Friday 31 July 2015

The Blue Moon Arrives.



Baltic Dry Index. 1100 -04   Brent Crude 53.14

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

The bourgeoisie constantly exploits the proletariat for its labour power, creating profit for themselves accumulating capital. However by doing so the bourgeoisie "are its own grave-diggers"; the proletariat inevitably will become conscious of their own potential and rise to power through revolution, overthrowing the bourgeoisie.

Marx or Engels.

It is dress up Friday again, the last trading day of the first month of the second half of 2015. Will Shanghai beat the Fedster’s of Wall Street into second place in dressing up stocks on Blue Moon Friday? What will today’s Blue Moon bring? Good, as in stocks to the moon, or bad, as in stocks get hammered by profit taking, as the  punters and Muppets realize they have to get out first, before the Squids great HFT algo thieves clean them out before the Feds start raising interest rates? I don’t know either, but I do know that I don’t like the recent action. The Great Disconnect has never been more dangerous. The bogus statistics never more bogus. Oh, and did I mention that Greece has been fixed, as in neutered. Bring on Italy! As I write, Shanghai seems to be passing the hot potato to New York.

Commodities, the EUSSR, China, Emerging Markets, are all suggesting a global slowdown is here and it may be a whopper, and not the kind of whopper they know about in central banks. The central bankster, the Great Vampire Squids, all suggest that this time it’s different. The Fed, ECB and PBoC has got everyone covered. “Go on, ignore your eyes, buy more.” 

Yang Chen in China did, investing his “entire life savings—$164,000,” in China’s stocks, at the suggestion of China’s Communist Party. Yes that is the sound of arch-communist, class warrior, Karl Marx spinning in his grave you hear! Then further encouraged, he bought more on margin.  Despite all of the Chinese stock market rigging and fixing, “he now owes roughly what he originally invested after liquidating his portfolio.”  Being a mere farmer and not a bankster or Great Vampire Squid, amazingly he was not bailed out despite asking! “"I don't know what to do. I trusted the government too much. I won't touch stocks again," Yang said.” China’s “China Securities Regulatory Commission” (CSRC) looks like being  a long term holder of supported Chinese stocks. Probably a very long term holder of Chinese stocks until they go all MF Global Corzined.

The only thing to do when a person is wrong is to be right, by ceasing to be wrong. Cut your losses quickly, without hesitation. Don’t waste time. When a stock moves below a mental-stop, sell it immediately.

Jesse Livermore.

Chinese stocks close down after sudden drop

Shanghai's main index recorded a sudden drop at the end of Thursday's trading

By Bloomberg 9:14AM BST 30 Jul 2015
Chinese stocks fell suddenly in the last hour of trading on Thursday, almost wiping out Wednesday’s rally and leaving investors in the dark about reasons for the moves.
The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 2.2pc to 3,705.77 at the close, erasing an earlier gain of 1.5pc
Drugmakers and technology companies led declines. A gauge of 100-day price-swings rose to its highest level in six years.
“There were no major macro developments,” said Gerry Alfonso, a sales trader at Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co. in Shanghai. “The disconnection with fundamentals continues making trading challenging.”
Thursday’s trading was almost a reverse image of the previous day, when the Shanghai Composite surged in the last hour to close 3.4pc higher.
Volatility has increased this week as Monday’s 8.5pc plunge by the benchmark gauge shredded a calm induced by unprecedented state intevention.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11772253/Chinese-stocks-close-down-after-sudden-drop.html

Asia shares edge up, wary of China volatility

Thu Jul 30, 2015 11:39pm EDT
Asian shares inched higher on Friday but were still set to post a loss for the month, while the dollar edged away from highs scaled after U.S. GDP data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates this year.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was up about 0.2 percent at 3:02 GMT, but recorded a loss of 5.9 percent for the month.

Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 was little changed, but saw a gain of 1.4 percent for July, the only Asian market ending the month in positive territory - excluding Australia and New Zealand.

Japanese economic data published before the open contained some worrying signals, including a drop in household spending, a fall in Tokyo-area consumer prices and a rise in the June jobless rate.

Investors also awaited more earnings from blue-chip companies and looked for signs of whether China's volatile stock markets were starting to take a toll on its economy.

In the latest of several attempts to bolster China's stock market, the securities regulator clamped down on trading accounts that had been found to have abnormal bids for shares or bid cancellations.

China's CSI300 index .CSI300 fell 0.4 percent, contributing to a 15 percent slump this month. The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC lost 1.2 percent, extending July losses to 13.4 percent.
More
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/31/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0Q501G20150731

China watchdog probes automated trading as stocks slip again

Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:46am EDT
China's securities watchdog is investigating the impact of automated trading on share markets, as authorities step up a crackdown on what they regard as heavy speculative selling that could destabilize the world's second-largest economy.

China's main share markets, both among the world's five biggest exchanges, have lost around 30 percent of their value since mid-June, but authorities have been flailing in efforts over the past three weeks to prevent a further sell-off.

Fearing the turmoil could spill over into the wider economy, which had already been cooling, the ruling Communist Party has enlisted the central bank, the state margin-lender, commercial banks, brokers, fund managers, insurers and pension funds to buy up shares, or help fund their purchase, to keep the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets afloat.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the markets regulator, has also stepped up scrutiny of share traders and their clients, launching investigations of "share dumping" and declaring war on "malicious short-sellers".

The CSRC announced automated trading as the latest focus of its investigations on Friday, as share markets lost more ground.
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Chinese farmer invested life savings in stocks, lost it all

Tom DiChristopher Tuesday, 28 Jul 2015 | 12:42 PM ET
Investors throughout China are waiting for the government to step in and buy more stocks so they can close out their positions, but many are losing hope.
Yang Cheng, a farmer in the remote town of Panzhihua in southwest China, was one of many Chinese citizens who started buying up stocks after the government began promoting equity investment as part of a larger plan to expand the country's economy.
"When the market climbed to 4,000 points, I realized the risks were pretty high. However, public opinion on government policies affected my judgment," he told CNBC.
But after sinking his entire life savings—$164,000—and his relatives' money into shares of a local mining company, he lost everything. Not only that, but Yang's brokerage convinced him to borrow more than $1 million to buy stocks on margin. He now owes roughly what he originally invested after liquidating his portfolio.

Like many Chinese, Yang traveled to the office of the leadership and stock market regulator in Beijing to seek help, but was turned away.

"I don't know what to do. I trusted the government too much. I won't touch stocks again," Yang said.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said late Monday that the government will increase purchases of stocks in an effort to support the equity market, while the central bank injected cash into money markets and hinted at further monetary easing.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/chinese-farmer-invested-life-savings-in-stocks-lost-it-all.html

Below, who knew? Now she tells us! Too late for poor Mr. Cheng, but that’s par for the course with the French run, scandal prone, IMF. There never was such a thing as too much intervention in France, except at Calais.

China 'still learning how stock markets work', says IMF chief

Christine Lagarde says China's stock market had seen an 'extraordinary' rise before it dropped last week

By Telegraph staff, and agencies 5:08PM BST 29 Jul 2015
China's stock market has slumped because investors and authorities are still learning about how public indices work, the head of the IMF has said.

"It's a relatively young market, and there is an element of a learning curve" among investors, companies and the authorities, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said.

However, Ms Lagarde believes China can weather the turmoil on its main stock exchange, which fell 11pc between Friday and Tuesday.

"We believe that the Chinese economy is resilient, and strong enough to withstand that kind of significant variation in the markets," she said.

The index rebounded modestly on Wednesday, and are still up 80pc from a year ago
 ----Ms Lagarde remarked that it should not be surprising that Chinese authorities had moved to restrain the steep daily falls in the capital markets.
China's securities regulator announced probes into share "dumping" and pledged to buy stocks to calm the market, while the central bank hinted at more policy easing.
"The fact that they want to maintain a level of liquidity as well that is commensurate with an orderly process is also quite good."
She pointed to "the very significant reforms" that Beijing is undertaking in the economy even as the authorities try to calm the turmoil in financial markets.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11771308/China-still-learning-how-stock-markets-work-says-IMF-chief.html

In EUSSR news, more of the same. The never ending fiasco, never ends. Germany just got thumped by the French run IMF. Grexit is back on the table again. Brexit keeps looking better with each passing week. Who wants to live as a serf in a German run austerity union, except President Obama?

Greece crisis escalates as IMF witholds support for a new bail-out deal

Talks over new rescue package are derailed after less than a week as IMF seeks explicit assurances over debt relief from the Europeans

Talks over an €86bn bail-out for Greece have been thrown into turmoil after just four days as the International Monetary Fund said it would have no involvement in the country until it receives explicit assurances over debt sustainability.

An IMF official said the fund would withhold financial support unless it has guarantees Greece can carry out a "comprehensive" set of reforms and will be the beneficiary of debt relief from its European creditors.

The comments came after the IMF's executive board was told that the institution could no longer continue pumping more money into the debtor nation, according to a leaked document seen by the Financial Times.

The Washington-based Fund has been torn over its involvement in Greece - its largest ever recipient country.

The world's "lender of last resort' said it would continue talks with its creditor partners and the Leftist government of Athens, but made it clear the onus of keeping Greece in the eurozone now fell on Europe's reluctant member states.

"There is a need for difficult decisions on both sides... difficult decisions in Greece regarding reforms, and difficult decisions among Greece's European partners about debt relief," said the official.

"One should not be under the illusion that one side of it can fix the problem."

The delay could last well into next year, forcing the other two-thirds of the Troika - the European Central Bank and European Commission - to bear the full costs of keeping Greece afloat.

----But Europe's creditor powers - led by Germany - have resisted write-offs, insisting that talks on debt relief can only proceed once the Greek government has satisfied demands to raise taxes, cut pensions spending and privatise assets.

For all Germany's obstinacy, Berlin is determined to keep the IMF involved in a new rescue package. The Bundestag voted to re-start talks over a new Greek deal on the promise that that IMF would remain part of the Troika.

The IMF's position now jeopardises the tentative basis for a new three-year package thrashed out by lenders over a tortuous weekend of talks in mid-July.

----The IMF's position is the latest in a long-line of reports questioning its involvement in an economy with an "unsustainable" and unpayable debt mountain.
More

Blue Moon – second July full moon – on July 31

Blue Moon coming! As seen in the photo above by Patrick Casaert – whose community on Facebook is called La Lune The Moon – the moon has been waxing to full this week. Patrick used a blue filter to create his moon photo, and if you see the moon in tonight’s sky, you’ll see it’s nearly full … but not at all blue in color. Yet, as the second full moon for the month of July, many will call it a Blue Moon.

Calendars will say that this month’s second full moon falls tomorrow – on July 31, 2015. However, for much of North America, the moon will turn precisely full before sunrise on July 31.

Thus many will call tomorrow’s full moon – and probably tonight’s nearly full moon as well – a Blue Moon.

Will either of these moons be blue in color? Nope. The name Blue Moon has nothing to do with the color blue. It’s just a name for the second full moon in a calendar month.
More
http://earthsky.org/tonight/blue-moon-second-july-full-moon-to-occur-on-july-31?utm_source=EarthSky+News&utm_campaign=49db8f167f-EarthSky_News&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c643945d79-49db8f167f-394244537

Marx was exiled to London in 1849 and lived the rest of his life there. Much of his time was spent in the reading rooms of the British Museum (which then housed the British Library collection) - this is his entry in the 1873 admissions register. There he worked on his most celebrated book Das Kapital. It puts forward his theory of political economy, with its celebrated phrase 'From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs'.
http://www.bl.uk/learning/timeline/item106263.html

The British Library has much to apologise for. Why did they give him an admission ticket? Look at what he/they just did to poor Mr.Cheng.

British Museum Reading Room

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Museum_Reading_Room

All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.

Jesse Livermore.

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 56.60 Moz, Eligible 119.67 Moz, Total 176.27 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
The only thing dangerous in the next article is the fallen former guru himself. From the fiat money mess he made running the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money for Mammon, he now proposes to set off riots by taking back “entitlements” in the most heavily armed nation on the planet. On fiat, bailouts and bonuses for banksters, the work house for everyone else. It makes the UK’s Irish potato famine policy look enlightened. On fiat money, communist money, all decisions are political. Stay long fully paid up physical gold and silver.
"[A] government cannot become insolvent with respect to obligations in its own currency. A fiat money system, like the ones we have today, can produce such claims without limit."
Alan Greenspan.

Alan Greenspan: This is 'extremely dangerous'

14 Hours Ago
While markets hone in on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy hints, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan sees a bigger economic irritant—government spending.

On Wednesday, Greenspan decried a rise in entitlement costs, which he contended have pressured the U.S. economy.

"To me the discussion today shouldn't even be on monetary policy it should be on how do we constrain this extraordinary rise in entitlements," he said in a CNBC "Closing Bell" interview, calling the trend "extremely dangerous."

Social expenditures in the U.S. were 19.2 percent of gross domestic product last year, up from 15.5 percent in 2005, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Still, the portion of GDP spent by the U.S. on social benefits last year was below the OECD average of 21.6 percent. The majority of member nations individually shelled out a higher percentage of GDP, as well.

Greenspan was the head of the U.S. central bank from 1987 to 2006. He declined to characterize the Fed's policy-making committee's assessment of the nation's economy after its most recent meeting Wednesday.

We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.

Alan Greenspan.
 

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? A quantum computer next?

New material combines photons for big solar energy gains

By Graham Templeton on July 28, 2015 at 8:30 am
An innovativehttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/lb_icon1.png new approach to solar energy from University of California Riverside could dramatically increase the amount of light available to contemporary solar panel designs. Rather than widening the absorption spectrum of the solar panels themselves, this new study looked at taking currently inaccessible infra-red light and turning it into visible light. They hope that by directing this newly fabricated light onto conventional solar panels, the efficiencyhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/lb_icon1.png of solar power could be greatly improved, for an affordable price.

Infrared light currently passes straight through most silicon solar cell technologies, representing a substantial inefficiency in generating electricity from sunlight. Much of solar researchhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/lb_icon1.png has worked to directly convert infrared light to electricity, but such technologies change the transistor design, and thus the manufacturing process for solar panels. Their impacts tend to be limited by cost concerns, more than anything else.
These researchers chose to accept the absorptive abilities of current silicon transistors, and instead looked to make the light conform to the panels. They created an all-new hybrid material that takes two photons of 980-nanometer infrared light shone onto it and “up converts” them into one photon of 550-nanometer orange/yellow light. This photon has almost double the energy of the originals and, more importantly, it exists in a form that existing solar panels can absorb.
By changing the incoming sunlight into silicon’s favorite for absorption, the material could improve solar panel efficiency by as much as 30%. And while the costs of the material itself are not yet known, there is huge potential in offeringhttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/lb_icon1.png such large improvements without the need to completely reinvent the transistor manufacturing process.
More

Another weekend, and a great weekend too, outside of hellholes like German ruined Greece, Washington ruined Ukraine, Calais, and any place in the Middle East you care to name. It’s not much fun getting “felt by the Fuzz” in your car in America either, but America’s top man is on the case, when he’s not on the golf course or off lecturing Africa. Have a great weekend everyone.

The true measure of a career is to be able to be content, even proud, that you succeeded through your own endeavors without leaving a trail of casualties in your wake.

Alan Greenspan.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: +98 Down. NASDAQ: +192 Down. SP500: +127 Down. 

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