Thursday 2 July 2015

The Euro Nightmare!



Baltic Dry Index. 794 -06    Brent Crude 62.19

LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000.  Revised due to QE programs.

“We will never let the Greek people down. And we know the Greek people don’t want to let down the European Union.”

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed Luxembourg Prime Minister and ex-president of the Euro Group of Finance Ministers. Confessed liar. EC President.

Another day, and it’s still anyone’s guess as to which way the Greeks will vote on Sunday. Technically the voters are voting yea or nay on an austerity rescue plan that’s already lapsed, and officially isn’t on offer. Welcome to the increasingly bizarre, dying EUSSR, where a troupe of monkeys from Berlin Zoo are on standby to take over running the show in the final act. They couldn’t do any worse than Juncker, Draghi, Merkel and Lagarde.

Below the latest in the never ending Greek financial crisis, that can only end in a debt repudiation, since the outstanding debt, irrespective of the rights and wrongs of how it was incurred, if far beyond the ability of the Greek economy to repay. When Greece defaulted to the IMF, the ECB should and could have made the IMF whole. No one in continental Europe suggested any such thing. Any lingering Bilderberger dreams about the euro replacing the flawed fiat dollar, are getting replaced with the euro nightmare. What happens when the euro flies apart when Belgium, France, Italy and Spain become Greece?

Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest.

Mark Twain.

Europe Rebuffs Greek Advance as Poll Shows Voters Mull ‘Yes’

July 1, 2015 — 10:36 PM BST Updated on July 2, 2015 — 3:57 AM BST
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his creditors sparred heading into Sunday’s referendum on austerity as a poll suggested voters are inclined to accept deeper cuts.

As rationing of pensions began in the first week of capital controls, a survey showed more Greeks going against the government’s call to vote against creditors’ terms for more aid. A late compromise bid by Tsipras, who’s urging citizens to vote “no,” was quashed by the rest of the euro region, meaning negotiations would have to wait until after the plebiscite.

The battle lines ahead of the vote now appear immovable as Greeks adjust to financial misery with no prospect of their economic woes ending any time soon. The political posturing -- along with the expiration of its bailout deal and a missed payment to the International Monetary Fund -- masked the desperation as the economy sputtered and cash ran low.

“The clock cannot be simply set back to where it was Friday night before Tsipras broke off the talks,” Holger Schmieding, an analyst at Berenberg Bank, wrote to clients. “The old bailout is not expiring. It has expired. Getting a new agreement now will be more difficult.”

If it means staying in the currency bloc, the majority of Greeks may be willing to vote against the very government they elected five months ago to take a stand against austerity.

A GPO poll cited by euro2day.gr said 47 percent of people are leaning toward a “yes” vote, with those in the “no” camp not far behind with 43 percent. GPO interviewed 1,000 adults on Tuesday, four days after Tsipras’s call for referendum. There is a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
European stocks and bonds jumped on signs of a thaw in Athens. Asia followed them higher Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a third day, adding 0.2 percent by 11:22 a.m. in Tokyo. The euro was little changed in Asia trading.
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Greek Crisis Ripples Across European Companies as Markets Swing

July 1, 2015 — 12:01 AM BST Updated on July 1, 2015 — 9:53 AM BST
Greece’s financial turmoil rippled across corporate Europe as a market rout sabotaged planned bond sales and stock offerings and threw companies into crisis-response mode to deal with unsettled customers.
German real-estate investor ADO Properties and retailer CBR Fashion Holding shelved initial public offerings, citing volatile markets, while Adler Real Estate halted plans to sell a convertible bond. Travel companies Tui AG and Thomas Cook Plc fielded calls from travelers about access to cash after Greece introduced capital controls to prevent bank collapses, while Greece’s Titan Cement Co. suspended its dividend payout.
The crisis is “paralyzing decision-making in Europe,” threatening jobs and slowing economic growth, said Ulrich Spiesshofer, the chief executive officer of Swiss engineering company ABB Ltd. Many ABB clients are rattled by the situation as the Greek crisis adds to a slowdown in China and uncertainty about the economy in the U.S. and U.K., the CEO said.
While Greece represents only a small market for most major European companies and executives have been able to prepare for a direct fallout for years, the crisis has called into question the economic stability of the entire region sharing the euro. Greece’s financial collapse could spread instability to much more consequential economies like those of Italy, Spain, or even France.
“The real risk is that the crisis in Greece triggers broader contagion to the euro zone and global financial markets,” said Neil Shearing, an economist at Capital Economics in London.
Still, some European companies are actually preparing for increased Greek demand. Dutch dairy-products producer Royal FrieslandCampina NV said it’s increasing its supplies in the country as nervous Greeks stock up on basics like powdered milk and baby formula.
European tourists are meanwhile reconsidering their journeys to one of the continent’s most popular summertime destinations.
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Europe has suffered a reputational catastrophe in Greece

The eurozone has shown itself unable to manage its basic moral responsibilities

Oxi Day has totemic significance in Greece. It commemorates the defiant Greek “No” to Mussolini’s ultimatum in October 1940, and the heroic acceptance of war against a vastly bigger military machine.

It is the same word that will top the ballot sheet when Greeks vote in a snap referendum this Sunday on creditor demands, and prime minister Alexis Tsipras is not shy in evoking the same spirit of wartime resistance.

His speech to the nation on Wednesday night was peppered with talk of ultimata. He accused “extreme Right-wing circles” of forcing the closure of the Greek banks and the imposition of capital controls through liquidity asphyxiation.

He lashed out at “authoritarians” in charge of the IMF and EU institutions. He spoke of attempts to blackmail the Greek people. And he vowed to campaign against the creditor package - which, strictly speaking, is no longer on offer - deeming it the “destruction of Europe”.

Where this will take him, and take Greece, is anybody’s guess. The latest Efimerida ton Syntakton poll shows the “No” side leading by 54pc against 33pc for “yes”. But that lead - if it really exists - may evaporate as the ghastly consequences of financial collapse become clearer by the day.

Distraught pensioners have been gathering in small, tense crowds outside banks trying to withdraw their weekly allowance of €120 (£85). Many have not been paid. A throng of veterans protested outside the finance ministry on Wednesday morning, denouncing EU “dictatorship” and Mr Tsipras with equal fury.

Ambulances in parts of northern Greece have run out of fuel. The Greek Chamber of Commerce warns of “serious shortages” of basic goods and pharmaceutical supplies within days. The radical-Left Syriza government is skating on very thin ice.

If Europe’s creditor powers have succeeded in bringing Greece to its knees, they have paid a fearful price themselves. As Pyrrhus said after the battle of Asculum: “Another such victory, and we will be utterly ruined.”

We can already see that the EU itself has suffered a reputational catastrophe on several fronts. This is of far greater importance in the sweep of events than daily twists and turns in Athens.

It has brought about a state of affairs where a member of its own eurozone family has become the first developed country in history to default to the IMF.

Let us be clear what this means. The currency union itself is delinquent. The rich countries of northern Europe are refusing to pay African, Asian and Latin American states. Blaming it on Greece alone does not wash.

The eurozone has shown itself unable to manage its basic moral responsibilities. Russian president Vladimir Putin could hardly resist his own wicked dig, professing “great concern” over the EU’s vanishing credibility.
More
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11712098/Europe-has-suffered-a-reputational-catastrophe-in-Greece.html

In Paris they simply stared when I spoke to them in French; I never did succeed in making those idiots understand their language.

Mark Twain.

At the Comex silver depositories Wednesday final figures were: Registered 59.69 Moz, Eligible 124.30 Moz, Total 183.99 Moz. 

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.
Today, how not to get involved with gold.

Murder hunt launched after death of infamous criminal John 'Goldfinger' Palmer

Convicted comnan, John 'Goldfinger' Palmer was initially thought to have died as a result of natural causes, but police now confirm they are treating his death as a murder inquiry

By Martin Evans and Gordon Rayner, Crime Correspondent 10:00PM BST 01 Jul 2015
John “Goldfinger” Palmer, one of Britain’s most notorious criminals, has become the latest underworld figure to fall victim to the “curse of Brink’s-MAT” after he was shot dead at his home.

Palmer, who was tried for melting down gold bars stolen in the £26 million theft of bullion and jewellery from a warehouse at Heathrow Airport, is the eighth person with close links to the 1983 robbery to be shot dead.

The 64-year-old was initially reported to have died of natural causes when his body was found at his home in South Weald, near Brentwood, Essex, on June 24, but Essex Police have now launched a murder inquiry after a post-mortem examination found he had been shot in the chest.

Palmer, who was once described as Britain’s richest criminal with a fortune of £300m, was jailed at the Old Bailey in 2001 over his involvement in a vast timeshare swindle, which cost thousands of British holidaymakers their life savings.

But he was best known for his connection to the Brink’s-MAT heist, for which he was tried in 1987. He was said to have melted down bullion from the robbery in his back garden, but he denied knowing the bullion was stolen and was acquitted.

The Brink’s-MAT robbery was carried out by a gang of six, who had expected to find £3 million in cash but instead discovered three tonnes of gold in the warehouse owned by an American security company.

Only three men – Micky McAvoy, Brian Robinson and his brother-in-law Anthony Black, a security guard at the warehouse – were ever convicted of carrying out the robbery.

Because the gang had no expertise in handling gold, they had to recruit other underworld figures to help them dispose of the metal and launder their money.

Inevitably, gangsters connected with the robbery fell out with each other and violence followed.
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Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable.

Mark Twain.

Solar  & Related Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? A quantum computer next?

Hot July to Cut Power Supply in Europe as Temperatures Increase

July 1, 2015 — 10:34 AM BST
The European hot spell that’s set to push temperatures in France to their highest in nine years may last throughout the month, potentially cutting power supply.

High pressure is forecast to bring warm air into western Europe in July, with the hottest weather in France and Germany this week, according to MetraWeather. The heat will force Electricite de France SA to limit output at some of its power plants from Thursday, according to French grid operator Reseau de Transport d’Electricite SA.

Warm weather is boosting electricity use for air conditioners and fans, while potentially limiting generation as nuclear, coal, gas and solar plants become less efficient. France is set for its most intense heatwave since 2006, according to Meteo-France. High temperatures in 2003 resulted in more than 14,000 deaths in France and caused billions of euros of losses for Europe’s agriculture and forest industries.

“The heat during this week is likely to boost cooling demand and maybe it will cause problems with cooling water in France,” Andreas Gassner, a meteorologist at MeteoGroup in Appenzell, Switzerland, said by e-mail Tuesday. “Expected above-normal temperatures over most of July will increase use of air conditioning further.”

French power for July delivery climbed to a record 37.90 euros ($42.15) a megawatt-hour on Tuesday, the highest month-ahead price since March, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. German month-ahead power increased to 33.15 euros, the most since February 27, the data show.

Power Cuts

July will be warmer than usual, according to all seven forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg. Temperatures in Germany are predicted to climb to near an all-time high of 40.2 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) on July 4, 10 degrees more than average, according to MeteoGroup. Cazaux, France, reached 40 degrees Tuesday, beating the daily and monthly record for June, according to WSI Corp.

About 20,000 homes in Vannes, France, have been without power since 7:15 a.m. because of the heat, RTE said Wednesday by e-mail. Several incidents occurred late Tuesday in Pays de Loire, Brittany and lower Normandy after high temperatures affected instruments used to measure power flows on the network, the grid said.

Power plants will lose some efficiency and be forced to cut output when cooling water from rivers and lakes climbs above 30 degrees, according to Vattenfall AB, Germany’s third-biggest power generator.

“A long period of high temperatures and no rain could lead to the situation in which we have limited water flow in the rivers,” Helga Norrby, a Vattenfall spokeswoman, said by e-mail. “We don’t expect any problems, because the water temperature is currently far below the mentioned 30 degrees.”

RWE AG and EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG weren’t experiencing any problems with their power plants due to the hot weather, the companies said in separate e-mails.

Solar output in Germany is forecast to climb to 24.2 gigawatts on Wednesday, compared with a record 25.9 gigawatts in April, according to data from Bloomberg and European Energy Exchange AG. A nuclear reactor typically generates 1 gigawatt, enough to supply 2 million European households.
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A human being has a natural desire to have more of a good thing than he needs.

Mark Twain.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: +98 Down. NASDAQ: +192 Down. SP500: +127 Down. 

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