Monday, 4 June 2018

Trade War Day Four.


Baltic Dry Index. 1156 +66     Brent Crude 76.48

"I never get too attached to one deal or one approach. For starters, I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first."

Donald Trump. Art of the Deal.

It is day four in the “America First” trade war attack on the Rest of the World, and if the aim is US isolation from friend and foe alike, it is going perfectly.

A shocked, and increasingly angry large block of the ROW, are complaining bluntly, looking to form new alliances, and looking ahead to probably the most acrimonious G6 plus 1 meeting ever held, later this week in Canada. If it were any other summit, it would probably be cancelled.

We open with China firming up its response to “America First.”

The final key to the way I promote is bravado. I play to people's fantasies. People may not always think big themselves, but they can still get very excited by those who do. That's why a little hyperbole never hurts. People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. I call it truthful hyperbole. It's an innocent form of exaggeration, and a very effective form of promotion."

Donald Trump. Art of the Deal.

June 3, 2018 / 2:21 AM

Talks end with China warning trade benefits at risk if U.S. imposes tariffs

BEIJING (Reuters) - China warned the United States on Sunday that any agreements reached on trade and business between the two countries will be void if Washington implements tariffs and other trade measures, as the two ended their latest round of talks in Beijing.

A short statement, carried by the official Xinhua news agency, made no mention of any specific new agreements after U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross met Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

It referred instead to a consensus they reached last month in Washington, when China agreed to significantly increase its purchases of U.S. goods and services.

“To implement the consensus reached in Washington, the two sides have had good communication in various areas such as agriculture and energy, and have made positive and concrete progress,” the state news agency said, adding details would be subject to “final confirmation by both parties”.

The United States and China have threatened tit-for-tat tariffs on goods worth up to $150 billion each.
Xinhua said China’s attitude had been consistent, that it was willing to increase imports from all countries, including the United States.

“Reform and opening up and expanding domestic demand are China’s national strategies. Our established rhythm will not change,” it added.

“The achievements reached by China and the United States should be based on the premise that the two sides should meet each other halfway and not fight a trade war,” Xinhua said.

“If the United States introduces trade sanctions including raising tariffs, all the economic and trade achievements negotiated by the two parties will be void.”

There was no immediate comment or statement from the U.S. delegation or from Ross himself.

----State-run Chinese newspaper the Global Times said in an editorial on its website that China needed to prepare for the long haul due to the U.S. propensity for changing its mind and coming up with new demands.

“Tariffs and expanding exports - the United States can’t have both,” it said. “China-U.S. trade negotiations have to dig up the two sides’ greatest number of common interests, and cannot be tilted towards unilateral U.S. interests.”

Xinhua said in a separate commentary that the United States should not test China with any further flip-flops or provocations.
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China Opens Europe Charm Offensive as Trump Stokes Trade Dispute

Keith Zhai and Peter Martin
China is reaching out to Europe with pledges to improve market access for companies in a charm offensive that contrasts with President Donald Trump’s escalation of trade disputes worldwide.
China’s ambassador to the European Union, Zhang Ming, has been touring EU institutions to promote President Xi Jinping’s message delivered to the Boao Forum in April of a “new phase of opening up.” That translates into new opportunities for European companies in finance, clean energy and environmental cooperation, Zhang said.

“Some European friends say that though the current system works, it is not fair enough,” Zhang told the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee on April 23. “China is always ready to listen to the EU’s suggestions on how to make the system better.”

China has been pledging to open up since Xi addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos last year, with few signs of action. However, it now appears to be making a broader push to counter Trump by mending ties with powers from India to Japan and Indonesia.

The conciliatory tone toward Europe is all the more striking as the Trump administration sets a deliberate course of confrontation with some of its closest allies and trading partners. A Chinese official told Bloomberg News in April that the government was considering offering major concessions on trade and investment to the EU and countries such as Japan and Mexico -- all now subject to punitive U.S. tariffs.

Global Realignment

Traditional U.S. alliances are giving way under the pressure of Trump’s America First policies, according to Feng Zhongping, vice president of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).
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June 2, 2018 / 8:01 PM

G7 finance chiefs kick trade dispute to leaders' summit in Quebec

WHISTLER, British Columbia (Reuters) - Finance leaders of the closest U.S. allies vented anger over the Trump administration’s metal import tariffs on Saturday, ending a three-day meeting with a stern rebuke of Washington and setting up a heated fight at a G7 summit next week in Quebec.

In a rare show of division among the normally harmonious club of wealthy nations, the six other G7 member countries issued a statement asking U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to convey their “unanimous concern and disappointment” about the tariffs to President Donald Trump.

The 25 percent steel and 10 percent aluminium tariffs were imposed this week on Mexico, Canada and the European Union after temporary exemptions expired.

“We’re concerned that these actions are actually not conducive to helping our economy, they actually are destructive, and that is consistently held across the six countries that expressed their point of view to Secretary Mnuchin,” Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau said at a news conference after the meeting ended in the Canadian mountain resort town of Whistler, British Columbia.

The statement, written by Canada, also called for “decisive action” to resolve the tariff dispute at a G7 leaders’ summit starting on Friday in Charlevoix, Quebec.

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said that direct discussions between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Trump may help resolve the issue, though Japan has refused to accept import quotas.

“I’ve been to these meetings for a long time. But this is a very rare case where opposition against the United States was unanimous,” Aso told reporters.

Speaking separately after the meeting, frequently referred to as the “G6 plus one,” Mnuchin told reporters that he was not part of the six-country consensus on trade and said Trump was focussed on “rebalancing our trade relationships.”

Mnuchin rejected comments from some G7 officials that the United States was circumventing international trade rules with the tariffs or ceding leadership of a global economic and trading system it largely built after World War Two.

----French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the United States has only a few days to avoid sparking a trade war with its allies and it was up to Washington to make a move to de-escalate the tensions.

Speaking after the meeting, Le Maire said the EU was poised to take counter-measures against the new U.S. tariffs.

----German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said G7 countries also told Mnuchin about their opposition to new U.S. sanctions on Iran, which will affect European companies. Trump announced last month that he was pulling the United States out of an international nuclear agreement with Tehran.

“There were several issues discussed at the G7 over which there was no agreement,” Scholz told reporters. “That’s really quite unusual in the history of the G7.”
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Trade Tensions Intensify With Trump and Allies Set For Showdown

By Andrew Mayeda, Yuko Takeo, and Justin Sink
Updated on 4 June 2018, 03:17 GMT+1
President Donald Trump is headed for a showdown with America’s allies at a Group of Seven summit this week in Quebec, with the European Union and Canada threatening retaliatory measures unless he reverses course on new steel and aluminum levies.

China, meanwhile, is warning it will withdraw commitments it made on trade if the president carries out a separate threat to impose tariffs on the Asian country. While China doesn’t want an escalation in trade tensions, it has the confidence, competence and experience to defend its core interests, according to a commentary published Monday by state-run Economic Daily.

Trump changes his mind often enough that U.S. allies and rivals alike hope he’ll do just that on tariffs in the next few days. An all-out trade war may become unavoidable if he doesn’t.

 “We still have a few days to avoid an escalation. We still have a few days to take the necessary steps to avoid a trade war between the EU and the U.S.,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said after a meeting of G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Whistler, British Columbia.

The White House appeared unfazed by threats from allies. Top economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was “overreacting” in response to the tariffs, and said the blame for any escalation lies with the U.S.’s trading partners. He said Trump is simply responding to decades of trade abuse.
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Canadian aluminum shows its mettle in face of Trump's tariff

Industry analyst says Trump just wrote the Canadian aluminum industry 'a cheque for $600 million'

Evan Dyer · CBC News · Posted: Jun 01, 2018 4:00 AM ET
Trade actions like the ones taken by the Trump administration this week are intended to inflict pain, and the steel and aluminum tariffs levied by the Trump administration are unwelcome developments for both industries in Canada.

But the harm will fall disproportionately on producers of steel, rather than aluminum — and not only because the tariff on steel (25 per cent) is higher than the one on aluminum (10 per cent).

The United States is in a much weaker position to hurt Canadian aluminum producers than it is to punish Canadian steelmakers. Indeed, the likely reason for the lower tariff on aluminum is that the Trump administration realizes it's American consumers, not Canadian producers, who will end up paying for it.

In fact, the top U.S. aluminum industry consultant says the tariff has, so far, actually enriched Canadian aluminum producers.

That's because they responded to the announcement in March by factoring the tariff into their prices, and then essentially pocketed that 10 per cent surcharge during the two months that Canada enjoyed a tariff exemption.

"Trump wrote a cheque for $600 million to Canadian aluminum producers," said Jorge Vasquez of Harbor Aluminum in Austin, Tex., who has served as an adviser to both the U.S. International Trade Commission and the Canadian Trade Tribunal.

In effect, Trump's actions transferred more than half a billion dollars from the U.S. economy to Canada's since March.

The economic folly of the aluminum tariff doesn't stop there.

Key to understanding the counterproductive nature of this move, say industry watchers, is the inherent Canadian advantage bestowed by its abundant hydroelectric resources.

Aluminum is made from bauxite, a raw material Canada has very little of (almost half of the world's reserves are in Guinea or Australia).

The other main input is electricity. Canada — especially Quebec — produces a lot of cheap hydro. The mighty rivers of Quebec are the foundation of Canada's aluminum industry.

U.S. electricity rates are much higher. The price differential for this critical input far outweighs the cost of a 10 per cent tariff.

That's why U.S. industry buys half of its aluminum from Canada — nearly four times as much as it buys from its own producers.

The 14 U.S. aluminum smelters are typically older, smaller, and less cost-efficient than their counterparts in Canada, not to mention the ones in China and Russia. More than half of them are either closed or operating well below capacity.

Just one Canadian smelter — Aluminerie Alouette Inc. in Sept-Iles, Que. — comes close to equalling the entire output of the U.S. aluminum industry.
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In other news, the west’s fraying gets worse with each passing month. If it wasn’t for bad news, Brussels wouldn’t have any news at all.

June 3, 2018 / 9:24 AM

Austrian far-right leader wants EU's Russian sanctions ended

ZURICH (Reuters) - Austria’s vice chancellor and leader of the country’s far-right Freedom Party called for ending the European Union’s sanctions against Russia, days before he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin during a trip to Vienna.

Heinz-Christian Strache, whose pro-Moscow party is junior partner to Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s conservatives, has said in the past he did not favour EU sanctions against Moscow over its backing of rebels in Ukraine.

In an interview with the newspaper Oesterreich printed on Sunday, he sharpened his tone.

“It is high time to put an end to these exasperating sanctions and normalise political and economic relations with Russia,” he was quoted as saying.

The United States, the EU and other countries imposed sanctions on Russia after it annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. But unlike most western European countries, Austria did not expel Russian diplomats over the poisoning in Britain of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter.

Austria’s coalition government says it wants to act as a bridge between east and west, while Kurz has stressed its pro-EU stance is secure.

Strache’s remarks come as a European diplomatic push to address the conflict in eastern Ukraine gain pace.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas has invited his counterparts from France, Russia and Ukraine for a meeting in Berlin on June 11 to discuss the conflict. Maas said last week he was unaware of any discussion within the EU on lifting the sanctions.

Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine have previously held talks in an effort to end the fighting in Ukraine, which has killed more than 10,000 people despite a notional ceasefire.

June 2, 2018 / 11:06 PM

Anti-immigration party wins Slovenia elections

LJUBLJANA (Reuters) - An anti-immigration opposition party won Slovenia’s parliamentary election on Sunday, taking 25 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results.

However, the centre-right Slovenia Democratic Party (SDS) of former prime minister Janez Jansa may struggle to pull together a government as its hardline stance on immigration has left it short of potential coalition partners.

Jansa acknowledged any post-election negotiations would be difficult. “We will probably have to wait for some time ... before serious talks on a new government will be possible,” he told reporters after he cast his own vote.

Voters in a number of eastern members of the European Union - notably Hungary and Poland - have turned to parties which oppose the bloc’s plans under which countries would accept asylum seekers under a quota system.

The SDS, supported by Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, is firmly opposed to such quotas and says most of the money used to support them should be diverted to the security forces.

“(Our) party puts Slovenia, Slovenians first,” Jansa said after preliminary results came out, adding that the SDS is ready for coalition talks with all other parliamentary parties. “We are open for cooperation, Slovenia is facing times which need cooperation,” he said.

----In a highly fragmented ballot, the Adriatic state’s 1.7 million-strong electorate was choosing between 25 parties of which nine made it to the parliament.

----President Borut Pahor has said he plans to give the first chance to form a government to the party with most seats in parliament after the election. However, the SDS would need to link up with at least two other parties to gain a majority.

Turnout was around 51.5 percent compared with 51.7 percent four years ago.

"When people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard. The risk is you'll make a bad situation worse, and I certainly don't recommend this approach to everyone. But my experience is that if you're fighting for something you believe in — even if it means alienating some people along the way — things usually work out for the best in the end."

Donald Trump. Art of the Deal.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

With a trade war starting between the USA and China, is a naval war act 2?

June 3, 2018 / 5:37 AM

U.S. weighs more South China Sea patrols to confront 'new reality' of China

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The United States is considering intensified naval patrols in the South China Sea in a bid to challenge China’s growing militarisation of the waterway, actions that could further raise the stakes in one of the world’s most volatile areas.
The Pentagon is weighing a more assertive programme of so-called freedom-of-navigation operations close to Chinese installations on disputed reefs, two U.S. officials and Western and Asian diplomats close to discussions said.

The officials declined to say how close they were to finalising a decision.

Such moves could involve longer patrols, ones involving larger numbers of ships or operations involving closer surveillance of Chinese facilities in the area, which now include electronic jamming equipment and advanced military radars.

U.S. officials are also pushing international allies and partners to increase their own naval deployments through the vital trade route as China strengthens its military capabilities on both the Paracel and Spratly islands, the diplomats said, even if they stopped short of directly challenging Chinese holdings.

“What we have seen in the last few weeks is just the start, significantly more is being planned,” said one Western diplomat, referring to a freedom of navigation patrol late last month that used two U.S. ships for the first time.

“There is a real sense more needs to be done.”

The Pentagon does not comment on future operations but a spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Christopher Logan, said “we will continue to work with our friends, partners, and allies to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific”.

----U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis warned in Singapore on Saturday that China’s militarisation of the South China Sea was now a “reality” but that Beijing would face unspecified consequences.

Questioned during the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference over whether it was too late to stop China, Mattis said: “Eventually these (actions) do not pay off.”

Last month, China’s air force landed bombers on Woody Island in the disputed Paracel archipelago as part of a training exercise, triggering concern from Vietnam and the Philippines.

Satellite photographs taken on May 12 showed China appeared to have deployed truck-mounted surface-to-air missiles or anti-ship cruise missiles at Woody, while anti-ship cruise missiles and anti-air missiles were also placed on its largest bases in the Spratlys.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Singapore conference, He Lei, of the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences, said China had every right to continue to militarise its South China Sea holdings.

“It is China’s sovereign and legal right for China to place our army and military weapons there. We see any other country that tries to make noise about this as interfering in our internal affairs,” He said.
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“I'm the first to admit that I am very competitive and that I'll do nearly anything within legal bounds to win. Sometimes, part of making a deal is denigrating your competition."
Donald Trump. Art of the Deal.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
No update today, normal service resumes tomorrow.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May.

DJIA: 24,416 +201 Down. NASDAQ: 7,442 +276 Down. SP500: 2,705 +180 Down.
All three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April and May. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash signal. 

 

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