases in October.
More
China warns state firms to avoid travel to U.S. - Bloomberg
January 15, 2019 / 8:58 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China has asked some of the country’s state-run
companies to avoid business trips to the United States and its allies, and to
take extra care to protect their devices if they need to travel, Bloomberg
reported on Tuesday. The State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), which oversees about 100 government-run companies, has told some firms in recent weeks to only take secure, company-issued laptops meant for overseas use if travelling is necessary, according to the report here, citing people familiar with the request.
China’s travel advice also included warning on travelling to the other countries in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing pact - Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, Bloomberg said.
One state-owned Chinese energy firm had recently tightened information
technology security protocols for employees travelling to the United States, a
company source told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of
the matter.
Some employees at the company were not allowed to take laptops on such
trips and were ordered to delete all work-related data and information from
their personal phones before travelling, the person said.
Approved business trips to the United States had not been cancelled, the
person told Reuters.
More
'At any cost': China warns US Navy over Taiwan
Date
created :
A senior Chinese military official warned the US Navy Tuesday against
any "interference" in support of Taiwan's independence, saying that
Beijing would defend its claim to the island "at any cost".
General Li Zuocheng, a member of the Central Military Commission, made
the remarks during a meeting in Beijing with Admiral John Richardson, the chief
of US naval operations.
China sees Taiwan as part of its territory to be reunified, despite the
two sides being ruled separately since they split in 1949 after a civil war won
by Mao Zedong's communists.
The self-ruled island has its own currency, flag and government, but is
not recognised as an independent state by the UN.
Beijing has said it will not hesitate to use force if Taipei formally
declares independence, or in the case of external intervention -- including by
the United States, the island's most powerful unofficial ally.
"The Taiwan issue is an internal matter of China, concerns China's
fundamental interests and the national feelings of the Chinese people, and no
outside interference will be tolerated," Li Zuocheng said in a statement
released by the Ministry of Defence.
"If anyone wants to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army
will defend the unity of the motherland at any cost," he told the the US
Navy chief.
In recent months, US Navy ships have repeatedly passed through the
Taiwan Strait, which separates mainland China from the island.
Beijing views any ships passing through the straits as essentially a
breach of its sovereignty -- while the US and many other nations view the route
as international waters open to all.
A recent US law encouraging mutual visits between US and Taiwanese
officials has also angered Beijing.
Washington, which broke diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979 to
recognise Beijing remains the island's most powerful ally, and its main arms
supplier.
“Oh, how I wish I could shut up like a telescope! I think I could, if
only I knew how to
begin.” For, you see, so many out-of-the-way things had
happened lately, that Prime Minister May had begun to think that very few
things indeed were really impossible.
Prime Minister May, with apologies to Lewis
Carroll and Alice.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over
banksters and politicians.
No crooks today, they’ll be back tomorrow. Today rising trouble among
the car builders. If 2018 was bad, 2019
looks likely to be worse.
Global auto leaders urge Trump administration to end trade turmoil
January 14, 2019 / 4:22 PM
DETROIT (Reuters) - Auto executives gathered in Detroit on Monday called
on the Trump administration and Congress to resolve trade disputes, and end the
government shutdown, saying political uncertainty is costing the industry.
U.S. trade officials are negotiating a new deal with China in hopes of avoiding new tariffs, while a new regional trade agreement with Canada and Mexico still needs congressional approval. Automakers producing vehicles in the United States are contending with U.S. steel and aluminum prices driven higher by Trump administration tariffs.
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCHA.MI) (FCAU.N) Chief Executive Mike Manley told reporters at the Detroit auto show on Monday that U.S. metals tariffs will raise the automaker’s 2019 costs by $300 million to $350 million, or about $135 to $160 a vehicle, based on the automaker’s 2018 U.S. sales.
Toyota Motor Corp’s (7203.T) executive vice president for North American sales, Bob Carter, said the company has had to raise prices three times because of higher tariff costs - even though 96 percent of steel in Toyota U.S. vehicles is from U.S. steel plants. The tariffs boosted industry vehicles prices by about $600 on average, he estimated.
More
New warning adds to fears for global car industry
Concerns about the car industry’s health continue to mount after parts
giant Continental warned of deteriorating conditions in the sector, sales of
cars in China plunged and Ford flagged up the huge costs of developing
technology for electric and driverless vehicles.
Continental, the world’s second-largest supplier of vehicle parts and
tyres, forecast weak demand for at least the first six months of
this year.
The German-based business - an industry bellwether - twice warned on
profits last year and on Monday gave an update painting a picture that is only
getting bleaker.
“The main reasons are continued weak demand in China, the trade dispute
between the US and China [and] general uncertainty around Brexit,” said chief
financial officer Wolfgang Schaefer, adding that changes to emissions testing
regimes had also put the brakes on demand.
“Optimism is likely to end with Continental giving a very sobering
outlook for 2019,” said Evercore ISI analyst Arndt Ellinghorst. “And
Continental will not be the last.”
Compounding worries were disappointing figures on car sales in China, the world’s largest market. Figures from the China Passenger Car Association revealed a 4.1pc fall in deliveries of passenger vehicles by dealers to 23.7m last year - the first such decline in 28 years.
The association also forecast flat sales in 2019, reinforcing the 6pc
decline in retail sales posted last week.
News was also bad as the industry prepared for the Detroit Auto Show.
Ford chief executive Bill Hackett used an eve-of-show interview to highlight
the costs of creating autonomous and electric systems for the technological
revolution set to sweep the industry.
He said his company may broaden its tie-up on commercial vehicles with
Volkswagen to share the costs of developing systems for cars.
“Being able to fund both the change in the old and the new is why I’ve
thought about other partner to do that,” Mr Hackett said.
The warnings come after a tumultuous week for the UK automotive sector.
Last Thursday, Jaguar Land Rover said it was cutting 4,500 jobs - more than a
tenth of its UK workforce. The losses at Britain’s biggest car maker came
on top of 1,500 redundancies last year.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Breakthrough in organic electronics
Date:
January 14, 2019
Source:
Chalmers University of Technology
Summary:
Researchers have discovered a simple new tweak that could double the efficiency
of organic electronics. OLED-displays, plastic-based solar cells and
bioelectronics are just some of the technologies that could benefit from their
new discovery, which deals with 'double-doped' polymers.
Researchers from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, have
discovered a simple new tweak that could double the efficiency of organic
electronics. OLED-displays, plastic-based solar cells and bioelectronics are
just some of the technologies that could benefit from their new discovery,
which deals with "double-doped" polymers.
The majority of our everyday electronics are based on inorganic
semiconductors, such as silicon. Crucial to their function is a process called
doping, which involves weaving impurities into the semiconductor to enhance its
electrical conductivity. It is this that allows various components in solar
cells and LED screens to work.
For organic -- that is, carbon-based -- semiconductors, this doping
process is similarly of extreme importance. Since the discovery of electrically
conducting plastics and polymers, a field for which a Nobel Prize was awarded
in 2000, research and development of organic electronics has accelerated
quickly. OLED-displays are one example which are already on the market, for
example in the latest generation of smartphones. Other applications have not
yet been fully realised, due in part to the fact that organic semiconductors
have so far not been efficient enough.
---- But now, in an article in the scientific journal Nature Materials, Professor Christian Müller and his group, together with colleagues from seven other universities demonstrate that it is possible to move two electrons to every dopant molecule.
"Through this 'double doping' process, the semiconductor can
therefore become twice as effective," says David Kiefer, PhD student in
the group and first author of the article.
According to Christian Müller, this innovation is not built on some
great technical achievement. Instead, it is simply a case of seeing what others
have not seen.
"The whole research field has been totally focused on studying
materials which only allow one redox reaction per molecule. We chose to look at
a different type of polymer, with lower ionisation energy. We saw that this
material allowed the transfer of two electrons to the dopant molecule. It is
actually very simple," says Christian Müller, Professor of Polymer Science
at Chalmers University of Technology.
----
The discovery offers fundamental knowledge and could help thousands of
researchers to achieve advances in flexible electronics, bioelectronics and
thermoelectricity. Christian Müller's research group themselves are researching
several different applied areas, with polymer technology at the centre. Among
other things, his group is looking into the development of electrically
conducting textiles and organic solar cells.
More
“But I don’t want
to go among mad people,” May remarked.
“Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Commons Speaker: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.”
“How do you know I’m mad?” said May.
“You must be,” said the Speaker, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”
“Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Commons Speaker: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.”
“How do you know I’m mad?” said May.
“You must be,” said the Speaker, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”
With apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished December.
DJIA: 23,327 +115 Down. NASDAQ:
6,635 +152 Down. SP500: 2,507 +90 Down.
Normally this would suggest more
correction still to come, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and his Treasury Secretary activating the
Plunge Protection Team after the Christmas Eve Crash, will a politicised PPT
cover the President’s back? [Yes] Probably the safest action here is fully paid
up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes.
Hopefully a USA – China trade deal
reinvigorates the markets, but failure and 25 percent tariffs, is a market
killer.
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