Tuesday, 14 July 2015

Insanity And Treason.



Baltic Dry Index. 900 +26    Brent Crude 57.24

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Albert Einstein.

Even by the cringingly low standards of continental Europe, what just took place Sunday and Monday in Brussels against Greece, was stunningly shocking. Germany dictated that the Greek Prime Minister commit treason against the hapless Greek serfs, and the Greek Prime Minister abjectly,  grovelingly complied. All the other German vassal states of Europe joined Germany in giving Greece a kicking. Most knew that they were only a heartbeat away from becoming the next Greece. In time most would need a big fat German friend.

But the EU is dead in its present form. Europe’s voters just saw that the Brussels Emperor hasn’t any new clothes. The wealth and jobs destroying European Monetary Union gets to stagger on to its next crisis on Greece, and in time to a crisis on Belgium, France, Italy and Spain. The EU, EC, and EMU have no future in the 21st century. To the youth generation and the pensioners, they are the problem not the solution. The Germanic euro, far from being the new reserve currency to replace the continental Europe hated American dollar, has now begun its glide path to an unstoppable crash in the French Alps.

Below, the insanity of Germanic Europe 2015. Everything falls when the next European crisis arrives. Hopefully Brexit arrives well before then.

"If the EU cannot resolve a small problem the size of Greece, what is the point of Europe?"

Romano Prodi, former chief of the European Commission, former Italy Prime Minister.

Europe's Insane Deal With Greece

Jul 13, 2015 11:24 AM EDT
After a 17-hour summit, Europe's leaders have reached a deal. If the Greek parliament passes a package of reforms by Wednesday night, the country's creditors will move forward with a third bailout on terms that are much stricter than previous proposals.

If the deal proceeds, it will avert the immediate chaos that Greece's uncontrolled exit from the euro area would entail, and enable European leaders to talk about something else for a while. Unfortunately, it does nothing to address the fundamental issues that have repeatedly landed Europe in crisis since 2009. Former German Economic Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg quipped that Europe hasn’t been kicking the can down the road, it's been kicking it up a hill and wondering why it keeps rolling back on its foot.

The core issue: Although the European Union can handle economies of widely varying types and levels of development, the euro area cannot. Greece’s gross domestic product per person was about half of Germany’s when it joined the euro in 2001. Since then, Greece’s competitiveness relative to Germany’s has slid by about 40 percent.

For a currency union to handle widely divergent economies, they must be deeply integrated across multiple dimensions. In the U.S., the average citizen of Mississippi makes just $20,618 a year, compared with $37,892 in Connecticut -- almost as big a gap as between Greece and Germany. Yet the U.S. doesn’t worry about a “Missexit,” because the country has various mechanisms for smoothing over differences among its states. The recent problems of Puerto Rico show the danger of being locked to a currency without such buffers.

The mechanisms include large fiscal transfers-- by necessity currency unions are transfer unions. Last year, 28 U.S. states sent the equivalent of 2.3 percent of their gross domestic product through the federal budget to the other 22 states. The biggest donor, Delaware, gave 21 percent. The biggest recipient, North Dakota, got 90 percent. By contrast, in 2011 Germany made a net contribution of 0.2 percent of its GDP to the EU budget, while Greece received 0.2 percent. Would German voters really support a tenfold jump in their contributions from 210 euros to 2,100 euros per person?

Large-scale fiscal transfers are not the only mechanism needed. Mississippi has probably run the equivalent of a current account deficit with New York ever since the Civil War. Every April, the banks in the Federal Reserve system reallocate assets and smooth over such regional imbalances. By contrast, when Greece runs a deficit with Germany -- for example, due to trade with Germany or capital flight from Greece -- its central bank accumulates debts to the Bundesbank indefinitely. The Bundesbank currently holds more than 500 billion euros in credits against other euro zone central banks. Again, would German taxpayers be willing to see the Bundesbank regularly write off some portion of those liabilities?

----Finally, the U.S. has a deep single market for products, services and labor and a true national banking union, all of which in Europe are only partially completed projects. The lack of truly integrated markets allowed real interest rates and inflation to diverge across the euro zone, leading to a loss of competitiveness and a credit boom and bust in the south.

Thus, the euro area is stuck in a dysfunctional netherworld between a fully integrated union and a more flexible exchange rate mechanism. So Greece has to become a lot more like Germany (unlikely), the euro area needs to become a lot more like the U.S. (also unlikely), or we’ll have another crisis (very likely).
More
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-13/europe-s-insane-deal-with-greece

Tsipras Sells Betrayal of His Campaign Promises to Greece

July 13, 2015 — 2:28 PM BST
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who came to office six months ago pledging to end austerity and restore “dignity” to the Greek people, now plans to sell an onerous bailout deal at home by arguing it could have been much worse.

That was the message Tsipras delivered Monday morning in Brussels after all-night talks with European leaders. They resulted in plans for large-scale asset sales, tax hikes and spending cuts, many of which must be approved by parliament right away. The agreement, he said, would avert “a collapse of the financial system” and, most importantly, keep Greece in the euro, which the premier calls his No. 1 goal.

Tsipras is seeking to implement measures even harsher than those rejected by Greek voters in the July 5 referendum on austerity -- which he himself called after the previous round of discussions. To succeed, he may need to begin by shoring up his own party ranks.

The plan, agreed to by Greece and the leaders of the 18 other euro countries, requires a level of austerity that Tsipras’s Coalition of the Radical Left, or Syriza, will find difficult to swallow.

Political Earthquake

Syriza’s landslide electoral victory represented a political earthquake in Greece, sending relations with European partners into disarray and serving as an inspiration to other left-wing parties across Europe.

On election night in late January, Tsipras told cheering crowds in central Athens that “continued kowtowing” to creditors would end. The landslide victory swept aside New Democracy, Greece’s traditional center-right party, which had urged voters to stay the course with existing bailout arrangements.

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