Baltic Dry Index. 1442 -03 Brent Crude 74.78
Attributed to Gandhi.
We’re not quite there yet, but far too close to an all out trade war starting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with whom President Trump claims to have an “excellent relationship.”
In reality, neither president would be affected personally by an all out trade war between America and China, but millions of ordinary Americans and Chinese would quickly be affected, followed almost as fast by those in their supply chains in other countries.
I use millions, rather than thousands, because the first effect of an all out trade war is to raise prices for just about everyone, rising unemployment and the next Lehman takes time and comes later.
A massive stock sell-off, doesn’t take much time as everyone wants out of the most vulnerable stocks at the same time. Getting out early always beats getting carried out last, and anyway those heavily leveraged with debt and holding stocks, don’t really get a choice. Though we are not yet at an all-out trade war between America and China, we are at the stage in July 1914, where Germany, Austria, Russia and France were mobilising for war.
Though common sense might still prevail, common sense isn’t in fact common, and it’s very hard to see how either President can back down now, keeping any credibility with their public. While that might not matter much in China, President Trump and the Republicans face the mid-term elections in November. Another U-turn now by President Trump, is probably a U-turn too many, leading to a Republican wipe-out, so any climb down, if there is to be one, has to come from Beijing. How likely is that?
And then there is the Trumpian trade war against NATO and Mexico. When anyone takes on the world, up to now anyone has always been the loser, why would this time be any different?
Below, when elephants fight it’s best to get out of the way.
Well to tell you the
truth in all this excitement I
kinda lost track myself. But being this is an all out trade war between the most
powerful economies in the world and would
blow your economy clean off, you've
gotta ask yourself one question: "Do
I feel lucky?" Well,
do ya, Xi?
President Trump, with apologies to Dirty
Harry.
Trump seeks additional $200 billion in tariffs against China — and threatens even more
Published:
June 18, 2018 11:47 p.m. ET
President ratchets up trade tensions with tit-for-tat retaliation
WASHINGTON —
President Donald Trump threatened to sharply escalate a trade conflict with
China, asking his administration to identify $200 billion in imported goods
from China to be penalized with tariffs.
Trump’s move
comes after Beijing announced it would retaliate in kind to planned U.S.
tariffs on $50 billion in imports from China. The U.S. president’s latest
plans, if carried out, would likely plunge the world’s two biggest economies
into a trade war.
“Unfortunately,
China has determined that it will raise tariffs on $50 billion worth of United
States exports,” Trump said in a statement Monday evening, directing U.S. trade
representative Robert Lighthizer to identify $200 billion more in products for
tariffs of 10%. Should China retaliate to those additional tariffs, Trump
promised to escalate even further by placing tariffs on another $200 billion in
Chinese goods.
Read: Trump reportedly told Apple that tariffs against China would spare iPhones
Also see: Senate rejects Trump deal, votes to reinstate ban against ZTE
“Further action must be taken to encourage China to change its unfair practices, open its market to United States goods, and accept a more balanced trade relationship,” Trump said in the statement.
The president boasted Monday of his “excellent relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and said the two would continue working together on many issues. “But the United States will no longer be taken advantage of on trade by China and other countries in the world,” he said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-seeks-additional-200-billion-in-tariffs-against-china-and-threatens-even-more-2018-06-18
June
19, 2018 / 2:56 AM
China stocks open sharply lower amid escalating trade tensions
SHANGHAI,
June 19 (Reuters) - China stocks opened sharply lower on Tuesday, with the
Shanghai benchmark falling below the psychologically key 3,000 points for the
first time in nearly 21 months, as mainland investors had their first chance to
react to escalating Sino-U.S trade tensions.
Investors
back from Monday’s Dragon Boat Festival holiday dumped stocks, amid signs
Washington and Beijing are on the brink of a trade war.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he was pushing ahead with a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese products, prompting Beijing to respond in kind.
On Monday,
Trump threatened to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese
goods, escalating a tit-for-tat trade war with Beijing.
The CSI300
index fell 1.2 percent to 3,707.23 points at 1:45 GMT, while the Shanghai
Composite Index lost 1.4 percent to 2,981.15 points.
The Hang
Seng index in Hong Kong was down 1.3 percent, to 29,906.79 points.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/china-stocks-open/china-stocks-open-sharply-lower-amid-escalating-trade-tensions-idUKB9N1PJ008
June
19, 2018 / 5:30 AM
SE Asia Stocks-Most markets fall as trade tensions escalate
June 19 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock
markets declined on Tuesday, in line with broader Asia, as U.S. President
Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on Chinese goods
in an escalating trade war between the world's
top two economies.
Trump
warned on Monday that Washington would impose a further 10 percent tariff on
$200 billion of Chinese goods after Beijing's decision to raise tariffs on $50
billion in U.S.
goods, which was in retaliation for U.S.
tariffs announced on Friday.
Trump
said if China increases its tariffs again in response to the latest U.S. move,
"we will meet that action by pursuing additional tariffs on another $200
billion of goods."
"This is causing a little bit of uncertainty in the market. It is
very worrisome for investors and they are staying on the sidelines and avoiding
risky assets such as equities," said
Lexter Azurin, a senior equity analyst at
Manila-based AB Capital Securities.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit its lowest since February as safe-haven assets
such as gold and the Japanese yen gained.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/southeast-asia-stocks/se-asia-stocks-most-markets-fall-as-trade-tensions-escalate-idUKL4N1TL1C8
June
18, 2018 / 2:04 AM
Trade worries stoke safety demand for yen, Swiss franc
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Anxiety about a global trade war spurred demand on Monday for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, while the euro remained under pressure due to a dispute in Germany’s governing coalition and expectations the European Central Bank will hold interest rates steady into 2019.
In a quiet
trading session, the dollar was supported by some safe-haven demand and signals
from the Federal Reserve that it would increase overnight borrowing costs due
to a tightening labour market and rising inflation.
The ongoing
trade dispute between the United States and China knocked the yuan to 6.4600
per dollar, its weakest in five months in the offshore market.
On Friday,
the White House enacted tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods. Beijing
quickly responded with a 25 percent levy on 659 U.S. products, worth $34
billion, ranging from soybeans and autos to seafood.
“It’s tough
to say whether it will spiral further because it’s so fluid. It does weigh on
sentiment at times,” said Eric Viloria, currency strategist at Wells Fargo
Securities in New York. “Our base case is that there won’t be a trade war.”
---- Trump’s latest move, as Washington fights trade battles on several fronts, was unexpectedly swift and sharp.
It was
retaliation, he said, for China’s decision to raise tariffs on $50 billion in
U.S. goods, which came after Trump announced similar tariffs on Chinese goods
on Friday.
“After the
legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses
to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new
tariffs that it has recently announced,” Trump said in a statement on Monday.
China’s
commerce ministry said Beijing will fight back firmly with “qualitative” and
“quantitative” measures if the United States publishes an additional list of
tariffs on Chinese goods, accusing Washington of launching a trade war.
“Such a
practice of extreme pressure and blackmailing deviates from the consensus
reached by both sides on multiple occasions,” the ministry said in a statement.
“The United
States has initiated a trade war and violated market regulations, and is harming
the interests of not just the people of China and the U.S., but of the world,”
it said.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-forex/trade-worries-stoke-safety-demand-for-yen-swiss-franc-idUKKBN1JE01Z
In other news, the
Bank for International Settlements thinks that bitcoin and all the rest simply
can’t work and as a result, they are worthless. Really, who knew that unicorn
ranching’s a bust?
Bitcoin would 'break the internet' if used as the main retail payments network says Bank for International Settlements
Sunday 17 June 2018
Cryptocurrencies
like bitcoin and ethereum are a “poor substitute” for state-backed currencies
and would break the internet if used in their current form at a national scale,
according to a report published today by a powerful central banking body.
The Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) said that the lack of a central institution
backing cryptocurrencies means they risk breaking and proving worthless for
holders, along with a host of environmental and operational issues.
“Trust can
evaporate at any time because of the fragility of the decentralised consensus
through which transactions are recorded,” the report said.
The need for
the decentralised blockchain ledger which records transactions to be updated
eventually by every user has caused congestion as cryptocurrencies have become
increasing popular.
The entire
bitcoin blockchain constitutes around 170 gigabytes of data, meaning that the
average smartphone would be unable to store the blockchain with “a matter of
days” if it started to handle all of a country’s retail transactions, the BIS
said.
“The associated
communication volumes could bring the internet to a halt, as millions of users
exchanged files on the order of magnitude of a terabyte,” the BIS said, in a
hypothetical example.
The explosive rise in the value of bitcoin at the end of last year has put digital currencies firmly on the agenda of regulators and economists around the world, with the Bank of England having examined some of the implications of an as yet unplanned central bank-backed version. Yet arguments for central bank-backed digital currencies “have not produced a strong case for immediate issuance,” the BIS said.
The Basel-based BIS, often known as the central banks’ central bank, raised a catalogue of potential problems, and said trust in digital currencies’ stability, “the essence of good money”, is lacking, in a damning assessment of a technology which many economists believe could transform the monetary system.
Meanwhile, the “vast energy use” required is highly inefficient, with energy used for bitcoin mining alone equal to that of the entire Swiss economy.
However, the underlying blockchain technology could be used in financial settlement, the BIS said, echoing warnings by International Monetary Fund boss Christine Lagarde that the clearing industry will likely see significant upheavals in the coming years.
“Cryptopayment” systems based on sovereign currencies could also have a future, the BIS said, with cross-border payments in particular ripe for disruption by the technology.
Read more: Bitcoin was just the beginning of the imminent blockchain era
“War is peace. Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”
George Orwell, 1984.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, more on that German dirty killer diesel story, that keeps on
growing like Topsy. What did the German
auto execs think was going to happen once the rest of the world found out they’d
set out to cheat them, poison them, and harm their environment, and all with
malice aforethought, for the filthy lucre!
June 18, 2018 / 9:59 AM
Audi CEO arrested in Germany over diesel scandal
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - The head of Volkswagen’s (VOWG_p.DE)
luxury arm Audi was arrested on Monday, the most senior company official so far
to be taken into custody over the German carmaker’s emissions test cheating
scandal.
Munich
prosecutors said Rupert Stadler was being detained due to fears he might hinder
an ongoing investigation into the scandal, plunging Volkswagen (VW) into a
leadership crisis.
News
of the arrest comes as VW’s new group CEO Herbert Diess is trying to introduce
a new leadership structure, which includes Stadler, and speed up the group’s
shift towards electric vehicles in the wake of its emissions scandal.
“As
part of an investigation into diesel affairs and Audi engines, the Munich
prosecutor’s office executed an arrest warrant against Mr Professor Rupert
Stadler on June 18, 2018,” the Munich prosecutor’s office said in a statement.
A judge in Germany has ordered that Stadler be remanded in custody, it
said, to prevent him from obstructing or hindering the diesel investigation.
Audi and VW confirmed the arrest and reiterated there was still a
presumption of innocence for Stadler. Stadler himself was not immediately
available for comment.
A spokesman for Porsche SE, the company that controls VW and Audi, said
Stadler’s arrest would be discussed at a supervisory board meeting on Monday.
VW admitted in September 2015 to using illegal software to cheat U.S.
emissions tests on diesel engines, sparking the biggest crisis in the company’s
history and leading to a regulatory crackdown across the auto industry.
The United States filed criminal charges against former VW CEO Martin
Winterkorn in May, but he is unlikely to face U.S. authorities because Germany
does not extradite its nationals to countries outside the European Union.
The Munich prosecutors said Stadler’s arrest was not made at the behest
of U.S. authorities. The executive was arrested at his home in Ingolstadt, in
the early hours on Monday, they said.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Azelio Demonstrates Game-changing Technology for Low Cost Solar Energy Storage
PRESS RELEASE PR Newswire Jun.
18, 2018, 02:48 AM
Swedish solar company Azelio on June 14th launched a demonstrator of its
unique technology for solar energy storage. The technology is revolutionizing
in its ability to generate clean electricity on demand around-the clock in a
distributed way. It has modularity benefits and is more cost efficient than
competing technologies, including fossil based.
Azelio's unique solution is based on Stirling Concentrated Solar Power
(CSP) with multi-hour Thermal Energy Storage (TES). It can be built in a
modular way from small to very large installations with maintained low cost and
high efficiency. The system is distributed for local production and storage of
heat, which can at any point be withdrawn from the storage and converted into
electricity for 24/7 capacity. The technology is well suited for areas with
weak or non-existent grids. It can thus be used to accelerate the roll-out of
electricity to the more than one billion people in the world that lack that
access as of today, enabling societal growth.
Since the greatest energy recovery is obtained in the conversion phase,
Azelio is using an aluminium alloy as a storage media for its very specific
phase changing characteristics. This storage media does not need refilling to
maintain its efficiency, as opposed to common storage technologies using salt
or water. Azelio's main market focus is initially projects in the size of 500
kW to 20 MW, targeting a gap on the global energy market.
"Showcasing this technology is a great milestone for Azelio. We
have now proven that this world-unique solution works and together with our
partners we will continue the development and commercialization. Low cost and
clean electricity that is made accessible on demand also in remote locations at
all hours of the day is really a game changer," says Jonas Eklind, CEO of
Azelio.
Azelio just secured a significantly oversubscribed private placement of
100 MSEK and is planning for a listing on the Stockholm stock exchange. In
2019, a verification project will be built together with the strategic partner,
Masen (Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy) in Morocco.
Stirling engine
A Stirling engine is a heat engine that operates by cyclic compression and expansion of air or other gas (the working fluid) at different temperatures, such that there is a net conversion of heat energy to mechanical work.[1][2] More specifically, the Stirling engine is a closed-cycle regenerative heat engine with a permanently gaseous working fluid. Closed-cycle, in this context, means a thermodynamic system in which the working fluid is permanently contained within the system, and regenerative describes the use of a specific type of internal heat exchanger and thermal store, known as the regenerator. Strictly speaking, the inclusion of the regenerator is what differentiates a Stirling engine from other closed cycle hot air engines.Originally conceived in 1816 as an industrial prime mover to rival the steam engine, its practical use was largely confined to low-power domestic applications for over a century.[3]
Stirling engines have a high efficiency compared to internal combustion engines,[4] being able to reach 50% efficiency. They are also capable of quiet operation and can use almost any heat source.
The heat energy source is generated external to the Stirling engine rather than by internal combustion as with the Otto cycle or Diesel cycle engines. Because the Stirling engine is compatible with alternative and renewable energy sources it could become increasingly significant as the price of conventional fuels rises, and also in light of concerns such as depletion of oil supplies and climate change. This type of engine is currently generating interest as the core component of micro combined heat and power (CHP) units, in which it is more efficient and safer than a comparable steam engine.[5][6] However, it has a low power-to-weight ratio,[4] rendering it more suitable for use in static installations where space and weight are not at a premium.
----- Stirling engines are frequently used in the dish version of Concentrated Solar Power systems. A mirrored dish similar to a very large satellite dish directs and concentrates sunlight onto a thermal receiver, which absorbs and collects the heat and using a fluid transfers it into the Stirling engine. The resulting mechanical power is then used to run a generator or alternator to produce electricity.[36]
Stirling engines are forming the core component of micro combined heat and power (CHP) units, as they are more efficient and safer than a comparable steam engine. CHP units are being installed in people's homes.[37]
More
“Doublethink
means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind
simultaneously and accepting both of them.”
President
Trump, with apologies to George Orwell.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May.
DJIA: 24,416 +201 Down. NASDAQ:
7,442 +276 Down. SP500: 2,705 +180 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April and
May. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash
signal.
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