Saturday, 23 June 2018

Weekend Update 23/06/2018 Bad Week Ends Badly.


Based on the Tariffs and Trade Barriers long placed on the U.S. & its great companies and workers by the European Union, if these Tariffs and Barriers are not soon broken down and removed, we will be placing a 20% Tariff on all of their cars coming into the U.S. Build them here!

President Trump. Twitter 22-06-2018

Luckily the Dow and stocks managed an unconvincing relief rally, helped somewhat by OPEC’s weak agreement to increase production, by only about 600,000 barrels a day. (Officially 1 million barrels a day, but few expect that OPEC can reach that target.) It sets up stocks for a dress up week ahead, in the runup to the month-end, quarter-end, and half year end.

But President Trump’s worst PR week in office so far, might undo it all yet. Desperate to switch attention from the media focus on Trump’s children’s concentration camps in Texas, President Trump on Friday stepped up his trade war with Germany.

Things will go downhill fast in Germany and the EUSSR if President Trump really goes ahead with the nuke option, and 20 percent tariffs on European cars. While it might not make much of a dent in sales of Rolls Royces and Bentleys, which tend to sell by appointment and in limited quantities, it’s a death blow for German Mercs and Beamers. As goes Germany so goes continental EU. Trump’s tariff, if applied, torpedoes Germany and the EUSSR as we know it. In our grossly inter-related world, a sinking EUSSR swiftly blows back into the USA.

The mere threat of EU auto tariffs is destabilising enough. If President Trump and his trade war team continue the loose tariff talk next week, far from a dress up stock week, ahead of America’s following July 4th holiday week, what we could get is a massive defensive “dress down” week, as the Great Global Trump Trade War really starts to bite.

Below, just how bad last week became.

'By the way, I have great respect for China. I have many Chinese friends. They live in my buildings all over the place.'

Candidate Trump.

Dow snaps 8-session skid, but logs worst weekly fall since March as trade jitters persist

Published: June 22, 2018 4:54 p.m. ET

Energy stocks lead, supported by jump in crude prices

U.S. stock benchmarks ended mostly higher on Friday as an OPEC-inspired rally in energy shares helped the Dow industrials halt a lengthy slide, but equities rang up weekly losses in a period pockmarked by a series of trade-related spats.

What did the main benchmarks do?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.49% rose 119.19 points, or 0.5%, to 24,580.89, with the equity gauge ending an eight-day losing streak, that if extended to a ninth session would have represented the longest losing since 1978.

The S&P 500 SPX, +0.19% added 0.2%, or 5.12 points, to close at 2,754,88. Eight of 11 sectors finished higher, led by a 2.2% rise in the energy sector, a move that tracked a sharp rally in crude-oil prices.

The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.26% closed down 20.13, or 0.3%, at 7,692.82.

All three benchmarks finished off their best levels of the day in the final minutes of trade. Friday’s trading also marked the annual reconstitution of the Russell Indexes, where the index provider makes rule-based changes to composition of its indexes.

For the week, the Dow closed off 2%, marking its largest weekly decline since March 23, and its second straight weekly fall. The S&P 500 lost 0.9% over that frame and the Nasdaq booked a weekly drop of 0.3%, ending its streak of weekly gains at four straight.

What drove markets?

Investors have worried that trade tensions between the U.S. and major trading partners such as China and the European Union could develop into a big drag on the global economy. These concerns come as the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, is increasingly viewed as in the late stages of its expansion.

----In the latest trade development, Trump threatened 20% tariffs on European cars coming into the U.S. General Motors Co. GM, +0.32%  fell 0.3% while Ford Motor Co. F, -0.51%  was down 0.5%. Tesla Inc. TSA, +24.20%  sank 3.8%.

U.S. crude-oil futures CLQ8, +5.71% CLQ8, +5.71% surged 4.6% to settle at its highest level in a month, after members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers struck a deal that would result in an effective rise in production of around 600,000 barrels a day, a figure that comes as a relief to bullish traders who feared a more aggressive increase.
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June 22, 2018 / 7:40 PM

Trump car tariffs could run European convertibles off U.S. roads

(Reuters) - In the years before he became president of the United States, Donald Trump owned luxury German cars. Now, pricey European convertibles are among the vehicles that could become rare on American roads if Trump’s proposal to slap tariffs on imported cars takes effect.

On Friday, Trump threatened to impose a 20 percent import tariff on all European Union-assembled vehicles, a move that could upend the industry’s current business model for selling cars in the United States.

“The tariffs, if they materialise, would call into question the business case for many niche models we currently sell in the United States,” a senior executive at one carmaker told Reuters on Friday. “Convertibles are a particular headache. With Brexit and U.S. tariffs, this market could shrink further.”

The executive said convertibles may not disappear if car makers can forge alliances to share production costs, or design vehicles that are less expensive to build alongside high-volume models.

Because of high pollution and scorching sunshine, convertibles are not selling in Asia, leaving the United States, Britain and Germany as the largest potential growth markets. Potential tariffs between the EU and Britain after Brexit and yet more tariffs between Europe and the United States will shrink the market further, auto executives fear.

German automakers BMW AG, Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) operate assembly plants in the southeastern United States. Those plants concentrate on building high-volume models, mainly SUVs and crossovers and some sedans. But they lack the flexibility to quickly and inexpensively shift production from one model to another in response to rapidly shifting tariff threats, industry experts said.

“The tariff discussion highlights why this flexibility is necessary,” said Ron Harbour, a manufacturing consultant with Oliver Wyman. “Those that don’t have it will suffer.”

A tariff of up to 25 percent would destroy the business case for foreign carmakers to export to the United States models such as the $88,200 (£66,538) Mercedes SL roadster or Audi S5 Cabriolet - and deliver a 4.5-billion euro (£3.96 billion) hit for Germany’s premium manufacturers, analysts at Evercore ISI said.

----Mercedes is expected to sell about 20,000 convertibles this year in the United States and BMW fewer than 16,000, LMC projected.
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June 22, 2018 / 5:38 PM

Harley says EU duties could prompt price hikes

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Harley-Davidson Inc could be forced to raise prices in Europe due to EU tariffs on U.S. goods, hitting buyers of new motorcycle models when they are shipped to dealers later in the year, the head of its central European business said.

Earlier this week, the European Commission said it would start charging import duties of 25 percent on a range of U.S. products from Friday after Washington imposed tariffs on EU steel and aluminium at the start of June.

“Of course this will have an impact on the price. We will try and make it as painless as possible but no company can foot this alone,” Christian Arnezeder told Reuters TV in an interview.

A spokeswoman for the company said the group was still evaluating the potential impacts of EU duties, and that no decisions on pricing had been made.

Harley says it is getting hit by tariffs twice: Once by the EU import duty and once by a rise in raw material prices resulting from U.S. steel tariffs.

For the moment, though, Harley does not need to raise prices as it used the roughly three months since Europe first threatened to impose duties on its motorcycles to prepare.

“We tried to get the current model to Europe as quickly as possible, as far as production allowed for it,” Arnezeder said.

He also said that the anticipation of tariffs boosted demand as customers sought to snap up motorcycles before prices rise.

“You could tell on the market, in talking to dealers, that some customers said, I want to fulfil my dream before any tariffs come into effect,” he said.

Struggling to overcome a slump in U.S. demand, Harley has been aiming to boost sales of its motorcycles overseas to 50 percent of total annual volume from about 43 percent currently. Europe, the Middle East and Africa accounted for little over 21 percent of its global retail sales in the last quarter.

Finally, we close for the week with the top EUSSR power Germany.  President Trump is driving Germany to the far left and far right, though Mrs. Merkel’s misguided Mad Migrant policy also drove many Germans to the right. Below, Der Spiegel offers one perspective on President Trump. Is dying NATO already doomed?

With rising negative publicity as below, President Trump can expect a very hostile trip to NATO in Brussels next month and his follow up trip to GB.

'And did you notice that baby was crying through half of the speech and I didn't get angry? Not once. Did you notice that? That baby was driving me crazy. I didn't get angry once because I didn't want to insult the parents for not taking the kid out of the room!'

President Trump.

Trump's Attacks on Germany The Enemy in the White House

Trump's latest lies are an open attack on the German government and the European Union. This U.S. president was never a partner. He is an aggressive opponent and should be treated as such.
June 20, 2018  03:51 PM
Vladimir Putin operates in the shadows. The Russian president controls a clever disinformation campaign with the aim of upsetting the populations of Western countries, discrediting their institutions, dividing society, influencing elections and ultimately causing the collapse of liberal democracy. Nevertheless, there are still many people who continue to believe that Putin is innocent and that the claims are merely the malicious fabrications of Western intelligence agencies. Is it all just a conspiracy theory?

Regarding Donald Trump's intentions, by contrast, there can no longer be any doubt. Since taking office, he has carried out a scorched-earth policy against multi-lateral treaties of all kinds. He is a man with no interest in foreign policy, seeing it merely as an instrument to pursue his "America First" ideology. He views cooperation as a weakness, the latest proof being the US withdrawal from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

Trump acts quite openly. And now, the American president has turned his attentions toward launching a disinformation campaign against Germany. He is doing so as a way of justifying his morally repugnant refugee policies to the American people.

The heartbreaking scenes at the southern U.S. border, where crying children are brutally separated from their parents for having committed the error of seeking a better life for themselves and their families in the U.S. is heaping pressure on even the most diehard Trump supporters. This zero-tolerance policy turned into a PR disaster, one that Trump now wants to contain by grasping at whatever straws he can - including attacks on Germany.

'As an American, I Feel Deeply Ashamed'

U.S. President Donald Trump says he has put an end to the separation of migrant families. But 2,300 children remain incarcerated with no plan in place to reunite them with their parents. Human rights lawyer Michael Bochenek has visited them.
June 22, 2018  10:46 AM

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Bochenek, you recently spent time in two detention centers for immigrants and their children in Texas. What did you see?

Bochenek: The first one was a facility where people are placed right after apprehension at the border. They call those facilities "hieleras" (freezers) because they're kept unreasonably cold. The cells are very, very small and yet they hold up to 30 people. They have concrete floors and concrete benches lining the walls.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why so cold?

Bochenek: We were never given a good explanation for the cold. The border patrol said they keep the cells at a comfortable temperatute. But some are only around 55 degrees (13 degrees Celsius). You can imagine what that feels like if you're sitting on a concrete bench in wet clothing.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: That first facility housed adults and children together?

Bochenek: Yes, that's a facility intended for short term only. Most people spend 12 to 24 hours there. Only afterwards do the adults and the children become separated.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How does that happen?

Bochenek: The adults are charged in federal court with unlawful entry into the country, which is a misdemeanor. Upon transfer to the court, federal marshals determine that the children are now unaccompanied and sends them on another track. They treat them as if they never arrived with parents at all.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Because once you're charged, your child is separated from you by law. (Trump's executive order instructs the Department of Justice to change that, but it's a cumbersome process that could take some time.)

Bochenek: Yes. The kids immediately go to a different facility. That facility is a large, warehouse-type arrangement with what looked like cages made from chain-link fencing. The migrants who have been there refer to it as the "dark kennel" because they feel like they're being held like animals.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How were the children treated there?

Bochenek: The facilities are incredibly basic. The kids get food and a roof over their heads but they're not getting the kind of care and support you expect for children. I saw a five-year-old boy on a green mat with an emergency blanket made from foil. He looked entirely lost. Nobody had ever spoken to him about what was happening. He hadn't seen his parents in a day or more.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How are these kids dealing with the situation?

Bochenek: They are completely traumatized with no sense of what happens next. There were no caregivers looking out for them, only uniformed guards checking off lists of names. The children are sitting in a detention facility, with the lights on 24 hours a day.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why are the lights kept on? That borders on torture.

Bochenek: They told us it was for security reasons. It certainly doesn't comply with national or international standards in any sense.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What happens with sick children in need of medication?

Bochenek: All their property is taken and stored. Everybody there had paper tickets as receipts. But of course there's always problems getting stuff back in the end. That also applies to medication. I heard from some parents whose child was asthmatic that the necessary medication was locked up with their other possessions.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is there medical care in the detention centers?

Bochenek: There seemed to be no way of ensuring the medical needs of the children. Only some basic medical screening.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: It sounds like a situation that would be tough enough for adults to handle. How can children in their formative years process this, even if they are eventually reunited with their parents?

Bochenek: It is deeply traumatizing. It has a very, very long-term effect on children. Studies have told us over and over again that detention is trauma, that separation is trauma. It doesn't go away even if it's over. The effects stay for a long time.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Where do these kids come from?

Bochenek: They're largely from Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Many of them spoke about about fleeing death threats, violence, rape of women and girls, extortion and other threats of harm by gangs.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How will they be reunited with their parents, if at all?

Bochenek: We do not know. These agencies don't have a good record tracking people. Even before now there were serious problems. Now they created even more problems.
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Our first duty, and our highest loyalty, is to the citizens of the United States. We will not rest until our border is secure, our citizens are safe, and we finally end the immigration crisis once and for all.

President Trump. Twitter 22-06-2018

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May.

DJIA: 24,416 +201 Down. NASDAQ: 7,442 +276 Down. SP500: 2,705 +180 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March and April and continued down in May. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 

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