Baltic Dry Index. 1347 -26 Brent Crude 73.95
John Kenneth Galbraith. The Great Crash: 1929.
It may not be
the equivalent of Hitler’s blitzkrieg on France or Russia, but today the EUSSR
launched its own trade war back against America. Europe’s bourbon drinkers, and
Harley motorcycle gangs, will soon take a direct hit in their wallets, just as
soon as existing stocks and replacement parts run out. Given all his other
troubles, for more on that scroll down to Crooks Corner, it is doubtful that
President Trump will even notice.
Anything the
EUSSR can do, we can do too, said India, and not so promptly, starting August 4th,
kicked Uncle Scam in the almonds, chick peas and walnuts. And so finally, ever
so slightly, the world set off on the road back to the 1930s.
Still, firms
from Boeing to Daimler, started to issue profits warnings from the trade wars
likely effect on sales and profits, while as always, President Trump threatened
to escalate US tariffs, after all, it’s far easier than trying to find the missing
parents of the 2,500 children trapped in the Texas Trump camps.
Below, can
US stocks make it nine losing days in a row?
Nothing is so admirable in politics as a short memory.
John Kenneth Galbraith
EU tariffs on US goods come into force
1 hour ago
The European
Union (EU) has introduced retaliatory tariffs on US goods as a top official
launched a fresh attack on President Donald Trump's trade policy.
The duties
on €2.8bn (£2.4bn) worth of US goods came into force on Friday.
Tariffs have
been imposed on products such as bourbon whiskey, motorcycles and orange juice.
European
Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said duties imposed by the US on the
EU go against "all logic and history".
India,
meanwhile, has raised taxes on 29 products imported from the US - including
some agricultural goods, steel and iron products - in retaliation for the
wide-ranging US tariffs.
The new
duties will come into effect from 4 August and will affect US almonds, walnuts
and chick peas, among other products.
India is a
top buyer of US almond exports and so the move is expected to hurt farmers in
America.
The Trump
administration announced in March that it would introduce tariffs of 25% on
steel and 10% on aluminium imported into the US.
After being
deferred, the duties on steel and aluminium went ahead on 1 June and affect the
EU, Canada, Mexico and other close US allies, including India.
---- The majority of US goods targeted by the EU, such as tobacco, Harley Davidson motorcycles, cranberries and peanut butter, will now carry a tariff of 25%.
However, the
EU has introduced a 50% duty on goods such as footwear, some types of clothing
and washing machines.
More
June
22, 2018 / 2:03 AM
Asian shares flirt with six-month lows as signs of tariff effects appear
TOKYO (Reuters) -
Asian shares were under pressure on Friday on signs U.S. trade battles with
China and many other countries are starting to chip away at corporate profits,
with oil prices choppy ahead of major producers meeting to discuss raising
output.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was little changed in early trade, stuck barely above its six-month low hit on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei .N225 lost 1.0 percent.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell for an eighth straight session on Thursday and the S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.63 percent, with industrials .SPLRCI and materials shares .SPLRCM hit hard.
Even the high-flying Nasdaq Composite .IXIC shed 0.88 percent.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s gauge of U.S. Mid-Atlantic business activity published on Thursday fell to a 1-1/2 year low.
Economists speculated the ebb in business conditions was the result of escalating tensions between the United States and its trade partners, including the European Union, Canada, Mexico and Japan.
“The Philadelphia Fed’s survey showed a drop in new orders. Investors are concerned that the trade frictions are starting to affect corporate sentiment and their activities,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, chief strategist at Mizuho Securities.
On Wednesday German carmaker Daimler (DAIGn.DE) cut its earnings forecast, saying tariffs on cars exported from the United States to China would hurt Mercedes-Benz sales.
More
Trade fears give Dow its 8th straight loss, Nasdaq has worst session since April
Published: June 21, 2018 4:31 p.m. ET
U.S. stocks closed solidly lower on
Thursday, with major indexes suffering one of their worst sessions of the month
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending its losing streak to an eighth
day as fears of a potential global trade war continued to weigh on investor
sentiment.What did the benchmarks do?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.80% fell 196.1 points, or 0.8%, to end at 24,461.70. The blue-chip average’s losing streak matches its longest since March 2017. If it extends the losing streak to nine sessions on Friday, it will match the longest losing streak since 1978, according to the WSJ Market Data Group.The drop took the blue-chip average below its 50-day moving average, a closely watched gauge of short-term momentum. Thursday was the first time the Dow has closed below that level since May 29.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.63% slid 17.56 points to 2,749.76, a decline of 0.6% that represented the biggest one-day drop for the benchmark index since May 31. Losses were widespread, with eight of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors posting declines. Among the biggest decliners were energy, which sank 1.9%, industrials, down 1.2%, and materials, off 1%.
The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.88% sank 68.56 points, or 0.9%, to 7,712.95 after closing at a record on Wednesday. Thursday represented the biggest one-day percentage drop for the Nasdaq since April 24.
----“We think the trade issue is going to continue to escalate, and that it could last for several quarters, if not years. Growth expectations should be reset currently, and the longer this drags on, the more risk will grow and the more the issue should be factored into expectations,” said Jeff Donlon, managing director of the global strategies group at Manning & Napier, which has $23 billion in assets under management.
“This is
also coming at a time when the Fed is raising rates, meaning there’s a
liquidity-tightening environment that encourages the dollar to strengthen,
which is another headwind. It isn’t just the trade issue, but all the spillover
from all the uncertainty out there that investors need to think about.”
More
Trade concerns could give the Dow its longest losing streak since the 70s
Published: June 21, 2018 4:33 p.m. ET
If the Dow extends losing streak to 9 days on Friday, it would be longest since 1978
The Dow Jones Industrial Average could soon do something it hasn’t done in more than 40 years, but it isn’t a milestone most investors will feel too happy about.The blue-chip Dow DJIA, -0.80% has been struggling for nearly two weeks, pressured in large part by growing fears a series of spats between the U.S. and its trading partners could turn into a full-fledged trade war.
The index fell 0.8% on Thursday, a decline that marks the Dow’s eighth straight daily decline. This matches a stretch of losses that ended in March 2017. Should the index close lower on Friday, extending the streak to nine, that would mark the longest such stretch in just over 40 years.
According to the WSJ Market Data Group, the last time the Dow fell for nine straight trading days was a stretch that ended in February 1978, when the index traded at just under 750. It is at nearly 24,500 currently.
Going back
to 1896, there have only been 10 instances when the average put together 9-day
losing streaks. Should it do so again on Friday, it would mark the 11th. The
Dow’s longest-ever losing streak was a 14-day stretch that ended in August 1941.
The last
time the Dow closed in positive territory was on June 11, when it eked out a
gain of 0.02%. Since then, it has dropped 3.3%, a milder decline than the
nine-day drop seen in 1978, a period over which it fell 4.3%.
Losses in the Dow
have been largely driven by rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump threatened an additional $400 billion in tariffs
against China. A spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said China
would have no choice but to take comprehensive measures in response to the
U.S.’s trade moves, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
More
June
21, 2018
Washington's 'capricious' trade actions will hurt U.S. workers, China warns
BEIJING (Reuters)
- China’s commerce ministry on Thursday accused the United States of being
“capricious” over bilateral trade issues, and warned that the interests of U.S.
workers and farmers ultimately will be hurt by Washington’s penchant for
brandishing “big sticks”.
Previous
trade negotiations with the United States were constructive, but Beijing has
had to respond in a strong manner due to the U.S. tariff threats, commerce
ministry spokesman Gao Feng said.
President
Donald Trump threatened on Monday to hit $200 billion of Chinese imports with
10 percent tariffs if Beijing retaliates against his previous announcement to
target $50 billion in imports. The United States has accused China of stealing
U.S. intellectual property, a charge Beijing denies.
Washington’s
accusations of forced tech transfers are a distortion of reality, and China is
fully prepared to respond with “quantitative” and “qualitative” tools if the
U.S. releases a new list of tariffs, Gao told a regular briefing in Beijing.
China could
hit back at U.S. firms listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average if Trump
keeps heightening tension with Beijing over trade, state-controlled Chinese
tabloid the Global Times said on Thursday.
The 30-stock
Dow, which counts Boeing Co, Apple Inc and Nike Inc among its constituents,
fell 0.17 percent on Wednesday and has declined 0.25 percent this year. By
contrast, China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has slumped 13.1 percent
year-to-date.
“It is
deeply regrettable that the U.S. has been capricious, escalated the tensions,
and provoked a trade war,” Gao said. “The U.S. is accustomed to holding ‘big
sticks’ for negotiations, but this approach does not apply to China.”
White House
trade adviser Peter Navarro, who views China as a hostile economic and military
power, said on Tuesday Trump’s actions were a necessary defense of the “crown
jewels” in the U.S. economy.
None of the
U.S. administration’s efforts to negotiate with Beijing had yielded progress on
changing China’s “predatory” trade practices, Navarro said.
Fending off
criticism from some Western countries, China has said it is willing to boost
imports and widen market access.
In April,
President Xi Jinping told a high-profile Chinese forum that import tariffs
would be cut on goods such as cars, among other promises. In May, Beijing said
it would lower import tariffs on 1,449 consumer goods, starting from July 1.
“I’ve been
honoring my words with actions,” Xi told a group of foreign chief executives in
Beijing on Thursday.
----A
Sino-U.S. trade war could disrupt global supply chains for the tech and auto
industries, sectors heavily reliant on outsourced components, and derail world
growth.
“U.S.
unilateral protection measures will ultimately harm the interests of U.S.
companies, workers and farmers,” Gao told reporters.
More
Boeing May Have a Lot to Lose in a China-U.S. Trade War
Bloomberg News
Updated on 22 June 2018, 01:57 GMT+1
June
20, 2018 / 10:54 PM
China-U.S. trade war hits Daimler profit, may sweep sector
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - Germany’s Daimler (DAIGn.DE)
cut its 2018 profit forecast and BMW (BMWG.DE)
said it was looking at “strategic options” because of a trade war between China
and the United States, sparking fears of a wave of earnings downgrades in the
auto industry.
Daimler said
late on Wednesday that import tariffs on cars exported from the United States
to China would hurt sales of its Mercedes-Benz cars, resulting in slightly
lower earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) this year.
The luxury
automaker, one of the biggest global companies to cut its guidance and blame
trade tensions, previously saw 2018 EBIT rising slightly.
“We do not
believe Daimler will be the only OEM (original equipment manufacturer) to
reduce guidance. Other OEMs are also exposed to similar trends that Daimler
cites in various degrees,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.
German rival
BMW, which also exports sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) from the United States to
China and Europe, reaffirmed its profit forecasts for this year, but said these
depended on worldwide political conditions remaining largely unchanged.
“Within the
context of the current discussion concerning additional tariffs on
international trade, the company is evaluating various scenarios and possible
strategic options,” it said in a statement on Thursday, without elaborating.
Slower sales
of SUVs from the Mercedes-Benz plant in Alabama to China will result in a hit
of around 250 million euros ($289 million), Evercore ISI analysts said.
More
The main purpose of the stock market is to
make fools of as many men as possible.
Bernard Baruch
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
No crooks or bent politicians today. Today the PR blunder of the year,
if not the decade so far. A blunder sure to be played up across Latin America
endlessly, and by every communist and communist sympathiser across Europe ahead
of President Trump’s July visit to NATO in Brussels and follow on trip to GB.
You really couldn’t make this sort of thing up. Only in America, as they say. Someone
needs to fire her chief aide.
Melania Trump wears jacket that says ‘I really don’t care, do u?’ on her way to meet immigrant children in Texas
Published: June 21, 2018 3:54 p.m. ET
Trump’s spokesperson says there is ‘no hidden message’ in the jacket
U.S. First Lady Melania Trump stirred up controversy with a $39 jacket that she wore on Thursday on her way to Texas to tour a facility serving children who have entered the U.S. illegally.Trump was photographed boarding a flight at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland wearing a rain jacket that reads “I really don’t care. Do u?” in white lettering on the back. The jacket retails for $39 online at Zara ITX, +0.58%
In
response to journalists’ inquiries on the jacket, Trump’s spokesperson said in an email: “It’s a jacket. There
was no hidden message. After today’s important visit to Texas, I hope the media
isn’t going to choose to focus on her wardrobe.”
Her
spokesperson then followed that statement up with a tweet that includes the
hashtag “#ItsJustAJacket.”
Just
a jacket, or no, many people responding on Twitter pointed out that perhaps it
wasn’t the wisest choice.
Trump
evidently changed jackets somewhere along the way, having appeared later on
Thursday at the Lutheran Social Services of the South’s Upbring New Hope
Children Center in McAllen, Texas wearing a different jacket.
----President Donald
Trump on Wednesday signed
an executive order stating that families seeking asylum should be detained
together when “appropriate and consistent with law and available resources,” a
reversal after he had previously insisted he had no choice but to separate
families at the border. But it is still unclear when or how the 2,500
children already separated from their families in federal custody would be
reunited.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as
they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Gas flow through tiny atonically flat walls: Atomic-scale ping-pong
Date:
June 20, 2018
Source:
University of Manchester
Summary:
New experiments have shed more light on the gas flow through tiny,
angstrom-sized channels with atomically flat walls
Published in Nature, this new research shows that the channels
allow gas through them at rates that are orders of magnitude faster than
expected from theory. This will not only be important for fundamental studies
on molecular flows at nanoscale but also for applications such as desalination
and filtration.
The reported anomalously-high flow is due to a phenomenon called
'specular surface scattering', which allows a gas to pass through the channel
as if it were not there at all.
To understand this effect, imagine a narrow gap between two parallel
surfaces. If the surfaces are rough, light shone into the gap is scattered
randomly. It would thus take zillions of bounces before the light particles
(photons) emerge in random directions.
Now, if these surfaces are mirrors, the light would only need to a few
bounces before photons emerge on the other side -- as if there were no
obstruction at all. The former scenario is what normally happens in a flow of
molecules through pipes, and the latter is what was found in this study.
The team were able to obtained their results by studying how helium gas
permeates through angstrom-scale slit-like channels with walls made from
cleaved crystals of graphite, hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) or molybdenum
sulphide (MoS2). These materials can all be exfoliated down to a monolayer thickness
and provide atomically flat surfaces that are stable at room temperature and
pressure.
Such angstrom-scale slits are just a couple of atoms in height and were
impossible to fabricate until very recently.
Dr Radha Boya, who was one of the leaders of the study said: "Our
experiments show that surface scattering of helium is highly sensitive to the
atomic landscape. For example, helium permeates much more slowly through
channels made from MoS2 than through those made from the other two materials.
This is because its surface roughness is comparable in height to the size of
the helium atoms being transported and their (de Broglie) wavelength."
Professor Sir Andre Geim added: "Although all the used materials
are atomically flat, some are flatter than others. Helium atoms are then like
tiny ping-pong balls bouncing through a pipe, and depending on whether the pipe
surface is bumpy or smooth, the ball comes out of the other end slower or
faster."
Graphene is the flattest material of the three. MoS2 on the other hand
is so rough for helium atoms that they bounce back randomly like ping-pong
balls from a washboard surface.
The specular scattering can only be explained by taking into account
quantum effects -- that is, the wave-like nature of gas molecules. The researchers
proved this by comparing gas flows of hydrogen and its heavier isotope
deuterium.
They observed that hydrogen flows through the 2D channels significantly
faster than deuterium.
----The work is expected to have major implications for understanding of nanoscale systems. Much of the current understanding comes from classical Newtonian theory, but the experiments prove that -- even under ambient conditions -- some nanoscale phenomena intrinsically involve quantum effects and cannot be explained without taking into account that atoms also behave like waves.
The Manchester team are now looking to investigate size-selective
separation of gases using even thinner channels, which could provide uses in
gas separation technologies.
A stock
broker is someone who invests other people’s money until it’s all gone.
Woody
Allen
Another weekend, and the
first Great Global Trump Trade War weekend with America and Europe firing at
each other. More happily, the second World Cup weekend too. Have a great
weekend everyone.
Sometimes
your best investments are the ones you don’t make.
Donald
Trump.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May.
DJIA: 24,416 +201 Down. NASDAQ:
7,442 +276 Down. SP500: 2,705 +180 Down.
All
three slow indicators moved down in March and have continued down in April and
May. For some a new bear signal, for others a take profits and get back to cash
signal.
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