Friday, 17 July 2015

Iffy Euro – ECB.



Baltic Dry Index. 1009 +58    Brent Crude 57.06

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

The whole history of civilisation is strewn with creeds and institutions that were invaluable at first and deadly afterwards.

Walter Bagehot.

Forget “whatever it takes.” Goldie’s man running the ECB has gotten cold feet. Earlier this week it was the IMF bailing out from the wealth and jobs destroying dying euro project. Yesterday it was Mario Draghi, the ECB’s big banana heading towards the exit! The Bilderberger euro project to replace the continental Europe hated dollar, is dying before our eyes every day. No one in continental Europe trust anyone else. No one in Club Med trusts Germany to do the right thing when they need a bailout. Germany trusts no one in Euroland to pay back their debt. Germany still seems to be orchestrating a Greek exit from the euro. Draghi now seems to think that this will happen followed by others. After weeks of dire euro news, the only good news around is the unnoticed rebound in the Baltic Dry (shipping) Index back above 1000.

Below, continental Europe on the verge of a nervous breakdown! Note, Marketwatch seems to misstate below the ECB’s ELA assistance to Greece. Later today it is likely to confirm that ELA funding to Greece will rise by 7 billion euros to about 900 billion euros.

Mario Draghi issued a resounding indictment of the ‘fragile euro’

Published: July 16, 2015 12:25 p.m. ET
Whatever happened to doing “whatever it takes?”

That was European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s pledge to hold the European shared currency together back in 2012, as the market was panicking about the possibility that a fiscally stressed European country might be forced out of the bloc.

While Draghi had previously proclaimed that the euro was “irreversible,” the ECB chief’s comments on Thursday were much less emphatic, with Draghi stating that it wasn’t up to the central bank to determine whether or not Greece remains part of the shared currency.

“This is a damning indictment of Europe’s single currency area from the individual who almost single-handedly averted a breakup of the bloc three years ago,” Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, a London-based advisory firm, in a note.

Had Draghi talked similarly in 2012, “all hell would have broken loose in the markets,” Spiro said.
On Thursday, the market either didn’t notice Draghi’s rhetorical shift or didn’t care to fret about it, with the focus squarely on shoring up Greece’s teetering banking sector.

According to a tally by Danske Bank, 18 out of the 23 questions Draghi took during his news conference were about Greece. Draghi used the opportunity to emphasize that the ECB always operated under the assumption that Greece would remain a part of the euro.

The most crucial news was the ECB president’s decision to raise emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks by 900 billion euros ($982 billion) without toughening the rules governing the collateral the banks must post in return for the funding. That gives Greek banks, which have been closed for more than two weeks, some breathing room, though capital controls are likely to remain in place for some time.
More
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mario-draghi-issued-a-resounding-indictment-of-the-fragile-euro-2015-07-16

EU Said to Agree On Balance to 7 Billion-Euro Greece Loan

July 16, 2015 — 10:45 AM BST Updated on July 16, 2015 — 1:03 PM BST
Euro-area finance ministers authorized a 7 billion-euro ($7.6 billion) bridge loan to Greece, according to Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny, paving the way for a third bailout that may allow Europe’s most indebted nation to stay in the common currency.

The financing deal is expected to be announced on Friday after national parliaments have voted on the aid accord that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras pushed through his legislature on Monday, according to an official with knowledge of the discussion, who asked not to be named because the talks are private. Member states also must consider whether to move ahead with the full bailout proposed for Greece.

The short-term financing is needed so that Greece can meet a 3.5 billion-euro payment due to the European Central Bank on Monday, and keep the country afloat while Tsipras negotiates the details of a three-year bailout of as much as 86 billion euros. That aid package would come from the euro-area’s permanent firewall fund, the European Stability Mechanism.

“I would expect that Mario Draghi will consider now turning on the tap to some extent of emergency liquidity to keep the banks in Greece having money for their customers,” Kenny said in an interview with Irish broadcaster RTE, referring to the president of the ECB.

The bridge loan will come from the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism, the European Union’s rescue fund, the official said. The EU is still working on safeguards to shield non-euro nations from Greek bailout risk, European Commission spokeswoman Annika Breidthardt told reporters in Brussels.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-16/euro-area-said-to-agree-in-principle-to-eu7-billion-greece-loan

German finance minister Wolfgang Shaeuble on Grexit: Perhaps temporary exit from the Eurozone would be better for Greece

16 July 2015 10:04am
Never one to mince his words, German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has suggested that, despite the Greek parliament's overwhelming support for its creditors' reform proposals, a "temporary Grexit" might be a better option.

This morning Schaeuble told Deutschlandfunkradio that "perhaps [Grexit] would be the better way for Greece".

Given the fact that negotiating a deal took not only six months, but a substantial amount of work on Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' part when it came to persuading his parliament to vote for the measures, that's going to go down like a ton of bricks with his Eurozone counterparts.

He also hinted at supporting the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) assertion that Greece's lenders will need to take significant writedowns, or its debts will become unsustainable.

 "We will now see in the negotiations whether there is even a way to get to a new programme taking into account (Greece's) financing needs, which have risen incredibly," he said.

http://www.cityam.com/220297/german-finance-minister-wolfgang-shaeuble-grexit-perhaps-temporary-exit-eurozone-would-be?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=Email&utm_campaign=150716_CMU

Desperate Greeks scour UK for jobs to escape debt crisis

Recent developments in the debt crisis have exacerbated raging unemployment in the stricken country and prompted a rush in online searches for jobs in the UK

The number of Greeks looking for jobs in the UK has soared in the last two weeks as the debt crisis comes to a head, placing further pressure on the country's crippling unemployment levels.

CV-Library, the UK's largest jobs board, said that traffic to its website from Greece reached a record high in July, eclipsing June's searches after only two weeks.

Projections from the recruitment site show that the number of visitors in July is on track to double last month's traffic, as Greek people grasp at employment opportunities overseas.

Greece has been in the clutches of a job crisis for years as it struggles to recover from the global financial meltdown. It has the highest unemployment and underemployment rates in Europe at 26.5pc and 72.1pc respectively.

But the situation has worsened in recent weeks after the country failed to meet a deadline at the end of June to repay €1.6bn worth of debt to the IMF.

The country's leftist Syriza-led government has since imposed capital controls, closing banks and limiting daily withdrawals from ATMs and pension funds. It has accepted even tougher bail-out measures despite the Greek public voting overwhelmingly to reject creditors' demands that more austerity measures be introduced.

"It’s alarming but not surprising that interest from Greek workers looking for jobs in the UK is increasing so rapidly," said Lee Biggins, managing director of CV-Library. "There is clearly an interest amongst Greek workers to look for work outside of Greece, in anticipation of what lies ahead."

Greek web traffic to CV-Library over each of the last two weeks has surpassed the year's previous peak in late January.

"Historically, job searches start to slow [at the start of] summer, so the fact that these numbers have exceeded the highest number in January, the busiest time of year, shows that this movement is clearly related to the current situation in Greece," Mr Biggins said.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/11741492/Desperate-Greeks-scour-UK-for-jobs-to-escape-debt-crisis.html

Greece should seize Germany's botched offer of a velvet Grexit

The Versailles terms imposed on Germany in 1919 were vindictive and narrow-minded, but not beyond reach. Greece is being told to do the impossible

One day we will learn the full story of what went on at the top levels of the German government before the villenage of Greece last weekend.

We already know that the EMU accord - if that is the right word – is an economic and diplomatic fiasco of the first order. It does serious damage to the moral credibility of the EU but resolves nothing.

There is not the slightest chance that Greece will be able stabilize its debt and return to viability under the Carthaginian settlement imposed on Alexis Tsipras - after 17 hours of psychological “water-boarding”, as one EU official put it.

The latest paper by the International Monetary Fund has torn away the fig-leaf. The country needs a 30-year moratorium on debt payments and probably outright subsidies to recover from the devastation of the past six years.

Instead it gets pro-cyclical fiscal contraction of 2pc of GDP by next year.

Some are already comparing the terms to the Versailles Treaty but this does not quite capture the depravity of it. The demands imposed on Germany in 1919 were certainly vindictive and narrow-minded – as Keynes rightly alleged – but they were not, on the face of it, beyond reach.

----What Greece is being asked to do is scientifically impossible. Almost everybody involved in the talks knows this. Yet the lie goes on because the dysfunctional nature of EMU politics and governance makes it impossible to come clean. The country is dishonestly kept in a permanent state of crisis.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11744305/Greece-should-seize-Germanys-botched-offer-of-a-velvet-Grexit.html

"The paper standard is self-destructive."

Hans F. Sennholz

At the Comex silver depositories Thursday final figures were: Registered 58.96 Moz, Eligible 119.45 Moz, Total 178.41 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
No crooks today just yet more sign of mounting global economic and political trouble. Time to head for the hills.

North American rail layoffs on the rise amid slump in cargo and profits

THOMAS BLACK Bloomberg News
Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2015 4:17PM EDT Last updated Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2015 11:33PM EDT
Additional railway layoffs loom on top of more than 1,000 job cuts this year as North American carriers including Union Pacific Corp. and Canadian National Railway Co. try to cushion a second-quarter earnings slump.
The reason: Shipments of grain and energy products are weakening, with carloads in North America falling 2.3 per cent in the three months ended June 30, according to Bloomberg data based on Association of American Railroads (AAR) statistics.
The cargo decline reverses the patterns of 2014, when railways hired as fast as possible to handle a record grain harvest, oil gushing at $100 (U.S.) a barrel and a surprise rebound in coal. The companies may have been too slow to adjust when times turned bad – putting jobs on the line now.
----Rail analysts and investors could start getting a glimpse of the new reality as soon as Tuesday, when CSX Corp. reports second-quarter earnings. It will be the first of the major North American carriers to release results. “Selective furloughing” was part of the railway’s strategy, chief financial officer Fredrik Eliasson said in a May 14 presentation.
More than 1,000 workers likely will be furloughed at Union Pacific, the largest U.S. railway by sales, Mr. Seidl said. In May, CN said it had laid off 400 people and Kansas City Southern cut 110 jobs.
BNSF Railway Co., the railway owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., has made cuts this year to adjust to lower cargo volumes, said Mike Trevino, a spokesman. He declined to provide numbers.
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China warns Manila over repairs to ship on Spratly reef outpost

BEIJING  Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:26am EDT
China on Wednesday condemned the Philippines for doing repairs to a rusting ship it ran aground on a South China Sea reef, demanding Manila remove the vessel while adding that Beijing "reserved the right to take further measures".

The Foreign Ministry did not elaborate on those measures in a statement that called Manila the "real regional trouble maker" for reinforcing the ship, which has sat on Second Thomas Shoal since 1999. The wording of the warning mirrors what China has said in the past when it's particularly angry with other countries.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that the Philippine navy had been using wooden fishing boats and other small craft to move cement, steel and welding equipment to the BRP Sierra Madre since late last year for repair work aimed at stopping the ship from breaking apart.

Manila regards Second Thomas Shoal, which lies 105 nautical miles (195 km) southwest of the Philippine region of Palawan, as being within its 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone. China, which claims virtually all the South China Sea, says the reef is part of its territory.

The 100 meter-long (330-foot) BRP Sierra Madre, a tank landing ship, was built for the U.S. Navy during World War Two.

It was eventually transferred to the Philippine navy, which deliberately grounded it on Second Thomas Shoal to mark Manila's claim to the reef in the Spratly archipelago of the South China Sea. A small contingent of Philippine soldiers are stationed onboard.

China's Foreign Ministry said it was "extremely dissatisfied with and resolutely opposed to" the repairs.

Manila had promised many times to remove the ship, but the repair work showed it was "two faced", it said.
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Japan military chief says South China Sea surveillance possible

Washington |  Thu Jul 16, 2015 7:54pm EDT
Japan's top military commander, Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano, said on Thursday he expected China to become increasingly assertive in the South China Sea and it was possible Japan would conduct patrols and surveillance activities there in the future.

Speaking in Washington, Kawano said there had been "talk" of Japan conducting such patrols in the South China Sea, including anti-submarine activities.

"But our position on this is that we consider this as a potential future issue to be considered depending on how things pan out,” he told the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

Kawano earlier met with his U.S. counterpart, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and discussed implementation of updated bilateral defense guidelines agreed this year, a joint statement said.
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Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? A quantum computer next?

Today, tires for the coming EV revolution.

There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.

Nicolo Machiavelli

Hankook Tire’s Future-oriented Tire Succeeds High-speed Driving without Air Pressure

July 13, 2015 (Seoul, Korea) – Hankook Tire announced that it had successfully completed its ride and handling tests for its latest non-pneumatic tire (NPT) Hankook iFlex, which is made using eco-friendly materials.
The iFlex is the latest example of Hankook Tire’s continued technology leadership. The company’s ability to push the boundaries of driving capabilities is a direct result of its robust foundation in R&D as well as the following world-class technological prowess.
As the name suggests, NPTs do not require air pressure. Hankook Tire has continued researching on the new tire technologies particularly for NPT since 2011. Crucially, the company has been working toward the development of NPTs that achieve all of the practical benefits of conventional air pressure tires while simultaneously enhancing their high speed tire characteristics. The iFlex, which is the fifth NPT concept tire that Hankook Tire has released, is the culmination of that effort.
The company put the iFlex through a serious of rigorous tests designed to push the tires to their limits in five categories: durability, hardness, stability, slalom (zigzag) and speed. In the speed test, the electric car equipped with iFlex tires reached 130km/h. The impressive results in all five categories demonstrated that the NPTs could match conventional tires in terms of performance. At the same time, these results are expected to help the company solidify its position as a global top-tier tire company and, give new momentum to its future-oriented R&D capabilities.
Construction of the iFlex is centered on a new type of uni-material designed to maximize the tire’s eco-friendly potential. From a manufacturing standpoint, the material used during product construction significantly enhances the energy efficiency. From a product standpoint, the material allows the iFlex to be recycled with greater ease. Hankook Tire then went one step further, integrating new tire construction techniques to simplify the manufacturing process from eight stages to just four, thus further reducing the company’s carbon footprint.
“The Hankook iFlex’s ability to deliver the perfect high-speed driving performance is the result of Hankook Tire’s longstanding commitment to independently developing progressive, innovative tire technology. Aiming to strengthen our technological leadership in the global tire market, we will continue to develop cutting edge eco-friendly and future-oriented tires” says Mr. Seung-Hwa Suh, Vice Chairman and CEO of Hankook Tire.
Hankook Tire currently has a number of projects underway that are centered on developing future-oriented tire products. For example, ‘The Next Driving Lab,’ a brand campaign that was initiated in 2013, is operated primarily to let talented engineers and designers bring to life their wildest futuristic dreams for innovative driving experiences. Likewise, Hankook Tire collaborates every two years with world-renowned design schools to host the ‘Design Innovation’ project. This project allows students to propose and study future tire concepts designed at generating safer, more reliable, and more advanced tire performances.

http://www.hankooktire.com/global/about-hankook-tire/media-center/press-room.54727.html

Michelin opens first plant dedicated to production of airless tires

By David Szondy - November 25, 2014
A punctured tire is the definition of a bad day, but Michelin is taking some of the sting out as it announces the opening of its newest North American plant, which the company says is the first in the world dedicated to the manufacture of airless tires called "Tweels". The US$50 million plant will be used to make the Michelin X Tweel Airless Radial Tire and others for commercial and agricultural applications.
The Tweel is a combined tire and wheel that was introduced by Michelin as a concept in 2005. It consists of a molded-tread rubber band similar to that of a conventional tire mounted on a steel shear beam that acts as a contact patch. Between this and the hub is a series of energy-absorbing polyurethane spokes connected to an inner rim structure, which can be adjusted based on the expected loads with the tread also able to be customized.
According to Michelin, the Tweel lasts three times as long as conventional tires. Unlike conventional tires, the tread can be replaced without having to replace the entire unit, so there is less waste of material. In addition, since the design doesn't need to retain air, it can be made to shed water quickly, which reduces hydroplaning. The company says that the Tweel is easy to install, damage resistant, and provides increased operator comfort.
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Just because something doesn’t do what you planned it to do, doesn’t mean it’s useless.

Thomas Alva Edison.

Have a great weekend everyone.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: +98 Down. NASDAQ: +192 Down. SP500: +127 Down. 

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