Baltic Dry Index. 1323 -10 Brent Crude 76.59
Elgin Groseclose
While there was
nothing new on the trade war front yesterday, the next key date is July 6th,
the growing trade war continues to drag on global markets. Adding to the drag,
Uncle Scam is allegedly pressuring “allies,” yes those same allies under the
cosh of Trump’s trade war, to stop importing Iranian oil. It’s a funny old
world in Trump Year Two. Oil prices rose as a result, adding to the drag on all
but oil stocks.
In North America,
Mexico is heading for a far left government on Sunday, one promising immediate confrontation
with Trump’s USA. While in the USA itself, the voters seem to be following
Europe and splitting between the far left and the Trumpian right. Time to add
to holdings of fully paid up physical gold and silver, preferably held out of
the reach of the larcenous left, should they gain power in the USA after the
November mid-term elections.
Below, another day
filled with uncertainty.
"Gold bears the confidence of the world's millions, who value it far above the promises of politicians, far above the unbacked paper issued by governments as money substitutes. It has been that way through all recorded history. There is no reason to believe it will lose the confidence of people in the future."
Oakley R. Bramble
June 27, 2018 / 1:26 AM
Asia shares hobbled by trade fears, oil extends gains
SYDNEY
(Reuters) - Asian share markets were under pressure on Wednesday as weakness in
Chinese stocks and the yuan weighed on sentiment in the region, while oil
climbed as the United States pressured allies to stop buying Iranian crude.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS lost another 0.3 percent after touching a two-year trough on Tuesday.
Chinese blue chips .CSI300 eased 0.4 percent to be a whisker above 13-month lows as a settlement of Sino-U.S. tensions remained a distant prospect.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 had been faring better but soon succumbed to risk aversion and fell 0.5 percent.
The fragile mood overshadowed gains in energy stocks made after news broke that Washington was pushing allies to halt imports of Iranian crude.
U.S. crude CLc1 added 18 cents to $70.71, having surged 3.6 percent overnight, while Brent LCOc1 climbed 17 cents to $76.48 a barrel.
The jump in oil boosted the Wall Street energy sector 1.4 percent .SPNY, making it the biggest gainer on the S&P 500.
But the S&P .SPX still only managed to add 0.22 percent overall, while the Dow .DJI rose 0.12 percent and the Nasdaq .IXIC was up 0.39 percent.
Confusion remained the watchword with U.S. trade policy.
The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed a bill on Tuesday to tighten foreign investment rules, spurred by bipartisan concerns about Chinese bids to acquire sophisticated U.S. technology.
More
June 27, 2018 / 4:06 AM
Nikkei drops as ex-dividend trade pressures; airlines, shippers hit by rising oil
TOKYO, June 27 (Reuters) - Japan’s Nikkei share average dropped on
Wednesday morning after higher oil prices hurt airlines and shippers, while
companies’ going ex-dividend added to the market’s broader weakness.
The Nikkei fell 0.5 percent to 22,226.54 in mid-morning trade.
Companies whose business years end in December will go ex-dividend on
Wednesday, after which investors will no longer qualify for the latest dividend
payout.
Market participants estimated the effect of the resulting adjustment to
prices would take 30 points off the Nikkei benchmark index.
Among Nikkei companies going ex-dividend on Wednesday are Japan Tobacco,
Canon and Bridgestone which stumbled 4.0 percent, 3.7 percent and 2.9 percent,
respectively.
Analysts said that investors remain cautious against spiralling global
trade tensions between the United States and its trade partners, which has
dented the market in the past week.
More
Exporters in China’s manufacturing heartland brace for impact of US tariffs
Firms expecting to be hit directly by the duties may raise prices for American buyers, ship products via another country or even relocate their operations
PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 26 June, 2018, 6:02am UPDATED : Tuesday, 26 June, 2018, 6:14pm
Export-oriented
businesses in China’s manufacturing heartland Guangdong say they are bracing
for pain after the United States escalated trade tensions with the country.
With Washington due to start imposing 25 per cent tariffs on the first
batch of Chinese products next week, some exporters are worried that it could
erode their price advantage, and that orders from their US clients will dry up,
according to manufacturers and analysts.
Those who will be hit directly by the duties are scrambling to find ways
to manage the impact, including raising prices for US buyers, shipping products
to another country before sending them to the US, and even relocating
operations to other countries such as India, Vietnam and Mexico, they said.
US President Donald Trump on June 15 said the US would slap 25 per cent
tariffs on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods, with the first wave covering
818 products worth US$34 billion taking effect on July 6. China immediately
retaliated, imposing 25 per cent duties on US$50 billion worth of US goods,
saying its tariffs on a list of 545 US goods worth US$34 billion would also
begin on July 6.
While China’s export machine as a whole should be able to absorb the
blow since it will only affect a small proportion of shipments, the tariffs
could be disastrous for individual companies that rely on the US market for
survival.
Gloria Luo, sales manager at a Guangdong-based manufacturer of
automotive parts and industrial moulds, said her company would be hit hard by
Trump’s measures, since 40 per cent of its sales are to the US and their
products are on the list of those to be targeted.
Luo, who did not want her company identified, said they made moulds for
American clients that would be used by companies like General Motors because
“the price differential between most US-made automotive moulds and our products
is about 30 per cent”.
More
June 27, 2018 / 3:00 AM
China's solid industrial profits tamp trade war worries for now
BEIJING
(Reuters) - Profits at China’s industrial firms rose sharply in May,
maintaining the previous month’s sizzling pace despite signs of slowing
momentum in the world’s second-largest economy and an intensifying trade spat
with the United States.
Beijing is trying to walk a tightrope between supporting economic growth
and tamping down financial risks, with policymakers freeing up more funds for
lending by cutting required reserve levels for banks twice since April.
The latest cut came on Sunday as authorities moved fast to temper any
potential drag on growth from the heated Sino-U.S. trade dispute.
Industrial profits rose 21.1 percent to 607.1 billion yuan (69.57
billion pounds) in May, according to data published by the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday, compared to 21.9 percent growth in April.
For the first five months, industrial firms notched up profits of 2.73
trillion yuan, an increase of 16.5 percent from a year earlier, versus a 15
percent increase in the January-April period.
----Some analysts say the strong profit growth reflects a recovery in output from an easing in a long-running crackdown on pollution that had shuttered production at many factories.
“We would argue that’s (profit growth) mostly a recovery from the
pollution crackdown, which in our figures resulted in quite a significant
slowdown in industrial production during the winter,” said Julian
Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist at Capital Economics.
“If
we’re right then there’s no reason to expect that pick up to be sustained. In
our view, the more medium term outlook is still not great.”
----But activity in some parts of the economy including infrastructure investment and industrial output point to softening economic growth.
While industrial commodity prices have been strong this year, the
intensifying trade dispute between Beijing and Washington has rattled China’s
commodity markets this month as both sides threatened new import tariffs.
The war against pollution, with government-ordered suspension of
production for steel, cement, coal-fired power plans and petrochemical makers
in recent months also add to the challenge for industrial producers ahead.
More
Finally, while the EUSSR is
increasingly driven to the far left and hard right, as politics as usual doesn’t
deliver and crumbles, is this about to happen in the world’s leading debtor,
and Mexico, too? Venezuela here we come. How’s that wall coming along?
Americans now have a reason to want to own some gold.
Rep. Joe Crowley suffers shocking defeat in New York Democratic primary
By Nolan
Hicks Published: June 26, 2018 11:14
p.m. ET
Longtime lawmaker and the head of the Queens Democratic machine, Rep.
Joe Crowley, lost his bid for re-election in a stunning upset to 28-year-old
political newcomer and liberal activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Ocasio-Cortez, who identifies as a Democratic socialist, led Crowley by
15 percentage points — 57% to his 42% — with 78% of the 14th Congressional
District’s precincts reporting.
Both the Associated Press and New York 1 project that Ocasio-Cortez has
an insurmountable lead.
Crowley’s defeat is a political earthquake in New York City politics
where political machines dominate low-turnout elections and incumbents often go
unchallenged.
Crowley — a high-ranking house member who had been considered a
contender to take over leadership from Rep. Nancy Pelosi — was no exception to
that rule. First elected to Congress in 1998, Ocasio-Cortez was the first
primary challenge he had faced in 14 years.
He is the first Democratic congressperson to lose re-election in a primary
since Rep. Stephen Solarz 1992. And Solarz was running for essentially a new
seat after redistricting dismantled his longtime district.
Ocasio-Cortez
was endorsed by the New York City Democratic Socialists of America and recently
told Vogue she was a member of the group because: “When we talk about the word
socialism, I think what it really means is just democratic participation in our
economic dignity, and our economic, social, and racial dignity.”
June 27, 2018 / 6:03 AM
Exclusive: Mexican leftist's lead edges higher before Sunday presidential vote
MEXICO
CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador widened his lead slightly to 26 percentage points ahead of the
country’s election on Sunday, according to a new poll.
Lopez Obrador, who has campaigned on ending corruption and bringing
peace to a country scarred by record levels of gangland violence, had 45
percent of the vote, compared to 19 percent for his nearest rival, Ricardo
Anaya, who slipped by one point, the survey by Mexican pollster Parametria
showed.
In third place, Jose Antonio Meade, the ruling party candidate, edged
one point higher to 15 percent.
The poll conducted from June 20-25 was based on in-person interviews
with 1,000 voters and had a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
The Supremes Give Trump Everything He’s Wanted
And the court’s travel-ban decision is a shame that will last for decades.
by Mark GongloffJudge Orders U.S. to Reunite Immigrant Children and Parents
By Edvard Pettersson and Erik Larson
Updated on 27 June 2018, 06:17 GMT+1
U.S. given two weeks to return youngest children to families
Judge says order is needed in spite of Trump’s executive order
"Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state."
William F. Rickenbacker
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, why Trump thinks he
will win.
Trump: President Xi, is there
anything I can do for you.
Xi: Yes, stand a little out of
my sun.
With apologies to Diogenes.
Why Trump thinks he can win a drawn-out fight over trade with other countries
By Jeffry
Bartash Published: June 25,
2018 2:18 p.m. ET
U.S. economy doing better than most of the rest of the world
Donald Trump has been spoiling for a fight over what he sees as unfair trade for a long time -— and a strong U.S. economy gives him leeway to carry on the battle longer than other countries.The many critics of the president’s trade strategy figured he would back down before tariffs and other U.S. sanctions caused much damage, especially ahead of critical U.S. elections in the fall. What they weren’t counting on was the best economy in years giving a stubborn president more elbow room.
The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 3.7% annual clip in the second quarter, putting it on pace to potentially top 3% growth this year for the first time since 2005.
The Trump tax cuts, higher government spending, an ultralow unemployment rate and the biggest increase in business investment in several years are propelling the economy forward.
“The economy is doing well. You don’t want to see it happen,
but there are a lot of worse times [a trade fight] could happen,” said Gus
Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.
By contrast, the Canadian economy is growing at its weakest rate in two
years, and Europe has suffered a surprising slowdown. Both could post sub-2%
growth in 2018. China, for its part, is enduring a bear market in stocks tied
in part to anxiety over trade.
The U.S. economy is more shielded because so much of what takes place
involves Americans selling and buying from other Americans. Exports represent
about 12% of the American economy vs. nearly 20% for China, one-third for
Canada and almost 50% for Germany.
“Nobody wins in a trade war, but the U.S. is much, much less dependent
on exports as a percentage of our economy,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief
economist at Northern Trust in Chicago. “The strategy is very clear. They are
willing to go a long way with the tariffs because they feel our relative pain
will be lower than it will be for other countries.”
----How long can Trump stick to his guns?
Most economists see little damage to the U.S. in the short run. A protracted fight over trade could cost GDP several tenths of a percentage point, but that’s not a huge deal. Whether the U.S. grows 3% in 2018 or 2.8% doesn’t mean much in the big picture.
Alternative view: Why a major trade war could mean a ‘full-blown recession’
To be sure, some industries would lose out, and consumers and businesses might pay more for some materials or goods affected by U.S. tariffs or foreign retaliation.
Perhaps the biggest cost would be to the momentum generated by Trump’s economic policies. His tax cuts and an aggressive rollback of regulations pushed surveys of consumers and businesses earlier this year to the highest levels in almost two decades.
More
A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another
country-never! Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If
they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they
quit! The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Solar cells combining silicon with perovskite have achieved record efficiency of 25.2 percent
Date:
June 11, 2018
Source:
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne
Summary:
Researchers have combined silicon- and perovskite-based solar cells. The resulting
efficiency of 25.2 percent is a record for this type of tandem cell. Their
innovative yet simple manufacturing technique could be directly integrated into
existing production lines, and efficiency could eventually rise above 30
percent.
In the field of photovoltaic technologies, silicon-based solar cells
make up 90% of the market. In terms of cost, stability and efficiency (20-22%
for a typical solar cell on the market), they are well ahead of the
competition.
However, after decades of research and investment, silicon-based solar
cells are now close to their maximum theoretical efficiency. As a result, new
concepts are required to achieve a long-term reduction in solar electricity
prices and allow photovoltaic technology to become a more widely adopted way of
generating power.
One solution is to place two different types of solar cells on top of
each other to maximize the conversion of light rays into electrical power.
These "double-junction" cells are being widely researched in the
scientific community, but are expensive to make. Now research teams in
Neuchâtel -- from EPFL's Photovoltaics Laboratory and the CSEM PV-center --
have developed an economically competitive solution. They have integrated a
perovskite cell directly on top of a standard silicon-based cell, obtaining a
record efficiency of 25.2%. Their production method is promising, because it
would add only a few extra steps to the current silicon-cell production
process, and the cost would be reasonable. Their research has been published in
Nature Materials.
Perovskite's unique properties have prompted a great deal of research
into its use in solar cells over the last few years. In the space of nine
years, the efficiency of these cells has risen by a factor of six. Perovskite
allows high conversion efficiency to be achieved at a potentially limited
production cost.
In tandem cells, perovskite complements silicon: it converts blue and
green light more efficiently, while silicon is better at converting red and
infra-red light. "By combining the two materials, we can maximize the use
of the solar spectrum and increase the amount of power generated. The
calculations and work we have done show that a 30% efficiency should soon be
possible," say the study's main authors Florent Sahli and Jérémie Werner.
More
"With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people."
F. A. von Hayek
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May.
DJIA: 24,416 +201 Down. NASDAQ:
7,442 +276 Down. SP500: 2,705 +180 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April and
May. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash
signal.
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